Daily Report for the next 48 hours or a bit more from July 14, 2022 plus access to Tropical Outlooks and Intermediate-term Outlooks

July 14, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Continuing chances for heavy rain and scattered flash flooding forecast
across the central Gulf Coast and Southeast...

...Isolated instances of flash flooding possible over the Southwest and
parts of the central/southern Rockies associated with monsoon activity...

...Severe thunderstorms capable of containing damaging wind gusts are
possible across parts of the northern High Plains and Mid-South through
tonight...

...Dangerous heat and humidity persists across much of the central United
States and Great Basin through the end of the week... 

13July2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Turned Down After CPI Inflation Hits 9.1% YoY.

July 13, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 209 points or 0.67%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.15%,
  • S&P 500 down 0.45%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $96 down 7.61%,
  • USD $107.96 down 0.18%,
  • Gold $1733 up 0.06%,
  • Bitcoin $19,626 down 3.29% – Session Low 19,058,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.91% down 0.048%

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June 2022 rose significantly and was the largest monthly rise since September 2005.

Overall, consumer prices grew at 9.1% over the last 12 months – the highest level since 1981.

You can blame much of the rise of the CPI on energy. You can assume the following:

  1. The June Employment picture saw significant growth. Since the Federal Reserve is charged with maintaining jobs growth and controlling inflation – they are free to raise the federal funds rate by 75 basis points at their next meeting later this month;
  2. There has been a moderation in energy prices recently. It is likely that this 9.1% inflation rate will be the largest this year (all things being equal).
  3. Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased by 1.0% in June – inflation was responsible for this decrease.

The Federal Reserve released its Beige Book for July 2022, and states in part:

Economic activity expanded at a modest pace, on balance, since mid-May; however, several Districts reported growing signs of a slowdown in demand, and contacts in five Districts noted concerns over an increased risk of a recession. Most Districts reported that consumer spending moderated as higher food and gas prices diminished households’ discretionary income.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Biden: Inflation Data Does Not Reflect Impact Of Gasoline Price Decline
  • ESG Funds Reel As Investors Pile Into Energy And Defense Stocks
  • Peloton competitor Tonal cuts 35% of the workforce as it prepares for possible recession, IPO
  • PepsiCo raises revenue forecast as it deploys price hikes, smaller sizes to fight rising costs
  • California Governor Signs Bill Allowing Victims to Sue Gun-Makers
  • ‘Scary times’: Builders are slashing home prices and slowing construction as buyers pull back, survey shows

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Daily Report for the next 48 hours from July 13, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks and Tropical Outlooks

July 13, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Gulf Coast to The Southern Appalachians on Wednesday and expanding to the
southern Mid-Atlantic Coast on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Rockies/High Plains through Thursday morning...

...Dangerous heat and humidity across parts of the South Plains to the
Lower Mississippi Valley will continue as well as parts of the Northern
High Plains and Great Basin... 

12Jul2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Continue To Decline As Signs Of A Slowing Economy Continue

July 12, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 192 points or 0.62%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.95%,
  • S&P 500 down 0.92%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $95.80 down 8.0%,
  • USD $108.17 up 0.15%,
  • Gold $1723 down 0.46%,
  • Bitcoin $19,463 down 2.4%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.967% flat 0.0%

Today’s Economic Releases:

CoreLogic’s Loan Performance Insights Report for April 2022 shows 2.9% of all mortgages in the U.S. were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure), representing a 1.8 percentage point decrease compared to 4.7% in April 2021.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped 3.6 points in June to 89.5, marking the sixth consecutive month below the 48-year average of 98. Small business owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months decreased seven points to a net negative 61%, the lowest level recorded in the 48-year survey. Expectations for better conditions have worsened every month this year.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased in June and now stands at its lowest level since February 2021.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • BlackRock Is Bracing For Persistent Inflation
  • Copper Prices Plummet To Lowest Levels Since 2020
  • Hedge Funds Are Unloading Oil Futures In A Hurry
  • OPEC Remains 1 Million Bpd Below Target
  • Long Beach Container Backlog Crosses Red Line As Delays Mount
  • Stocks Sink, Yield Curve Inverts, Crude Crashes As Global Stagflation Accelerates

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 12, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks and Tropical Outlooks

July 12, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Dangerous heat to continue across portions of the southern Plains...

...Severe storms possible from the Midwest this evening to the Mid
Atlantic and Northeast tomorrow...

...Heavy rains will be possible along portions of the northern Gulf Coast
from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next several days...

11July2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Moved Lower As Labor Market Reality-Check Sends Stocks, Bond Yields Tumbling

July 11, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 164 points or 0.52%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 2.26%,
  • S&P 500 down 1.15%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 104 down 1.05%,
  • USD $108.14 up 1.07%,
  • Gold $1731 flat 0.00%,
  • Bitcoin $20469 down 1.69% – Session Low 20293,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.998% down 0.103%

Today’s Economic Releases:

The June 2022 Survey of Consumer Expectations which showed an increase in short-term inflation expectations but a decline in medium-term and longer-term inflation expectations. Home price growth expectations declined sharply.

Thinking of the June 2022 BLS Employment report which came in red hot last Friday – there was a big bust between the two surveys that comprise the report. The household survey showed a 353,000 DECLINE in jobs whilst the establishment survey showed a 381,000 GAIN in jobs. This is not the first month this year this “bust” has occurred. It could be that an underlying dynamic change is invalidating the accuracy of the data gathering methodology of one or both of the surveys. The graph below shows the net change monthly for the last 5 months in the household and the establishment surveys.

The federal budget deficit was $514 billion in the first nine months of the fiscal year 2022.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Soaring Prices Have Led To An Uptick In Oil Theft In Colombia

  • French Industry Switches To Oil From Gas Amid Uncertainty Over Russian Supply
  • Homebuyers are canceling deals at the highest rate since the start of the pandemic
  • Texas grid operator tells residents to curb power as heat hits record highs
  • Ford’s Mustang Mach-E electric crossover is a hit with industry insiders — that could help it take on Tesla
  • Labor Market Reality-Check Sends Stocks, Bond Yields Tumbling
  • Oil Dumped By Hedge Funds On Soaring Recession Risk
  • Living With Climate Change: ERCOT warning: 5 electricity blackout risks facing the entire U.S., not just Texas
  • Futures Movers: Natural-gas futures gain more than 6% on the shutdown of key European pipeline

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 11, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks and Tropical Outlooks

July 10, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Oppressive to dangerous heat and humidity continues across the southern
Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley as some relief from the heat
moves into the central High Plains...

...Heat increases across the Desert Southwest and interior valleys of
California...

...Threat of heavy rain moving southward into the Southeast next couple of
days as another heavy rain threat emerges near the central Gulf Coast...

...Severe thunderstorms threat expected to track across the northern tier
states for the next couple of days...

Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 10, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks and Tropical Outlooks

July 10, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Dangerous heat and humidity continues across parts of the southern
Plains to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through Monday...

...Areas of heavy rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic expected to push
southward into the Southeast on Sunday...

...Severe thunderstorms possible tonight and Sunday over parts of the
northern Rockies to northern Plains, as well as  parts of the Deep South
tonight...



















	




	
	

		08July2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Nasdaq Rises For Fifth-Straight Day After Hot jobs Report, Pushed Recession Fears Back In Investor’s Minds, Wall Street Notches Winning Week	





		
			
		
		July 8, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments




	
Summary Of the Markets Today:


    

  • The Dow closed down 46 points or 0.15%,
    • 

  • Nasdaq closed up 0.12%,
    • 

  • S&P 500 down 0.08%,
    • 

  • WTI crude oil settled at 105 up 2.46%,
    • 

  • USD $106.98 down 0.05%,
    • 

  • Gold $1741 flat 0.00%,
    • 

  • Bitcoin $21778 up 0.83% – Session Low 21215,
    • 

  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.088% up 0.08%
    • 

  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +2 to 752 Canada +9 to 175
    • 



Today’s Economic Releases:


A strong jobs report for June 2022 shows gains of 372,000 in non-farm employment and the unemployment rate remains at 3.6%. This likely paves the way for a 3/4% increase in the federal funds rate at the next FOMC meeting as the Fed is charged with controlling inflation and maximizing jobs growth. The biggest employment gains were in health care (56.7K) and restaurants/bars (40.8k).




Wholesale trade for May 2022 were up 20.9% year-over-year whilst inventories were up 24.7%. This is considered a strong report.




In May 2022, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.9% according to the Federal Reserve. We have been hearing a lot that the consumer, due to inflation, is turning to their credit cards. However, the Fed’s headlines are not inflation adjusted (nor do they have perspective) – please see chart below where it ratios credit outstanding to consumer spending. In this chart, note that when adjusting for inflation and spending – consumer credit is about average for the 21st century.






A summary of headlines we are reading today:


    

  • Oil Prices Bounce Back From Shocking Collapse
    • 

  • Rig Count Climbs As Oil Prices Bounce Back
    • 

  • Biden says Supreme Court is ‘out of control,’ orders HHS to protect abortion access
    • 

  • Walmart won’t hold rival event to Amazon Prime Day, as it is already offering big markdowns
    • 

  • Commodities Crushed & Bonds Battered As Stocks & The Dollar Soar
    • 

  • Bond Report: Treasury yields reach highest levels in more than a week after robust U.S. jobs data
    • 



These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.





















	




	
	

		Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 8, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks	





		
			
		
		July 8, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
This is still an experimental article (we are working to be sure all the images update)


Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s  NWS Forecast:


...Dangerous heat and humidity to continue from parts of the central and
southern Plains to the Southeast...

...Unsettled weather including severe storms and heavy rain to continue
along a slow-moving boundary extending from the central Plains to the
Southeast...

...Severe storms possible into the weekend across Montana...