“Synopsis:“La Niña conditions are present and are expected to persist through February-April 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (60% chance). “
So we are no longer in ENSO Neutral but officially in La Nina (but we may not stay in La Nina long enough for it to be recorded as an official La Nina for historical purposes.)
On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA (really their Climate Prediction Center CPC) issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. NOAA now describes their conclusion as “ENSO Alert System Status: La Nina”
It should increase the reliability of the Seasonal Outlook to be issued next Thursday. But will it?
We have included a very interesting ENSO Blog Post by Emily Becker.
“The dynamical models in the IRI plume continue to predict a weak La Niña during the winter seasons, as indicated by the Niño-3.4 index values less than -0.5°C . The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predicts slightly cooler SST anomalies with La Niña persisting through February-April 2025. The forecast team favors the NMME guidance, predicting weak La Niña conditions through the early spring before transitioning to ENSO-neutral. Weak La Niña conditions are less likely to result in conventional winter/spring impacts, though predictable signals can still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC’s seasonal outlooks). In summary, La Niña conditions are present and are expected to persist through February-April 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (60% chance).”
Below is the middle paragraph from the discussion last month.
“The dynamical models in the IRI plume continue to predict a weak and a short duration La Niña, as indicated by the Niño-3.4 index values less than -0.5°C. This prediction is also reflected in the latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), which continues to predict slightly cooler SSTs and weak La Nina conditions. The forecast team leaned toward predicting an eventual onset of weak and short-lived La Nina conditions, based on the model guidance and current atmospheric anomalies. Weak La Niña conditions would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC’s seasonal outlooks). In summary, La Niña conditions are most likely to emerge in November 2024 – January 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely by March-May 2025 (61% chance).”
{Author’s Note: Has anything really changed?]
We now provide additional details.
CPC Probability Distribution
Here are the new forecast probabilities. The probabilities are for three-month periods e.g. NDJ stands for November/December/January.
Here is the forecast from last month.
The analysis this month and last month are fairly similar. But a future El Nino is a bit more in the picture.
Some will need to click on “Read More” to read the rest of this article.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 12Z Sat Jan 11 2025 – 12Z Mon Jan 13 2025
…A return to dangerous fire weather concerns for southern California beginning later today…
…Moderate to locally heavy snow for the parts of the northern to central Rockies…
…Below average high temperatures for much of the lower 48 this weekend after departure of southern Mid-Atlantic winter storm…
A significant winter storm that brought widespread impacts to much of the
South over the past couple of days will quickly move away from the East
Coast this morning, leaving light snow showers in its wake for the central
Appalachians and New England. High pressure and quieter weather will
settle into locations east of the Mississippi River through Sunday morning
but more rain is expected for the central Gulf Coast Sunday into Monday as
low pressure organizes in the Gulf of Mexico, sending anomalous moisture
northward. Temperatures will be cold today for the southern/southeastern
U.S. with high temperature departures running 10 to 20 degrees below
average. Below average temperatures will also extend into the Midwest,
Ohio Valley and Northeast but Maine will be close to average for
mid-January. Some moderation of the cold temperatures will occur for
Sunday for the South and East, except for New England which will be near
to above average.
Out West, an upper level trough will continue to advance eastward from the
central Rockies today with moderate to locally heavy snow showers
continuing through Saturday night for northern sections of the Great Basin
and northern/central Rockies in its wake via northwesterly to northerly
flow behind the upper trough axis. Snow will continue near a strong
frontal boundary in central Montana on Sunday but subside elsewhere across
much of the West. By Monday morning, localized snowfall accumulations of 1
to 2 feet are expected for portions of central and southern Montana into
the Big Horn Mountains of Wyoming.
High Temperatures across the West will generally be below average this
weekend while temperatures along the West Coast remain near average
through the weekend. The exception to colder than average high
temperatures for the lower 48 will be in and around the Upper Great Lakes
which will lie on the warm side of low pressure tracking across the
north-central U.S. with colder air filtering into the region behind the
low on Monday.
In southern California, a return to heightened fire weather conditions
will return later today after a brief lull from Friday night. High
pressure will increase across the Great Basin today as a surge of colder
air moves into the region behind a cold front which is forecast to move
into Mexico Sunday morning. Gusty offshore winds along the coast of
southern California support a Critical Risk area for Saturday as
highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center, with these dangerous
conditions continuing into Monday.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 12Z Fri Jan 10 2025 – 12Z Sun Jan 12 2025
…Critical fire weather conditions will continue across Southern California through at least this morning…
…A significant winter storm will continue to bring heavy snow and disruptive ice across much of the South through Saturday morning…
…Pacific Storm to bring lower elevation rain/mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest…Great Basin and Rockies through Saturday…
Modified arctic air combined with a moisture-laden area of low pressure
along the Gulf Coast will continue to allow for a broad area of winter
weather impacts from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast today
into early Saturday morning. Areas of light to moderate snow will
translate east from eastern Oklahoma, southern Missouri and Arkansas this
morning into and across the Tennessee Valley, eventually reaching the
Mid-Atlantic region tonight. Snowfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are
expected from near Memphis into the central Appalachians. Sleet and
freezing rain will affect locations just south of the snowfall, with ice
accumulations locally in excess of 0.25 inches from far northeastern
Alabama into northern Georgia and upstate South Carolina. Light snowfall
accumulations (1 to 3 inches) are anticipated farther north from the Ohio
Valley into northern portions of the Mid-Atlantic region. Below average
temperatures from the south-central to southeastern U.S. will moderate
into the weekend but remain roughly 5 to 15 degrees below average on
Saturday into Sunday.
Across the western U.S., strong high pressure over the Great Basin will
begin to weaken during the day today, but Critical fire weather conditions
will continue over coastal locations of Southern California through the
remainder of this morning with localized gusts to near 60 mph. While wind
gusts are likely to weaken into this afternoon and evening, remnant gusty
winds and low relative humidities will continue dangerous conditions into
the afternoon and evening.
Elsewhere across the western U.S., a quick moving cold front will sweep
across the Northwest and Great Basin today, bringing coastal rain to the
Pacific Northwest and mountain snow to the Cascades, northern Great Basin
into the northern and central Rockies. Low pressure associated with the
western U.S. storm system will reach the northern Plains and Upper Midwest
on Saturday/Saturday night, resulting in light (1 to 3 inch) accumulations
for eastern Montana, North Dakota into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 12Z Thu Jan 09 2025 – 12Z Sat Jan 11 2025
…Decreasing light lake-effect snow downwind from the Lower Great Lakes on Thursday…
…A developing Winter Storm will produce snow and rain/freezing rain, icing, over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday and over the Lower Mississippi Valley to the southern Mid-Atlantic on Friday…
…Light snow over parts of the Upper Midwest on Thursday; Light to moderate snow over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and light snow over parts of the Northeast on Friday…
…There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of Southern California on Thursday…
A developing winter storm will move out of Northern Mexico, advancing
eastward to the Western Gulf Coast by Thursday evening and to the Central
Gulf Coast by Friday morning. The storm will move northeastward to western
Florida by Friday evening and to the southern Mid-Atlantic Coast by
Saturday.
The system will produce a swath of heavy snow along with ice, freezing
rain, from the Southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic by Saturday.
Snowfall totals from 6-8 inches will develop from southeast Oklahoma
through western North Carolina. A quarter inch of ice, freezing rain, will
occur from the Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley. On Friday,
icing, freezing rain, will move over parts of the Southeast, Southern
Appalachians, and southern Mid-Atlantic, with amounts around a tenth of an
inch.
A large area of moderate winter weather impacts will be associated with
the storm. Some impacts are widespread closures, treacherous travel,
scattered power outages, and downed branches expected from the Red River
Valley and southern Ozarks through the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee
Valley, and Southern Appalachians. Some of the heaviest snowfall will be
over the Tennessee Valley, which will be 6 inches on Friday.
Meanwhile, on Thursday, strong high pressure over parts of the Northern
Intermountain Region and Great Basin will set up Santa Ana winds over
Southern California. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Critical Risk of fire
weather over parts of Southern California. Winds of 20 to 40 mph, with
stronger winds in the terrain, low relative humidity, and dry fuels have
contributed to the dangerous conditions.
Moreover, on Thursday, exiting upper-level energy and developing weak
upper-level ridging over the Great Lakes will create waning light
lake-effect snow and upslope snow over parts of the Lower Great Lakes and
the Northeast that will end by Friday morning.
Furthermore, upper-level energy over the Northern Intermountain Region
southward to the Southwest will develop a front extending from the
Northern/Central Plains to the Southern Rockies that will move eastward to
the Upper Great Lakes to the Southern Plains by Friday morning. The
boundary will begin to dissipate by Friday evening. However, the
associated upper-level trough will extend from the Great Lakes
southwestward to Northeastern Mexico by Saturday.
On Thursday, the system will produce light snow over parts of the Upper
Midwest to the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley. In addition, on
Friday, the boundary will deliver light to moderate snow over parts of the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians. Additionally, light snow
will develop over parts of the Northeast.
In the meantime, overnight Thursday, a new front will move onshore over
the Pacific Northwest and race eastward to the Northern Plains to the
Great Basin by Saturday. The system will trigger coastal rain and
higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Friday and
overnight Friday moderate to heavy snow over parts of the Northern
Intermountain Region. By Saturday, the light to moderate snow will expand
into parts of the Northern/Central Rockies and Great Basin.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
EconCurrents is transitioning to Substack in 2025. The existing newsletter will be discontinued no later than 01February2025 .
Note that the stock markets will not be open tomorrow. The stock markets and government offices will be closed on Thursday, January 9, 2025, in observance of a national day of mourning for former President Jimmy Carter. Therefore there will be no newsletter tomorrow.
Summary Of the Markets Today:
The Dow closed up 107 points or 0.25%,
Nasdaq closed down 11 points or 0.06%,
S&P 500 closed up 9 points or 0.16%,
Gold $2,681 up $15.50 or 0.590%,
WTI crude oil settled at $73 up $0.91 or 1.21%,
10-year U.S. Treasury 4.677 up 0.006 points or 0.128%,
USD index $109.01 up $0.47 or 0.43%,
Bitcoin $93,811 down $2,805 or 2.99%, (24 Hours),
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing
Today’s Highlights – Market Summary
US stocks showed mixed performance on Wednesday as investors reacted to reports of President-elect Donald Trump potentially declaring a national economic emergency to implement proposed tariffs. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average saw slight gains, while the NASDAQ Composite closed marginally lower. The market was influenced by several key factors. Trump’s potential tariff plans: CNN reported that Trump is considering using emergency powers to enact his proposed tariff framework, which has caused some market uncertainty. Minutes from the Fed’s December meeting indicated support for a gradual pace of interest rate cuts in 2025. Recent strong economic indicators, including service sector growth and job openings, have raised concerns about persistent inflation. The 10-year Treasury yield remained around 4.7%, reflecting market expectations of potentially slower interest rate cuts. Private sector job growth slowed in December, but unemployment claims unexpectedly fell, suggesting a stable labor market. Investors are closely monitoring these developments as they assess the economic outlook and potential policy shifts under the incoming Trump administration.
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
Private employers added 122,000 jobs in December 2024 according to ADP. Hiring slowed in several industries. Employment in manufacturing shrank for the third straight month. Pay gains continued to slow. Year-over-year pay for job stayers was up 4.6 percent. For job-changers, pay rose 7.1 percent. Most of this year, one month ADP has higher employment gains – then the next month, the BLS has higher gains,. If this pattern continues – the BLS employment gains in December will be less than 122,000. But 122,000 is far from stellar growth, and below the growth necessary to employ new entrants to the labor force. According to Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP:
The labor market downshifted to a more modest pace of growth in the final month of 2024, with a slowdown in both hiring and pay gains. Health care stood out in the second half of the year, creating more jobs than any other sector.
November 2024 sales of merchant wholesalers were up 0.9% from the revised November 2023 level. Total inventories were up 0.8% from the revised November 2023 level. The November inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers was 1.33. The November 2023 ratio was 1.35. I am sure that NOBODY in government knows really what a wholesaler is – and the statistics are likely garbage. The inventory to sales ratios are little changed which normally indicates there is no inventory gain (which is a sign of recession).
In the week ending January 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 213,000, a decrease of 10,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 223,250. The unemployment claims are low historically and consistent with a growing economy.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December 2024 provided updated economic projections and insights into monetary policy decisions. Note that I do not believe inflation is under control as any new development could set off another round of inflation. Key points include:
Economic Projections
Real GDP growth: Median projection revised upward to 2.5% for 2024 and 2.1% for 2025.
Unemployment rate: Projected to be 4.2% in 2024, slightly lower than previous estimates.
Inflation: PCE inflation projections raised for 2024 (2.4%) and 2025 (2.5%).
Monetary Policy
The federal funds rate was lowered by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%.
FOMC members anticipate two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025, totaling 50 basis points.
The median projection for the federal funds rate at the end of 2025 is now 3.9%, up from 3.4% in September.
Economic Outlook
Inflation is expected to continue moving towards the 2% target, but the process may take longer than previously anticipated. Several participants observed that the disinflationary process may have stalled temporarily or noted the risk that it could.
Economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, with consumer spending stronger than expected. Participants believe the strength of economic activity was unlikely to be a source of upward inflation pressures.
Labor market conditions are gradually easing while remaining solid overall.
Risks and Uncertainties
Upside risks to inflation have increased due to recent higher-than-expected readings and potential policy changes.
Uncertainties remain regarding the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policies – bottom line they were worried about Trump.
The Committee views risks to its dual mandate objectives as roughly balanced.
The FOMC indicated a cautious approach to future policy decisions, emphasizing the need to carefully assess evolving economic conditions and maintain flexibility in monetary policy adjustments.
According to the Federal Reserve, “In November, consumer credit decreased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.8 percent. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 12 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2 percent.” Two things: 1) this data is not inflation adjusted and at least 2% should be subtracted from growth for inflation; and 2) I prefer year-over-year analysis which shows total consumer credit is up 1.7% year-over-year with components revolving credit (credit cards) up 3.6% year-over-year and nonrevolving credit (like car loans and student loans) up 1.0% year-over-year. The trend lines show less and less reliance on credit for consumer spending which constrains consumer spending.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
New Railway to Connect China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan
Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan Fuels Militancy in Pakistan
Chevron Targets $6-8 bln In Free Cash Flow Growth By 2026
DOE Issues $1.8B Loan Guarantee To Arizona Utility For Renewable Energy
Guyana’s Crude Oil Exports Surged by 54% in 2024
Higher Taxes Could Slow China’s Fuel Oil Imports
Trump Not Ruling Out Force in Threats to Take Over Panama Canal
Nvidia’s Jensen Huang is ‘dead wrong’ about quantum computers, D-Wave CEO says
First major stock benchmark nears correction as small-cap Russell 2000 trade unravels
Judge approves Tesla directors’ nearly $1 billion deal to end excess pay case
Bitcoin falls to $94,000, giving back most of 2025’s early gains: CNBC Crypto World
This January indicator is an ‘early warning system’ for how the year will go
FOMC Minutes Show ‘Almost All’ Fed Members See Higher Inflation Risks, Cite Trump Policies
Most Fed officials were worried about higher inflation, but not enough to put rate hikes on the table, minutes of December meeting show
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 12Z Wed Jan 08 2025 – 12Z Fri Jan 10 2025
…Moderate to heavy lake-effect snow downwind from the Great Lakes on Wednesday…
…A developing Winter Storm will produce snow and rain/freezing rain, icing, over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley late Wednesday night into Thursday…
…Light to moderate snow over parts of the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains and Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains on Wednesday: Light snow over parts of the Upper Midwest on Thursday…
…There is an Extremely Critical Fire Weather Area for portions of the Southern California Coast…
Cold high pressure extending from the Central Plains to western Ontario,
Canada, moves to the Mid-Atlantic by Friday. The cold air and upper-level
energy will aid in producing moderate to heavy lake-effect snow downwind
from the Great Lakes on Wednesday and will begin to taper off on Thursday.
In addition, moderate to heavy upslope snow will develop over parts of
the Northeast, and light to moderate upslope snow over the Central
Appalachians will develop on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, strong high pressure over parts of the Great Basin and low
pressure dropping into the Gulf of California will continue to support
Santa Ana winds and a dangerous fire weather event over portions of
Southern California on Wednesday. The SPC has issued a Extremely Critical
Fire Weather Area along portions of the Southern California Coast.
Sustained winds reaching 30 to 40 mph, with stronger winds in the terrain,
along with low relative humidity, and dry fuels will contribute to the
dangerous conditions. Critical fire weather conditions are expected to
continue on Thursday for portions of Southern California.
Moreover, on Wednesday, a deep upper low over Northwestern Mexico will
open and move to the Southern Rockies to the Southern Plains by Friday.
The system will create impactful winter weather on Thursday for portions
of the Southern Plains before intensifying as it expands across the Lower
Mississippi Valley overnight Thursday into Friday. Snowfall totals will be
the greatest, 4 to 8 inches, from portions of North Texas across Arkansas
into the Tennessee Valley. Hazardous driving conditions can be expected
through the swath of winter weather. Additionally, rain/freezing rain will
develop over parts of Central Texas into southern Arkansas and northern
Louisiana. Over this region, scattered ice amounts of 0.10 inches will
fall on Thursday.
Furthermore, additional upper-level energy will move over the Pacific
Northwest/Northern Intermountain Region Wednesday morning and reach the
Southern Rockies and the Upper Great Lakes by Friday. The energy will aid
in the development of a new front over the Northern/Central Plains into
the Central Rockies that will move eastward to the Upper Great Lakes to
the Southern Plains by Friday.
The new energy will create a short-lived light coastal rain and
higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest on early
Wednesday morning. By Wednesday evening, light snow will develop over
parts of the Northern Rockies, expanding into parts of the Northern Plains
and Central Rockies by Thursday morning. By Thursday night, light snow
will extend from the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley to the
Central/Southern Rockies and Central/Southern Plains. By Friday morning,
the light snow will move into the Upper Great Lakes and Middle Mississippi
Valley, while continuing over the Southern Plains.
Moreover, by Friday, a new front moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest
will trigger coastal rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of the
Pacific Northwest.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
EconCurrents is transitioning to Substack in 2025. The existing newsletter will be discontinued no later than 01February2025 .
Summary Of the Markets Today:
The Dow closed down 178 points or 42%,
Nasdaq closed down 375 points or 1.89%,
S&P 500 closed down 66 points or 1.11%,
Gold $2,665 up $17.30 or 0.065%,
WTI crude oil settled at $74 up $0.71 or 0.95%,
10-year U.S. Treasury 4.693 up 0.077 points or 1.668%,
USD index $108.67 up $0.42 or 0.38%,
Bitcoin $96,810 down $5,363 or 5.54%, (24 Hours),
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing
Today’s Highlights – Market Summary
US stocks closed lower on Tuesday, reversing early gains as investors reassessed economic data and Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield rose about 7 basis points to just below 4.7%. Key economic data releases influenced market sentiment: The ISM manufacturing PMI showed continued expansion, but the prices paid index jumped to a nearly two-year high of 64.4, raising inflation concerns. JOLTS job openings increased more than expected in November, while hiring slowed and the quits rate decreased. These reports led investors to push back expectations for Fed rate cuts, with traders now placing a less than 50% chance of a cut before June 2025. NVIDIA, which had reached a record close on Monday, reversed course and fell over 6%, becoming the Dow’s worst performer despite CEO Jensen Huang’s CES keynote unveiling new AI products. The labor market showed signs of cooling, with the hiring rate falling to 3.3% and the quits rate dropping to 1.9%, both now lower than pre-pandemic levels. This data suggests a “no hire, no fire” labor market environment, according to Oxford Economics. Investors are now looking ahead to Friday’s December jobs report for further insights into the labor market and potential implications for Fed policy.
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
November 2024 exports were up 5.7% year-over-year while imports were up 8.1% year-over-year – the trade balance worsened by 20.8% year-over-year. The trend lines continue to show a an ever worsening trade balance with no end in sight.
The number of private job openings grew modestly from 6.9 million to 7.2 million on the last business day of November 2024. Studies by the Philly Fed have shown no correlation to economic or jobs growth with the hires and separations portion of JOLTS. I would expect a reasonably good jobs report (compared to the growth seen in 2024) this Friday based on this JOLTS data.
In December 2024, the ISM Services PMI® registered 54.1%, 2 percentage points higher than November. The Business Activity sub-index registered 58.2% in December, 4.5 percentage points higher than November. The New Orders sub-index recorded a reading of 54.2% , 0.5 percentage point higher than November. For the last 2 years, this index has generally remained in a tight band. As the U.S. is a services economy – this reading suggests little change in economic growth.
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 3.4% in November 2024 compared with November 2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 0.06% in November 2024 compared with October 2024. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 3.8% on a year-over-year basis from November 2024 to November 2025.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
Trump Pledges Swift Reversal of Biden’s Offshore Drilling Ban
Is U.S. Nuclear Power at Risk? Russia’s Uranium Restrictions Explained
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 12Z Tue Jan 07 2025 – 12Z Thu Jan 09 2025
…Moderate to heavy lake-effect snow downwind from the Great Lakes on Tuesday and Wednesday…
…A Developing Winter Storm will produce snow and rain/freezing rain, icing, over parts of Texas on Wednesday…
…Light snow over parts of the Great Basin, Southwest, and Central/Southern Rockies on Tuesday and over the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains on Wednesday…
…There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of Southern California on Tuesday and Wednesday, with an Extremely Critical Risk for portions of Los Angeles and Ventura counties on Wednesday…
Cold high pressure over the Northern High Plains will move southeastward
to the Ohio Valley by Thursday. The cold air and upper-level energy will
aid in producing moderate to heavy lake-effect snow downwind from the
Great Lakes through Thursday. In addition, moderate to heavy upslope snow
will develop over parts of Northern New England, and light to moderate
upslope snow over the Central Appalachians will develop through Thursday.
Meanwhile, strong high pressure will develop over parts of the Great
Basin, setting up Santa Ana winds over Southern California on Tuesday,
that will continue into Wednesday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Critical Risk Fire Weather Outlook over parts of Southern California on
Tuesday and Wednesday, with an Extremely Critical Outlook for portions of
Los Angeles and Ventura counties on Wednesday. Winds of 20 to 25 mph on
Tuesday, increasing up to 40 mph on Wednesday, with stronger gusts in
terrain-favored areas, along with low relative humidity, and dry fuels
will contribute to dangerous conditions.
Moreover, on Tuesday, upper-level energy over Southern California will
move southward to Northwestern Mexico, creating a deep upper low over the
region by Wednesday. The energy will begin to move eastward over Northern
Mexico by Thursday. By Tuesday morning, light to moderate snow will
develop over parts of the Great Basin and the Northern/Central Rockies.
Light to moderate snow will develop over parts of the Southern Rockies by
Tuesday evening.
The system will produce light snow over West Texas on Wednesday before a
more significant storm on Thursday. Many areas from northern Texas,
including the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, will have at least some chance
(>30%) of wintry weather. With cold air already in place, a wintry mix of
snow, sleet, and freezing rain is forecast for the Southern Plains, which
may cause hazardous driving conditions, starting late Wednesday night and
continuing into Thursday morning.
Further, additional upper-level energy will move over the Pacific
Northwest Wednesday morning and reach the Central Rockies by Thursday,
aiding in the development of a new front from the Northern/Central Plains
into the Central Rockies. The new energy will create a short-lived light
coastal rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest
on early Wednesday morning. By Wednesday evening, light snow will develop
over parts of the Northern Rockies, expanding into parts of the Northern
Plains and Central Rockies by Thursday.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
EconCurrents is transitioning to Substack in 2025. The existing newsletter will be discontinued no later than 01February2025 .
Summary Of the Markets Today:
The Dow closed down 26 points or 0.06%,
Nasdaq closed up 243 points or 1.24%,
S&P 500 closed up 33 points or 0.55%,
Gold $2,645 down $9.90 or 0.037%,
WTI crude oil settled at $73 down $0.55 or 0.74%,
10-year U.S. Treasury 4.620 up 0.025 points or 0.544%,
USD index $108.26 down $0.69 or 0.63%,
Bitcoin $102,322 up $4,216 or 4.12%, (24 Hours),
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing
Today’s Highlights – Market Summary
US stocks rose on Monday, led by a rally in chip stocks. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite climbed while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped marginally. The tech sector drove gains, with Nvidia shares rising over 3% to a record high and Micron Technology surging more than 10%. The rally was fueled by optimism around AI-driven growth after NVIDIA server partner Foxconn reported record revenue and a strong sales forecast. Investors are now anticipating Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote speech at the CES tech conference for updates on the company’s new Blackwell chip. Disney confirmed plans to merge its Hulu + Live TV business with FuboTV, sending Fubo shares soaring nearly 250%. Bitcoin prices traded above $102,000 per token, surpassing $100,000 for the first time since December 19. The 10-year Treasury yield rose slightly. The US dollar index dropped sharply following reports of potential limited tariffs under the incoming Trump administration, but later pared some losses after Trump disputed the report. Markets will be closed on Thursday to mourn the death of former President Jimmy Carter, with attention focused on the release of December nonfarm payrolls data on Friday. In international news, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned as Liberal Party leader, potentially reshaping Canada’s trade relationship with the US under a second Trump administration.
