August 5, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Monsoonal rains over the western U.S. expected to shift eastward as
thunderstorms ahead of a cold front could bring heavy rain into the upper
Midwest on Saturday...

...Heat expected to spread across the northern tier while remaining in
place over the Northeast for the next couple of days...

...Cool air spreading into the Pacific Northwest will lower the fire
threat across the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains...

04August2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street’s Three Major Indexes See-Sawed Across The Unchanged Line In Choppy Trading To End The Session Mixed, Prices At The Pump Continue To Plunge

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 86 points or 0.26%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.41%,
  • S&P 500 down 0.08%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $88 down 2.90%,
  • USD $105.93 down 0.42%,
  • Gold $1793 down 0.54%,
  • Bitcoin $22,525 down 3.84% – Session Low 22,469,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.663% down 0.085%

Today’s Economic Releases:

Tomorrow the BLS will issue the employment report for July 2022. Small businesses across the country continue to raise wages to keep employees and fill a historically high level of open positions, according to NFIB’s monthly jobs report. Seasonally adjusted, 49% of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, down one point from June and down two points from May’s 48-year record high. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg says:

Hiring has never been harder for small business owners. The labor shortage remains frustrating for many small business owners as they continue to manage inflation and other economic headwinds. Owners are adjusting business operations where they can to help mitigate lost sales opportunities due to staffing shortages.

The U.S. monthly international trade deficit decreased in June 2022. Exports increased whilst imports decreased. In normal times, slowing imports suggests a slowing economy.

The 4-week moving average of initial unemployment insurance weekly claims increased from the previous week’s revised average – and continues to moderately increase.

U.S.-based employers announced 25,810 cuts in July, a 20.6% decrease from the 32,517 cuts announced in June. It is 36.3% higher than the 18,942 cuts announced in the same month last year, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Prices At The Pump Continue To Plunge, But Stronger Demand Could Halt The Trend
  • Burger King parent says more customers are redeeming coupons and loyalty rewards
  • Nikola’s revenue tops expectations on the delivery of 48 electric trucks
  • Restaurant Brands International earnings top estimates, fueled by stronger Tim Hortons, Burger King sales
  • Walmart lays off corporate employees after slashing forecast
  • Indian investors hunt for value in US stocks amid rate hikes
  • From food to fuel: What sparked the transformation in the sugar industry?

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

August 4, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Monsoonal rains across the Southwest is forecast to expand northward by
Friday as heavy rain and possibly severe thunderstorms move across the
Great Lakes/Midwest through tonight...

...Heat is expected to build across the northern Plains and the Northeast
for the next couple of days...

...Fire Weather Threat to continue from the Northwest into the northern
High Plains..

03August2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Stocks Rally Reversing Two-Day Slide, Oil Prices Fall, Ford Reports Big Jump In July Sales

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 416 points or 1.29%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 2.59%,
  • S&P 500 up 1.56%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $91 down 3.40%,
  • USD $106.39 up 0.04%,
  • Gold $1782 down 0.402%,
  • Bitcoin $23,431 up 2.23% – Session Low 22,719,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.712% down 0.029%

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services In July 2022 registered 56.7% – higher than the previous month’s 55.3%.

The U.S. Census June 2022 full report on manufacturers’ orders stated “New orders for manufactured goods in June, up thirteen of the last fourteen months, increased $10.8 billion or 2.0 percent“. Unfortunately, this data is not inflation adjusted and the inflation-adjusted data continues to show that manufacturing has been in decline for the last 3 years.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Oil Prices Fall To $90, But Its Not Enough For Biden
  • Ford reports big jump in July sales, including for trucks and electric vehicles
  • Starbucks earnings beat Wall Street estimates, fueled by U.S. demand for cold drinks
  • Explosion In Retail Buying Revealed As Source Of Latest Market Meltup, Tesla Stock Surge
  • Crypto: Michael Saylor drops Microstrategy CEO role — Here’s what it means for bitcoin
  • Market Extra: This is where emerging-markets guru Mark Mobius sees ‘opportunities’ — and why U.S. stocks haven’t bottomed

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

August 3, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Monsoonal Rains to continue across much of the Southwest U.S. as heavy
rain and possibly severe thunderstorms move across the Great Lakes/Midwest
during the next couple of days...

...Some relief from the prolonged heatwave across the Northwest but record
high temperatures are possible on Thursday over the northern High Plains
and parts of the Northeast...

...Fire Weather Threat to continue from the Northwest into the northern
High Plains..

02August2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Another Session Of Financial Uncertainty Results In A Down Session

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 402 points or 1.23%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.16%,
  • S&P 500 down 0.67%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $94 up 0.362%,
  • USD $106.20 up 0.10%,
  • Gold $1761 up 0.07%,
  • Bitcoin $23,001 up 0.10% – Session Low 22,697,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.761 up 1.56%

Today’s Economic Releases:

The CoreLogic Home prices (HPI) increased year-over-year by 18.3% in June 2022 and on a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 0.6%.  The CoreLogic forecast indicates that home prices will increase on a year-over-year basis by 4.3% from June 2022 to June 2023.

The number of job openings decreased to 10.7 million on the last business day of June 2022. Hires and total separations were little changed at 6.4 million and 5.9 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (4.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.3 million) were little changed.

The New York Fed’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The Report shows an increase in total household debt in the second quarter of 2022, increasing by $312 billion (2%) to $16.15 trillion.

The signs from the releases today are of a slowing economy. Remember the 2007 recession was offically recognized one year after it began. If the economy continues to slow, the beginning recession marker would be in 1Q2022.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Gas Shortage Sparks Energy Security Fears In Asia
  • Venezuela’s Oil Exports Drop By More than A Third In July
  • Mall owners say retailers are still opening stores in spite of recession fears
  • Molson Coors stock falls as company cites split in consumer spending on beer
  • Ford stock notches its best month since the Great Recession — and keeps rising
  • LA County Removes Citizenship Requirements For Government Jobs
  • Crypto: Bitcoin has already bottomed, has a fair value of $40,000, says Anthony Scaramucci

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

NOAA Updates their August 2022 Outlook on July 31, 2022

Short-term improvement in drought for August.

At the end of every month, NOAA updates their Outlook for the following month which in this case is August. They also issue a Drought Outlook for the following month. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for August and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We highlighted some of the important changes within the NOAA Discussion.

Of significant interest is the Drought Outlook for August. It is a big improvement but unfortunately, it probably is a one-month event. We have also included four months of Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks and also a map showing the year-to-date precipitation in the West. We also included a Monsoon related Podcast that is very interesting.

August 2, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Heavy Rains and Flash Flooding possible across the Central
Appalachians...

...Monsoonal Rains to continue across much of the Southwest U.S., posing a
Flash Flood risk...

...Some Relief from Record High Temperatures across the Northwest...

...Fire Weather Threat to continue from the Northwest into the Northern
High Plains..

01August2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Rode A Bucking Bronco Traversing The Unchanged Line Before The BTFDers Ran Out Of Money, The Three Main Indexes Closed In The Red Culminating an Interesting Investing Session

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 47 points or 0.14%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.18%,
  • S&P 500 down 0.28%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 94 down 4.50%,
  • USD $105.43 down 0.47%,
  • Gold $1771 down 0.07%,
  • Bitcoin $22,988 down 3.78% – Session Low 22,891,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.595% down 0.47%

Today’s Economic Releases:

Construction spending during June 2022 was down 1.1% month-over-month and up 8.3% year-over-year. During the first six months of this year, construction spending is up 10.7% over the same period in 2021. But folks, since there is inflation, construction spending is contracting in 2022 and is down year-over-year – see the red line in the graph below:

According to the Institute of Supply Management, manufacturing activity was little changed in July 2022 – and remains at a level modestly in expansion and remains on an 18-month decline.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Today’s Energy Crisis Spells Disaster For The Global Economy
  • Home prices cooled at a record pace in June, according to housing data firm
  • Mortgage rates fall sharply after negative GDP report and Fed’s latest hike
  • Ford CEO offers more clues about the automaker’s ambitious electric vehicle plans
  • “No One Is Positioned For Any Good News:” Record Shorting In Tech Ensures ‘Most Hated Rally’ Will Continue
  • Bond Report: Treasury yields fall in choppy trade to start August
  • Living With Climate Change: Americans want EV tax incentives. But are they ready to lose gas cars forever?

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.