22 OCT 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Three Major Indexes Opened Sharply Lower, Then Erased Opening Losses Where The Nasdaq Set A New Historic High And The Indexes Closed Fractionally Mixed

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 7 points or 0.02%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 33 points or 0.18%, (Closed at 18,573, New Historic high 18,621)
  • S&P 500 closed down 3 points or 0.05%,
  • Gold $2,762 up $22.90 or 0.84%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $72 up $1.68 or 2.38%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.208 up 0.026 points or 0.211%,
  • USD index $104.11 up $0.09 or 0.09%,
  • Bitcoin $67,486 down $1,755 or 0.26%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

Investors were processing a recent bond market sell-off and incoming earnings reports. Doubts are growing about the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut rates aggressively or maintain current levels in November. The 10-year Treasury yield stabilized around 4.2% after surpassing this level on Monday for the first time since July. General Motors raised its guidance for the third time this year, with shares closing up over 10%. GE Aerospace and Verizon saw share price declines following mixed Q3 reports. Anticipation is building for Tesla’s earnings report, expected on Wednesday. Gold prices reached another record high as investors sought safety amid geopolitical tensions and the upcoming U.S. presidential election.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Richmond Fed manufacturing activity remained slow in October 2024. The composite manufacturing index increased from −21 in September to −14 in October. Of its three component indexes, shipments increased from −18 to −8, new orders rose from −23 to −17, and employment increased from −22 to −17. Being a negative number shows manufacturing remains in a recession.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. Tightens Grip on Russia’s LNG Exports
  • Oilfield Services Firms Sound the Alarm: Shale Spending Slows
  • The Dark Side of AI-Powered Synthetic Biology
  • Top U.S. LNG Exports: China’s Gas Demand Is Booming
  • EU Imports of China’s EVs Surge Ahead of Tariffs
  • U.S. Monitors Shadow Fleet Oil Transfers in Southeast Asia
  • Paul Tudor Jones says market reckoning on spending is coming after election: ‘We are going to be broke’
  • Philip Morris is a growth stock again as shares hit all-time high on Zyn demand boom
  • Dow posts back-to-back loss Tuesday as Wall Street’s rally pauses: Live updates
  • Peloton partners with Costco to sell Bike+ as it looks to reach young, wealthy customers
  • IRS announces bigger estate and gift tax exemption for 2025
  • Polymarket Is Singlehandedly Moving The Entire US Bond Market
  • 10-year Treasury yield ends at roughly 3-month high as U.S. deficit concerns linger

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 22, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Oct 21 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 21 2024 – 12Z Wed Oct 23 2024

…Lingering scattered thunderstorm activity for the Central/Southern
Plains today…

…Cool and rainy across the Northwest today…

…Well above average temperatures in the northern tier spreads south…

A previously quasi-stationary front draped along the Central/Southern High
Plains will kick out into the Great Plains today beneath a weakening
upper-level low. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur over
portions of eastern Nebraska and Kansas as a result with a Marginal Risk
of Severe Thunderstorms present. A somewhat slow moving upper trough over
the eastern Pacific will produce cool temperatures and light rain showers
for much of the Northwest today.

An upper ridge and approaching northern stream trough will generate well
above average temperatures across much of the northern tier states today.
Temperatures in the 70s and 80s will represent 20-30 degree positive
anomalies for portions of the Upper Midwest. High temperature records
along the Northeast Coast may be tied or broken today.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

21Oct2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Close Mixed With Nvidia and Apple At All Time Highs

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 344 points or 0.08%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 50 points or 0.27%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 10 points or 0.18%,
  • Gold $2,735 up $4.80 or 0.17%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $70 up $1.16 or 1.68%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.196% up 0.119 points or 0.953%,
  • USD index $103.97 up $0.48 or 0.46%,
  • Bitcoin $67,625 down $1,345 or 1.95%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The stock market closed mixed, with major indices showing varied results: The S&P 500 retreated from its recent all-time closing high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell also. Nvidia gained over 4%, closing at a fresh all-time high. Apple also reached a new closing record. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 10 basis points to 4.18%, its highest level since July. Investors are preparing for a busy week of earnings reports, with over 100 S&P 500 companies scheduled to release their results. So far, 80% of third-quarter updates from these companies have exceeded expectations. Key companies to watch this week include Tesla, General Motors, Coca-Cola, American Airlines, and UPS. Boeing faces a crucial day on Wednesday with both earnings release and a union vote on a tentative deal to end a five-week strike. Oil prices rose nearly 2%, with global benchmark Brent futures closing above $74 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude settling above $70.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US declined by 0.5% in September 2024, following a 0.3% decline in August. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board explained:

Weakness in factory new orders continued to be a major drag on the US LEI in September as the global manufacturing slump persists. Additionally, the yield curve remained inverted, building permits declined, and consumers’ outlook for future business conditions was tepid. Gains among other LEI components were not significant enough to offset weakness among the four gauges mentioned above. Overall, the LEI continued to signal uncertainty for economic activity ahead and is consistent with The Conference Board expectation for moderate growth at the close of 2024 and into early 2025.

The San Pedro Bay port complex, which includes both the Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach, handled approximately 29% of all containerized international waterborne trade in the United States in 2023. Their import data provides a window into imports into the US. In September 2024, imports were up 14% year-over-year while exports were down 9%. This was the largest September imports on record.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Oil Prices Gain 2% After China Boosts Stimulus Measures
  • Gold Supply and Demand Imbalance Fuels Price Surge
  • Russia’s Dark Fleet of Oil Tankers is Fueling India’s Refining Boom
  • EU Hits 95% Full Natural Gas Storage Ahead of Winter
  • U.S. Electricity Demand Jump Catches Power Utilities Unaware
  • Iraq Stuck Between Israel and Iran As Tensions Rise
  • Trump tax plans could exempt 93 million Americans from income taxes
  • Qualcomm revamps mobile phone chips for AI, signs Samsung and others
  • Seven Israelis Accused Of Giving Info To Iran On Targeted IDF Bases
  • California Continues To See Negative Net Domestic Migration
  • WNBA star Angel Reese says of her $73,439 salary: ‘Does that even pay my car note?’

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 21, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Oct 21 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 21 2024 – 12Z Wed Oct 23 2024

…Lingering scattered thunderstorm activity for the Central/Southern
Plains today…

…Cool and rainy across the Northwest today…

…Well above average temperatures in the northern tier spreads south…

A previously quasi-stationary front draped along the Central/Southern High
Plains will kick out into the Great Plains today beneath a weakening
upper-level low. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur over
portions of eastern Nebraska and Kansas as a result with a Marginal Risk
of Severe Thunderstorms present. A somewhat slow moving upper trough over
the eastern Pacific will produce cool temperatures and light rain showers
for much of the Northwest today.

An upper ridge and approaching northern stream trough will generate well
above average temperatures across much of the northern tier states today.
Temperatures in the 70s and 80s will represent 20-30 degree positive
anomalies for portions of the Upper Midwest. High temperature records
along the Northeast Coast may be tied or broken today.

cone graphic

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 20, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Oct 20 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 20 2024 – 12Z Tue Oct 22 2024

…Heavy Rain and light to moderate Snow across portions of the Central
Rockies, and Southern High Plains today before diminishing tonight…

…Rainfall for the Pacific Northwest through Monday…

…Expansive area of above average temperatures settle over the northern
tier…

An anomalous closed upper-level low pressure system will continue to
produce heavy rainfall and scattered thunderstorms across portions of the
Southern High Plains through this morning before quickly tapering off this
afternoon and evening. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to
Flash Flooding is in effect for parts of far southeastern Colorado, the
Texas/Oklahoma panhandles and northeastern New Mexico where 1 inch/hr rain
rates could cause runoff concerns, particularly over recent burn scars.
Heavy snow is also a concern over parts of the Central Rockies,
specifically the San Juans above 10,000 feet where over 8 inches of snow
are possible. Snow tapers off tonight as the upper low moves away into the
Great Plains.

A broad positively tilted upper trough will continue generating a
prolonged weak atmospheric river event over the Northwest over the next
couple of days. Some additional 1-2 inches of rainfall are possible for
parts of the Pacific Northwest today followed by portions of the Northern
Rockies on Monday. Any snow that falls will be confined to the highest
elevations of the Cascades.

An upper ridge will promote warm southerly flow into the Plains and
eventually East over the next several days. High temperatures in the 70s
and 80s today and Monday will represent 20-30 degree positive anomalies
for this time of year over parts of the Upper Midwest. Overnight
temperatures will be warm enough to rival low records as well. Troughing
over southern Canada and the cut-off low propagating across the Plains
will eventually push the warm air into the eastern half of the country
this week.

cone graphic

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Ecological Drought – Another Dimension to Drought – Posted on October 19, 2024

 

 

Drought has traditionally been viewed in terms of its agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomic impacts. However, this does not fully address the impacts to ecosystems, and the critical services they provide to humans. In 2017, an Ecological Drought Framework was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in conjunction with the Nature Conservancy and the Wildlife Conservation Society that intentionally considers the interconnectedness of nature and humans. The objective of this framework is to identify drought policy and natural resource management strategies that are mutually beneficial.

The National Integrated Drought Information Center (NIDIS) and the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Adaptation Science Center (NCASC) co-organized a series of four webinars in early 2021 to raise awareness of ecological drought and share new research and practical actions to strengthen ecosystem resilience to drought. These webinars introduced the ecological drought concept, and explored how to incorporate ecological drought in planning for ecosystem resilience, wildfire management, and vibrant coastal ecosystems. The series included speakers from the research community, tribal nations, and government agencies.

Remember this is the 2021 Webinar Series. If you want to watch it, click HERE. This will present the above graphic but it will be alive so you can then click on the start arrow. You may have to wait a few seconds and “skip” a commercial to get to the actual presentation.

However, the focus of this article is not the 2021 Webinar Series but the current Webinar Series on ecological drought. It is more than three years later so there has been progress in understanding the causes of and how to deal with ecological drought. There are many different kinds of drought and THIS is a pretty good explanation of the different types. Until recently the different types of drought related almost totally to the direct impact on people. The impact on ecology was almost totally ignored.  The webinar series in 2021 was one of the first attempts to consider how drought impacts ecology.  The 2024-2025 series of webinars is an attempt to better understand the impact of drought on ecology and the impact of ecology on drought.

Please click on “Read Here”  to access the body of this article.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 19, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Oct 18 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 18 2024 – 12Z Sun Oct 20 2024

…Heavy snow expected for the central and southern Rockies through
Saturday…

…Heavy rain expected for the western High Plains on Saturday ahead of an
upper low over the Four Corners region…

…Sunny and pleasant conditions for much of the Eastern U.S. through the
upcoming weekend…

A weather pattern change is in progress across the Western U.S. as an
amplified upper trough supports the passage of a strong cold front across
the Intermountain West. This will result in widespread mountain snow
across the higher elevations of the Rockies on Friday, and persisting into
Saturday across the mountainous terrain of the Four Corners region as an
upper level low develops. The potential exists for 10-20 inches of snow
across portions of Utah and Colorado, mainly above 9000 feet elevation.
It will also be turning considerably colder compared to the recent warm
weather that most of the Western U.S. has experienced so far this month.
Highs will only be in the 40s and 50s for most valley locations to close
out the work week and going into Saturday, and below freezing at night.

With the upper level low developing over Arizona, there will be a plume of
increased moisture advection across eastern New Mexico and portions of
adjacent states that will likely result in enhanced rainfall going into
Saturday, where a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall is currently depicted
in WPC’s outlook. The potential exists for 2-4 inches of rainfall here,
and this could result in some instances of flooding. Some strong to
severe thunderstorms will also be possible. Another area of enhanced
rainfall will be across western Washington, where an atmospheric river
event will likely affect Vancouver Island and the Olympic Peninsula,
producing a few inches of rainfall across the windward terrain.

Elsewhere across the continental U.S., a sprawling surface high will be
anchored in place across the Eastern U.S. and will govern the overall
weather pattern through the upcoming weekend. The result will be sunny
skies across a wide expanse of this region, and pleasantly mild conditions
during the day and cool at night. There will be a moderating trend with
temperatures compared to the recent cold spell earlier this week, and
highs are expected to be above normal for many areas with readings well
into the 70s from the Midwest to the Northeast states. The downside is
the developing short term drought conditions for much of this region, with
no rainfall expected through early next week.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

18 OCT 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Dow Opens Sharply Lower, Recover Losses To Set New Historic High, Small Cap Indexes Close Moderately Higher In The Green

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 37 points or 0.09%, (Closed at 43,276, New Historic high 43,325)
  • Nasdaq closed up 116 points or 0.63%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 23 points or 0.40%, (Closed at 5,865, New Historic closing high)
  • Gold $2,735 up $27.40 or 1.01%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $69 down $1.22 or 1.75%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.075 up 0.021 points or 0.176%,
  • USD index $103.48 down $0.35 or 0.33%,
  • Bitcoin $68,557 up $1,714 or 2.50%, (24 Hours)
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -1 to 585 Canada -2 to 217
    U.S. Rig Count is down 1 from last week to 585 with oil rigs up 1 to 482, gas rigs down 2 to 99 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 4.

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

US stocks extended their winning streak on Friday, with major indexes hitting new records: The S&P 500 rose to a fresh all-time high, marking its 6th straight week of gains – the longest streak in 2024. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.1% after setting a new closing high the previous day. Netflix’s strong earnings report helped drive the market higher: Netflix shares jumped around 11% after beating profit, revenue and subscriber growth expectations. This eased concerns about potential struggles for Big Tech companies this earnings season. For the week: The Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P 500 gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq added 0.7%. Strong bank earnings earlier in the week also boosted market sentiment. In commodities, gold prices hit a new record above $2,700 per ounce, driven by geopolitical concerns and election uncertainty. The positive momentum sets the stage for more Big Tech earnings reports in the coming days, with investors looking to see if other major companies can match Netflix’s performance.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in September 2024 were 5.7% below September 2023. Privately-owned housing starts were 0.7% below September 2023. Privately-owned housing completions were 14.6% above September 2023. Construction continues to be one of the bright spots in today’s economy. The low permits and starts numbers are because the amount of homes started but not completed remains within historical metrics.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Iran Readies New Oil Outlet To Bypass the Strait of Hormuz
  • U.S. Drilling Activity Stumbles As Prices Remain Volatile
  • Oil Slides in the Absence of Israeli Retaliation Attack
  • UAE Oil Sector Poised for 7.8% Growth in 2025
  • Billion-Barrel Oil Discoveries Drive South American Energy Cooperation
  • Stellantis to shutter and sell large testing facility amid cost-cutting efforts
  • Port of Los Angeles freight rail delays reach two-year high, with holiday and everyday items piling up
  • Dow, S&P 500 close at record highs and mark the year’s longest winning streak: Live updates
  • U.S. deficit tops $1.8 trillion in 2024 as interest on debt surpasses trillion-dollar mark
  • Netflix shares jump 11% after third-quarter earnings beat
  • Bitcoin climbs 9% for its best week in more than a month: CNBC Crypto World
  • Did Tesla Just Unveil Wireless EV Charging To Combat Cord Thefts?
  • U.S. budget deficit in fiscal 2024 swells to third-highest level on record

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates its Seasonal Outlook on October 17, 2024 – Still based on a weak La Nina starting very soon – Posted on October 18, 2024

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued their updated Seasonal Outlook which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends a bit more than one year into the future. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the following month plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as the twelve successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

With respect to the long-term part of the Outlook which I call the Four-Season Outlook, the timing of the transition from Neutral to LaNina has been challenging to predict.  We are still in ENSO Neutral. La Nina is the likely scenario soon, but the strength of the La Nina may be fairly weak..

From the NOAA discussion:

“El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions remain present, as equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-below average in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. A La Niña Watch remains in effect, with La Niña favored to emerge during September-November (SON) 2024  [Author’s Note:  We are halfway  through that period and still not in La Nina] (60% chance) [and is forecast to persist through January-March (JFM) 2025. Any La Niña event that develops this autumn is favored, however, to be a weak short duration event.”

I personally would not have total confidence in this outlook given the uncertainty about there actually being a La Nina and its strength if it does happen.  I  do not have the JAMSTEC outlook yet but for sure they will lean towards a weak La Nina with Modoki characteristics. I do not have a lot of confidence that NOAA knows how to deal with a La Nina Modoki. The number of El Nino and La Nina events since 1950 is a fairly small number. When you further segment them by strength you end up with a very small number of events in each category (El Nino v La Nina and three or four categories of strength within each of perhaps 8  to 10 subcategories. This makes both statistical methods and dynamical models have a large error range.  We are pretty confident now that we will have either a weak La Nina or Neutral with a La Nina bias meaning it will be in the Neutral Range but closer to a La Nina than an El Nino. This suggests that there is value in this forecast. The maps show the level of confidence that NOAA (really the NOAA Climate Prediction Center) has for the outlook shown when they show a part of the U.S. or Alaska differing from Normal.

BTW as aside, the NOAA discussion was written this month by my two favorite NOAA Meteorologists.

Let’s Take a Look at the (mid-month) Outlook for November

It will be updated on the last day of October.

Then we look at a graphic that shows both the next month and the next three months.

The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month.  I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term “climatology”.

Notice that the Outlook for next month and the three-month Outlook are fairly similar. This tells us that December and January will be substantially the same as November for most of CONUS and Alaska. Part of the explanation for this is that NOAA expects La Nina to impact all three months.

The full NOAA Seasonal Outlook extends through November/December/January of 2026 (yes that is more than a year out). All of these maps are in the body of the article. Large maps are provided for November and the three-month period November/December/January  Small maps are provided beyond that through November/December/January of 2026 with a link to get larger versions of these maps. NOAA provides a discussion to support the maps. It is included in the body of this article.

In some cases, one will need to click on “read more” to read the full article. For those on my email list where I have sent the url of the article, that will not be necessary.