To me, the top three fake American intellects after the end of World War II are Milton Friedman, Ayn Rand, and Francis Fukuyama. Their works achieved some success in their respective times, but failed to stand the test of time!
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
The Producer Price Index for final demand increased by 8.0% for the 12 months that ended in October 2022. This is down from last month”s 8.4% and the lowest PPI inflation rate in a year. Some pundits believe this takes the pressure off of the Federal Reserve to continue to raise the federal funds rate – however, 8.0% is still a very large number and I believe the rate has to fall below 5% to take the pressure off.
The November 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey’s headline general business conditions index climbed fourteen points to 4.5 – and is now in positive territory.
Single-family rents increased 10.2% year-over-year in September, down from 13.9% in April 2022. Low-priced rent growth continued at record double-digit annual gains, up 12.1%, while higher-priced rent growth decelerates at the fastest pace since the April peak. Florida metros saw the highest single-family rent growth, with Miami posting a year-over-year increase of 20.1%.
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
...Light snow accumulations across the mid-Missouri Valley and Midwest through Tuesday morning... ...Coastal rain; inland mixed precipitation on Tuesday evening into Wednesday across Northeast and Mid-Atlantic as coastal low develops and moves up coast... ...Anomalously cold air will continue to grip the lower 48 through the work week... ...Strong Santa Ana winds return across Southern California on Tuesday; High Wind Warnings in effect...
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
From the Survey of Consumer Expectations:
Median one- and three-year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 5.9 percent and 3.1 percent from 5.4 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively. The median five-year-ahead inflation expectations, meanwhile, rose by 0.2 percentage point to 2.4 percent. Household income growth expectations touched a series high of 4.3 percent, up from 3.5 percent in September, while households’ expectations about credit access one year from now worsened. Median home price growth expectations were unchanged at 2.0 percent, the measure’s lowest reading since July 2020. Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased to its highest reading since April 2020 of 42.9 percent.
From the Fourth Quarter 2022 Survey of Professional Forecasters:
The outlook for the U.S. economy looks weaker now than it did three months ago, according to 38 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 1.0 percent this quarter, down from the prediction of 1.2 percent in the last survey. Over the next three quarters, the panelists also see slower output growth than they predicted three months ago. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters expect real GDP to increase 0.7 percent in 2023 and 1.8 percent in 2024. These annual projections are lower than the estimates in the previous survey.
| REAL GDP (%) | UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%) | PAYROLLS (000S/MONTH) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PREVIOUS | NEW | PREVIOUS | NEW | PREVIOUS | NEW | ||||
| Quarterly data: | |||||||||
| 2022:Q4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 167.9 | 217.6 | |||
| 2023:Q1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 89.0 | 79.0 | |||
| 2023:Q2 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 96.6 | 35.8 | |||
| 2023:Q3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 80.7 | 41.8 | |||
| 2023:Q4 | N.A. | 2.1 | N.A. | 4.4 | N.A. | -14.5 | |||
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e. La Nina Advisory, the forecast has again been adjusted slightly from the prior month. There is some disagreement on when this La Nina will end with the best guess being perhaps March.
But I have actually seen only a few signs of it starting to happen. But all the meteorologists agree that it will. Could they all be wrong? Probably not.
...Lake-effect snow downwind from the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday... ...Light snow from the Southern High Plains to the Upper Midwest Monday evening into Tuesday... ...There are Winter Weather Advisories across parts of the Central Plains for Monday...
We provide a daily report which focuses on the shorter-term predictions but also has links to all the partial-month outlooks. Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days 1 and 2, Days1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the next 28 days.
The key dynamic for CONUS is the High Pressure over Alaska which brings cold air into the U.S. Northwest. We end up with cool and dry over most of CONUS which first moderates and later becomes a mostly warm and dry pattern as a new atmospheric-driven storm moves into the West Coast.
When we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the media and online.
We also include a 10-Day World Temperature and Precipitation Forecast.
...Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicole will merge with an approaching cold front while spreading heavy rain across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Saturday... ...Below average temperatures for much of the lower 48 by Sunday... ...Freeze and Hard Freeze Warnings in effect over portions of the Southern Plains tonight...
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
No releases on Veteran’s Day.
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
...Tropical Cyclone NICOLE will slowly weaken and move northward, becoming Post-Tropical by Friday evening... ...Heavy snow is to begin to wind down over the Upper Midwest on Friday... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast through Saturday morning... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southeast on Thursday, moving to the Northeast on Friday...
