NOAA Updates their Four-Season Outlook on February 17, 2022

February 18, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Introduction

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued their Seasonal Outlook which extends slightly more than a year so I call it a four-season outlook. It also includes what NOAA calls their Early Outlook for the following month which is March and a drought Outlook for the next three months. The maps show where temperature and precipitation will deviate from normal as the existing La Nina weakens and the weather pattern reverts to normal as adjusted to take into account what NOAA calls decadal trends. I include the full NOAA Discussion which supports their predictions. There is no guarantee that the future will unfold exactly as projected by NOAA but having this information which represents both a near-term and fairly long-term Outlook can be very useful.

17Feb2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: DOW closes Down 622 points, NASDAQ Down A Whopping 2.9%, S&P 500 Slips To 2.1%, Walmart’s Advertising Business Soars 130%, 2-Year Treasury Rate Had Its Biggest One-Day Drop In Almost A Month

February 17, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Headlines:

Russia Is Ready To Send More Gas To Italy
Rising Lithium Prices Could Derail The EV Boom
Ford’s Mustang Mach-E beats Tesla’s Model 3
Bonds & Bullion Bid As Bullard & Blinken Bloviation Batters Big-Tech & Bitcoin
Rising Sex Costs As Durex Raises Prices

Wall Street opened by gaping downward for the second session with investors attempting to cut their losses. The DOW slid over 400 points in the first thirty minutes. Many analysts are predicting a continued weak market influenced by a growing inflation spiral and the imminent invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces.

For most of today’s session, the market moved sideways, marked by a notable absence of BTFDers. Everyone, it seems, is waiting for the second shoe to fall, believing the Wall Street elite are trying to sell Hopium spiked KoolAid to the sheeples. Others have said that the markets are at the top of a dead cat bounce and suggest tightening seatbelts for the roller-coaster ride down.

During the final hour, equity losses gained traction and negatively impacted market sentiment. With more than 500 explosions in Ukraine last night, Russian “shelling” hit a kindergarten and injured two teachers, further exacerbating Russia/Ukraine tensions.

Gold prices jumped to an eight-month high (1900), and other precious metals continued to rise. On the other hand, WTI crude is sharply down from its 96 dollar high three sessions ago.

New residential construction permits grew 0.7% month-over-month but year-over-year growth was a modest 0.8%. Construction completions declined 5.2% month-over-month and are down 6.2% year-over-year.

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims was was 248,000 – an increase of 23,000 from the previous week. The 4-week moving average was 243,250, a decrease of 10,500 from the previous week

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.

16Feb2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Tried And Failed To Reach Green, DOW Closed Down 55 points, NASDAQ Closed Down 0.1%, WTI Crude Slips Further To Settle At 90.23, Bitcoin Steady For Third Session At 44200

February 16, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Headlines:

The U.S. And Nato Aren’t Buying Russia’s Claims It’s Pulling Troops Away From Ukraine.
Forecasters Have No Clue Where Oil Demand Is Going.
Stocks, Bonds, & Bitcoin Dump’n’Pump As ‘Meh’-Minutes Reverse Russia-Rout.
S&P 500 Ends Higher For 2nd Day After Fed Minutes Affirms Plan For Faster Rate Hikes, Balance-Sheet Cuts

Wall Street began today’s session lower, briefly touching green, but failed to close up. Retail sales surge 3.8% in January, more than expected amid inflation rise. Minutes show Fed ready to raise rates, shrink balance sheet soon.

China looks to run coal-fired power plants at full capacity. China will help run its coal-fired power plants at full capacity to ensure energy security, despite the climate goals of the world’s largest polluter.

The Federal Reserve meeting minutes for their January 25-26 meeting shows little new insight on the schedule or size of increases for the federal funds rate which remained at 0 to 1/4 percent. The meeting minutes included the following opaque statement:

… most participants suggested that a faster pace of increases in the target range for the federal funds rate than in the post-2015 period would likely be warranted, should the economy evolve generally in line with the Committee’s expectation. Even so, participants emphasized that the appropriate path of policy would depend on economic and financial developments and their implications for the outlook and the risks around the outlook, and they will be updating their assessments of the appropriate setting for the policy stance at each meeting.

January 2022 retail sales increased 3.8% month-over-month and 13.0% year-over-year (numbers not adjusted for inflation). This is a sizeable increase considering COVID ran wild in January. The US Census also released export-import data for January 2022 which showed prices rose 10.8% year-over-year.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.

15Feb2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Global markets jump amid hopes that military tensions over Ukraine could be easing. S&P 500 climbs sharply and DOW up 423 points as Russia-Ukraine tensions ease

February 15, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Headlines:

Elon Musk unloaded $22 billion of Tesla stock — and still owns more now than a year ago.

Super Bowl 2022 attracted more than 112 million viewers, but failed to top record.

Virgin Galactic stock jumps 32% as spaceflight ticket sales open with $150,000 deposit.

Crude Crushed, Stocks Surge, Bitcoin Bid As US-Russia Tensions ‘Ease’

New York City Fires Nearly 1,500 Workers For Refusing COVID-19 Vaccine: Mayor .

 

Oil Refining Industry Can’t Keep Up With Demand. The price of global refined products are soaring even more so than crude oil itself, as demand for those refined products is proving too much for refiners to keep up with, according to a new analysis by Vortexa.

Oil Prices Fall Back But Bullish Sentiment Remains. Oilprice Alert: InnerCircle members will receive the next private placement intelligence letter on Wednesday next week. Tap into a secret world of wealth and receive our 50-page whitepaper on Private Placements for free by signing up today.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.

14Feb2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Major Wall Street Indexes Closed Down as Russia-Ukraine tensions, Fed’s next move worry investors, DOW down 172 Points, NASDAQ flat 0.00%, S&P 500 slides -0.4%, Bitcoin unchanged at 44200, WTI Crude rises to 94.88, BTFDers Didn’t Save Wall Street Today

February 14, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Headlines:

Ukraine Sparks Market Mayhem As Traders See Fed Panic Ahead, Price-In Rate-Cuts Next Year.
How Valentine’s Day Became A Lucrative Holiday.
Wall Street’s Biggest Bear Warns Stocks Are About To Be Hammered By A “Polar Vortex” Of Collapsing Growth.
Semiconductor Sales Top Half A Trillion Dollars or The First Time And Will Keep Growing.

A new inflation reading shows the small business tipping point has been reached as business owners say they need to raise prices. Also, they don’t expect inflation to decline, a signal that higher prices have overtaken Main Street.

Share prices fall sharply across Europe as Ukraine’s invasion fears rattle investors, but losses are lower in the U.S. amid hopes of a deal with Russia. Unfortunately, there is more bad news for Europe’s consumers and policymakers everywhere you look. Russia’s ongoing threats of an invasion of Ukraine have only served to compound insult upon Europe’s self-inflicted energy-related injuries.
The U.S. closes its embassy in Kyiv, citing the ‘dramatic acceleration’ of Russian troops.

Mark Hulbert: Gold isn’t likely to be a safe haven for your money if Russia invades Ukraine! Gold is rallying (1873) now, but prices typically decline in the wake of geopolitical crises. WTI has also settled higher at 94.88, sending gas pump prices higher.

Has anyone mentioned the “I” word today? FYI – “it” is going higher – much higher!

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.

Assessing the U.S. Climate in January 2022

February 14, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Every month NOAA issues a report assessing the U.S. Climate for that month and I receive an email that summarizes that report. The email generally does a very good job of presenting the information in the monthly report so I thought that I would provide the information that was in that email.  However, I have replaced two of the graphics with different NOAA graphics.

These are pretty much the same information but for temperature and precipitation rather than showing the map of the temperature and precipitation anomalies, I am showing the state rankings of their temperature and precipitation relative to the most recent 128 years of data. There are many ways to display data and I just happen to like the state ranking approach. On an overall basis, it was cool compared to recent years and dry not only compared to recent years but to the entire period of record.  There was a lot of variation throughout the U.S.

11Feb2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Yesterday Was About Inflation Today Wall Street Crashes To The Negative Side Because Of Rumors Russia Is Preparing To Invade Ukraine, Dow Slides 1000 Points In Two Days, Bitcoin Falls To 42600

February 11, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Headlines:
Markets Turmoil Amid ‘Russia Invades’ Reports & Bullard’s Bond Bloodbath.
Despite Turmoil, Stocks Seeing Largest Ever Inflows In 2022.
Inflation worries will continue to haunt investors next week, say, analysts.
Biden sends 3,000 more troops to Poland amid the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

Oil Prices Spike (WTI 91.77) On Rumors Russia Is Preparing To Invade Ukraine. Oil prices are soaring after media outlets began to report that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent. PBS has said that according to officials, the U.S. believes Putin has decided to invade Ukraine and communicated those plans to the Russian military.

U.S. Rig Count See Massive Climb On Higher Oil Prices. The number of active drilling rigs in the United States rose by 22 this week, the 16th straight weekly increase to the number of oil and gas rigs in the United States, and the largest single-week rise since February 2018.

Oil jumps amid escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Oil prices jumped amid escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia, with the U.K. advising British nationals to leave Ukraine immediately.
NASDAQ closes down sharply at 2.8%, while the S&P 500 closes down 1.9% on fears of a Russian attack on Ukraine. The red equities trading volume is fractionally higher than yesterday.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates the Status of ENSO February 10, 2022

February 11, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted somewhat from last month. The forecast calls for the La Nina to continue to fade.  The timing is shown in the NOAA discussion and the IRI probability analysis. The Australian Meteorological Service thinks this will happen sooner and I agree. I present some information that suggests that NOAA has the timing wrong and that the transition to ENSO Neutral will occur fairly soon.

The impact of the NOAA forecast for the transition from La Nina to ENSO Neutral will show up next Thursday when NOAA issues its Seasonal Outlook. The NOAA ENSO Status Update provides an advance indication of how the forecast might change. To repeat, I expect the demise of La Nina to occur somewhat sooner than predicted by NOAA.  It is not a significant difference. There is a lag between the ENSO state and the impact on U.S. weather.  Thus the exact date when a fading La Nina meets the criteria for ENSO Neutral may not be very important in terms of the actual impact on Spring and Summer weather including the North American Monsoon (NAM). We will learn what NOAA thinks next Thursday.

10Feb2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Today Is All About Inflation, Markets Open Sharply Down, Rising Briefly Into The Green And It Was Downhill From There, DOW Closes Down 526 points, NASDAQ down 2.1%, WTI Slips To 89.96

February 10, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Headlines:
Consumer goods giant Unilever will raise prices again as the cost of raw materials climbs.
Bond Report: Aggressive Treasury selloff gives 2-year rate its biggest daily gain since 2009 and lifts 10-year yield above 2%.
U.S. consumer prices have risen at the fastest rate since 1982.

There are whispers of an emergency FED rate hike as soon as tomorrow that spooked investors, inspiring today’s selloff on fears the Fed will be more aggressive to contain surging inflation. With the punditry obsessing over the March FOMC meeting, where odds earlier today hit 100% of a 50bps rate hike before easing modestly (and more than six hikes for all of 2022).

WSJ markets alert: 10-year Treasury yield touches 2% for the first time since 2019. After hot ‘Blowout’ inflation data, inflation has soared to its highest rate in four decades. U.S. inflation leads traders to largely price in a half-point March rate hike by the Fed.

Kellogg may raise prices again in 2022 as it sees ‘double-digit cost inflation,’ says CEO. “Our goal is to cover all of those input costs with pricing and productivity, and we think we’re in very good shape to do that,” the Kellogg CEO said Thursday.

Inflation eroded pay by 1.7% over the past year. Workers have seen their hourly pay jump at about the fastest clip in 15 years. But high annual inflation has eaten into those raises.

Bullishness across commodity markets is overwhelming. Goldman’s Jeffrey Currie summed it up earlier this week by saying, “This is a molecule crisis. We’re out of everything, and I don’t care if it’s oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum. You name it; we’re out of it.”

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.