October 7, 2022 Looking Ahead 28 Days Plus our usual 48-hour report.

October 8, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated on October 9, 2022 at 10:30 a.m. EDT rather than publishing a new more abbreviated article today.

NOAA updates many of its weather outlooks daily or even more frequently and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. We provide a daily report which focuses on the shorter-term predictions but also has links to all the partial-month outlooks. Because WordPress does not provide the ability to have these maps automatically updated, our daily report shows some of the maps which we update each evening plus the links to the other important weather forecast Maps.

Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the next 28 days.

The week 3-4 outlook is only updated by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Service once a week on Friday. Thus, when we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the media and online.

We also include In Part II of the article the other information from the daily 48-hour forecast article. Importantly, this time of the year, it includes updates on tropical events. In both Parts I and II we include some worldwide forecasts also. We also include tonight an interesting podcast that reviews the summer monsoon and discusses how the La Nina will impact Fall and Winter.

It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts If you read this article a few days or more after it is published. And there will be a totally updated version next Friday.

07 October 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Stocks Fall, Treasury Yields Rise, Crude Prices Continue To Climb Unabated

October 7, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 630 points or 2.11%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 3.80%,
  • S&P 500 down 2.80%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $93 up $3.66,
  • USD $112.87 up $0.64,
  • Gold $1695 up $1.36
  • Bitcoin $19,445 down 2.89% – Session Low 19,364,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.885% up 0.061%
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -3 to 762 Canada +2 to 215

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in September 2022, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality and in health care. The prime reason the unemployment rate dropped was the civilian workforce was reduced by 59,000 (all while the population increased by 172,000). As you can see from the graph below, the monthly employment gains have been moderating for almost a year.

August 2022 sales of merchant wholesalers were up 0.1% month-over-month and were up 16.1% year-over-year. Total inventories of merchant wholesalers were up 1.3% month-over-month and were up 25.0% year-over-year.
The inventories/sales ratio was 1.31 while the August 2021 ratio was 1.21. Generally speaking, there is no correlation between inventory/sales ratios and recessions except that the ratios spike when a recession is underway.

CoreLogic’s updated damage estimates for Hurricane Ian are in, with an estimated $41 billion to $70 billion in insured and uninsured wind, storm surge, and inland flood losses to residential and commercial properties in the U.S. For a full breakdown of estimates, read the complete analysis.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Crude Oil Prices Set To Finish Week With Major Gain
  • Biden Warns Of Nuclear Armageddon As Russia Faces Setbacks In Ukraine
  • U.S. Rig Count Slides Amid Jump In Crude Prices
  • Biden’s Nuclear “Armageddon” Statements Not Based In Any Evidence: US Intelligence
  • Futures Movers: Oil up a 5th session, with U.S. prices gaining nearly 17% for the week after OPEC+ production cuts

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

October 6, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

October 7, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Temperatures plunging across the Central U.S. as strong cold front
pushes southward...

...Much improved conditions in the Northeast through Friday before cooler
air filters in behind cold front...

...Daily showers and thunderstorms continue for the Southern Rockies/High
Plains and the Southwest, with isolated instances of flash flooding
possible...

...Pleasant weather across much of the West through the end of the week...

06 October 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Looking Tired, Wall Street Saw A Sideways Sliding To A Negative Closing Effectively Stopping Another Rally

October 6, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 347 points or 1.15%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.68%,
  • S&P 500 down 1.03%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $89 up $1.01,
  • USD $112.12 up $0.91,
  • Gold $1714 up $0.43
  • Bitcoin $20,019 down 0.7% – Session Low 19,910,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.820% up 0.61%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Economic Releases:

Small business owners reporting labor quality as their top business operating problem remains elevated at 22% in September, according to NFIB’s monthly jobs report. Labor cost reported as the single most important problem to business owners was unchanged at 10%.

In September 2022, the Services PMI registered 56.7%, 0.2 percentage points lower than August’s reading of 56.9%. The Business Activity Index registered 59.1%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points compared to the reading of 60.9% the previous month. The business activity index correlates better to economic activity. An index value of 50% separates expansion and contraction.

In the week ending October 1, the 4-week moving average for initial unemployment insurance claims was 206,500, an increase of 250 from the previous week’s revised average. This data is saying the economy is relatively stable.

How Much Trouble Are YOU In with home prices? Elliott Wave International just released a NEW report that shows you the dangers — and opportunities — unfolding now in key property markets around the world. If you own a home — or are thinking about buying one — you need to read this report. Get it FREE for a limited time at elliottwave.com now ($29 value).

U.S.-based employers announced 29,989 cuts in September, a 46.4% increase from the 20,485 cuts announced in August. It is 67.6% higher than the 17,898 cuts announced in the same month last year, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Automakers Are Struggling To Secure Steel Supply
  • Cardboard Cars: The Race To Build The Worlds Most Sustainable EV
  • Pentagon awards $200 million spacecraft contract to private venture York
  • United Airlines is aiming to have electric planes flying by 2030
  • Gun industry faces a new wave of lawsuits that could reshape how firearms are sold
  • Feds Have Enough Evidence To Slap Hunter Biden With Tax, Gun Charges: WaPo
  • US Gasoline Demand Unexpectedly Soars To Highest In Five Years As Inventories Crater
  • Train strike: Only one in five services set to run on Saturday
  • Futures Movers: Oil up a 4th session, with Brent prices at their highest in a month after OPEC+ agrees to an output cut

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

October 5, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

October 6, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Conditions finally improving across the Northeast as pesky upper-level
low moves further offshore...

...Plunging temperatures in the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi
Valley as a potent cold front begins pushing southward late Wednesday...

...Daily showers and thunderstorms continue for the Southern Rockies and
High Plains, with isolated instances of flash flooding possible...

...Pleasant weather across much of the West through the end of the week...
October 6, 1982

October 6, 1982

October 6, 2022Posted inopinionNo Comments

Do you remember what you were doing on October 6, 1982?

Perhaps not, as it was exactly 40 years ago.

But I do, because it was a special day for me – I finally “escaped” from “communist China” on that day – I left China for Japan on October 6, 1982!

05 October 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Closes In The Red With The Three Major Indices Closing Fractionally Lower

October 5, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 42 points or 0.14%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.25%,
  • S&P 500 down 0.20%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $88 up $1.45
  • USD $111.06 up $0.86,
  • Gold $1717 up $0.75
  • Bitcoin $20,209 down 0.7% – Session Low 19,788,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.753% up 0.14%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Economic Releases:

The goods and services deficit was $67.4 billion in August 2022, down $3.1 billion from $70.5 billion in July. Yes, the trade deficit has been shrinking because imports have been shrinking whilst exports have remained relatively level (see graph below). Generally a decline in imports is a sign the economy is slowing.

Private sector employment increased by 208,000 jobs in September 2022 according to the September ADP National Employment Report. The biggest gains were in the trade / transportation / utilities sector. The ADP numbers were good this month showing employment remains strong – but historically ADP has not been a good indicator (blue line on graph below) for this Friday’s BLS non-farm private employment (red line on graph below).

Elliott Wave International just released a NEW report that shows you the dangers — and opportunities — unfolding now in key property markets around the world. If you own a home — or are thinking about buying one — you need to read this report. Get it FREE for a limited time at elliottwave.com now ($29 value).

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Russia Signs Fuel Deal With Taliban
  • Tokyo Scientists Announce Breakthrough In CO2 Conversion Tech
  • SpaceX launches Crew-5 mission for NASA, carrying astronauts to space station
  • Mortgage applications plummet 14% as higher interest rates and Hurricane Ian crush demand
  • Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Tesla, Enphase Energy, Exxon Mobil, and more
  • High mortgage rates, tight supply, and economic uncertainty: Here’s what’s happening with home prices
  • Average two-year mortgage rate highest for 14 years
  • Is the stock market rally a case of dead cat bounce or festive cheer?

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

October 4, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

October 5, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

  Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Rainy, breezy, and cool conditions persist from the Mid-Atlantic to
southern New England through Wednesday...

...Showers and thunderstorms in the Southwest, with isolated heavy
rainfall...

...Above-average temperatures throughout the Plains and Midwest before a
strong cold front begins pushing southward late Wednesday...

...Pleasant weather across the Pacific Northwest and California through
the end of the week...

04 October 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street’s Second Day Rally Sends The Dow Over 820 Points, Closing At Session High

October 4, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 825 points or 2.80%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 3.34%,
  • S&P 500 up 3.06%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $86 up $2.63
  • USD $110.44 down $1.23,
  • Gold $1725 up $31.60,
  • Bitcoin $20,198 up 3.41% – Session Low 19,519,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.635% down 0.02%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Economic Releases:

Home Price Trends from CoreLogic Through August 2022 showed year-over-year home price appreciation slowed to 13.5% in August, the fourth consecutive month of lower annual growth. Price growth is projected to decelerate to 3.2% by August 2023, with more metro areas now likely to see decreases.

The number of job openings decreased to 10.1 million on the last business day of August Hires and total separations were little changed at 6.3 million and 6.0 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (4.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) were little changed. The bottom line is that job openings are still significantly high, but it appears business in general either is faced with a slowing marketplace or is figuring out how to get by without additional hiring.

New orders for manufactured goods in August 2022, down two consecutive months, were down but virtually unchanged. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.01, down from 6.05 in July. Inventories, down two consecutive months, decreased $1.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $800.2 billion. This followed a virtually unchanged July decrease. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.46, down from 1.47 in July. This data release is indicating manufacturing is pretty much stable.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Iranian Rial Plunges To Record Low
  • High mortgage rates, tight supply, and economic uncertainty: Here’s what’s happening with home prices
  • Ford’s sales up 16% in third quarter, despite September decline
  • Manhattan apartment sales declined 18% in third quarter, as rates rose and markets fell
  • Four States Deploy National Guard To US-Mexico Border
  • Experts Warn Homebuyers Of Red Flags Beyond Climbing Interest Rates
  • Elon Musk Twitter deal back on in surprise u-turn

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

October 3, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

October 4, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Rainy, breezy, and cool conditions expand from Mid-Atlantic to southern
New England coast...

...Showers and thunderstorms expected across much of New Mexico...

...Above average temperatures forecast for the West Coast, Great Plains
and Mississippi Valley...