18Oct2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: A Good Day For The Markets As Oil Prices Continue To Fall

October 18, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 338 points or 1.12%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.9%,
  • S&P 500 up 1.14%,
  • Gold $1656 down $7.80,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $83 down $2.37,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.996% down 0.019%,
  • USD index $112.03 little changed,
  • Bitcoin $19,373 down $275

Today’s Economic Releases:

September 2022 Industrial production increased 5.3% year-over-year with the components: manufacturing up 4.8% year-over-year; mining up 11.1% year-over-year; and utilities up 0.5% year-over-year. All components improved over the previous month.

U.S. single-family home rental costs posted an 11.4% year-over-year increase in August 2022, marking the fourth straight month of annual deceleration. Even so, rental costs remained elevated, with annual growth running at about five times the rate than in August 2020 in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. A shortage of available rental units continues to fuel price growth, although inflation and worries over a looming recession should begin to temper increases. CoreLogic’s detailed view by rental prices:

  • Lower-priced (75% or less than the regional median): 12.9%, up from 7.4% in August 2021
  • Lower-middle priced (75% to 100% of the regional median): 12.8%, up from 8.3% in August 2021
  • Higher-middle priced (100% to 125% of the regional median): 12.3%, up from 9.4% in August 2021
  • Higher-priced (125% or more than the regional median): 10.1%, down from 10.7% in August 2021

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Chinese Steel Manufacturers On The Brink Of Bankruptcy
  • Rio Tinto Warns Commodity Boom Is Coming To An End As Downside Risks Emerge
  • Is The Global Semiconductor Supply Squeeze Finally Coming To An End?
  • Oil Prices Continue to Fall To Levels Not Seen In Weeks
  • Homebuilder sentiment drops to half of what it was six months ago
  • Is Wind Energy Becoming Too Expensive?

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

October 17, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

October 18, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.

...Widespread record tying/breaking morning lows will bring first freeze
of the season to portions of the Midwest and South...

...Wintry precipitation continues for the Great Lakes Region...

...Heavy rain forecast for Maine on Tuesday, with scattered instances of
flash flooding possible...

17 October 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Reverses Downward Trend By Closing Moderately Higher In The Green

October 17, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 551 points or 1.86%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 3.43%,
  • S&P 500 up 2.65%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $85.49 down $0.13,
  • USD $112.13 down $1.18,
  • Gold $1653 up $4.20,
  • Bitcoin $19,543 up 1.04% – Session Low 19,156,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.021% up 0.013%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Economic Releases:

The New York Fed’s Manufacturing Survey headline general business conditions index declined eight points to -9.1 in October 2022 (negative numbers suggest worsening conditions). As manufacturing is a minor component of the economy, this indicator by itself is unable to warn of a recession – having said that it does usually suggest an economy which is not strong.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Putin Blames Outsiders As Central Asia Turns Its Back On Russia
  • Why The Lack Of Public Charging Infrastructure Isn’t Deterring EV Buyers
  • Gasoline Prices See Abrupt Decline As U.S. Diesel Prices Continue To Rise
  • WWE stock hits 52-week high, defying market trends, in aftermath of McMahon scandal
  • Stellantis debuts pure-electric Jeep, pledges new target on energy self-sufficiency
  • White House Scrambles After Biden Suggests Pakistan’s Nukes Are ‘Unsafe’
  • Futures Movers: Oil prices end lower as traders weigh recession fears versus tight crude supplies

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

October 16, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

October 17, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.

...Flash flooding concerns for southern Texas today then Maine on
Tuesday...

...Unsettled and windy weather will spread from the Great Lakes to New
England over next couple of days...

...Cold air sweeps through eastern half of the country while record warmth
continues across Northwest...

NOAA Updates it’s October 2022 ENSO Outlook

October 16, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has again been adjusted slightly from the prior month. The IRI analysis suggests it could be slightly later than it appeared last month. Also, the probability that it will extend into the winter is much higher. So what I anticipated as being a three-peat now looks to be a certainty. There is some disagreement on when this La Nina will end with the best guess being perhaps February or March.

But I actually see no sign of it starting to happen. But all the meteorologists agree that it will.  Could they all be wrong?

I also include some interesting graphics that show the impact of the combination of La Nina and what NOAA calls “trend” which is a combination of Global Warming and long cycles.  I find them interesting. The IOD is about over so the weather in the  Indian Ocean should return to something more like normal. The three phases of ENSO basically impact the entire world. It does appear that this third La Nina winter may be quite different from last year. But I will address that when NOAA issues their Seasonal Outlook for the U.S. and when I publish the JAMSTEC world outlook which I already have and I will probably publish it very soon.

October 15, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

October 16, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Flash flooding and severe weather risks shift southeast from the Desert
Southwest today to southern Texas by Monday...

...Severe weather possible across Oklahoma into tonight; unsettled weather
spreading from the Great Lakes into New England and parts of the
Mid-Atlantic Sunday into Monday...

...Surge of colder air overspreading the northern Plains by Monday while
record warmth gradually moderates across the Pacific Northwest...

October 14, 2022 Looking Ahead 28 Days Plus our usual 48-hour report.

October 15, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Day One and Two Maps updated at 5pm EDT on October 15, 2022

NOAA updates many of its weather outlooks daily or even more frequently and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. We provide a daily report which focuses on the shorter-term predictions but also has links to all the partial-month outlooks. Because WordPress does not provide the ability to have these maps automatically updated, our daily report shows some of the maps which we update each evening plus the links to the other important weather forecast Maps.

Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the next 28 days.

The week 3-4 outlook is only updated by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Service once a week on Friday. Thus, when we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the media and online.

We also include In Part II of the article the other information from the daily 48-hour forecast article. Importantly, this time of the year, it includes updates on tropical events. In both Parts I and II we also include some worldwide forecasts.

It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts If you read this article a few days or more after it is published. And there will be a totally updated version next Friday.

14 October 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Equities Closed In The Red Losing Half Of Yesterday’s Session Gains Partially Due To So-So Morning Financial Reporting, Trading Volatility, And Bank Earnings

October 14, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 404 points or 1.34%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 3.08%,
  • S&P 500 down 2.37%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $86 down $3.42,
  • USD $113. little changed,
  • Gold $1648 down $28.90,
  • Bitcoin $19,230 down 0.73% – Session Low 19,154,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.006% up 0.052%
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +7 to 769 Canada +1 to 216

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Economic Releases:

U.S. import price growth fell to 6.0% year-over-year in September 2022 from 7.8% in August – lead by  lower fuel and nonfuel prices. Price growth for U.S. exports fell to 9.5% in September from 10.7% in August.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2022 was up 8.2% above September 2021 (blue line on graph below). Total sales for the July 2022 through September 2022 period were up 9.2% from the same period a year ago. Unfortunately, when adjusted for inflation – retail sales fell 0.4% year-over-year (red line on graph below).

The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of August 2022 was 1.33. The August 2021 ratio was 1.27. Generally speaking, a rising ratio (like what is happening now) is a sign of a slowing economy – but with all the issues in the supply chain – not sure this normally good indicator is saying anything.

 

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. Refiners Are Preparing For A Potential Fuel Export Ban
  • U.S. Oil Rig Count Jumps Amid Selloff In Crude
  • U.S. Energy Bills See Largest Rise In Decades – More Pain To Come
  • Kroger agrees to buy rival grocery company Albertsons for $24.6 billion
  • Series I bond interest is expected to fall to roughly 6.48% in November. But that’s still a ‘really good rate,’ experts say
  • 3 takeaways from our daily meeting: New market leaders, banks report, Club stocks next week
  • Consumer spending was flat in September and below expectations as inflation takes toll
  • Americans Are Getting Poorer: Price Inflation Grew Faster Than Wages Again In September
  • Market Extra: ‘Growing wealth gap and rising inflation … hurt the global economy at almost every turn,’ Jamie Dimon tells MarketWatch on its anniversary

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.