September 22, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 22, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Moderate Risks of excessive rainfall/flash flooding continue across
parts of the Four Corners states into Thursday along with potential severe
weather through this evening...

...Showers and storms that could be severe will move across the Northeast
through tonight and into tomorrow...

...Record-breaking warmth will continue across the south-central U.S. into
Friday...

21 September 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Makes Wild Waterfall Swings After Another Aggressive 0.75% Federal Funds Rate Hike. And Now The Bad News . . .

September 21, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 522 points or 1.70%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.79%,
  • S&P 500 down 1.71%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $83 down 1.12%,
  • USD $111.00 weakening $1.26,
  • Gold $1683 up $11.30,
  • Bitcoin $19,006 up 0.41% – Session Low 18,815,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.526 little changed

Today’s Economic Releases:

Existing-home sales declined for the seventh consecutive month. Total existing-home sales contracted 0.4% month-over-month in August 2022. Year-over-year, sales declined 19.9%. Sales are now at levels seen in 2012/2013. The median existing-home price for all housing types in August was up 7.7% year-over-year.

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 75 bps to 3%-3.25% today, the third straight three-quarter point increase and pushing borrowing costs to the highest since 2008. The FOMC statement said in part:

Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures. Russia’s war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run … and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve Board / FOMC released their economic projections which shows a significantly worsening economy since their June 2022 projections. However, there was no forecasted recession in these projections.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:
  • The U.S. Dollar Is Showing Strength As A Safe Haven Asset
  • FedEx’s bleak warning could reflect the global economy − and the company’s own shortcomings
  • Existing home sales fall in August, and prices soften significantly
  • The Fed just raised interest rates by another 0.75%, putting the Main Street economy ‘dangerously close’ to the edge of a lending cliff
  • Benchmark bond yields are ‘bad news’ for investors as the Fed hikes rates by 0.75%. What it means for your portfolio
  • GOP attorneys general call on credit card companies to drop plans for gun store code
  • “Maybe 4-5% Inflation Is The New Normal” – Wall Street Reacts To Powell’s Hawkish Surprise
  • US interest rates hit a 14-year high in inflation battle

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

September 21, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 21, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Scattered to numerous flash floods likely through at least Thursday
across parts of the Southwest, central Great Basin, and central Rockies...

...Severe thunderstorms possible from northern Utah to southern Idaho and
over the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday...

...Record breaking heat to become less widespread throughout the
south-central United States on Wednesday and confine to the Deep South on
Thursday...

20 September 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Main Indexes Gapped Down At The Opening And Traded Mostly Sideways, Investors Fear A Full-Percentage-Point Fed Rate Hike

September 20, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 313 points or 1.01%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.95%,
  • S&P 500 down 1.13%,
  • Gold $1674 down $4.50,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $84 down $1.54,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.559%  little changed,
  • USD index $110.16 weakening 0.37%,
  • Bitcoin $19,048 down 2.74%,

Today’s Economic Releases:

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in August 2022 were 10.0% below July and 14.4% below August 2021.  Privately-owned housing starts in August were up 12.2% month-over-month and down 0.1% year-over-year. Privately‐owned housing completions in August were down 5.4% month-over-month but are up 3.1% year-over-year. The new home construction sector remains near or above the pre-pandemic levels.

Mortgage Delinquencies Inch Up From May but Remain Near Record Low in June. For the month of June 2022, 2.9% of all mortgages in the U.S. were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure), representing a 1.5 percentage point decrease compared to 4.4% in June 2021.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:
  • U.S. Senators Propose Secondary Sanctions On Russian Oil
  • U.S. Refiners May Soon Purchase More Canadian Crude
  • Single-family rent increases cool for the third straight month
  • Ford stock suffers worst day since 2011 after cost warning, shedding $7 billion in market value
  • Ford warns investors of an extra $1 billion in supply chain costs during the third quarter
  • Emerging Markets Start Sending Out Warning Signals Against The Soaring Dollar
  • Market Extra: Why investors fear a full-percentage-point Fed rate hike would ‘unnerve’ Wall Street

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

September 20, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 20, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

 Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Record breaking heat anticipated over the Central and Southern U.S
through midweek; strong Canadian cold front to bring relief over the
Plains...

...Increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage over the Pacific Northwest
and Four Corners Region could cause isolated-scattered flash flooding...

19 September 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Investors See Volatile Trading Ahead Of The Fed’s Next Possible 100-Point Rate Hike, Inflation Remains High

September 19, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 197 points or 0.64%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.76%,
  • S&P 500 up 0.69%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 85 up 0.45%,
  • USD $109.63 strengthened 0.12%,
  • Gold $1683 up 0.02%,
  • Bitcoin $19,514 up 0.45% – Session Low 18,340,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.487 Unchanged,

Today’s Economic Releases:

In another sign that the slowdown in the housing market continues, builder sentiment fell for the ninth straight month in September as the combination of elevated interest rates, persistent building material supply chain disruptions and high home prices continue to take a toll on affordability. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell three points in September to 46, the lowest level since May 2014 with the exception of the spring of 2020.

In a still-tight labor market, 85% of companies are actively hiring, up from 81% in the spring of this year. Despite the need for workers, 53% of companies expect a recession and 31% are taking actions to prepare for a slowdown, according to new survey results from global outplacement and executive leadership coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:
  • Gasoline Prices See Longest Downward Streak Since 2015
  • Germany’s Natural Gas Storage Will Last For Two And A Half Months
  • FAA rejects proposal to halve flight-time requirement for pilots as shortage prompts route cuts
  • Tesla Is Hiking Supercharger Prices “Significantly” Across Europe
  • Powerful Earthquake Shakes Central Mexico, Tsunami Warning Issued
  • US Gas Producers Struggle To Meet Demand: Kemp
  • Dow closes nearly 200 points higher, stocks snap two-day losing streak to start big Fed week

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

September 19, 2022 Looking Ahead 28 Days Plus our usual 48-hour report.

September 19, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4 pm EDT September 19, 2022 with respect to Hurricane Fiona and the Day 1 and Day 2 CONUS forecasts

The heat is moving from west to east. It is fairly dry and that also is tending to move from west to east also. It is almost an Autumn pattern.

NOAA updates many of its weather outlooks daily or even more frequently and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. We provide a daily report which focuses on the shorter-term predictions but has links to all the partial-month outlooks. One of the reports issued by NOAA only gets updated on Fridays and since this covers weeks 3 and 4 it is very important. The discussion that gets issued with this week 3-4 NOAA report is often where possible changes to the weather pattern are first identified.

So we have decided to issue a special report on Fridays (which most will read on Saturday) in which for a subset of the information, we show the actual forecast maps not just provide the links. This makes it easier for the reader. We will also include at the end of the article the other information from the daily article

When the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued on Friday, we have a 28-day view of the future. It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts. In some weeks the 28-Outlook is published a day or two late because there are other articles to publish and we want each to be featured on the Econcurrents.com website for a while. So we can end up with a 27-day or 26-day outlook. But the other maps usually are up to date at the time of publishing.

The regular 48-hour forecast article is included in this article and follows the 28-Day Analysis.

JAMSTEC Issues their Three-Season Forecast based on September 1, 2022 ENSO Conditions

September 18, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here comes El Nino – is that possible?

JAMSTEC is predicting a more rapid demise of La Nina and a rapid onset of El Nino conditions. Thus we should expect their forecast to differ dramatically from the NOAA forecast.  Is it reasonable to predict a rapid change to El Nino? It is certainly possible. But it is not the majority opinion. Certainly, three La Ninas in a row build up the warm water in the IndoPacific Warm Pool. So I am presenting the JAMSTEC forecast as an alternative perspective.

I am going to first show the JAMSTEC forecasts by month and then by season. I will also show two of the indices they use in their model. One of those indices relates to the Indian Ocean Dipole which will also be discussed.

September 18, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 18, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 6 pm EDT September 18, 2022  to provide updated information on Hurricane Fiona

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Rain and below-normal temperatures are expected across portions of
California and the Pacific Northwest into next week...

...Well-above normal to record-breaking temperatures are forecast for
portions of the central to southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley
next week...

...Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are expected for parts of the
Midwest today and tomorrow...