July 19: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

July 19, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Record Breaking Heat to continue into mid week across the Central and
Southern Plains...

...Severe Thunderstorms possible from portions of the Northern Plain into
the Upper Great Lakes...

...Monsoonal showers to bring locally heavy rains and isolated Flash
Flooding across portions of the Southwest, Great Basin and Southern
Rockies...

...A Fire Weather threat will stretch from the Northern Rockies into the
Northern Great Basin and Central High Plains...

18Jul2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Decline. Oil Up As Traders Assessed the Saudi Sentiment Following President Biden’s Meeting With the Crown Prince.

July 18, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 216 points or 0.69%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.81%,
  • S&P 500 down 0.84%,
  • WTI crude oil at $102.27 up $4.78%,
  • USD $107.44 down 0.58%,
  • Gold $1705 down 0.12%,
  • Bitcoin $21,527 up 3.6%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.967% unchanged

Today’s Economic Releases:

In June 2022, employers added 884,000 jobs for teens aged 16 to 19, a 41% increase from the number of job gains for teens in June 2021, when 625,000 jobs were added.

According to the June 2022 New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) Credit Access Survey:

  • The application rate for any type of credit over the past twelve months increased to 46 percent in June, up from 44 percent in February. The increase was driven by older (over 60) respondents and respondents with a credit score between 680 and 760. Overall, credit applications were approved at a slightly lower rate.

  • The credit card application rate over the past twelve months increased to 28 percent, its highest rate since June 2019. The increase was driven by those with credit scores between 680 and 760. The rejection rate for credit card applications declined to 17 percent from 20 percent in February.

  • The mortgage refinance application rate over the past twelve months dropped to 11 percent (among households with a mortgage), returning to its February 2020 level.

  • Rejection rates for auto loan, home loan, and mortgage refinance applications all increased.

  • The average probability of applying for a credit card or a credit card limit increase over the next twelve months rose slightly in June, while it declined for auto and home loans and mortgage refinances.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • $100+ Oil Is Back For The Long Haul
  • Canada Sends Repaired Gazprom Turbine To Germany
  • IEA Urges Europe To Take Immediate Measures To Conserve Gas
  • Homebuilder sentiment plunges in July as buyers pull back
  • Delta buys 100 Boeing Max planes, its first major order with the manufacturer in more than a decade
  • Beijing Panics, Scrambles To Halt Mortgage Boycott By “Urging” Banks To Rush Developer Loans
  • Apple Plunge Drags Down Market After Reports Of Hiring & Spending Slowdown

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Daily Report for the next 48 hours or a bit more from July 18, 2022 plus access to Tropical Outlooks and Intermediate-term Outlooks

July 18, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Dangerous and record-breaking heat to impact much of the Great Plains...

...Scattered instances of flash flooding and severe thunderstorms possible
throughout the Ohio Valley into tonight before the threat shifts into the
Northeast on Monday...

...Severe weather chances enter the northern Plains on Monday and swing
into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Tuesday...

Daily Report for the next 48 hours or a bit more from July 17, 2022 plus access to Tropical Outlooks and Intermediate-term Outlooks

July 17, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Dangerous record-breaking heat to continue across the central United
States and parts of the West...

...Scattered flash flooding possible across much of the Ohio Valley on
Sunday, with isolated heavy rainfall forecast across the Southwest through
the beginning of next week...

...Severe weather possible across the northern Plains on Monday...

Friday looking ahead 28 days July 15, 2022

July 16, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

NOAA updates many of their weather outlooks and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. On Fridays, they issue a week 3 – 4 outlook which is farther out than the typical 10-day forecast and the discussion is excellent. So we have decided to issue a special report on Fridays. When we issue the Seasonal Outlook on the third Thursday, we may sometimes issue the Friday report as an update to the Seasonal Outlook.

When the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued, we have a 28-day view of the future. It is important to recognize that the predictions do not always work out as predicted but in the article, there are links to obtain updated predictions.

It is not surprising that the forecast is relatively static and not showing much change over the 28-day period. And the dominant characteristic is hot.

Daily Report for the next 48 hours or a bit more from July 16, 2022 plus access to Tropical Outlooks and Intermediate-term Outlooks

July 16, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Dangerous heat to continue across much of the Central and Western
United States...

...Heavy rain and possible flash flooding for portions of the
Intermountain West, Rockies, and Gulf Coast region through tonight, with
severe weather possible across the northern High Plains...

...Instances of flash flooding possible throughout the Ohio Valley on
Sunday...

15July2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Dow Swings 1200 Points In 2 Session Closing Solidly In The Green At Session High. Real Retail Sales Remain In Contraction.

July 15, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 658 points or 2.15%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.79%,
  • S&P 500 up 1.92%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 98 up 1.06%,
  • USD $108.03 down 0.56%,
  • Gold $1705 down 0.03%,
  • Bitcoin $21,075 up 2.07% – Session Low 20,385,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.926% down 0.033%
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +4 to 756 Canada +16 to 191

NOAA Updates its ENSO Analysis on July 14, 2022 – Increasing Chances of a Three-peat

July 15, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted somewhat from last month. The forecast calls for the La Nina to continue but weaken during the Summer. Then it’s forecast to strengthen again in the Fall and Winter. The timing is shown in the NOAA discussion and the IRI probability analysis.

Of importance, the chances of a Triple Dip La Nina are still difficult to predict but seem to be higher than the estimate last month. I am not exactly sure how you define a Three-Peat. If it has to do with extending into early Winter the odds seem to be a bit higher. This is not likely to change the forecast for Winter but might change the forecast for next Spring. Finally, there is now less disagreement among meteorological agencies as to when this La Nina will end.

So I am referring to it as a Three-peat but it is not over until it is over. So it may not happen but it looks increasing as if it will.

Daily Report for the next 48 hours or a bit more from July 15, 2022 plus access to Tropical Outlooks and Intermediate-term Outlooks

July 15, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

..Heat to continue across much of the Central and Western States...

..A Fire Weather Threat across portions of the Great Basin and Central
Plains...

..Heavy Rains and isolated Flash Flooding possible along the Central Gulf
Coast into the Southeast, across the Upper Mississippi Valley and from the
Southwest into the Great Basin and Southern Rockies...

14July2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Dow Opened Nearly 600 Points Down Almost Recovering Losses For The Session, Nasdaq Was Barely In The Green, While The S&P 500 Remained In The Red. Initial Jobless Claims Continues To Grow.

July 14, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 143 points or 0.46%,
  • Nasdaq closed flat +0.03%,
  • S&P 500 down 0.30%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 96 flat 0.00%,
  • USD $108.58 up 0.51%,
  • Gold $1710 down 0.05%,
  • Bitcoin $20,656 down 5.04% – Session Low 20,634,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.947% up 0.041%

Today’s Economic Releases:

Unemployment insurance weekly claims 4 week moving average continues to moderately grow.

The Producer Price Index for final demand moved up 11.3 percent for the 12 months ended in June, the largest increase since a record 11.6-percent jump in March 2022.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Are Energy Markets Responsible For Currency Craziness?
  • People are paying more for clothes even as retailers like Walmart and Gap mark down prices to cut inventory
  • Molson Coors to return to the Super Bowl for the first time in more than 30 years
  • Dimon rips Fed stress test as ‘terrible way to run’ financial system after his bank halts buybacks
  • Banks Dump, Bitcoin Pumps, Bullion Slumps As Inflation-Recession Battle Builds
  • Doug Casey On The Ridiculous Policies For Addressing Inflation And Rising Prices

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.