NOAA Updates their October 2022 Outlook on September 30, 2022

October 2, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

 Drought expands in the Southern and to a lesser extent Central Great Plains. Anomalous wetness centered on Colorado and a cool/wet Mid-Atlantic Region.

At the end of every month, NOAA updates their Outlook for the following month which in this case is October. They also issue a Drought Outlook for the following month. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for October and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We highlighted some of the important changes within the NOAA Discussion.

Of significant interest is the Drought Outlook for October. Tropical activity has eliminated the East Coast Drought but we are beginning the increase in drought for the Great Plains that will likely continue until the end of this La Nina.

We have also included four months of Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks and also a map showing the year-to-date precipitation in the West. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World

October 1, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

October 2, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Appalachians through Sunday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Great
Basin and the Central Rockies from Sunday into Monday morning...

...Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees below average over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic...

September 30. 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

October 1, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Ian to continue moving inland across the Carolinas this evening,
producing strong winds, heavy rain, and coastal hazards across the
Mid-Atlantic...

...Showers, thunderstorms, and high elevation snow expected across
portions of the Rockies and Southwest...

...Well above average temperatures forecast across the Pacific Northwest...

30Sep2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Down End To A Bad Week As Stocks Take A Beating

September 30, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 495 points or 1.70%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.51%,
  • S&P 500 down 1.45%,
  • Gold $1669 up $0.50,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $80 down $1.56,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.821% up 0.072%,
  • USD index $112.15 weakening 0.1%,
  • Bitcoin $19,439 down $154,
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +1 to 765 rigs

Today’s Economic Releases:

Chicago Business Barometer stabilized in August.  The indicator inched up 0.1 points to 52.2. The only sub-indicators to fall were employment and supplier deliveries, while price paid was unchanged from previous month.

Personal income increased 0.3% at a monthly rate with consumer spending increasing 0.4% in August 2022. When these numbers are adjusted for inflation personal consumption year-over-year growth is up 2.1% whilst income remains in contraction at -4.7% (see graph below). It is interesting that consumption seems to keep on humming whilst income remains underwater.

Michigan Consumer sentiment confirmed the preliminary reading earlier this month and was essentially unchanged from the month prior, at less than one index point above August. Buying conditions for durables and the one-year economic outlook continued lifting from the extremely low readings earlier in the summer, but these gains were largely offset by modest declines in the long run outlook for business conditions. As seen in the chart, sentiment for consumers across the income distribution has declined in a remarkably close fashion for the last 6 months, reflecting shared concerns over the impact of inflation, even among higher-income consumers who have historically generated the lion’s share of spending.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Russia Claims EU Sanctions Are Preventing TurkStream Pipeline Maintenance
  • OPEC Raises Oil Production To Highest Level In Years
  • U.S. Only Lifted Oil Production By 12,000 Bpd In July
  • NASA is working with SpaceX to explore a private mission to extend the life of the Hubble telescope
  • “Panic Seems To Be In The Air”
  • Thousands Stuck On Cruise Ships After Hurricane Shuttered Florida Ports
  • Russia Is Flaring Less And Keeping Natural Gas In The Ground

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

September 29, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 30, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Hurricane Ian forecast to make second landfall in South Carolina Friday
bringing wind, heavy rain, and the threat of severe weather to the
Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic...

...Unseasonably cool temperatures forecast across the Eastern U.S. to
start the weekend...

...Showers and thunderstorms expected across portions of the Rockies,
Great Basin, and Southwest...

29 September 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Tumbles In Broad Market Sell-Off Wiping Out Yesterday’s Gains.

September 29, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 458 points or 1.54%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 2.84%,
  • S&P 500 down 2.11%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $82 unchanged,
  • USD $112.11 down $0.64,
  • Gold $1661 little changed,
  • Bitcoin $19,420 down 0.51% – Session Low 18,883,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.759% up 0.71%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, commodity prices as of the market close.

Today’s Economic Releases:

In the week ending September 24, the 4-week moving average for seasonally adjusted unemployment insurance claims was 207,000, a decrease of 8,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The 4-week moving average continues to moderate.

The third estimate of 2Q2022 Real Gross Domestic Product was unchanged from the previous estimate of -0.6%. This was the second economic decline in a row as 1Q2022 real GDP decreased 1.6%.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • The U.S. Plan To Power 100% Of Its Flights With Renewable Jet Fuel
  • Aluminum Prices Soar By Record 8.5% As LME Weighs Ban On Russian Metals
  • U.S. Planning New Sanctions On Irans Oil Sales
  • Buybuy Baby, a bright spot for Bed Bath & Beyond, reports steep drop in sales against tough comparisons
  • Porsche shares rise in landmark Frankfurt debut
  • US Rail Volumes Fell 4.4% In Latest Week

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

September 28, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 29, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Major Hurricane Ian makes landfall on the west coast of Florida, with
catastrophic storm surge, destructive major-hurricane force winds, and
torrential rainfall ongoing...

...Ian's interaction with a front will likely prolong impacts from high
winds, heavy rain, and flooding even for areas further inland through
Thursday...

...Cool and dry weather for the rest of the eastern half of the country
but heavy rain and strong winds from Ian is forecast to edge toward the
Southeast U.S. on Friday...

...Well above average temperatures persist across much of the West, with
excessive heat continuing over parts of southern California, followed by
arrival of rain and cooler temperatures over the Pacific Northwest later
today and into the northern Rockies on Thursday...

28 September 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Closed Higher And Above Past Two Session’s Resistance. Crude Prices Climb, Mortgage Refinancing Falls

September 28, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 547 points or 1.88%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 2.05%,
  • S&P 500 up 1.96%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $82 up $3.51,
  • USD $112.75 down $1.36,
  • Gold $1661 up $32,
  • Bitcoin $19,543 up 2.69% – Session Low $18,505,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.707% down 0.256%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, commodity prices as of the market close.

Today’s Economic Releases:

As one would expect higher mortgage rates to affect home sales – pending home sales declined for the third straight month in August 2022. Pending homes sales is a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, which fell 2.0% month-over-month and fell 24.2% year-over-year.

7,201,572 single- and multifamily residences in Hurricane Ian’s path with high flash flood risk:

  • The National Hurricane Center (NHC) currently forecasts that the entire state of Florida is at some level of flash flood risk due to heavy rainfall from Hurricane Ian. Most of the state is at moderate (40%) or greater risk. The cities of Tampa Bay and Orlando have a 70% chance of flash flooding (Figure 1).
  • CoreLogic estimates that 7,201,572 single- and multifamily residences (SFRs and MFRs) with a combined total reconstruction value (RCV) of $1.6 trillion are within the “moderate” and “high” flash flood risk bands, as forecasted by NHC (Figure 1). Note, this does not indicate that every single home within these bands will flood, nor that any flooded home will sustain 100% damage up to its full RCV. This estimate accounts for flash flooding only and excludes homes that at risk to riverine and coastal flooding.

Figure 1: Hurricane Ian 1 to 3-day flash flood risk valid September 28 – October 1.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Inflation Reduction Act Is Both Good And Bad News For U.S Biofuels
  • Dallas Fed Survey Sees Activity Increasing At Solid Pace In U.S. Oil And Gas
  • Oil Jumps 4% On Inventory Draw, Hurricane Outages
  • Mortgage refinancing drops to a 22-year low as interest rates surge even higher
  • The Big Short Squeeze Is Coming
  • Market Extra: Did something break? What stock-market investors need to know about mounting global financial stresses

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

September 27, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 28, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Hurricane Ian is forecast to make landfall on the west coast of Florida
late Wednesday; slow forward motion of Ian will likely prolong impacts
from high winds, heavy rain, and flooding even for areas further inland...

...Cool weather expected to persist across the Northeast and Great Lakes
through at least mid-week...

...Well above average temperatures across much of the West, with excessive
heat continuing over parts of southern California, followed by arrival of
rain and cooler temperatures over the Pacific Northwest later on
Wednesday...