EconCurrents

Summary Of the Markets Today

• The Dow up 0.2%,
• Nasdaq up 10.2%,
• S&P 500 up 0.5%,
• WTI crude oil down $22.24 to $102.91,
• gold up $3 to $1,866,
• Bitcoin down 2.1% to $37,659,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury down 2 basis points to 2.98%

Today’s Economic Releases

According to Corelogic, home price growth jumped to over 20% in March, marking the 14^th straight month of double-digit price gains. However, annual gains are projected to slow to around 6% by next March, as rising mortgage rates and higher home prices hamper affordability for some home shoppers.

The BLS March 2022 Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) shows job openings and hires were little changed at 11.5 million and 6.7 million respectively.



Other Economic News

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today including:

• Shale Producers Face $42 Billion In Hedging Losses
• New Lockdowns In China Are Hindering Global Steel Supply
• Putin Publishes New Sanctions Against The West
• NASA chief says competition is making space exploration cheaper, in dramatic shift on contracts
• Russia beats final deadline to avoid debt default
• How high can the Fed hike interest rates before a recession hits? This chart suggests a low threshold.

Summary Of the Markets Today

• The Dow up 0.3%,
• Nasdaq up 1.6%,
• S&P 500 up 0.6%,
• WTI crude oil up $1.13 to $105.74,
• gold down $50 to $1,862,
• Bitcoin up 1.7% to $38,464,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury up 10 basis points to 2.99%

Today’s Economic Releases

The headlines for March 2022 construction spending say it slightly improved relative to last month. Unfortunately, there is significant inflation in the sector – and the real facts show year-over-year growth has contracted over 5% (red line on graph below).

Other Economic News

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today including:

• Can Brazil Help Fill The Supply Gap Left By The U.S. Ban On Russian Oil?
• OPEC Has Missed Its Oil Output Target Once Again
• EU Consider Exemptions As Hungary Threatens To Veto Russian Oil Ban
• Home affordability is nearly the worst on record as mortgage rates spike
• Biden kicks off $3 billion plan to boost battery production for electric vehicles
• About 150,000 people in Ukraine are using SpaceX’s Starlink internet service daily, government official says

Summary Of the Markets Today

• The Dow down 2.8%,
• Nasdaq down 4.2%,
• S&P 500 down 3.6%,
• WTI crude oil off $1 to $104.36,
• gold up $5.90 to $1,897,
• Bitcoin down 3.3% to $38,510,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury up 7 basis points to 2.93%

Today’s Economic Releases

Real personal income declined in March 2022 but real personal consumption grew. Inflation is chipping away the value of the dollar.

Other Economic News

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today including:

• Demand Destruction Is Delaying An Oil Supply Crisis
• An EU Embargo On Russian Oil Is Imminent
• Poland Threatens To Seize Russian Pipelines
• Diesel In Crisis Mode As Prices Break Records
• Chinese leaders stick to Covid controls as the virus spreads and forces a Beijing luxury mall to close temporarily
• Nasdaq Collapses To Worst Month Since Lehman As Market Starts Pricing 75bps Hike In June

Summary Of the Markets Today

• The Dow up 1.9%,
• Nasdaq up 3.1%,
• S&P 500 up 02.5%,
• WTI crude oil up over $3 to $105.17,
• gold up $8 to $1,897,
• Bitcoin up 1.6% to $39,771,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury unchanged at 2.83%

Today’s Economic Releases

A surprise contraction of First Quarter 2022 GDP (advance estimate). This was below expectations, and I suggest for the rest of the year GDP will remain subdued primarily due to inflation (real GDP is adjusted for inflation). Note that the headline GDP is calculated quarter-over-quarter annualized – if one calculates year-over-year, real GDP increased 3.6% from the same quarter one year ago. The BEA summary:

The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in private inventory investment, exports, federal government spending, and state and local government spending, while imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment increased.

Initial unemployment claims continues to trend down.

Other Economic News

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today including:

• Moldova Fears Russia Is Looking To Expand Its War Beyond Ukraine
• Is China Finally Distancing Itself From Russia?
• Iran Boosts Oil Exports As Its Key Buyer China Cuts Russian Purchases
• Elon Musk will be the most indebted CEO in America if the Twitter deal goes through
• Climate change will drive new transmission of 4,000 viruses between mammals by 2070
• “WTF Was That!” – Stocks Explode Higher As US Economy Heads Into Recession

Quick View of the markets today:

• The Dow up 0.2%,
• Nasdaq little changed,
• S&P 500 up 0.2%,
• WTI crude oil little changed at $102.15,
• gold down $18 to $1,886,
• Bitcoin up $1,017 to $39,144,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury unchanged at 2.84%

Pending home sales (March 2022 data) have declined for five months straight. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist stated:

The falling contract signings are implying that multiple offers will soon dissipate and be replaced by much calmer and normalized market conditions. As it stands, the sudden large gains in mortgage rates have reduced the pool of eligible homebuyers, and that has consequently lowered buying activity.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today including:

• Russian Hackers Are Targeting Europe’s Renewable Energy Infrastructure
• Italy May Consider Nationalizing Giant Lukoil Refinery
• EU Pledges Coordinated Response To Russian Gas Blackmail
• Peter Schiff: The Fed’s Ego Is The Only Thing Bigger Than This Bubble

Quick View of the markets today:

• The Dow declined 2.4%,
• Nasdaq declined 4.0%,
• S&P 500 declined 2.8%,
• WTI crude oil modestly increased $3.50 to $102.07,
• gold up $6 to $1,902,
• Bitcoin down 5.4% to $38,055,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury declined 8 basis point to 2.74%

CoreLogic Deputy Chief Economist Selma Hepp commented on the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for February released this morning:

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index pushed up to a 19.8% increase in February, the second consecutive month of accelerated growth after a winter lull, and another month of the strongest annual increase since the beginning of the data series. Price growth was robust across the country with all 20 metro areas experiencing stronger annual gains than in January. The largest increases in annual gains were in the West Coast markets: Los Angeles, Seattle, San Diego and San Francisco, and also in high tier price segments. While anticipation of mortgage rate increases pulled many buyers in ahead of the spring home buying season, strength in the higher priced segments of the market also suggests that buyers are seeing additional value in homes as a hedge against inflation.

Durable goods year-over-year growth remained fairly stable for March 2022.

New home sales declined this month – no surprise because of rising interest rates and higher prices.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today including:

• Germany Could Ban Russian Oil In Days
• Steel Demand Is Dwindling As China Grapples With New Lockdowns
• At least 58% of U.S. population has natural antibodies from previous Covid infection, CDC says
• Poland Confirms Russia To Halt All Gas Delivery Wednesday If Payment Not Settled In Rubles
• Europe Buys Abu Dhabi Crude To Replace Russian Barrels

Quick View of the markets today:

• The Dow gained 0.7%,
• Nasdaq up 1.3%,
• S&P 500 up 0.7%,
• WTI crude oil modestly declined $3 to $99.04,
• gold declined $35 to $1,900,
• Bitcoin rose 2.0% to $40,311,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury declined 7 basis point to 2.83%

The NFIB reported today that inflation is now small business’s single most important problem displacing labor quality. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three month moving average improved in March 2022 – and the index continues to expand above its historical trend (average) rate of growth

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today including:

• Russia Ramps Up Attacks On Ukraine Rail Lines To Thwart NATO Arms Shipments
• SpaceX’s Starlink to provide Wi-Fi on Hawaiian Airlines flights with free service for passengers
• Financial Markets Brace For Stagflation As Global Growth Optimism Sinks
• The Margin: Twitter’s board accepts Elon Musk’s offer — and users are either celebrating ‘free speech’ or saying ‘RIP Twitter’
• Europe Buys Abu Dhabi Crude To Replace Russian Barrels