...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over Southwest and a second area over the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday morning... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from parts of the Great Basin/Southwest from Tuesday into Wednesday morning...
The CoreLogic National Fraud Risk Index saw a decrease year-over-year, however recent trends indicate fraud risk is back on the rise. The decline is partially due to the recalibration of our scoring model in the first quarter of 2022. However, higher risks were recorded during months in the second quarter, particularly for certain types of mortgage fraud.
On Friday, the Federal Reserve released their Z.1 Financial Accounts which shows a drop in household networth of 4.1% in 2Q2022 (not inflation adjusted – the the decline mostly due to the stock market). Our Joe Six Pack Index which is modeled on the average American who owns a house (and little more) shows that Joe’s financial health actually improved if one ignores inflation (and declined if you decide inflation is an important element of net worth) – red line on graph below.
The federal budget deficit was $944 billion in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2022 (that is, from October 2021 through August 2022), the Congressional Budget Office estimates—$1.8 trillion less than it was at the same point last year.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the August 2022 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations continued to decline across all horizons.
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over Upper Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Eastern Gulf Coast through Monday morning... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from parts of the Upper Great Lakes and a second area over the northern Mid-Atlantic from Monday into Tuesday morning...
On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e. La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted slightly from last month. The IRI analysis suggests it could be slightly later than it appeared last month. Also, the probability that it will extend into the winter is much higher. So what I anticipated as being a three-peat looks to be a reality. But in theory, things could change.
Nevertheless, that is what both NOAA and I think will happen. But it could happen a bit earlier or a bit later.
I provided a small sample of model runs by a number of different meteorological agencies that is presented by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and they suggest that maybe we will be in ENSO Neutral in January or February rather than March as NOAA seems to be thinking. NOAA is placing more weight on the statistical rather than dynamic models but statistics requires data and there have not been a lot of similar situations but what data there is suggests March is more likely than January or February. But perhaps this La Nina will continue beyond March. Maybe it will continue for a fourth year.
...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over Southern California, Nevada, and Arizona through Sunday morning... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from parts of the Eastern Gulf Coast and a second area over the Central Appalachians/southern Mid-Atlantic through Sunday morning... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper Great Lakes, a second area over the Mid-Atlantic, and a third over Eastern Gulf Coast from Sunday into Monday morning... ...Elevated fire weather over parts of the Pacific Northwest...
NOAA updates many of its weather outlooks daily or even more frequently and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. We provide a daily report which focuses on the shorter-term predictions but has links to all the partial-month outlooks. One of the reports issued by NOAA only gets updated on Fridays and since this covers weeks 3 and 4 it is very important. The discussion that gets issued with this week 3-4 NOAA report is often where possible changes to the weather pattern are first identified.
So we have decided to issue a special report on Fridays (which most will read on Saturday) in which for a subset of the information, we show the actual forecast maps not just provide the links. This makes it easier for the reader. We will also include at the end of the article the other information from the daily article
When the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued on Friday, we have a 28-day view of the future. It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts. This is important because it appears that changes are happening and the current view of the next 28 days differs substantially from the Monthly Outlook issued just a few days ago.
The regular 48-hour forecast article is included in this article and follows the 28-Day Analysis.
This week we also show the state rankings for August and compare them to the state rankings year to date (YTD).
Total Average Equity Per Homeowner Hits a Record High of $300,000 in Q2 per CoreLogic. Homeowners with mortgages gained a collective $3.6 trillion year over year in the second quarter of 2022. The following graph shows the average equity gain by state.
July 2022 sales of merchant wholesalers were down 1.4% from last month but was up 15.3% from July 2021. As the numbers are not inflation adjusted, the inventory-to-sales ratio YoY change is the best way to look at the data – and this data shows that the inventory is modestly shrinking with respect to sales which somewhat indicates a modestly growing economy (see graph below).
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
...Hazardous weather associated with Hurricane Kay to begin entering southern California and parts of the Desert Southwest on Friday... ...Dangerous heat continues throughout central and northern California through the end of the week, with well above average temperatures building into the Pacific Northwest by the weekend... ...Powerful cold front will usher in much below-average temperatures for the Intermountain West, Plains and Midwest this weekend... ...Unsettled weather and flash flood chances forecast over parts of the Southeast and eastern Gulf Coast..
The 2022 Wildfire Risk Report was issued by CoreLogic showing that the wildfire risk landscape is evolving. With the U.S. population increasing and residential development extending farther from metro areas, more homes and businesses will face the threat of wildfires. Read the report [here].
In the week ending September 3, the 4 week moving average was 233,000, a decrease of 7,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The initial unemployment claims is suggesting the economy is modestly improving.
In July 2022, the Federal Reserve says consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.2%. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 11.6%, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 4.4%. There is no question consumer credit is increasing but it is being driven by by revolving credit (mostly credit cards) – and my prefered view using YoY analysis shows total credit is increasing 7.7%, revolving credit 14.9%, and non-revolving credit 5.7%. Unfortunately, much of the increase in credit is being caused by:
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
...Hazardous weather associated with Hurricane Kay to begin entering southern California and parts of the Desert Southwest on Friday... ...Dangerous heat continues throughout central and northern California through the end of the week, with well above average temperatures building into the Pacific Northwest by the weekend... ...Critical Fire Weather conditions forecast throughout portions of the Intermountain West and Central Plains... ...Unsettled weather and flash flood chances forecast over parts of the Southeast and eastern Gulf Coast...
