06July2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Stocks Rise After FOMC Minutes Released With The Fed Reaffirming Commitment To Bringing Down Inflation, Wall Street Nosedives During Last 30 Minutes Of Session

July 6, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 70 points or 0.23%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.35%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.36%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 99 down 0.93%,
  • USD $107.03 up 0.51%,
  • Gold $1741 up 0.03%,
  • Bitcoin $20301 down 0.58% – Session Low 19784,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.926% up 0.115%

Today’s Economic Releases:

The JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER  report shows job openings decreased 6.9 percent in May 2022. Econmatters uses the change in job openings to forecast the direction of the economy – and this report is showing the economy is slowing.

The Federal Reserve released its minutes for the FOMC meeting on June 14/15, 2022. The bottom line is that a rate increase of three-quarters of a percent is on the table for the next meeting – and this should not be good news for the markets (although markets rose today). Note that the rest of the minutes discussed an economy that was improving but it looks now that the economy was slowing.

In discussing potential policy actions at upcoming meetings, participants continued to anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate to achieve the Committee’s objectives. In particular, participants judged that an increase of 50 or 75 basis points would likely be appropriate at the next meeting. Participants concurred that the economic outlook warranted moving to a restrictive stance of policy, and they recognized the possibility that an even more restrictive stance could be appropriate if elevated inflation pressures were to persist.

The ISM Services survey declined marginally in June 2022 from 55.9 to 55.3 – any value above 50 represents economic expansion. This indicates that the services portion of the economy has been stable – and services represent 2/3rds of the economy.

A potential recession flag is when the 2-year Treasury has a higher yield than the 10-year – and this inversion has been going on for the last two days. At the very least it can be interpreted that the market sees short-term high inflation.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Global Supply For Battery Metals Is Running Tight As Demand Surges
  • China Continues To Buy Record Levels Of Russian Crude
  • Coinbase: Oil And Tech Stocks Are As Risky As Crypto
  • Mortgage demand sinks even as rates drop
  • Bonds, Bullion, & Black Gold Drop, Dollar Pops As Fed Confirms Hawkish Stance
  • Recession Is Priced In; Stagflation Is Not
  • Schumer provides ‘rock-solid evidence’ that Democrats will push forward with partisan tax and spending bill, analyst says
  • The New York Post: 4 in 10 Americans say they’re ‘struggling’ financially amid high inflation and rising gas prices

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 6, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks

July 6, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

This is still an experimental article (we are working to be sure all the images update)

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s  NWS Forecast:

...Showers and thunderstorms with excessive rainfall and severe weather
possible through midweek from the Northern Rockies and High Plains to the
Mid Atlantic and Southeast...

...Dangerous heat and humidity to continue from parts of the central and
southern Plains to the Mid Atlantic and Southeast...

05July2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Gaps Down 2% At the Opening Bell And Rallies Back To Mixed, WTI Crude Hit Hard Plunging Below $100 As The U.S. Dollar Strengthens And Recession Worries Continue

July 5, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 129 points or 0.42%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.75%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.16%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 100, down 9.81%,
  • USD $106.57 up 1.44%,
  • Gold $1767 down 1.00%,
  • Bitcoin $20483 up 3.38% – Session Low 19320,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.825% down 0.079%

Today’s Economic Releases:

CoreLogic’s May 2022 National Home Price report shows prices increased year over year by 20.2%. Their home price forecast predicts that home prices will increase from May 2022 to May 2023 and on a year-over-year basis by 5.0%. According to CoreLogic, “rising mortgage rates and affordability challenges are expected to cool buyer demand.”

New orders for manufactured goods improved in May 2022 to 13.2% year-over-year growth. Manufacturers’ inventories have also grown to 11.3% year-over-year.

 

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Frances Nuclear Woes Will Worsen Europes Power Crisis
  • Oil Billionaire: There’s Only One Fix For Inflation
  • Ford reports a slight uptick in quarterly sales that miss analysts’ expectations
  • Luxury car buyers shell out more than ever with ‘car payments that look more like mortgage payments’
  • Crude Crashes, Yield Curve Inverts, Bonds & The Dollar Surge
  • What Does A Catastrophic First Half Mean For The Rest Of The Year (Spoiler: Nothing Good)
  • Bond Report: 2-, 10-year Treasury yields post biggest four-session drops in two years as curve inverts on U.S. growth fears
  • Futures Movers: U.S. oil prices drop below $100 to end at the lowest since April on a strong dollar, fears of a recession

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 5, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks

July 5, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

This is still an experimental article so it has some problems that need to be worked on

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s  NWS Forecast.:

...Showers and thunderstorms with excessive rainfall and severe weather
possible early to mid week from the Northern High Plains to the East
Coast...

...Hot in the Southern & Central Plains and Southeast while milder
temperatures are expected in portions of the West/Northwest and
Northeast...

Daily Short-Term and Intermediate Term Weather Forecast – July 4, 2022

July 4, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

This is still an experimental article so it has some problems that need to be worked on especially the tropical section.

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s  NWS Forecast.:

...Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms possible across northern
tier...

...West cools down as Great Plains into Midwest warm up...

...Critical fire weather conditions to persist across the Great Basin this
weekend...

Daily Short-Term and Intermediate Term Weather Forecast – July 3, 2022

July 3, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

This is still an experimental article so it has some problems that need to be worked on especially the tropical section.

Here is what we are paying attention to this afternoon (Saturday) and the next two days from the Saturday afternoon NWS Forecast.:

...Tropical Storm Colin to track from the Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic
Coast today before moving offshore on Sunday...

...Wet weather, isolated Flash Flooding and Severe thunderstorms possible
across the Southeast quarter of the nation and from the Central to
Northern Plains into the Northern Rockies, Northwest and from portions of
the Southwest into the Southern Rockies...

...Areas extending from the West Coast inland through the Great Basin and
Northern Rockies will have cooler than average temperature  while the
Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and Great Lakes will be warmer
than average temperatures...

...Critical fire weather conditions to persist across the Great Basin this
weekend..

01July2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Major Indexes Opened Down This Morning, Then Trended Upwards To Close Sharply Higher, Wall Street Markets Closed For Observance Of The Fourth Of July Holiday On Monday

July 1, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 322 points or 1.05%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.90%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.06%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 108, up 1.91%,
  • USD $105.15 up 0.39%,
  • Gold $1805 down 0.06%,
  • Bitcoin $19325 up 2.31% – Session Low 18673,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.889% down 0.085%
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -3 to 750 Canada +12 to 166

Today’s Economic Releases:

Headlines say construction spending declined insignificantly in May 2022 month-over-month. The year-over-year inflation adjusted (red line on chart below) and current dollar numbers (blue line on chart below) both show this sector is in contraction.

The Institute For Supply Management (ISM) says manufacturing grew in June 2022 but declined relative to the previous month.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Oil Should Stay In Triple Digits: Analyst
  • U.S. Rig Count Slips
  • Walmart is working on a response to the Supreme Court’s abortion decision, the CEO says in memo
  • GM’s quarterly sales fall but show improvement from the beginning of year
  • Self-driving cars from GM’s Cruise block San Francisco intersection in the latest problem for autonomous vehicles
  • Inflation ‘Off’, Recession ‘On’: Stocks Purged As Bonds & The Dollar Surged
  • Rail strikes: No rush to call for more action, says union
  • Want to enter D-Street now? Read this before you hop on the buy-on-dip bandwagon
  • Chip sector looks at 10% drop on week as signs point to declining demand

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

NOAA Updates July Outlook – June 30, 2022 – Not Much Change – Some Ocean Indicators are Surprising

July 1, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 2:30 am EDT July 2, 2022 to incorporate the Week 3 – 4 Outlook which suggests that the second half of July will not be as cool in the Northwest but perhaps less warm elsewhere and the Monsoon may be less robust but some other areas will be less dry.

At the end of every month, NOAA updates their Mid-Month Outlook for the following month which in this case is July. They also issue a Drought Outlook for the following month and update the three-month Drought Outlook. We are reporting on that tonight. The updated Outlook is very similar to the Mid-Month Outlook. This is surprising since the Mid-Month Outlook was issued two weeks ago and there usually are more changes in that period of time.

For temperature, the shape and location of the large dry anomaly have changed a bit. The cool anomaly in the Northwest is now slightly larger. For precipitation, the area where an above-average Monsoon is forecasted is a little larger and shifted a bit to include more of New Mexico. there is a new small dry anomaly

We provide partial-month Outlooks for the first 22 days of July which allows us to somewhat assess if the Monthly Outlook is consistent with the partial-month Outlooks and it generally is. But we will not be able to answer that question definitively until the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued tomorrow.  We will provide an update at that time.

We also provide enough information for readers to understand any changes from the Mid-Month Outlook and we try to figure out why these changes were made.  Many of the changes are explained in the NOAA discussion which is included in the article. The partial-month forecasts that we have provided show how NOAA thinks this will play out as the weather pattern evolves during July.

There is also a discussion of the ENSO condition which is ever so slightly different than what NOAA used to develop the Mid-Month Outlook. But there is a fairly strong signal that this La Nina will end in late winter 2022/2023. The impacts on weather may not be noticed until Spring. But that is just the current forecast and can change.

We have also begun our tropical storm coverage. Yes, it is that time of the year. We are also providing special coverage of the Monsoon by providing the links to those daily updates.