NOAA Updates their Seasonal Outlook on April 21, 2022 – High Level of Uncertainty Near and Longer Term

April 22, 2022Posted inweather2 Comments

Introduction

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of May plus the drought outlook for the next three months.  I summarize the information that was issued and provide links that will take the reader to additional maps. But I have included quite a bit in this article. I want to remind everyone that last Thursday NOAA issued their ENSO outlook and that has a lot of influence on their Seasonal Outlook.  The Seasonal Outlook generally reflects La Nina conditions initially with no clear indication of when this La Nina will end. There could be a triple-dip La Nina but that is not the most likely scenario but certainly can not be discounted. There is fairly good news with respect to the North American Monsoon (NAM).
Because of the high level of uncertainty indicated for the May Outlook, I will provide an update or publish a short addendum when the week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated later today. Sometimes that adds additional clarity. I urge readers to read the discussion that was issued by NOAA with their Outlook maps.

21Apr2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Another Down Day For The Markets

April 21, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Quick View of the markets today:

  • The Dow closed down 1.0%,
  • Nasdaq off 2.1%,
  • S&P down 1.5%,
  • crude oil unchanged at $103.90,
  • gold unchanged at $1,953,
  • Bitcoin modestly declined to $41,209,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury rose 6 basis points to 2.90%

The World Bank now estimates the destruction in Ukraine to buildings and infrastructure has reached $60 billion. Fed Chairman Powell said today that a half-point federal funds interest rate increase is on the table for the coming FOMC meeting which ends 04 May.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today including:

  • Russia’s Largest Chemical Plant Engulfed In Flames Hours After Mystery Fire At Military Research Facility
  • Food Prices Are Soaring As Russia’s War In Ukraine Persists
  • The Aerospace Industry Is Grappling With A Titanium Supply Shortage
  • CNN+ will shut down April 30, just one month after launch

20Apr2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Mixed Today With Tesla Reporting Expectation Beating Earnings

April 20, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Quick View of the markets today:

  • The Dow closed up 0.7%,
  • Nasdaq off 1.2%,
  • S&P down 0.1%,
  • crude oil unchanged at $102.60,
  • gold up marginally to $1,953,
  • Bitcoin rose to $41,253,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury off 0.08% to 2.84%

Netflix was in the news today after losing subscribers for the first time in over 10 years – and shares lost over 30% today.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today including:

  • U.S. Banks Set To Write Off $15 Billion In Russian Assets
  • U.S. To Become Worlds Top LNG Exporter This Year
  • Germany Pledges To Halt All Russian Oil Imports By End Of Year
  • 10- and 30-year Treasury yields pull back from three-year highs amid pause in bond selloff

19Apr2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Generally Up Today

April 19, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Quick View of the markets today:

  • The Dow closed up 1.5%,
  • Nasdaq unchanged,
  • S&P up 1.6%,
  • crude oil up marginally to $102.63,
  • gold off marginally to $1,952,
  • Bitcoin at $40,848,
  • Treasury yields up with the 10-year U.S. Treasury hitting 3% for the first time in three years,

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said today that the global economic recovery will “slow significantly” this year due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – downgrading their forecasts for global GDP growth to only 3.6% in 2022.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today including:

  • Oil Dips As IMF Slashes Economic Growth Forecasts
  • Netflix estimates 100 million households are sharing passwords and suggests a global crackdown is coming
  • Russia Tells Azov Fighters Trapped In Giant ‘Fortress’ Steel Plant: “Lay Down Arms Or We’ll Level Everything”
  • Get Ready For The Next Supply Chain Shockwave

 

18Apr2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: DOW Closed Down 40 Points, NASDAQ Closed Down 0.1%, The S&P 500 Closed Flat, Down 0.02%. Gold Rises To 1977, Bitcoin Rises Fractionally to 40800, WTI Crude Settles Higher At 107.32

April 18, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Wall Street fluctuated back and forth on Thursday’s closing line to finally bid for the green in the last half hour, with the BTFDers trying their best to avoid a down market. Alas, they failed with their bid. Tomorrow may see green!

Today’s roller-coaster ride was on fractionally low red volume as investors watched the Fed’s precarious decisions regarding a possible recession and obvious rescission. Unfortunately, some analysts are trash-talking those who see daylight ahead and do not realize it is a train headlight they see. According to some, the real inflation rate is 13% based on today’s data, not the 1950’s figures.

One such analyst, Wells Fargo stock strategist Chris Harvey, said last week that despite “daily calls for a recession from anyone with a megaphone, we do not expect one of the next 12 months. Rather, stagflation likely will prevail.”

We will let you decide!

 

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Commodities Soar As Bonds, Stocks, & Bitcoin Rollercoaster Wildly
  • The Fed Is Walking A Tightrope Between Recovery And Recession
  • Florida judge overturns CDC mask mandate for planes and public transit
  • Florida Judge Overturns Cdc Mask Mandate For Planes And Public Transit
  • Natural Gas Surges To Highest Level Since 2008 As Russia’s War Upends Energy Markets

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

JAMSTEC Issues their Seasonal Outlook based on April 1, 2022 Model Runs

April 17, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Usually, I compare the JAMSTEC forecast with the NOAA forecast after NOAA Issues its Seasonal Outlook. But this month, JAMSTEC was very early so I thought I would share it with everyone now. NOAA calls their predictions an outlook but JAMSTEC calls their predictions a forecast. You need a scorecard. I am going to show their forecasts by month and by season and some of the indices they use in their model. They make world forecasts and for any readers who do not realize it, the U.S. is part of the world so it is covered by a world forecast. Of the season that includes our monsoon, I will extract and enlarge their forecast for North America.

I like the JAMSTEC forecast because the U.S. is part of the world and our weather is not independent of the worldwide weather pattern. In fact, most of U.S. weather originates in the Pacific Ocean and the Pacific Ocean is where Japan is located. In fact, Japan and the US jointly manage the monitoring system along the Equator that helps predict the phases of ENSO. So one of the reasons I include worldwide forecasts in articles is to encourage the understanding of worldwide weather patterns. It is not that the U.S. does not cooperate with other nations with respect to weather forecasts as it does. But to view weather forecasts on the Internet or TV you would not easily notice that.

NOAA Updates Their ENSO Forecast – La Nina Looks to Continue

April 15, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

This may read like a repeat of a prior article but it is not. It is simply that the situation has not really changed. On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted somewhat from last month. The forecast calls for the La Nina to continue.  The timing is shown in the NOAA discussion and the IRI probability analysis. Of importance, the chances of a Triple Dip La Nina are not at all ruled out. That could be a real disaster for the Southwest and the West Coast.

The impact of the NOAA forecast for the slow or non-existent transition from La Nina to ENSO Neutral will show up next Thursday when NOAA issues its Seasonal Outlook. The NOAA ENSO Status Update provides an advance indication of how the Outlook might change. There is a lag between the ENSO state and the impact on U.S. weather.  Thus the exact date when La Nina meets the criteria for ENSO Neutral may not be very important in terms of the actual impact on Spring and Summer weather including the North American Monsoon (NAM).  We may see some changes farther out in the NOAA Outlook that will be issued next Thursday in particular Fall and Winter. But the possibility of a Triple Dip should be of considerable concern but it most likely will not be reflected in the Outlook issued next Thursday since it remains unlikely but possible. We will learn more about what NOAA thinks next Thursday.

14Apr2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: DOW Closed Down 113 points, NASDAQ Down 2.1%, S&P 500 Down 1.2%, WTI Crude Higher At 106.15, USD Higher At 100.33, Bitcoin Slips Again To 39800 While Dogecoin Rises $0.1413

April 14, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Today ends a shorter week for Wall Street as it heads into the Easter weekend, ending the trading week at the closing bell. In addition, the U.S. stock markets will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday.

The equities open higher this morning only to slip downward with NASDAQ sharply off session highs. Bank earnings share Wall Street’s fall today, inflation fears, and the Ukraine war continues to shake investors. Now, investors are digesting a flurry of mixed quarterly reports from Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (G.S.), Morgan Stanley (M.S.), and Citigroup (C).

This morning’s financial report showed Initial Jobless Claims 09/APR rose to 185K from 167K. Moreover, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel APR rose to 65.7 from 59.4. Adding to this are the super-high gas prices and the highest inflation in forty years that held back consumer spending as March retail sales slowed from their February levels.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • How Will Chinas New Lockdowns Impact Commodity Prices?
  • Sustainable Recovery Spending Could Be Derailed By Commodity Price Spikes Following Ukraine War
  • Retail Sales Rose 0.5% In March Amid Inflation Jump; Import Prices Hit 11-Year High
  • Morgan Stanley Earnings Top Estimates Fueled By Trading Revenue Gains
    The Fed Just Disengaged Its Volatility Suppression Machine
  • The Ratings Game: Elon Musk Says Twitter Shareholders Should ‘Love’ His Buyout Offer, But Wall Street Doesn’t Seem To Agree

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

13Apr2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: DOW Closed Up 344, NASDAQ Sharply Higher +2.0%, WTI Crude Higher 104.17, Bitcoin Rises To 41100, USD Slips Below 100 To 99.19

April 13, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Global equities rose today despite inflation scares and the continuing war in Ukraine. U.S. equities finished near session highs as bond yields slip, and Fed’s Waller says inflation may have peaked – NOT! Stocks rally on mostly positive earnings, snapping a 3-day losing streak for the S&P 500, closing up 1.1%.

Salient notes from the Labor Department’s report:

“Gasoline prices skyrocketed 48%, and one analysts says, breakfast cereal is the new reserve currency because cereal prices jumped 9.2%. Not outdone, meat prices have spiked even more to a scary 14.8%. Men’s jackets, suits, and coats will cost you 14.5% more, and airline fares rose 10.7%. Think again about buying a used car. Prices have spiked 35% over the past year.”

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • India Faces Coal Shortage, Again
  • U.S. Energy Grid Faces Huge Problems Amid Push To Electrify Everything
  • Jamie Dimon Sees ‘Storm Clouds’ Ahead For U.S. Economy Later This Year
  • Russian Oligarch Roman Abramovich Has $7 Billion In Assets Frozen In Jersey In Latest Ukraine Fallout

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.