EconCurrents

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 129 points or 0.39%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.03%,
• S&P 500 down 0.75%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $86 down $1.91,
• USD $111.59 up $0.82,
• Gold $1636 down $9.40,
• Bitcoin $20,358 down 1.38% – Session Low 20,268,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.05% up 0.044%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey show conditions, edged down three points to 6.0, suggesting a slight deceleration in output growth. Other measures of manufacturing activity also moved down this month. The new orders index slipped to -8.8―its fifth month in a row in negative territory—suggesting a continued decrease in demand. The growth rate of orders index also remained negative and dropped 12 points to -13.2.

The Chicago Business Barometer dipped a further half-point to 45.2 in October 2022, contracting for a second consecutive month. This indicator sponsored by the Institute of Supply Management – Chicago (ISM-Chicago) has a good correlation to the national indicator produced by the ISM mother organization which will be released shortly.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 829 points or 2.59%,
• Nasdaq closed up 2.87%,
• S&P 500 up 2.46%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $88 down $0.97,
• USD $110.89 down $0.11,
• Gold $1648 down $17.30,
• Bitcoin $20,620 up $360 – Session Low 20,069,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.014% up 0.057%
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -3 to 768 Canada +2 to 212

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Economic Releases:

Inflation-adjusted personal income was little changed whilst inflation-adjusted spending increased month-over-month in September 2022. The better way to look at this situation is to analyze year-over-year growth which shows spending remains fairly steady at 1.9% growth whilst income is an improving NEGATIVE 2.9% (see graph below). This tells me economic growth is holding steady. Inflation too is holding steady at 6.2% which means the federal funds rate increases are yet to have an effect.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) year-over-year pending transactions slid by 31.0%. According to the National Association of Realtors, the Federal Reserve’s inflation battle which is resulting in higher interest rates is harming the housing market. No question that the housing market is in a recession.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 194 points or 0.61%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.63%,
• S&P 500 down 0.61%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $89 up $0.78,
• USD $110.89 up $0.88,
• Gold $1666 down $3.60,
• Bitcoin $20,404 down 1.57% – Session Low 20,370,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.906% down 0.093%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Economic Releases:

The number of borrowers classified as seriously delinquent (90 or more days late) on their mortgage payments in August 2022 dropped to the lowest level recorded since April 2020, while the overall delinquency rate remained near a record low. Molly Boesel, Principal Economist for CoreLogic stated:

The share of U.S. borrowers who are six months or more late on their mortgage payments fell to a two-year low in August and was less than one-third of the pandemic high recorded in February 2021. Furthermore, the foreclosure rate remained near an all-time low, which indicates that borrowers who were moving out of late-stage delinquencies found alternatives to defaulting on their mortgages.

In the week ending October 22, the 4-week unemployment insurance weekly initial claims moving average was 217,000, an increase of from the previous week’s unrevised average of 212,250.

New orders for manufactured durable goods in September 2022 increased 11.3% year-over-year. Even after adjusting for inflation, durable goods improved 4.6% year-over-year. At this point it is obvious the economy is modestly improving even with high inflation.

The advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) shows the economy increased at an annual rate of 2.6% in 3Q2022. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6%. Advance estimates historically have been subject to significant change – but it continues the story line that the economy is modestly improving.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 2.37 points or 0.01%,
• Nasdaq closed down 2.04%,
• S&P 500 down 0.74%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $88 up $2.83,
• USD $109.71 down $1.11,
• Gold $1669 up $10.60,
• Bitcoin $20,754 up 2.80% – Session Low 20,018,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.017% down 0.093%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Economic Releases:

The number of CEO changes at U.S. companies rose 17% from 63 in August to 74 in September. CEOs who left their posts this year are four years younger on average than those who left their posts last year.

Sales of new single‐family houses in September 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 603,000.  This is 17.6% below September 2021. The median sales price of new houses sold in September 2022 was $470,600 with an average sales price of $517,700.

A summary of headlines we are reading today: