EconCurrents

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 30 points or 0.10%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.74%,
• S&P 500 up 0.34%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $89 up 2.03% for the week,
• USD $109.82 strengthened 0.14%,
• Gold $1705 down 0.73%,
• Bitcoin $19.958 down 1.07% – Session Low 19,691,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.412 Unchanged,

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Producer Price Index for final demand moved up 8.7% for the 12 months ended in August 2022 – down from last month’s 9.8%. The decrease in the index for final demand is attributable to a decline in final demand goods which was somewhat offset by a rise in final demand services. The CPI released yesterday for August 2022 showed an 8.2% YoY rise. In general, the CPI and PPI move in the same direction.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 1,276 points or 3.94%,
• Nasdaq closed down 5.16%,
• S&P 500 down 4.32%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 88 down 1.48% for the week,
• USD $109.82 weakening 1.52%,
• Gold $1713 down 1.59%,
• Bitcoin $20,298 down 9.50% – Session Low 20,104,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.27% little changed

Today’s Economic Releases:

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 1.9 points in August to 91.8, marking the eighth consecutive month below the 48-year average of 98 but reversing some of the declines in the first half of the year. Per NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg:

The small business economy is still recovering from the pandemic while inflation continues to be a serious problem for owners across the nation. Owners are managing the rising costs of utilities, fuel, labor, supplies, materials, rent, and inventory to protect their earnings. The worker shortage is impacting small business productivity as owners raise compensation to attract better workers.

The CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights report shows overall mortgage delinquencies and foreclosure rates remained near two-decade lows in June 2022, with home price growth that remains in double digits and a strong U.S. job market helping to keep mortgage performance healthy. Overall mortgage delinquencies and foreclosure rates remained near two-decade lows.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) over the last 12 months was 8.3% – modestly down from the 8.5% posted last month. Shelter, food, and medical care indexes were the largest of many contributors applying upward pressure. These increases were offset by a 10.6-percent decline in the gasoline index. The bottom line is that the core index (removing food and energy) actually increased (red line on the graph below). Note that this extremely modest decline in the CPI keeps the door open for the Federal Reserve to continue to significantly boost the federal funds rate to fight inflation.

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Child poverty, calculated by the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM), fell to its lowest recorded level in 2021, declining 46% from 9.7% in 2020 to 5.2% in 2021, according to U.S. Census Bureau data released today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 230 points or 0.71%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.27%,
• S&P 500 up 1.06%,
• Gold $1737 up $7.8,
• WTI crude oil settled at $88 up $1.13,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.354%  little changed,
• USD index $108.32 strengthened 0.63%,
• Bitcoin $22,378 up 2.72%,

Today’s Economic Releases:

The CoreLogic National Fraud Risk Index saw a decrease year-over-year, however recent trends indicate fraud risk is back on the rise. The decline is partially due to the recalibration of our scoring model in the first quarter of 2022. However, higher risks were recorded during months in the second quarter, particularly for certain types of mortgage fraud.

On Friday, the Federal Reserve released their Z.1 Financial Accounts which shows a drop in household networth of 4.1% in 2Q2022 (not inflation adjusted – the the decline mostly due to the stock market). Our Joe Six Pack Index which is modeled on the average American who owns a house (and little more) shows that Joe’s financial health actually improved if one ignores inflation (and declined if you decide inflation is an important element of net worth) – red line on graph below.

The federal budget deficit was $944 billion in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2022 (that is, from October 2021 through August 2022), the Congressional Budget Office estimates—$1.8 trillion less than it was at the same point last year.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the August 2022 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations continued to decline across all horizons.