What is the key difference between the U.S. and the People’s Republic of China (PRC)?
They were born differently, almost totally opposite to each other! The U.S. was founded for the super-rich (aka “the top 1%” in today’s terms) via the American Revolution, whereas the PRC was founded for the poor via the Chinese Communist Revolution.
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in July 2022 were down 1.3% month over-month and 1.1% year-over-year. Housing starts were down 9.6% month-over-month and is 8.1year-over-year. Housing completions were up 1.1% year-over-year and up 3.5% year-over-year. Although the numbers are slowing, they are still above pre-pandemic levels.
In July 2022 industrial production increased 0.6% month-over-month with manufacturing up 0.7%; mining increased 0.7%; and utilities decreased 0.8%. On a year-over-year basis industrial production was up 3.9% wth manufacturing up 3.2%, mining up 7.9%, and utilities up 2.2%. Capacity utilization is up 1.3% year-over-year.
CoreLogic shows that in June 2022, single-family rent prices remained elevated, up 13.4% from one year earlier, but have continued to relax compared to growth seen earlier this year. This deceleration could be partially due to worries over an impending economic slowdown. June also saw trends shift away from pandemic-era preferences as attached rentals growth (13.2%) slightly outpaced detached rentals price growth (12.8%). Molly Boesel, principal economist at CoreLogic stated:
While the annual growth in single-family rents is nearly double that of a year ago and is still near a record level, price growth began decelerating in June. Nationwide, both year-over-year and month-over-month growth were slower in June than they were earlies year, and roughly half of the largest U.S. metro areas experienced a slowdown in annual growth in June.
A summary of headlines we are reading today:
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
...Monsoonal showers and storms will keep a slight risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the central Rockies to the Four Corners region for the next couple of days... ...A low pressure wave will likely bring heavy to excessive rainfall across the mid to lower Mississippi Valley through Wednesday... ...A tropical low pressure system could bring additional heavy downpours up the Rio Grande Valley into southwestern Texas through tonight into Tuesday... ...A slight risk of severe thunderstorms is forecast for parts of the Mid-Atlantic through this evening... ...Heat Advisories remain in effect for parts of the southern Plains/lower Mississippi Valley into this evening as heat intensifies over the interior West Coast over the next couple of days... ...A coastal storm could impact parts of New England later on Wednesday...
Business activity declined sharply in the August 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index plummeted forty-two points to -31.3. This is definitely a sign of a slowing economy, but one terrible month of data does not a recession make.
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A summary of headlines we are reading today:
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
...Monsoonal moisture to continues an excessive rain threat across much of the Southwest into the Rockies... ...Heavy to locally excessive rain also likely across parts of south Texas into Monday and parts of the Plains/Mississippi Valley Monday-Tuesday... ...Anomalous heat to continue across the central/southern Plains with heat also building across the interior West...
NOAA updates many of their weather outlooks and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. On Fridays, they issue a week 3 – 4 outlook which is farther out than the typical 10-day forecast and the discussion is excellent. So we have decided to issue a weekly special report on Fridays.
When the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued, we have a 28-day view of the future. It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts. Since we are publishing this article on Sunday we only have a 26-day view of the future. Sorry about that.
We have also taken a look at the state temperature and precipitation rankings for July and Year to Date (YTD). It is not a surprise that they differ. We provided that information in a recent article but thought it useful to repeat it here for those who did not happen to read the other article. There is value in relating the future outlook to the prior month and to the YTD.
...Heavy to excessive rainfall likely across much of the Southwest/Intermountain West, as well as across south Texas... ...Much above normal temperatures likely this weekend across the central Plains, with a warming trend for parts of the West...
On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e. La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted slightly from last month. The forecast had called for the La Nina to continue but weaken during the Summer (which it did not). Then it is forecast to strengthen in the Fall and Winter. The timing is shown in the NOAA discussion and the IRI probability analysis.
It certainly looks like this La Nina will end early in 2023. But there is really no sound scientific basis for this prediction. From Emily Beckers’s post
If La Niña does decay to neutral in January–March 2023, it would be only the 4th time in the 24 La Niña winters we have on record.
Nevertheless, that is what both NOAA and I think will happen. But it could happen a bit earlier or a bit later.
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) was born on October 1, 1949, as the result of the Chinese Communist Revolution (What is the Chinese Communist Revolution, anyway?). Its life can be simply divided into three periods as follows:
Let me highlight each …
...Monsoonal moisture to increase the threat for localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding across parts of the Southwest and Intermountain West... ...Tropical moisture likely to bring heavy rainfall to parts of south Texas this weekend... ...Much above normal temperatures expected from the northern High Plains to the central Plains...
