The EIA Monthly Energy Review is long and does not change much from month to month since a lot of the information is historical. Here I present the graphics from just the first three chapters. It is enough to see that coal is being phased out, electricity is increasingly important and our incorporation of alternative sources of energy is slow. I may provide more information in a future article but this should be enough for people to decide if they want more detail on the rest of the report.
At the end of the article, I provided a link to the full Monthly Review. The EIA Monthly Energy Review is separate from its annual reporting on crude oil and natural gas reserves. My prior article on their estimates of reserves can be accessed HERE. I think that reserves are only updated once a year.
Some will need to click on “Read More” to access the rest of this article.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 12Z Sun Sep 01 2024 – 12Z Tue Sep 03 2024
…Areas of heavy rain with the potential for flash flooding across the south-central U.S. through Labor Day…
…Unsettled weather across much of the East continues today…
…Well above average, hot late-summer temperatures spread from the northwestern to north-central U.S. this holiday weekend…
Areas of locally heavy rainfall will continue over portions of the
south-central U.S. through the holiday weekend as a couple disturbances
help to drive shower and thunderstorm chances. First, a lingering coastal
low will bring more storms to the western Louisiana and upper Texas Gulf
Coasts today (Sunday) with a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level
1/4) and some isolated flash flooding. The low will drift southwestward
Monday (Labor Day), bringing storm chances to the central Texas Gulf
Coast. Meanwhile, additional storms are expected along and to the north of
a lingering frontal boundary draped from north Texas southwest towards the
Rio Grande, with another Marginal Risk area Sunday across southeastern New
Mexico and central/western Texas. An embedded weakness in broader
upper-level ridging aloft will help to encourage more widespread storms on
Monday with a higher threat of heavy rainfall and scattered flash
flooding, especially as soils become wetter given rainfall over the first
part of the weekend. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) has
been introduced for the Texas Hill Country where this threat is greatest,
with a continued more expansive Marginal Risk across southeastern New
Mexico and Texas. The widespread storms and clouds will keep temperatures
below average through the weekend in the region, with highs generally in
the 80s, and even some 70s on Monday for west Texas and eastern New
Mexico.
Showers and storms will also remain in the forecast for much of the
eastern U.S. ahead of a lingering frontal boundary. The heaviest rainfall
is expected today from the southern Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas west through
the southern Appalachians where some isolated flash flooding will be
possible. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible west through the
Tennessee Valley and into the Mid-South. More scattered, lighter showers
are expected across the Northeast. A second, stronger cold front will
bring drier air by Monday for most locations, though storms are expected
to continue ahead of the front along the Carolina coasts southwest through
Georgia towards the central Gulf Coast. Daily thunderstorms are also
forecast for the Florida Peninsula. Forecast highs today range from the
70s in New England and the Great Lakes/Upper Mid-West to the 80s in the
Mid-Atlantic and Ohio/Tennessee/Middle Mississippi Valleys and 90s deeper
into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley. The passing cold front
will bring the more mild temperatures in the 70s further into the northern
Mid-Atlantic and Ohio/Middle Mississippi Valleys Monday.
An upper-level ridge will continue to bring well above average, hot
late-Summer temperatures to the northwestern U.S. today as highs soar into
the 80s to near 90 for the Pacific Northwest and mid- to upper 90s for the
northern Great Basin. Heat Advisories remain in place for portions of the
northern Great Basin given the higher threat for heat-related impacts. The
ridge will shift eastward on Monday, bringing these hotter temperatures
into the northern High Plains with forecast highs in the mid- to upper
90s. Those with plans this weekend should limit their time outdoors or
seek more breaks from the sun in the shade, as well as remember to stay
well hydrated. An upper-level low over the Pacific approaching in its wake
will bring relief to the Pacific Northwest Monday as highs drop into the
70s, and conditions will return closer to average for the northern Great
Basin with highs in the mid-80s to lower 90s. However, strengthening
downsloping winds off the northern Sierra Nevada with the approach of the
upper low on Monday have prompted a Critical Risk of Fire Weather from the
Storm Prediction Center for northeastern California, southeastern Oregon,
and northwestern Nevada. Elsewhere in the West, highs will be closer to
average but still hot, with highs in the 90s for the Great Basin and
interior central California, and 100s for the Desert Southwest. Conditions
will be a bit cooler in the Four Corners region with highs in the 80s, and
a few thunderstorms will be possible today.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
It is now updated. I will be adding comments for a little while but the images are now updated.
At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is August of 2024. We are reporting on that tonight.
There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for September and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for September for comparison. It is easy to see the substantial changes in the weather outlook by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.
The article includes the Drought Outlook for September. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal (SON) Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the September Drought Outlook. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.
The best way to understand the updated outlook for September is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.
I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for September and the Mid-Month Outlook for September. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for September and the previously issued three-month outlook for SON 2024. So you get the full picture in three graphics.
Here is the updated Outlook for September 2024.
For Comparison Purposes, Here is the earlier Mid-Month Outlook for September.
It is important to remember that the maps show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020. So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology.
It is a substantial change from what was issued on August 15, 2024. Remember, it is the first set of maps that are the current outlook for September. One expects some changes 16 days later. However, the changes to the updated September Outlook are very significant. This then gives us some reason to question the (August 15, 2024) three-month SON temperature and precipitation Outlooks which are shown in the following graphic.
NOAA provided a combination of the Updated Outlook for September and the Three-Month Outlook.
The top pair of maps are again the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The bottom row shows the three-month outlooks which includes August the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory.
To the extent that one can rely on a forecast, we would conclude that October and November will be very different than September, especially for precipitation. You can subtract September from the three-month Outlook and divide by two to get a combined October-November Outlook.
However given the major change in the new September outlook from what was issued on August 15, 2024, we might not trust the Seasonal Outlook issued on August 15, 2024. Something to think about. But the major factor is the projected slower onset of La Nina. Thus this change is consistent with the pattern the NOAA has been predicting although they have been playing catch-up.
I am still not convinced that there will be a La Nina Winter.
Some readers may need to click “Read More” to read the rest of the article. Some will feel that they have enough information. But there is a lot more information in the rest of this article.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 12Z Sat Aug 31 2024 – 12Z Mon Sep 02 2024
…Widespread showers and storms expected from the Southern Plains to East Coast to start the holiday weekend…
…Flash flooding and severe weather possible for portions of the northern/central Appalachians Saturday…
…Multiple days of heavy rain may cause flash flooding for portions of the Louisiana and Texas Gulf Coasts…
…Well above average, hot late-Summer temperatures forecast in the northwestern U.S. this weekend…
An upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will progress
eastward this morning (Saturday), extending from the Northeast southwest
through the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Middle Mississippi Valley/Mid-South,
and into the Southern Plains. Another round of showers and thunderstorms
is expected along and ahead of the length of the front, with moist air and
instability likely leading to some more intense thunderstorms, heavy
downpours, and the potential for isolated flash flooding. A locally higher
threat is expected across portions of the northern/central Appalachians
given the potential for some training/repeated rounds of storms across
more sensitive mountain terrain. The region is under a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) for the threat of a few more scattered
instances of flash flooding. In addition, stronger winds aloft with the
passing upper trough will bring increased shear for some more organized
storms. The Storm Prediction Center has also included a Slight Risk of
severe weather (level 2/5), mainly for the threat of some damaging winds.
The fronts forward progression will slow through Saturday, especially with
southwestward extent, leading to additional rounds of storms on Sunday
with moderate to locally heavy rainfall from the southern
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas west through the Tennessee Valley, Mid-South, and
into the Southern Plains. Some isolated flash flooding will remain
possible, especially for the southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic and
Carolinas as well as the southern High Plains. A secondary cold front
sweeping in from the north will bring an end to precipitation chances for
most areas outside of the Southeast/Southern Plains later Sunday night.
Further south, another area of storms is expected to continue today in
vicinity of a coastal low near the western Louisiana and upper Texas Gulf
Coasts. Another Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in place as slow
moving and very heavy rainfall-producing storms given abundant Gulf
moisture may lead to some additional scattered instances of flash
flooding, especially given wetter antecedent conditions from rainfall the
past few days. At least an isolated threat for flash flooding will exist
into Sunday, though rainfall amounts may trend downward. Daily
thunderstorms are also forecast for the Florida Peninsula, with some
isolated instances of urban flooding possible for South Florida today.
Temperature-wise, relief from the more intense heat this past week will
finally come to the Middle Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys as
increasing storm chances and the approaching front keep temperatures down
a bit, with highs generally in the 80s and low 90s. Low 90s will also be
common across the Southeast with mid-80s to low 90s for the Appalachians
and southern Mid-Atlantic. Highs will remain cooler and mainly in the 70s
to the north of a warm front for the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England
Saturday, with a rebound into the low 80s expected for many locations
Sunday as the warm front lifts north. The Northern/Central Plains and
Midwest will see highs in the 80s today before a cold front brings cooler
temperatures in the 70s Sunday. Conditions will remain much below average
for late Summer over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains,
with highs generally in the mid-80s outside of south Texas. Some 70s will
be possible for west Texas.
Well above average, hot late-Summer temperatures will continue into the
weekend for the northwestern U.S. as a broad upper-level ridge remains in
place over the West. Highs are forecast into the 90s to near 100 across
the interior Pacific Northwest, northern Great Basin, and northern
Rockies, and have prompted some Heat Advisories for the northern Great
Basin/Rockies given the heightened risk of heat-related illness. Those
with outdoor plans for the holiday weekend should remember to take more
frequent breaks from the heat in the shade and stay hydrated. Highs
elsewhere across the West will not be quite as above average, but still
hot, with 90s for the Great Basin and interior California and 100s in the
Desert Southwest. Portions of the Southwest/Four Corners Region will be a
bit cooler with shower and thunderstorm chances expected in vicinity of a
lingering frontal boundary, with highs in the upper 70s and 80s.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
The Dow closed up 228 points or 0.55%, (Closed at 41,563, New Historic high 41.585)
Nasdaq closed up 1.13%,
S&P 500 closed up 1.01%,
Gold $2,535 down $25.30,
WTI crude oil settled at $74 down $2.40,
10-year U.S. Treasury 3.909 up 0.042 points,
USD index $101.67 up $0.33,
Bitcoin $58,806 down $550 or 0.93%,
Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -2 to 583 Canada +1 to 220
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Today’s Highlights
US stocks ended August on a positive note, with all three major indexes posting gains for the month despite earlier volatility. Here are the key points:
Inflation Data and Rate Cut Expectations
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, showed prices increased in line with expectations in July.
Core inflation rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.6% annually, matching June’s level.
This data kept hopes alive for a 0.25% interest rate cut in September, as hinted by Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week.
Market Sentiment
Stocks took an upbeat tone as recession fears receded and expectations grew for the Fed to begin easing monetary policy.
Investors have moved past the focus on Nvidia’s earnings that dominated earlier in the week.
Looking Ahead
September could bring more volatility, as it has historically been a weak month for stocks.
The market will be closely watching for further signs of the Fed’s policy pivot and its impact on the economy.
Despite a bumpy August, the stock market ended the month on a high note, with inflation data supporting expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. However, investors should be prepared for potential volatility in the coming month.
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
Real disposable personal income (DPI), inflation adjusted personal income less personal current taxes, increased 1.1% year-over-year – up from last month’s 1.0%. Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.7% year-over-year – down from last month’s 2.8%. The PCE price index (aka “inflation”) was unchanged at 2.5%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also was unchanged at 2.6%. The bottom line is that neither consumption or inflation is changing. As I continue to state, there is ZERO evidence that the underlying inflationary forces are moderating today. Every day, consumers are getting poorer as their income is only up 1.1% year-over-year whilst their spending is up 2.8%. Wall Street is pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut rates for the benefit of traders while the real burden of inflation is being born by the working who are made poorer every day.
The Chicago Business Barometer moved up 0.8 points in August 2024 to 46.1. Any value below 50 shows contraction. The reason this minor indicator is important is that pundits believe it is indicative of the ISM manufacturing survey which will be released next week. The bottom line here is that manufacturing is not doing well.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
EPA Extends Emergency Waiver for Midwest Gasoline Supply
U.S. Oil, Gas Drilling Activity. Oil Production Slip
Texas to Consider $5.4 Billion Loans for New Natural Gas Plants
Libya Is Back on the Brink of Civil War
Maduro Clings to Power in Venezuela
Stocks close higher Friday, S&P 500 posts fourth straight winning month: Live updates
The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator increased 0.2% in July, as expected
FDA authorizes Novavax’s updated Covid vaccine, paving way for fall rollout
Ether heads for over 20% loss in August, bitcoin faces fourth weekly loss in five: CNBC Crypto World
Fewer people are purchasing homes, despite high demand—buyers are in ‘wait and see’ mode
The Fed’s Fiat Money Is The Real Cause Of Price Inflation
Extreme Gaslighting: Here Are 7 Signs That The Mainstream Media Is Flat Out Lying To Us About The Economy
Social Security’s return on investment is a joke compared with state and local pension funds. Where is our money going?
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 12Z Fri Aug 30 2024 – 12Z Sun Sep 01 2024
…Widespread shower and thunderstorm chances from the Plains to East Coast to start the holiday weekend, producing heavy rain and severe weather...
…Heavy rain and scattered flash flooding possible along the Louisiana and upper Texas Gulf Coasts…
…Record heat continues across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the Southern Appalachians today with relief on tap for the weekend…
…Much above average temperatures build across the Pacific Northwest, northern Great Basin and into the northern Rockies…
A broad area of showers and thunderstorms is expected over central and
eastern portions of the country heading into the first half of the holiday
weekend ahead of an approaching cold front. Today (Friday), storm chances
will stretch from the Lower Great Lakes southwest through the Middle
Mississippi Valley and into the Southern Plains/Rockies. Plentiful
moisture and instability ahead of the front will lead to some more robust
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall, with some isolated flash
flooding possible. In addition, an accompanying upper-level trough
overhead will bring some higher winds over the Great Lakes, leading to
stronger shear and the potential for some severe weather. There is a
targeted Slight Risk (level 2/5) from the Storm Prediction Center over
portions of eastern Michigan mainly for the risk of damaging winds. On
Saturday, the front will progress further south and eastward into the Ohio
Valley and Northeast while slowing in progress and becoming nearly
stationary with southwestward extent into the Southern Plains. A broader
area of severe weather is expected over portions of the northern/central
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic as the upper-level trough digs southward
over the region. Damaging winds will once again be the primary threat. In
addition, isolated flash flooding will remain possible, with the potential
that a higher threat may materialize given the slowing frontal
progression.
Further south, another more concentrated area of heavier rainfall is
expected to continue along portions of the western Louisiana and upper
Texas Gulf Coasts as an area of low pressure lingers in the vicinity.
Higher rain rates and repeated rounds of storms may lead to locally higher
rain totals of 2-4″+ over Friday and Saturday. A Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (level 2/4) has been included for both days for the potential of
some scattered flash flooding. Daily thunderstorms are also forecast over
the central/southern Florida Peninsula.
One more day of excessive heat is forecast over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys
and southern Appalachians today as temperatures soar once again into the
mid- to upper 90s. High humidity may bring head indices into the low 100s.
A few record-tying/breaking highs will also be possible. The approaching
cold front and increasing storm chances/cloud cover will finally bring
some relief on Saturday as highs drop into the 80s across the Middle
Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys, with upper 80s to low 90s for the
Upper Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Elsewhere, highs will be particularly
mild north of the frontal boundary across the northern Mid-Atlantic and
New England, with 70s and even some upper 60s expected today. Temperatures
will warm up a few degrees as the boundary lifts northward as a warm front
on Saturday. Conditions will also be well below average over portions of
the Southern Plains to the northwest of the frontal boundary, with low to
mid-80s forecast. Areas ahead of the front from Texas into the Southeast
and the southern Mid-Atlantic will generally be in the upper 80s to low
90s.
In the wake of the departing trough to the east, an upper-level ridge over
the Pacific Coast will shift inland, helping to focus hot, much above
average temperatures over the northern tier of the West. Forecast highs on
Friday for the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest will range
between the low to mid-90s for most locations. Then, on Saturday, the heat
will intensify as well as expand into the northern Rockies, with many
highs in the mid- to upper 90s, 10-20 degrees above average. Heat
Advisories have been issued for much of the northern Great Basin given the
heightened risk of heat-related illnesses, and extra care should be taken
to seek shaded areas and remain hydrated this holiday weekend. Elsewhere
in the West, temperatures will generally be near or just above average,
with 60s and 70s along the coast, 80s to low 90s for the Great Basin,
mid-90s for the central California Valleys, and 100s in the Desert
Southwest. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible along a
lingering frontal boundary through the central/southern Rockies and into
the Southwest.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 3% annualized, higher than the previous 2.8% estimate.
Weekly jobless claims came in at 231,000, lower than expected.
Other Earnings
Salesforce shares rose after beating earnings expectations.
Best Buy shares jumped up to 17% on better-than-expected results.
Dollar General shares plunged 30% after cutting its full-year outlook.
The mixed market performance reflects investors assessing Nvidia’s earnings alongside stronger-than-expected economic data, as they also consider the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate decisions.
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
The number of CEO changes at U.S. companies fell 36% to 149 in July from 234 in June. It is down 24% from 197 CEO exits recorded in the same month last year. Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. stated:
The labor market is softening, and companies are finding ways to lower costs. Companies have made leadership changes in response to AI, the political landscape, and international events causing substantial impacts on business conditions.
The second estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2024. Using a year-over-year metric, there was no change in growth between the advance and second estimates in 2Q2024. In the first quarter, real GDP increased at 2.9% year-over-year. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased . The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.6% year-over-year in the second quarter – up from the 2.4% year-over-year in 1Q2024.
Pending home sales (a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings) slipped to 70.2 in July, the lowest reading since the index began tracking in 2001. Year over year, pending transactions were down 8.5%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. The existing home market remains depressed – but note that it is not a component of GDP. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun added:
A sales recovery did not occur in midsummer. The positive impact of job growth and higher inventory could not overcome affordability challenges and some degree of wait-and-see related to the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
In the week ending August 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 231,500, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 236,000 to 236,250. There is little evidence of a potential recession in this data.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
Beijing and Washington Clash Over Russia Sanctions
UK Plans New Environmental Guidance for North Sea Oil and Gas Firms
How China is Circumventing Sanctions to Buy Iranian Oil
CNOOC Expects Oil Prices to Remain Rangebound Between $75 and $85
Traders Concerned About Near-Term Risks for European Gas Supply
Dow rises 200 points for fresh record close, Nasdaq falls as Nvidia shares tumble: Live updates
The Fed’s preferred inflation indicator is out Friday. Here’s what to expect
Disillusioned crypto investors are struggling behind bitcoin’s ETF success
Nvidia shares fall despite earnings beating estimates
Bitcoin drifts back to $60,000, trimming the week’s losses: CNBC Crypto World
Apple, Nvidia Eye Investments In OpenAI As ChatGPT Hits $100 Billion Valuation
Treasury yields rise after latest batch of U.S. economic data
With earnings season behind us, the stock market is aiming at new all-time highs
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 12Z Thu Aug 29 2024 – 12Z Sat Aug 31 2024
…Above average heat expected to linger across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Friday before a cooling trend arrives by the weekend…
…Strong to severe thunderstorms expected across the upper Midwest and Mid-Atlantic today, then across the Great Lakes on Friday…
…Some tropical heavy rain and thunderstorms could affect the western Gulf Coast region through the next couple of days…
A vigorous low pressure system currently centered near the U.S.-Canadian
border of the High Plains will move steadily across southern Canada
through the next couple of days. Strong to severe thunderstorms forming
ahead of a potent cold front trailing south from the low pressure center
will likely impact North Dakota early this morning, before quickly
advancing into Minnesota and down across the central Plains into this
evening. These thunderstorms could develop into supercells that may
contain damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. Meanwhile,
thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic could also be strong to severe where
some gusty winds and heavy rain may lead to isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding by this evening and into the overnight. The
front that helps trigger these thunderstorms will gradually edge farther
southward into the Mid-Atlantic on Friday, bringing relief from the heat
with high temperatures only reaching into the 70s for much of the
Northeast. The cool air will not have a chance to reach into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys though as southerly flow increases ahead of the deep low
pressure system in southern Canada. A couple more days of heat with
afternoon high temperatures well up into the 90s are expected in these
areas. Above average overnight low temperatures will provide little
relief, lows will likely stay in the 70s for much of the region. A
cooling trend will set in by the weekend behind the cold front. Scattered
thunderstorms with embedded strong to severe storms will then extend
southwestward across the Midwest into the central Plains on Friday as the
trailing end of the front begins to slow down and become nearly stationary
into the southern Plains by Saturday.
Separate from the frontal system across the northern tier of the country,
tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico could lead to heavy rain across
portions of the western Gulf Coast region as an upper-level low lingers
over Texas. A small scale low pressure center could form and interact
with a subtle coastal front to enhance rainfall rates, leading to the
potential for flooding issues over portions of the the western Gulf Coast
through the next couple of days.
Across the rest of the country, a general cooldown is expected behind the
cold front across the north-central U.S. and high temperatures should be
generally in the middle 80s. Much of the Southeast should be warm and
humid with commonplace high temperatures in the middle 90s. A warming
trend is expected for the western U.S. following the recent cool spell as
the strong low departs into southern Canada.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Today’s Highlights:
Tech stocks led the market lower on Wednesday as investors awaited Nvidia’s highly anticipated earnings report after the closing bell. Here are the key points:
The major stock indexes all declined.
Nvidia shares fell about 2% ahead of its Q2 earnings release at 5 pm eastern (the same time this newsletter is published). The chipmaker’s results are seen as a crucial test of AI spending and tech sector strength.
Traders are expecting a potential 10% swing in Nvidia’s stock price following the report. Wall Street is forecasting massive year-over-year growth in Nvidia’s earnings and revenue.
The Information Technology sector was the worst performer in the S&P 500, declining 1.4%.
Other notable movers included SuperMicro Computer, which fell 19% on a delayed annual report filing, and retailers Abercrombie & Fitch and Foot Locker, which both dropped double digits.
Nvidia’s earnings are being closely watched for insights on AI demand and chip production, with potential to move the broader market given the company’s $3.2 trillion valuation and 160% stock gain this year.
EconCurrent‘s Economic Index marginally improved and is slightly in positive territory. The economy is stratified with some sectors going gangbusters, other sectors barely above recessionary levels, whilst other sectors are in recession territory. Inflation continues its snail’s pace moderation. Currently, we do not forecast a recession in the near term. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.
