September 28, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 29, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Major Hurricane Ian makes landfall on the west coast of Florida, with
catastrophic storm surge, destructive major-hurricane force winds, and
torrential rainfall ongoing...

...Ian's interaction with a front will likely prolong impacts from high
winds, heavy rain, and flooding even for areas further inland through
Thursday...

...Cool and dry weather for the rest of the eastern half of the country
but heavy rain and strong winds from Ian is forecast to edge toward the
Southeast U.S. on Friday...

...Well above average temperatures persist across much of the West, with
excessive heat continuing over parts of southern California, followed by
arrival of rain and cooler temperatures over the Pacific Northwest later
today and into the northern Rockies on Thursday...

28 September 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Closed Higher And Above Past Two Session’s Resistance. Crude Prices Climb, Mortgage Refinancing Falls

September 28, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 547 points or 1.88%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 2.05%,
  • S&P 500 up 1.96%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $82 up $3.51,
  • USD $112.75 down $1.36,
  • Gold $1661 up $32,
  • Bitcoin $19,543 up 2.69% – Session Low $18,505,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.707% down 0.256%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, commodity prices as of the market close.

Today’s Economic Releases:

As one would expect higher mortgage rates to affect home sales – pending home sales declined for the third straight month in August 2022. Pending homes sales is a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, which fell 2.0% month-over-month and fell 24.2% year-over-year.

7,201,572 single- and multifamily residences in Hurricane Ian’s path with high flash flood risk:

  • The National Hurricane Center (NHC) currently forecasts that the entire state of Florida is at some level of flash flood risk due to heavy rainfall from Hurricane Ian. Most of the state is at moderate (40%) or greater risk. The cities of Tampa Bay and Orlando have a 70% chance of flash flooding (Figure 1).
  • CoreLogic estimates that 7,201,572 single- and multifamily residences (SFRs and MFRs) with a combined total reconstruction value (RCV) of $1.6 trillion are within the “moderate” and “high” flash flood risk bands, as forecasted by NHC (Figure 1). Note, this does not indicate that every single home within these bands will flood, nor that any flooded home will sustain 100% damage up to its full RCV. This estimate accounts for flash flooding only and excludes homes that at risk to riverine and coastal flooding.

Figure 1: Hurricane Ian 1 to 3-day flash flood risk valid September 28 – October 1.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Inflation Reduction Act Is Both Good And Bad News For U.S Biofuels
  • Dallas Fed Survey Sees Activity Increasing At Solid Pace In U.S. Oil And Gas
  • Oil Jumps 4% On Inventory Draw, Hurricane Outages
  • Mortgage refinancing drops to a 22-year low as interest rates surge even higher
  • The Big Short Squeeze Is Coming
  • Market Extra: Did something break? What stock-market investors need to know about mounting global financial stresses

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

September 27, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 28, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Hurricane Ian is forecast to make landfall on the west coast of Florida
late Wednesday; slow forward motion of Ian will likely prolong impacts
from high winds, heavy rain, and flooding even for areas further inland...

...Cool weather expected to persist across the Northeast and Great Lakes
through at least mid-week...

...Well above average temperatures across much of the West, with excessive
heat continuing over parts of southern California, followed by arrival of
rain and cooler temperatures over the Pacific Northwest later on
Wednesday...

27 September 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Closes Mixed. S&P Slips to New Low. U.S. Dollar Creeping Higher Potentially Hurting Exports.

September 27, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 126 points or 0.43%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.25%,
  • S&P 500 down 0.21%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $78 up 2.75%,
  • USD $114.25 up $0.14,
  • Gold $1635 up $2.00,
  • Bitcoin $19,029 down 0.50% – Session Low 18,868,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.988% up 0.108%,

Today’s Economic Releases:

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite in July 2022 posted a 16.1% year-over-year gain, down from 18.7% in the previous month. CoreLogic Deputy Chief Economist Selma Hepp stated:

In July, the CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index posted an increase of 15.8%, down from a 18.1% gain in June, marking the fourth month of decelerating annual home price appreciation. In addition, month-to-month index turned negative, down 0.3% in July, the first time since late 2018 when the Federal Reserve went through a round of monetary tightening leading to a surge in mortgage rates and subsequent housing market slowdown. Rapid home price deceleration, which is spreading beyond the West Coast markets, was anticipated given the Fed’s actions and will bring home price growth closer in line with income growth. Returning to long-term average of 4-5% annual price growth is closer than initially anticipated – potentially by early 2023.

New orders for manufactured durable goods in August 2022, down two consecutive months, decreased 0.2% month-over-month and is up 8.8% year-over-year. Still, when adjusted for inflation, year-over-year growth is down 0.8% (see graph below):

Sales of new single‐amily houses in August 2022 were at a 28.8% above July rate but is 0.1% below August 2021.  The median sales price of new houses sold in August 2022 was $436,800.  The average sales price was $521,800.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond composite manufacturing index rose fro+m −8 in August to 0 in September, matching its July level.

 

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Strong Dollar Threatens Demand For Industrial Metals
  • Solar Cell Breakthrough Could Challenge Silicon Dominance
  • Goldman Sachs Drops Oil Price Forecast
  • Stock market losses wipe out $9 trillion from Americans’ wealth
  • Vanguard To Liquidate And Shutter A U.S. Listed ETF For The First Time In Its History
  • CIA Warned Germany Of Possible Nord Stream Pipeline Attack

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

September 26, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 27, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3 am EDT September 27, 2022 to incorporate the latest information on Hurricane Ian.

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Hurricane Ian sets path towards Florida with the threat of flooding,
high winds, and severe weather increasing...

...Heavy rain continues for portions of the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday...

...Cool and unsettled weather expected to persist across the Northeast and
Great Lakes through at least mid-week...

...Well above average temperatures forecast throughout the West, with
excessive heat impacting parts of southern California...

26 September 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Today’s Session Behaved Much Like Friday, Down Fractionally And Trading Sideways. US Dollar Weakens, Crude Prices Fall As Investors Fear Feds Next Move

September 26, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 330 points or 1.11%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.60%,
  • S&P 500 down 1.03%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $77 down 3.33%,
  • USD $114.04 weakens $1.02,
  • Gold $1631 down $24,
  • Bitcoin $19,193 up 1.43% – Session Low 18,693,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.879% little changed

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index improved in September and rose eight points to 9.3, a reading suggestive of stronger output growth.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3-month moving average increased modestly from last month’s -0.08 to August 2022’s +0.01. A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth. I consider the CFNAI to be one of the best coincident indicators of the economy. The following graph is the monthly index (which is not used for economic forecasting) but shows the inputs from the 4 categories that comprise the index.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Is The Nuclear Waste Problem Overblown?
  • A Perfect Storm Is Brewing In Aluminum Markets
  • U.S. Warns Of Catastrophic Consequences If Putin Uses Nuclear Weapons
  • Campaigns spend over $6.4 billion on ads for the 2022 elections, making the race one of the most expensive ever
  • Markets Crash As Monetary Laughing Gas Fades
  • Gartman Says Time To Go “Little Bit Long” Of Stocks

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

September 25, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 26, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Cool and unsettled weather expected across the Northeast and Great
Lakes over the next few days...

...Well above average temperatures forecast throughout the West, with
excessive heat impacting parts of southern California...

...Isolated flash flood concerns for portions of central and southern
Florida through Monday before hazardous conditions associated with
Tropical Storm Ian approach southern Florida on Tuesday...

September 24, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 25, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Recent record heat coming to an end across the Central/Southern Plains
into the Lower Mississippi...

...Below average temperatures to spread from the Great Lakes into the Ohio
Valley, while much above average temperatures spread across the West...

...Rains from Ian to push northward into South Florida on Monday...

September 23, 2022 Looking Ahead 28 Days Plus our usual 48-hour report.

September 24, 2022Posted inweather2 Comments

Updated slightly at 2 pm EDT on September 24, 2022

NOAA updates many of its weather outlooks daily or even more frequently and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. We provide a daily report which focuses on the shorter-term predictions but also has links to all the partial-month outlooks. One of the weather outlook maps issued by NOAA only gets updated on Fridays and since this covers weeks 3 and 4, it is very important. It covers half of the 28-day period and the discussion released with this map is often where possible changes to the weather pattern are first identified.

That is why we issue a special report on Fridays (which most will read on Saturday) in which we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader.  This provides a 28-day view of the future. We also include In Part II of the article the other information from the daily 48-hour forecast article. Importantly, this time of the year, it includes updates on tropical events.

It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts If you read this article a few days or more after it is published. And there will be a totally updated version next Friday.

As a bonus this Friday, we have included a look back at August 2022 this time on a worldwide basis. We covered precipitation but the major focus was on how August 2022 temperature fits into the modern record of yearly temperature. It is one way of looking at Global Warming(GW). Recently we reviewed August in regards to the U.S. Lower 48 States.