As expected, at the 20th CPC (Communist Party of China) National Congress, Xi Jinping was re-elected the party’s General Secretary for the third time, thus paving the way for him to be re-elected the Chinese President for the “precedent-shattering” third term at the next Chinese People’s Congress in early 2023.
NOAA updates many of its weather outlooks daily or even more frequently and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. We provide a daily report which focuses on the shorter-term predictions but also has links to all the partial-month outlooks. Because WordPress does not provide the ability to have these maps automatically updated, our daily report shows some of the maps which we update each evening plus the links to the other important weather forecast Maps.
Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the next 28 days.
The week 3-4 outlook is only updated by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Service once a week on Friday. Thus, when we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the media and online.
We also include In Part II of the article the other information from the daily 48-hour forecast article. Importantly, this time of the year, it includes updates on tropical events. In both Parts I and II we also include some worldwide forecasts.
It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts If you read this article a few days or more after it is published. And there will be a totally updated version next Friday.
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
The September 2022 Monthly Treasury Statement issued by US Treasury shows the calendar year had a deficit of $1,375,389,000,000.
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of November plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months. I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.
It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. NOAA seems to be more confident about making predictions beyond six months. They even predict a good monsoon next summer which they never do this far in advance.
I will be writing a subsequent article on the challenges to the Agriculture Sector in certain parts of CONUS.
...Above normal warmth in the Central U.S. through this weekend... ...Critical Fire Weather conditions for Montana and Wyoming... ...Increasing precipitation chances and decreasing temperatures in the West this weekend...
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Manufacturing activity in the Philly Fed region continued to decline overall this month. The survey’s indicators for general activity and new orders remained negative, and the shipments index was little changed at a low but positive reading. The survey’s future general activity indexes suggest that the surveyed firms expect declines overall over the next six months. Another indication that the manufacturing sector of the U.S. is slowing.
In the week ending October 15, the advance figure for Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims seasonally adjusted 4 week moving average was 212,250, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 500 from 211,500 to 211,000. It is expected that the economic slowing as a result of the Fed fighting inflation will cause an increase in initial claims.
September 2022 existing-home sales slowed for the eighth consecutive month to a decline of 23.8% year-over-year. The median existing-home sales price is up 8.4% from one year ago. The inventory of unsold existing homes declined for the second straight month to the equivalent of 3.2 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace.
Imports into the USA generally indicate how the economy is doing. The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach handle 40% of the USA container traffic and is a good indicator of the economy. Imports were down 18% YoY in September, and exports were up 2% YoY. The tea leaves are saying that the economy is slowing.
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
...Record breaking cold will continue through Thursday morning in the Southeast... ...Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories are in effect for portions of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Ohio River Valley... ...Dry weather will lead to Elevated to Critical Fire Weather conditions for the Central and Northern Plains and the Lower Ohio River Valley through Thursday...
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
New privately owned housing units continue its downward trend for permits issued (down 3.1% year-over-year – blue line on the graph below) and housing starts (down 7.7% year-over-year – red line on the graph below) – but construction completions remained strong (up 15.7% year-over-year – green line on the graph below). The climbing mortgage rates is affecting this sector.
The October 2022 Federal Reserve’s Beige Book states:
National economic activity expanded modestly on net since the previous report; however, conditions varied across industries and Districts. Four Districts noted flat activity and two cited declines, with slowing or weak demand attributed to higher interest rates, inflation, and supply disruptions. Retail spending was relatively flat, reflecting lower discretionary spending, and auto dealers noted sustained sluggishness in sales stemming from limited inventories, high vehicle prices, and rising interest rates.
The Beige Book summarizes comments from contacts outside the Federal Reserve system. The Beige Book has not been timely in documenting recessions – but this month it appears they are saying the economy grew very little.
A summary of headlines we are reading today:
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
...Widespread record-breaking cold early Wednesday morning across the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians and Southeast... ...Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories in effect for the Southern Plains, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic... ...Scattered Flash Flooding possible for portions of Maine through tonight...
