05Dec2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Equities Opened Lower And Trended Down To Close Near Session Bottom As Economic Soft Landing Hopes Fade

December 5, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 483 points or 1.40%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.93%,
  • S&P 500 down 1.79%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 77 down $2.67,
  • USD $105.32 uo $0.78,
  • Gold 1780 down $29.70,
  • Bitcoin $16,945 down 1.45% – Session Low 16,895,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.588% up 0.085%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

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New orders for manufactured goods in October 2022, up twelve of the last thirteen months, increased by 1.0%, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. In perspective, inflation-adjusted sales (red line on the graph below) – continue in contraction year-over-year.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Gasoline Prices Continue To Plummet In The U.S.
  • Apple Ramps Up Efforts To Move Production Of Out China
  • North Face owner VF Corp. falls 10% after guidance cut, CEO steps down
  • DHL buying Ford E-Transit cargo vans showcases the automaker’s electric vehicle strategy
  • Los Angeles bans oil and gas drilling within city limits
  • Stocks, Bonds, Bullion, & Black Gold Battered As ‘Soft Landing’ Hopes Fade
  • Iranians Skeptical That Morality Police Actually Disbanded After Surprise Announcement
  • FA Center: This little-known but spot-on economic indicator says recession and lower stock prices are all but certain

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Looking Ahead 28 Days from December 2, 2022 Plus Weekend Report

December 3, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:40 p.m. EST on December 5, 2022

Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days 1 and 2, Days  1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. We also include a next-day and 10-Day Global Average Temperature and Cumulative Precipitation Forecast. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the weekend and the next 28 days. I will update the article with more recent short-term forecasts: Saturday through Monday

We see the expected movement of cold air from west to east of the pattern described in our prior Friday article and perhaps the area impacted shrinking in Weeks 3 and 4. It is quite similar to the overall Outlook predicted when the December Outlook was updated on Wednesday. Precipitation is expansive at first but the southern tier drought pattern gets started in Weeks 3 and 4. We had concerns about the 28-Day Outlook last week and did an experiment where we added the daily updates of the 6 – 10 and 8 – 14 day forecasts each day through Monday. We did not learn too much but I think we are seeing that the forecast last week may have been just a little bit early with its forecast as the flow seems smoother this week. But it may be that they actually nailed it last week. The maps are easy to read. But the maps reflect compromises by the forecasters. They are dealing with conflicting results from their various tools. But they can only produce one map (or that is all they issue). There is a discussion for the 6 – 10 day and 8 – 14 day maps but I do not include them to keep the size of the article reasonable. The links provided would take you to those discussions except on weekends as they are not issued on weekends. I could update those maps on Mondays (like I did last week) but it is a lot of work for me and most readers would not come back on Monday to see the comparison and I am not always available to do an update when NOAA issues their Monday version of the maps with their discussions until later in the day. But the links are there for the curious.

When we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the Media and online. The amount of information about weather provided to the general public is quite limited. It is available to the public. But most do not have the time or level of interest to seek it out. My articles are at an intermediate level between what is generally available from the Media (ten-day forecasts and a good explanation for the first couple of days and the information used by meteorologists to produce these forecasts for general distribution. So I focus on longer timeframes and more depth into why the forecasts are what they are.

02Dec2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Dow Closes Fractionally Higher, S&P 500 And NASDAQ Down Fractionally

December 2, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 35 points or 0.10%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.18%,
  • S&P 500 down 0.12%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 80 down $0.98,
  • USD $104.56 down $0.16,
  • Gold $1812 down $2.80,
  • Bitcoin $17,006 up 0.57% – Session Low 16,861,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.492% down 0.035%
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. unchanged at 784 Canada +1 to 195

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7% according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The biggest job gains were in leisure and hospitality, health care, and government. Employment declined in retail trade and in transportation and warehousing. The BLS reduced the workforce by 186,000. It was interesting that the household survey reduced the number employed by 138,000 – and contrast that with the establishment survey which produces the headline number growth of 263,000. 263,000 is more than a satisfactory employment growth number but I believe there are warning signs in the data – especially in temporary help which fell 17,200 which is a bellwether number indicating softening of the labor market. The graph below compare the ADP growth numbers (blue line) to today’s BLS numbers (red line). From the graph, one can see the continued moderation of employment growth during 2022.

As pandemic concerns recede to probably their lowest point since lockdowns began in early 2020, companies are ready to celebrate in-person with their teams. According to new survey results from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc., 56.9% of companies report they are having in-person holiday parties this year, up from 26.6% who reported this last year and just 5.3% who held in-person parties in 2020.  Another nearly 2% will hold virtual events this year, down from 7% in 2021 and 17% in 2020. Nearly 6% of companies reported they held in-person gatherings outside, during warm weather this year in lieu of holding year-end celebrations.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Asia Splurges On Record Oil Imports Ahead Of Sanctions On Russia
  • The Environmental Consequence Of Burning Rubber
  • U.S. Oil, Gas Drilling Activity Goes Nowhere
  • Senate approves bill enforcing railroad labor agreement before strike deadline, sends to Biden
  • FCC authorizes SpaceX to begin deploying up to 7,500 next-generation Starlink satellites
  • The Fed Is Not “A Good Idea That Became Corrupt”: It Always Was Corrupt
  • Futures Movers: Oil ends lower for the session, up for the week, ahead of OPEC+ meeting, EU ban on Russian oil
  • Retail and warehousing jobs actually fell in November. It reveals a lot about the typical holiday shopper.

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

01Dec2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Close Mixed As Yesterday’s Euphoria Over Powell’s Speech Wanes

December 1, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 193 points or 0.56%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.13%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.08%,
  • Gold $1817 up $57.20,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $81 up $0.81,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.508% down 0.193%,
  • USD index $104.72 down $1.23,
  • Bitcoin $16,913 down $260.80

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

Small businesses reporting labor quality as their top small business operating problem remains elevated at 21%, according to NFIB’s monthly jobs report. Nine percent of owners reported labor cost as their single most important problem, down one point from October.

U.S.-based employers announced 76,835 cuts in November, a 127% increase from the 33,843 cuts announced in October. It is 417% higher than the 14,875 cuts announced in the same month last year. The bulk of the job cuts were in the tech sector.

Disposable personal income (DPI) increased by 0.7% and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.8%. The PCE price index increased by 0.3%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased by 0.2%. Year-over-year growth shows income is down 4.9% year-over-year (blue line on the graph below whilst expenditures is up 2.1% year-over-year (red line on the graph below).

Construction spending during October 2022 was estimated at 9.2% above the October 2021. Unfortunately, inflation in this sector is significant and the year-over-year growth is -8.7% (see graph below).

In the week ending November 26, the unemployment insurance weekly claims 4-week moving average was 228,750, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 226,750 to 227,000. Claims have stayed relatively stable throughout 2022.

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in November for the first time since May 2020 after 29 consecutive months of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. “The November Manufacturing PMI registered 49%, 1.2 percentage points lower than the 50.2% recorded in October. The Manufacturing PMI figure is the lowest since May 2020.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Oil Prices Could Sink Without Further OPEC+ Action
  • Biden Administration Mulls Complete Revamp Of Biofuels Mandate
  • Scientists Find Two Completely New Minerals On Meteorite
  • Tax ‘refunds may be smaller in 2023,’ warns IRS. Here’s why
  • House approves tentative labor deal to avoid rail strike, sends to Senate
  • Mortgage rates fall for the third straight week, but demand still drops further
  • Jefferies Warns Employees Of Reduced Bonuses As Dealmaking Slows
  • Yield Curve Is Telling Us Next Fed Cutting Cycle Could Be Big

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

NOAA Updates it’s December 2022 Outlook on November 30, 2022

December 1, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Wildfire Outlooks Updated at 7:50 pm EST December 1, 2022 (It gradually increases through March but is limited to two areas).

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is December. They also issue a Drought Outlook for the following month. We are reporting on that this morning.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for December and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We highlighted some of the important changes within the NOAA Discussion.  Of particular interest is the increased penetration of modified Artic air into the Lower 48 States (CONUS) and wet Pacific air to provide for a wet Northwest extending farther south along the West Coast. We end up with a wet, dry, wet, dry pattern extending NE to SE with a tendency for there to be wet Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

The CLIMAS Podcast discusses some of the weather transitions we have seen and what may develop as this La Nina finally transitions to ENSO Neutral.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for December. We have also included the current fire incidents (not many) and four months of Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks and also a map showing the year-to-date precipitation in the West. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.

U.S. 48-Hour and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks, Tropical, and World Weather – Updated during December 1 and 2, 2022

December 1, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to tonight (Updated at 5:40 pm EST December 2, 2022) and the next 48 hours from Friday Afternoon’s NWS Forecast. We may do some additional updating on this article but it will be replaced tonight or early Saturday morning with the 28-Day Outlook so look for it Econcurrents.com Author Sig Silber.

...Critical Fire Weather threat for parts of the Central Plains...

...Coastal rain and heavy mountain snow likely in the West...

...Cool down in store for northern tier and eastern half of country this
weekend...

30Nov2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Fed Chair Says “The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting” – And The Markets Jump

November 30, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 737 points or 2.18%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 4.41%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 3.09%,
  • Gold $1784 up $20.40,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $81 up $2.42,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.639% down 0.108%,
  • USD index $106.03 down $0.79,
  • Bitcoin $17,049 up $613

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell awaited speech on the direction of FOMC federal funds rate increases is summarized in his speech conclusion:

Monetary policy affects the economy and inflation with uncertain lags, and the full effects of our rapid tightening so far are yet to be felt. Thus, it makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down. The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting. Given our progress in tightening policy, the timing of that moderation is far less significant than the questions of how much further we will need to raise rates to control inflation, and the length of time it will be necessary to hold policy at a restrictive level. It is likely that restoring price stability will require holding policy at a restrictive level for some time. History cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. We will stay the course until the job is done.

According to the Federal Reserve’s 30 November 2022 Beige Book, economic activity was about flat or up slightly since the previous report, down from the modest average pace of growth in the prior Beige Book period. Five Districts reported slight or modest gains in activity, and the rest experienced either no change or slight-to-modest declines. Interest rates and inflation continued to weigh on activity, and many contacts expressed greater uncertainty or increased pessimism concerning the outlook.

The second estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 3Q2022 showed 2.9% quarter-over-quarter growth.  In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was estimated at 2.6%. The second estimate primarily reflected upward revisions to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased more than previously estimated (refer to “Updates to GDP”). Please note that comparing 3Q2021 to 3Q2022 (year-over-year) the real GDP growth was 1.9%.

Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter
The number of job openings (JOLTS) edged down to 10.3 million on the last business day of October 2022 from last month’s 10.7. Over the month the number of hires and total separations changed little at 6.0 million and 5.7 million, respectively. This might be suggesting the economy is slightly moderating.
The Chicago Business Barometer tumbled a further eight points to 37.2 in November 2022, contracting for a third consecutive month. Excluding the 2020 pandemic shock, this was the lowest reading since the 2008/09 Global Financial Crisis. This barometer is generally a good indicator for the ISM manufacturing survey which will be released soon.

Pending home sales dropped for the fifth consecutive month in October 2022, down 4.6% from September. Pending sales declined in all regions compared to one year ago with pending transactions slipping by 37.0% year-over-year. Home buyers are faced with 20-year-high mortgage rates.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Centrica Sets Out To Develop A UK Hydrogen Economy
  • Reuters Survey: OPEC Cut 710,00 Bpd In November
  • Putin Pushes To Establish A Natural Gas Union In Central Asia
  • House approves tentative labor deal to avoid rail strike, sends to Senate
  • Mortgage rates fall for the third straight week, but demand still drops further
  • Wall Street Reacts To Powell’s Dovish Speech As Markets Explode Higher
  • “We’re In For A Really Big Mess” – Charles Nenner Warns “War Cycle To Really Heat Up In 2023”

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

December 2022 Economic Forecast: Our Indicators Predict Continued Moderation Of Economic Growth

November 30, 2022Posted ineconomy, macroeconomicsNo Comments

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index slowed again this month and continues to show the lowest level of growth since the 2020 recession. The ongoing weakness of transport, and imports continues to weigh on our economic forecast. There is no question we live in interesting economic times as the future economic impacts of inflation and COVID are unpredictable. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

A look back at October 2022 State Rankings in the U.S.

November 30, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

I realize that soon we will be looking back at November but it makes sense to look back at October. We should have done it a couple of weeks ago when we looked at October from a global perspective.

State ranking is interesting because it is not based on how the climate of the US is changing but on how the climate of each state compares to other states. But it does this by looking at how the climate of a state for a given period of time compares to the state’s 128-year recent history. There are many ways to present data and I like this approach a lot.

In this article, we look at the month of October 2022 and the year-to-date data for 2022 through October.