EconCurrents

Wall Street opened sharply down and traded sideways in a narrow range until the Fed released today’s minutes reveling its policy tightening plans. Equities immediately pushed the three indexes sharply higher, then slid to a new session low . After reaching the bottom, the BTFDers picked up the slack, aggressively pushing the indexes higher. Finally, realizing profits, the markets slacked off and then closed down after a wild afternoon trading stint.

Deutsche Bank became the first major bank to predict that the US economy would fall into a recession late next year because the Fed was too late to the rate-hike game. “Moody’s Analytics put the odds of one at 33% (at least), Goldman Sachs estimates there’s a 35% chance, and former president of the New York Fed, William Dudley, said it was “virtually inevitable”—so let’s go with 99%,” said SA this morning.

Fed minutes suggest plans to ‘expeditiously’ raise interest rates while trimming the central bank’s $9 trillion balance sheet.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• WTI Crude Falls 5% As IEA Agrees To 120 Million Barrels SPR Release
• Levi Strauss Earnings Top Estimates As Shoppers Buy At Higher Prices, Denim Retailer Reaffirms 2022 Outlook
• Scientists Divided On Need For 4th COVID Shot After The FDA Quietly Approved Another Round Of Boosters
• Jetblue Is Willing To Spend $3.6 Billion On Spirit To Compete Against Giant Airlines

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

The U.S. markets closed down on light red volume, while Bitcoin briefly hit $47K. Dogecoin is also higher at $0.1653. Unfortunately, Brainard’s comments seemed to negatively influence the market’s final hour after he said the balance sheet reduction occurring soon and ‘at a rapid pace.’

Today, the DOW’s losses were to losses from Boeing and Salesforce, Inc. In addition, the NASDAQ fell more than 2.3%, leading to stock-market losses as investors continue to observe the Ukraine/Russian fiasco plus weigh the Fed’s policy path. However, low red volume today suggests a wait-and-see posture on what the Fed will say on Wednesday.

Jamie Dimon warns of ‘volatile markets’ as the Fed shifts policy. JP Morgan chief’s annual shareholder letter predicts ‘inflation will eventually start to recede.’ JP Morgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon also flagged the “strength of the U.S. economy” in his annual letter to shareholders on Monday, citing “plentiful jobs with wage increases and more than $2T in excess savings.” The consumer is in “excellent financial shape (on average),” he added, while leverage is “among the lowest on record.”

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Gas Production Set To Fall On Lack Of Pipelines
• Developers Are Flooding Arizona With Homes Even As Historic Western Drought Intensifies
• Gm And Honda To Develop Affordable Electric Vehicles That Cost Less Than $30,000
• Brainard Batters Bonds, Stocks, Bullion, & Bitcoin With ‘Fast & Furious’ QT Threat
• Bond Investors See The Prospect Of A More Deeply Inverted Yield Curve Ahead

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Today, stocks on the global indexes rose, with the NASDAQ leading gains on Wall Street as traders shook off recession fears and bought technology shares that lost share position in the first quarter. They were among the hardest-hit sectors in the first quarter as investors feared the Fed’s rate-hiking plans could hinder the group.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar strengthened (98.99) as European leaders urged further sanctions against Moscow following war crime allegations in Ukraine.

In his annual letter to shareholders, JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon wrote, “The U.S. economy is strong… Excellent mortgage underwriting, plentiful jobs with wage increases, and more than $2T in excess savings, mostly due to government stimulus. The consumer is in excellent financial shape, and leverage is among the lowest on record. Banks also performed magnificently during the COVID-19 crisis… helping to weather the terrible financial storm while setting aside extensive reserves for potential future loan losses.”

Gold markets have stabilized (1931 level) following three weeks of decline, recording an uptick of 0.36 percent despite upcoming interest rate hikes priced into the market. Prices rose to $1,931 per oz., up from $1,925 yesterday, with markets increasingly influenced by reactions to Ukraine/Russian geopolitical events.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Gold Finds Stability As Recession Fears Rise
• U.S. Drilling Activity Has Risen 60% In One Year
• Ford’s First-Quarter Sales Fell 17% As The Automaker Battled A Chip Shortage
• Bullion, Big-Tech, & Black Gold Bid; Bitcoin Battered As Bond Curve Steepens
• Stocks Didn’t Rally Despite Inverted Yield Curve, They Rallied Because Of It, Says Veteran Strategist

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

The three major indexes on Wall Street closed in the green after trading in the red for half of today’s session on average volume. The rise appears to be a “Let’s Wait And See What Happens Next” session.

Some analysts reported that today’s financial reports were good, while I see interesting issues. The Unemployment Rate is down to 3.6%, but the Non-Farm Payroll’s dropped radically from 750K to 431K. Government Payrolls crashed from 11K to 5K while ISM Manufacturing New Orders slipped from 61.7 to 53.8. None of this is good news regarding recession fears.

Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count rose from 531 to 533; however, oil fell the most in 2 years after President Bidens oil stockpile release.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Biden’s SPR Release Sends Oil Prices Below $100
• U.S. Oil Demand Has Been Vastly Overestimated
• Biden’s Top Economic Advisor Says Restarting The Keystone Xl Pipeline Now Won’t Lower Oil Prices
• Banks Battered & Trannies Trounced Amid Yield Curve & Commodity Carnage
• Trucker Stocks Plunge After First Post-COVID Job Losses As Freight Recession Loom

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Wall Street’s three major indexes opened down and followed the trend line from yesterday’s closing session. Walgreens Boots, Home Depot share losses contribute to the Dow’s 550-point fall to end the worst quarter for stocks in 2 years. Wall Street retreats as S&P 500 makes its largest quarterly drop in two years.

The final hour of today’s session pushed the DOW and NASDAQ indexes below the 200 days SMA, and the DOW closed at its session bottom. In addition, today’s trading volume was again fractionally lower than average. This action does not bode well for a continued bull run, or investors’ inflation fear reversal.

U.S. oil prices fell 7% to close above $100 as President Biden announced the release from the U.S. SPR and asked oil companies to increase their drilling to boost crude supplies. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for May delivery settled down $7.54, at $100.28 a barrel, after reaching a session low of $99.66.

Initial Jobless Claims, Personal Spending fell while Personal Income rose. Weekly jobless claims rose to 202,000, above last week’s 53-year low, and Quarterly Grain Stocks – Wheat, Corn, and Soy were down, adding fear to a coming recession.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Worlds Top Banks Financed Fossil Fuels With $742 Billion In 2021
• Get Ready To Pay More For Your Next Flight
• Zinc Is Facing A Massive Supply Squeeze
• Global Bonds Suffer Worst Drawdown Ever As Massive March ‘Squeeze’ Rescues Stocks From Rout
• With Few New Cars On Lots, U.S. Auto Sales Likely Fell Sharply In The First Quarter, Analysts Say
• JPMorgan Admits Central Banks Need A Recession “To Cure Inflation”
• Project Syndicate: Putin’s War Will Destroy Russia

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Wall Street opened mostly down as the DOW traded zig-zag across the unchanged line and finally snapped its four-day winning streak. The major indexes started to slide further into the red with NASDAQ making the steepest plunge closing near the session bottom. WTI settled at 107, slightly down, but remaining above its support. It appears that the S&P 500 has exitied correction territory – for now!

Today’s session traded on fractionally low red volume, yesterday, it was low green volume. This tells me many traders are remaining on the sidelines to see what the Fed’s are going to do about inflation. Many analysts are making dire predictions for a global recession that could happen withing two years.

If anything, the war in Ukraine and inflation remain the most important worries investors have in today’s market arena. Many EU countries are now asking citizens to curb or restrict gas consumption. In addition, investors are carefully watching diesel availability as that tends to drive inflation more than other indicators. However, recent signs of progress for peace talks between Ukraine and Russia waned against a backdrop of a hawkish central bank denting economic growth.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Netherlands Asks Citizens To Restrict Gas Consumption
• Biden Administration Signals No Gulf Of Mexico Leases Through 2023
• Poland Aims To Stop Using Russian Oil By End-2022
• FEC Fines Hillary Clinton, DNC Over Steele Dossier Hoax
• S&P 500 Exits Correction: Here’s What History Says Happens Next To U.S. Stock-Market Benchmark

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Wall Street gapped up at the opening today and traded sideways until late afternoon when the three main indexes recorded their session highs.

Today’s main talking points are about taxing the rich and the battles of the words being exchanged are bipartisan as you might expect. Sen. Elizabeth Warren says billionaires should pay more taxes. “I’m happy to celebrate success, but let’s remember, Elon Musk didn’t make it on his own,” the Massachusetts Democrat told CNBC on Tuesday.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Why Oil Prices Are Finally Falling
• Government Solutions Will Make The Gasoline Problem Worse: Peter Schiff
• Sen. Elizabeth Warren Says Billionaires Should Pay More Taxes To Help The ‘Next Elon Musk’
• Aircraft Leasing Giant Casts Doubt On Renting To Russian Airlines Again After Putin Seizes Planes
• ‘Russia-Reversal’ Report Routs Oil & Gold, Bonds Signal Recession Inevitable

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.