My Letter Exchange with President Biden
I voted for Joe Biden in the 2020 Presidential election. I also strongly supported his Presidency from the start. Below is my letter to him dated April 7, 2021:
JAMSTEC Seasonal Outlook for Spring and Summer of 2022
I should have reported this a couple of weeks ago after NOAA issued their Seasonal Outlook. JAMSTEC is a well respected Japanese Research Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. They have a proprietary forecast model and every month they normally issue a three-season forecast. This month they only looked out two seasons. I think it is useful to look at more than one forecast as it provides to some extent an assessment of the variability one might expect in the observed weather compared to the forecasts. This is usually due to slight differences in the strength and timing of the ENSO Cycle. As discussed in this article, both NOAA and JAMSTEC may be working with assumptions about the ENSO cycle that may turn out to be incorrect. So this may limit our ability to forecast even as far out as this summer.
27Jan2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Gives Up Strong Early Gains To Close Lower In Another Volatile Session, DOW Ends In The Red But Nearly Flat On The Session, Tesla Drops 10%
Headlines:
JPMorgan: Not enough capitulation to call a bottom.
US economy has grown at the fastest pace in decades.
The two-year Treasury yield posts its biggest one-day gain
CEO Elon Musk talked up Tesla’s longer-term ambitions to develop a robotaxi and a humanoid robot that could work in factories.
Angry stocks come to terms with hawkish Fed as yield curve screams ‘policy error.’ DOW ends the session flat, down 7 points, NASDAQ down 1.4%, and the S&P 500 down 0.5%.
Algos lifted everything overnight, sellers appeared at the cash open, and it was a one-way trip to yesterday’s lows (or worse) for the rest of the day. Small Caps are down 5% from pre-Fed, Nasdaq is down over 3%, and The Dow is down around 1%.
In other news, Economic activity jumped by 5.7% in 2021, but analysts expect growth to slow this year. Treasury yield curve shrinks to narrowest levels in years as two-year rate has biggest daily gain since March 2020in almost two years on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve pointed to the possibility of a series of interest-rate hikes.
As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.
26Jan2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Today Was Not The Wall Street Turnaround Day, Major Indexes Closed In The Red, But Showing A Net Gain For The Week
Global oil benchmark tops $90 for the first time since 2014, WTI settled at 86.55. Oil prices are at their highest level in more than seven years, adding to inflationary pressures seen across the economy. The DOW closed down 87 points, NASDAQ flat at +0.02%, S&P 500 closed down 0.2%.
While the situation along the Ukrainian border appears to be deescalating – aside from US/UK’s panic coalition, a top Russian official says that if the West follows through on a threat to cut the Kremlin off from the SWIFT payment system, Europe won’t receive Russian oil, gas, or metals.
This afternoon, Tesla shares fell 5% in extended trading after the automaker reported fourth-quarter results that came in stronger than expected. Earnings (adjusted): $2.52 per share, vs. $2.36 per share and revenue: $17.72 billion, vs. $16.57 billion expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. Tesla closed at 937.41 USD +19.01, up 2.07%.
Thursday is likely to see a jittery start to the day; the levels of 17300 and 17430 may act as immediate resistance points. The supports come in at 17180 and 17000 levels. As a result, the trading range will stay a little wider than usual.
In other news, Liberal supreme court justice Breyer plans to retire before the midterms. 10-year Treasury yield rises above 1.85% after Fed signals a rate hike in March and more after that. The Fed missed the 7% surge in U.S. inflation, but Powell vows to get it back to 2%. Goldman says: It’s time to buy the dip.
As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.
Three New Kingdoms
By “three new kingdoms”, I mean the U.S., China, and Russia. I call them the “three new kingdoms”, because of their striking resemblance to the “three kingdoms” in ancient China. The three new kingdoms have been fighting against one another since 1945 and will continue to do so in the coming decades.
25Jan2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Fat Lady continues to sing despite slight cough, DOW closed down 67 Points, NASDAQ Down 2.3%, S&P 500 down 1.2%, Dogecoin $0.1427
The continuing stock market crash shows a possible recovery trend but tread with ultimate caution. The market decline also temporarily halted the oil price rally, but oil prices rebounded this morning.
Many things are weighing on the market today including
- inflation concerns,
- The Conference Board’s January consumer confidence declined,
- the Russia / Ukraine tensions,
- the potential of federal funds rate increases,
Also released today, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices showed that November 2021 home prices were up 18.3% year-over-year for the 20-city composite – although it was down from 18.5% in October.
G.M. is spending $6.6 billion on E.V. plant investments in a bid to dethrone Tesla in electric car sales by 2025. It projects it will sell more than 1 million E.V.s globally by mid-decade and overtake Tesla as the top US-based seller of electric vehicles.
In other news, Microsoft tumbles despite beating across the board, topping $50 billion in quarterly sales. Looking at Microsoft’s earnings reported moments after the close, which beat from the top to the bottom line, one would think that the stock is soaring after hours – NOT!
Another day, another Musk tweet pumps Dogecoin up 9%. Musk, the founder of Tesla and SpaceX, said he would eat a Happy Meal on T.V. if Fast food giant McDonald’s started accepting Dogecoin.
As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.
24Jan2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Reverse Course And Gain Today
The financial markets continue in correction territory but edged up beginning midday as the markets now believe there will be no federal funds rate hike approved during the FOMC meeting scheduled this week.
Economic releases today:
- The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.15 in December from +0.44 in November. This is the most accurate coincident indicator which is now showing a slowing rate of economic growth BUT still the national economy is expanding above its historical trend (average) rate of growth.
- The December 2021 Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) Household Spending Survey continues to show a rise in monthly household spending growth – now well above pre-pandemic levels.
The markets improved today with the DOW up 0.3%, NASDAQ up 0.6%, and the S&P up 0.3%. Bitcoin declined to $36,150. WTI crude declined to $85.14. Gold inched up to $1,838.
As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.
21Jan2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Fat Lady Is Singing: The Bear Are In Charge, 2022’s Tech-Wreck Is Worst In Over 30 Years, Markets On Track For Worst Week In More Than A Year
Wall Street open down but the BTFD investors moved the major indexes into the green, then bears chased them away and the equities slipped into the doldrums. The DOW ended down 450 points, NASDAQ down a whopping 2.7%, and the S&P 500 cratered down 1.9%.
A scary beginning of 2022 for clean energy stocks. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are under pressure on the last day of the week, amid an unexpected rise in U.S. crude and fuel inventories.
In other news, it has been two years since COVID was first confirmed in U.S. Recent studies show the pandemic is worse than anyone imagined.
The market is sending The Fed some very clear signals as it prices in an aggressive rate-hiking trajectory this year (just as the economic data starts to gravely disappoint) warning that it is ‘panicking.’
Tensions over Ukraine aren’t rattling financial markets so far, but investors still appear likely to snap up traditional safe-haven assets should Russia invade, market watchers said.
As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.
NOAA Updates their Four-Season Outlook on January 20, 2022
Introduction
Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued their Seasonal Outlook. In this article I summarize it and provide links that will take the reader to additional maps and discussions that I have not included but I have included quite a bit in this article. I want to remind everyone that last Thursday NOAA issued their ENSO outlook and that has a lot of influence on their Seasonal Outlook. The Seasonal Outlook generally reflects La Nina conditions initially with a transition to ENSO Neutral in late Spring. Over the next three months, the Southern Tier drought intensifies but there is relief in the Northwest extending east but not reaching the Dakotas.
20Jan2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Stocks Pump’n’dump, Bitcoin Jumps As Us Macro Slumps, Major Indexes Closed Sharply Down, Continuing The Bear Run
Wall Street remained green until 11 AM with NASDAQ up 1.0%, then craters at the 3 PM mark. The DOW closed down 313 points, matching yesterday’s closing. NASDAQ closed down 1.3%, and the S&P 500 closed down 1.1%. NASDAQ gives up a 2% gain turns negative in the final hour of trading. Bitcoin a “bit” higher at 41800 and Dogecoin steady at $0.1647.
Other news, OPECs Oil Market Share In India Drops to 15-Year Low and Peloton to halt production of its Bikes treadmills as demand wanes. According to internal documents obtained by CNBC, Peloton is temporarily stopping the production of its connected fitness products. The firm’s shares fell more than 20% as investors worry that demand for its expensive exercise machines is waning.
Shares of autonomous driving tech company Luminar rise on the Mercedes-Benz deal, and investing legend Jeremy Grantham turns apocalyptic and expects stocks to crater 50% in the largest wealth destruction in U.S. history.
As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.