EconCurrents

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Nov 05 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 05 2024 – 12Z Thu Nov 07 2024

…Heavy rain and severe weather threats shifting east toward the
Arklatex, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and into the Midwest/Ohio Valley today…

…Mountain snow and wind will spread south from the northern Rockies
today, reaching into much of the central Rockies and Four Corners on
Wednesday into Thursday morning…

…Watching South Florida and especially the Florida Keys for impacts
associated with Tropical Storm Rafael forecast to become a hurricane as it
enters the southern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday…

…Above average temperatures approaching record levels will spread across
the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and East Coast…

The weather system that has sustained the heavy rain and severe weather
across the south-central U.S. for the past couple of days is beginning to
advance farther east. This is in response to a low pressure system
consolidating along the trailing front as supported by the final pieces of
energy of the deep upper trough reaching into the southern Plains. The
threats of heavy rain and severe weather today are shifting farther east
toward the Mississippi Valley this morning ahead of the front. As the low
pressure center tracks farther north across the upper Midwest today and
then into the Great Lakes by tonight, the heavy rain threat across the
Mississippi Valley will gradually lessen. The front is forecast to become
nearly stationary across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Wednesday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms remaining in the vicinity into
Thursday morning.

Focus will then shift into the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Rafael is
forecast to track across western Cuba on Wednesday as a hurricane. The
Florida Keys will likely be closest to the path of Rafael with increasing
winds amid passing squally downpours associated with rainbands from Rafael
by later on Wednesday into Thursday morning. Please refer to the National
Hurricane Hurricane for the latest advisories on Rafael. Some moderate to
heavy rainfall well ahead of Rafael could move into the Southeast by
Wednesday night and continue into Thursday morning.

Weather out West is getting active again as another strong upper level
trough quickly digs across. A cold front and attendant low pressure system
have already traversed the Pacific Northwest. In addition to winter
weather across the mountains that has prompted winter weather advisories
and storm warnings, strong winds accompanying the low have also prompted
high wind warnings for the interior Pacific Northwest and portions of
Montana and Wyoming. The front will dip farther south into the southern
Rockies by Wednesday and then across the central and southern Plains by
Thursday morning. A round of new snow is expected to blanket much of the
Four Corners region behind the strong front. Temperatures will plunge as
an arctic air mass invades the region. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s
across the valleys and lows may approach the single digits in the cool
spots. Make sure to bundle up.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Nov 04 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 04 2024 – 12Z Wed Nov 06 2024

…More heavy rain and severe weather focusing across eastern Oklahoma to
the Midwest today will weaken and gradually shift east toward the
Mid-Mississippi Valley on Tuesday…

…Next round of mountain snow and wind will quickly overspread into the
Pacific Northwest today, across the northern Rockies on Tuesday, and then
into the central Rockies by Tuesday night…

…Watching South Florida and especially the Florida Keys for impacts
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen which is forecast to
reach hurricane strength by Wednesday morning…

…Above average temperatures approaching record levels will build across
the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and East Coast…

The ongoing active weather system over the south-central U.S. will bring
another day of heavy rain and severe weather across the south-central
U.S., with the heaviest rainfall expected to impact eastern Oklahoma,
northwestern Arkansas, much of Missouri and into Illinois. In addition,
the Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight an Enhanced Risk (level
3/5) of severe thunderstorms centered around eastern Oklahoma and into
adjacent areas where damaging winds, large hail, as well as a few
tornadoes are mostly likely. More energy ejecting from the upper-level
trough currently spreading mountain snow across the Intermountain West
will consolidate a low pressure system over the south-central Plains
today. This system is forecast to push a cold front farther eastward by
tonight, ending the heavy rain threat across Oklahoma but then shifting
the heavy rain and severe weather threats into the Arklatex region,
Mid-Mississippi Valley and across Midwest on Tuesday. As the low pressure
center tracks quickly northeastward across the Great Lakes Tuesday night,
the trailing cold front will weaken with time, leading to a lessening
threat of heavy rain and severe weather farther east across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Nevertheless, moderate to locally heavy
rain with embedded thunderstorms are expected to reach into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

With another piece of energy associated the upper trough beginning to exit
the Southwest into the Plains today, mountain snow over central Colorado
will slowly taper off while mountain snow over New Mexico will linger into
this evening. A rather strong low pressure system from the Pacific Ocean
will quickly spread the next round of coastal rain into the Pacific
Northwest today followed by a good dose of mountain snow farther inland
along with windy conditions. The mountain snow will then reach into the
northern Rockies Monday night into Tuesday morning as the low pressure
system redevelops over the northern High Plains. The greatest chances
(>80%) for over 8 inches of snowfall in a 24-hour period is forecast over
the northern Cascades on Monday and northern Rockies on Tuesday. Be sure
to prepare for winter driving conditions if traveling throughout these
elevated mountain ranges and stay tuned to the latest local weather
forecast. By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the snow is forecast
to blanket the central Rockies into the central High Plains behind a polar
front.

Warmer and mostly dry conditions will be felt east of the Mississippi
River through early next week, besides rain chances throughout parts of
the Midwest and Great Lakes. A large high pressure system centered over
the Great Lakes is forecast to slide eastward and off the New England
coastline, ushering in warm southerly flow on the western periphery. This
will support widespread above average high temperatures into the upper 60s
and 70s from the central/southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic early this
week, with 80s along the Gulf Coast States. When compared to early
November climatology, the Midwest and upper Ohio Valley is expected to
experience temperatures well above average. The anomalous warmth will
eventually spread to the East Coast by Election Day as showers and
thunderstorms ahead of the cold front continue throughout the Midwest and
Mississippi Valley.

In the mean time, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has begun issuing
advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (PTC 18) in the
southwestern Caribbean. This system has the potential to bring increasing
winds with the arrival of outer rainbands especially for the Florida Keys
by Wednesday morning as the cyclone is forecast to reach hurricane
strength by then. Please refer to the NHC for the latest advisory on PTC
18.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Nov 03 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 03 2024 – 12Z Tue Nov 05 2024

…Another day of heavy rain and severe weather expected across the
central U.S. before shifting east into the Arklatex, Mid-Mississippi
Valley and Midwest by Monday night…

…Mountain snow moving across the Intermountain West and Rockies today
will begin to taper off on Monday as the next round of mountain snow and
wind quickly overspreads the Pacific Northwest on Monday…

…Above average temperatures approaching record levels will shift east
from the Plains today towards the Mississippi Valley by Monday with no
rain in sight along the East Coast…

The ongoing active weather system over the south-central U.S. will
continue to trigger additional rounds of heavy rain and severe weather for
the remainder of today, with the heaviest rainfall expected to impact
central to eastern Oklahoma into portions of northwestern Arkansas and
southern Missouri. More energy ejecting from the upper-level trough
currently spreading mountain snow across the Intermountain West will
eventually consolidate a low pressure system over the central High Plains
by tonight. This low pressure system will track northeastward across the
central Plains followed by another low pressure system to develop over the
south-central Plains on Monday. This second system is forecast to
push a cold front farther eastward Monday night, ending the heavy rain
threat across Oklahoma but shifting the heavy rain and severe weather
threats into the Arklatex region, Mid-Mississippi Valley and Midwest by
Monday night.

The upper trough will usher colder than normal temperatures through much
of the western U.S. for the next couple of days with mountain snow passing
through the Intermountain region today, followed by the central and
southern Rockies on Monday. Meanwhile, a rather strong low pressure
system from the Pacific Ocean will quickly spread the next round of
coastal rain into the Pacific Northwest on Monday followed by a good dose
of mountain snow farther inland along with quite a bit of wind. The
mountain snow will reach into the northern Rockies Monday night into
Tuesday morning as the low pressure system redevelops over the northern
High Plains. The greatest chances (>80%) for over 8 inches of snowfall in
a 24-hour period is forecast over the northern Cascades on Monday. Be
sure to prepare for winter driving conditions if traveling throughout
these elevated mountain ranges and stay tuned to the latest local weather
forecast.

Warmer and mostly dry conditions will be felt east of the Mississippi
River through early next week, besides rain chances entering parts of the
Midwest and Great Lakes. A large high pressure system centered over the
Great Lakes is forecast to slide eastward and off the New England
coastline by Monday, ushering in warm southerly flow on the western
periphery. This will support widespread above average high temperatures
into the upper 60s and 70s from the central/southern Plains to the
Mid-Atlantic by Monday, with 80s along the Gulf Coast States. When
compared to early November climatology, the Midwest is expected to
experience temperatures well above average on Monday. The anomalous
warmth will then spread across the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes by
Monday night into early Tuesday as showers and thunderstorms ahead of the
cold front reach into the Midwest.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Nov 02 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 02 2024 – 12Z Mon Nov 04 2024

…Frequent rounds of heavy rain and severe weather expected across the
central and southern Plains throughout this weekend and into Monday…

…Mountain snow will spread from the Pacific Northwest into much of the
Intermountain West over the next couple of days…

…Much above average temperatures expected across large portions of the
central to eastern U.S. with no rain in sight along the East Coast…

An upper-level trough digging into the western U.S. will be pushing
against a ridge of high pressure building across the eastern U.S. This
will result an amplifying weather pattern across the mainland U.S. through
this weekend, with the most vigorous battle zone occurring over the
south-central U.S. As mountain snow being ushered into the western U.S.
with the arrival of the upper trough, a large high pressure system will
quickly build across the northeastern quadrant of the country today. This
high pressure system will settle and expand across the eastern two-thirds
of the country this weekend, bringing cooler air into the Northeast. In
contrast, widespread above average temperatures are expected from the
Plains eastward with no rain in sight along the East Coast into the first
few days of November.

Attention will then focus across the mid-section of the country where a
rather significant heavy rain and severe weather event is currently
developing. As moist air from the Gulf of Mexico returns and streams
northward into the southern Plains behind the high pressure system, the
deepening upper-level trough moving into the western U.S. will spread more
mountain snow across the Intermountain West this weekend. Southwesterly
flow ahead of the trough will then interact with the returning Gulf
moisture and lift the moisture over a warm front across the central and
southern Plains. Heavy rain associated with organized thunderstorms are
currently erupting over the southern High Plains. The thunderstorms and
heavy rain will then expand northeastward into the central Plains through
the weekend. A few inches of heavy rain with locally higher amounts is
forecast across the south-central U.S., with the heaviest rainfall
expected across central Oklahoma. Similar to many areas of the Lower 48,
this region is experiencing moderate to extreme drought conditions. While
this heavy rain event will help alleviate the drought, the expected high
rainfall rates will bring an increasing threat of flash flooding. WPC
currently has a moderate risk of flash flooding in place from central
Oklahoma to southeastern Kansas and into southwestern Missouri from Sunday
into early Monday. Please stay abreast of the latest forecast updates on
this upcoming heavy rain/severe weather event across the central to
southern Plains. This system will also spread some light to moderate rain
farther north across the northern Plains, and moderate to locally heavy
rain toward the upper Midwest on Sunday into early Monday.