NOAA Issues their Four-Season Outlook on May 19, 2022

May 21, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Change Appears to be Coming

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of June plus the drought outlook for the next three months.  I summarize the information issued and provide links to additional maps. Additionally, I have included quite a bit in this article. I want to remind everyone that last Thursday NOAA issued their ENSO outlook and that has a lot of influence on their Seasonal Outlook.  The Seasonal Outlook generally reflects La Nina conditions initially with no clear indication of when this La Nina will end. There could be a triple-dip La Nina.  That is not the most likely scenario but certainly can not be discounted. There is fairly good news with respect to the North American Monsoon (NAM).

The exact location of the Drought seems to be shifting a bit especially after this Summer. See the set of twelve overlapping three-month maps and my comments for details.

20May2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Friday’s Wall Street Equities Opened In The Green And Closed Mostly In The Red After A Volatile Trading Session In A Bear Market, Investors Growth Concerns, Fed Inflation Fears, Push Index’s Down

May 20, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed flat +0.03% +8.77 points,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.30%,
  • S&P 500 closed flat +0.01%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 110.64, down 0.88%,
  • USD $103.07 up 0.20%,
  • Gold 1844 up 0.02%,
  • Bitcoin up 0.99% to $29271,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury down 0.067% / 2.787%

Today’s Economic Releases:

None

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Oil Prices Under Pressure As China Considers Russian Crude
  • Russian Oil Revenues Soar Despite Sanctions
  • Kohl’s says final sale bids expected in coming weeks; retailer slashes full-year outlook after earnings miss
  • Dow Suffers Longest Losing Streak In 99 Years, Bonds & Bullion Bid
  • Ross Stores shares sink as lower-income shoppers feel the squeeze of inflation

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

19May2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: S&P 500 Approaches Bear Territory Again, Stagflation Fears Drive Three Major Indexes Into The Red, Markets Sea-Sawed Across Unchanged Line In Today’s Volatile Session

May 19, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 0.75% -237 points,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.26%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.58%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 111.22, up 1.82%,
  • USD $102.81 down 1.05%,
  • Gold 1842 down 0.03%,
  • Bitcoin down 0.13% to $30048,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury down 0.031% / 2.853%

Today’s Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed’s May 2022 Manufacturing Index remained in expansion but fell to the lowest level in two years.

According to executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc., the rate of job seekers who started their own businesses in the first quarter of 2022 hit the highest rate since the first quarter of 2019.

For week ending 14 May 2022, the 4 week rolling average for initial unemployment claims continues to modestly worsen.

April 2022 existing home sales declined for the third straight month – and down 5.9% from one year ago. Per Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist:

Higher home prices and sharply higher mortgage rates have reduced buyer activity. It looks like more declines are imminent in the upcoming months, and we’ll likely return to the pre-pandemic home sales activity after the remarkable surge over the past two years.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Here’s what Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowe’s tell us about the state of the American consumer
  • Earth’s oceans have reached the hottest and most acidic levels on record, UN says
  • Gas prices have now topped $4 in ALL 50 STATES for the first time in history
  • Gas prices just hit a new record high. Here are a few ways to cut down the cost
  • Bitcoin, Bonds, & Bullion Jump As Dollar Dumps After Dismal Data
  • Goldman Is Quietly Handing Out A “Recession Manual” To Clients

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

18May2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Decline Begins Before The Opening Bell And Deepens As Disappointing Retail Results Show Inflation Bitings Into Profits, Global Equities Tanked, Dow Closes Near Session Bottom

May 18, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 3.57% +1,165 points,
  • Nasdaq closed down 4.73%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 4.04%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 109.28, down 3.79%,
  • USD $103.85 down 0.54%,
  • Gold 1816 flat 0.00%,
  • Bitcoin up 0.20% to $29242,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury down 0.081% / 2.889%

Today’s Economic Releases

The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) increased for the first time since December 2021. The authors of this index believe there is “potential for heightened geopolitical tensions to stoke supply chain pressures in the near term.”

April 2022 new residential construction starts declined according to US Census. However, year-over-year growth improved from last month.

“Many companies are making changes at the top to address rising costs for both business and consumers,” said Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

It should come as no surprise that the NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index declined to the lowest level since the COVID recession.

At the Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, April 2022 imports continue to run at a near record pace (year-over-year) whilst exports declined 7% year-over-year. Generally speaking, a recession is unlikely when imports are in expansion year-over-year.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Gasoline Prices Top $6 In California, $9 In Parts Of Europe
  • Here’s what Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and Lowe’s tell us about the state of the American consumer
  • Target shares sink 25% after company says high costs, inventory woes hit profits
  • Stocks & Bond Yields Crater As The ‘American Consumer Is Strong’ Narrative Implodes
  • The Fed: Fed will keep raising interest rates until it is ‘confident’ inflation is moving down, Harker says

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

17May2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Rallies In Choppy Trading, Fed Powell Threatens To Continue Raising Rates: ‘Softish’ Economic Landing Possible, Equities Retreat After Feds Comments, But Close Near Session Highs

May 17, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 1.34% +431 points,
  • Nasdaq closed up 2.76%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 2.02%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 112.04, down 1.62%,
  • USD $103.31 down 0.85%,
  • Gold 1815 flat 0.00%,
  • Bitcoin up 0.88% to $30,730,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury up 0.105% / 2.984%

Today’s Economic Releases

Retail sales continue at blockbuster rates according to US Census data. The April 2022 data shows year-over-year sales increased 6.7%. HOWEVER, when adjusted for inflation (as shown in FRED’s series RRSFS), this is the second month in a row that retail sales have declined year-over-year.

According to the Federal Reserve, April 2022 industrial production data continues to grow following the COVID recession of early 2020.

CoreLogic’s Loan Performance report for February 2022 shows loan delinquencies continued to decline relative to the period one year ago.

“Consumer confidence fell slightly in April, after a modest increase in March,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Steel Demand Is Taking A Beating As China Lockdowns Persist
  • Walmart shares fall as higher costs, supply chain problems and inventories eat into profits
  • United Airlines says FAA has cleared 52 Boeing 777s to fly again after they were grounded for engine failure
  • JPMorgan Sees Gas Prices Hitting $6.20 By August
  • The Margin: Free rapid at-home COVID tests: You can order a third round from the federal government

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

16May2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Post Mostly Negatively As The Market Struggles To Recover From Multiple Weeks Of Losses, Mixed Market, Dow Slides After China Data Largely Disappoints Investors In Uncertain Session

May 16, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today

  • The Dow closed up 0.08% +27 points,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.20%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.39%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 114.87, up 3.72%,
  • USD $104.22 down 0.32%,
  • Gold 1826,10 down 0.28%,
  • Bitcoin down 1.24% to $29,536,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury down 0.51% / 2.882%

Today’s Economic Releases

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, which measures the manufacturer’s OPINION of business conditions in New York State, returned to negative territory which is normally associated with recessions.

CoreLogic’s Q1 2022 Quarterly Mortgage Fraud Index was little changed compared to Q4 2021 – however fraud risk is up 15% compared to the same quarter one year ago.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Oil Prices Surge Past $113 As Shanghai Signals End Of Lockdown
  • A severe pilot shortage in the U.S. leaves airlines scrambling for solutions
  • Inflation is the ‘top problem’ facing America, with no other issue coming close, survey shows
  • Morgan Stanley Sees S&P Tumbling As Low As 3,400: “That’s Where Valuation And Technical Support Lie”
  • The Margin: Who is Karine Jean-Pierre, the new White House press secretary making history Monday?

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

JAMSTEC Issues their Seasonal Outlook – May 13, 2022

May 14, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Usually, I compare the JAMSTEC forecast with the NOAA forecast after NOAA Issues its Seasonal Outlook. But this month, JAMSTEC was very early so I thought I would share it with everyone now. NOAA calls their predictions an outlook but JAMSTEC calls their predictions a forecast. I am going to show the JAMSTEC forecasts by month and by season and some of the indices they use in their model. They make world forecasts and for any readers who do not realize it, the U.S. is part of the world so it is covered by a world forecast. Of the two seasons that include our monsoon, I will extract the North American forecast from their world forecast and enlarge it.

I like the JAMSTEC forecast because the U.S. is part of the world and our weather is not independent of the worldwide weather pattern. In fact, most of U.S. weather originates in the Pacific Ocean and the Pacific Ocean is where Japan is located. In fact, Japan and the US jointly manage the monitoring system along the Equator that helps predict the phases of ENSO. So one of the reasons I include worldwide forecasts in articles is to encourage the understanding of worldwide weather patterns. It is not that the U.S. does not cooperate with other nations with respect to weather forecasts as it does. But to view weather forecasts on the Internet or TV you would not easily notice that. The U.S. pays hardly any attention to what other meteorological agencies predict.

For those interested in the U.S., the forecast for the Summer Monsoon and the overall placement of the drought is of interest. We will have the NOAA forecast this Thursday and it will be interesting to see the level of agreement or disagreement.

13May2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Closed Higher In A Comeback Rally, But Nasdaq Composite Posts A 2.8% Weekly Drop

May 13, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today

  • The Dow closed up 1.47% / +466,
  • Nasdaq closed up 3.82%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 2.39%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 110.30, up 3.45%
  • USD $104.59 down 0.16%
  • Gold 1809,03 down 0.36%,
  • Bitcoin up 3.6% to $29,992,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury up 0.12% / 2.937%
  • Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 13/MAY from 557 to 563

Today’s Economic Releases

The Philadelphia Fed’s Second Quarter 2022 Survey of Professional Forecasters now predicts the economic outlook is weaker. 2022 GDP annual growth is now forecast at 2.5% – down from the 3.7% forecast just three months ago.

Median Forecasts for Selected Variables in the Current and Previous Surveys

 

REAL GDP (%)

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)

PAYROLLS (000S/MONTH)

PREVIOUS

NEW

PREVIOUS

NEW

PREVIOUS

NEW
Annual data (projections are based on annual-average levels):
2022

3.7

2.5

3.7

3.6

430.9

479.7
2023

2.7

2.3

3.4

3.6

197.2

172.7
2024

2.3

2.0

3.6

3.8

N.A.

N.A.
2025

2.3

2.3

3.7

3.8

N.A.

N.A.

 

These same forecasters now forecast higher inflation. Can you believe that only three months ago – 2022 inflation was forecast the 3.8%?

Median Short-Run and Long-Run Projections for Inflation (Annualized Percentage Points)

 

HEADLINE CPI

CORE CPI

HEADLINE PCE

CORE PCE

PREVIOUS

CURRENT

PREVIOUS

CURRENT

PREVIOUS

CURRENT

PREVIOUS

CURRENT
Quarterly
Q4/Q4 Annual Averages
2022

3.8

6.1

3.6

4.8

3.1

5.0

3.1

4.1
2023

2.4

2.9

2.5

2.9

2.2

2.5

2.2

2.5
2024

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

U.S. IMPORT AND EXPORT PRICE INDEXES – APRIL 2022 – Year-over-year inflation moderated from 13.0% to 12.0%.

Student Debt Relief – A Philadelphia Fed Study found “most respondents without education debt preferred no, or relatively limited, cancellation of federal education debt (e.g., $10,000 or less per borrower). In comparison, those with education debt overwhelmingly (86 percent) preferred some debt relief. However, even among this group, there did not appear to be widespread support for canceling most or all education debt. A majority of respondents, with or without education debt, felt that any debt relief provided should be targeted.”

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Oil Prices Climb Despite Demand Destruction Claims
  • Russia To Halt Electricity Exports To Finland On Saturday
  • U.S. Rig Count Continues To Rise As WTI Hits $110
  • Twitter CEO “Expects Deal To Close” After Musk Chaos
  • Cryptocurrencies melt down in a ‘perfect storm’ of fear and panic
  • Market Snapshot: Stocks trade sharply higher as S&P 500 fights off bear-market slide; Twitter drops after Musk tweet

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.