EconCurrents

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 347 points or 1.15%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.68%,
• S&P 500 down 1.03%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $89 up $1.01,
• USD $112.12 up $0.91,
• Gold $1714 up $0.43
• Bitcoin $20,019 down 0.7% – Session Low 19,910,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.820% up 0.61%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Economic Releases:

Small business owners reporting labor quality as their top business operating problem remains elevated at 22% in September, according to NFIB’s monthly jobs report. Labor cost reported as the single most important problem to business owners was unchanged at 10%.

In September 2022, the Services PMI registered 56.7%, 0.2 percentage points lower than August’s reading of 56.9%. The Business Activity Index registered 59.1%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points compared to the reading of 60.9% the previous month. The business activity index correlates better to economic activity. An index value of 50% separates expansion and contraction.

In the week ending October 1, the 4-week moving average for initial unemployment insurance claims was 206,500, an increase of 250 from the previous week’s revised average. This data is saying the economy is relatively stable.

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U.S.-based employers announced 29,989 cuts in September, a 46.4% increase from the 20,485 cuts announced in August. It is 67.6% higher than the 17,898 cuts announced in the same month last year, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 42 points or 0.14%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.25%,
• S&P 500 down 0.20%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $88 up $1.45
• USD $111.06 up $0.86,
• Gold $1717 up $0.75
• Bitcoin $20,209 down 0.7% – Session Low 19,788,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.753% up 0.14%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Economic Releases:

The goods and services deficit was $67.4 billion in August 2022, down $3.1 billion from $70.5 billion in July. Yes, the trade deficit has been shrinking because imports have been shrinking whilst exports have remained relatively level (see graph below). Generally a decline in imports is a sign the economy is slowing.

Private sector employment increased by 208,000 jobs in September 2022 according to the September ADP National Employment Report. The biggest gains were in the trade / transportation / utilities sector. The ADP numbers were good this month showing employment remains strong – but historically ADP has not been a good indicator (blue line on graph below) for this Friday’s BLS non-farm private employment (red line on graph below).

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A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 825 points or 2.80%,
• Nasdaq closed up 3.34%,
• S&P 500 up 3.06%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $86 up $2.63
• USD $110.44 down $1.23,
• Gold $1725 up $31.60,
• Bitcoin $20,198 up 3.41% – Session Low 19,519,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.635% down 0.02%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Economic Releases:

Home Price Trends from CoreLogic Through August 2022 showed year-over-year home price appreciation slowed to 13.5% in August, the fourth consecutive month of lower annual growth. Price growth is projected to decelerate to 3.2% by August 2023, with more metro areas now likely to see decreases.

The number of job openings decreased to 10.1 million on the last business day of August Hires and total separations were little changed at 6.3 million and 6.0 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (4.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) were little changed. The bottom line is that job openings are still significantly high, but it appears business in general either is faced with a slowing marketplace or is figuring out how to get by without additional hiring.

New orders for manufactured goods in August 2022, down two consecutive months, were down but virtually unchanged. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.01, down from 6.05 in July. Inventories, down two consecutive months, decreased $1.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $800.2 billion. This followed a virtually unchanged July decrease. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.46, down from 1.47 in July. This data release is indicating manufacturing is pretty much stable.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 765 points or 2.66%,
• Nasdaq closed up 2.27%,
• S&P 500 up 2.59%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $83 up $3.57
• USD $111.85 down $0.25,
• Gold 1701 unchanged,
• Bitcoin $19,547 up 1.45% – Session Low 18,948,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.659% down 0.145%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, commodity prices as of market close.

Today’s Economic Releases:

Construction spending during August 2022 was down 0.7% month-over-month and up 8.5% year-over-year. During the first eight months of this year, construction spending increased 10.9%. Inflation adjusted construction spending declined 11.7% year-over-year as inflation in this sector exceeds 22% (see graph below)

The September 2022 Manufacturing PMI registered 50.9% which is lower than the 52.8% last month. Any number above 50% represents expansion but this is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered 43.5%. This suggests that this manufacturing sector is barely growing.

A summary of headlines we are reading today: