21Nov2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opened Lower, Tried For The Gold Ring And Failed Closing Fractionally In The Red

November 21, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 45 points or 0.13%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.09%,
  • S&P 500 down 0.39%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $80 down $0.34,
  • USD $107.85 up $0.92,
  • Gold $1740 down $13.90,
  • Bitcoin $15,817 down 4.15% – Session Low 15,645,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.825% up 0.009%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Economic Releases:

The SCE Credit Access Survey for October showed that application rates for any kind of credit over the past twelve months declined slightly throughout 2022, with the average application rate standing at 44.8 percent, slightly below its 2021 level of 45.6 percent. While auto loan and mortgage application rates declined in 2022, the rate remained robust for credit cards, reaching 27.1 percent in October, from 26.5 percent in October 2021.  Application rates for mortgage refinancing plummeted during 2022, falling from 21.4 percent in October 2021 to 8.9 percent in October 2022. Looking ahead, the proportion of respondents who reported that they are likely to apply for at least one type of credit over the next twelve months fell from 28.9 percent in October 2021 to 28 percent in October 2022.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index‘s (CFNAI) three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved
down to +0.09 in October from +0.19 in September. The CFNAI-MA3, provides a more consistent
picture of national economic growth. Even with the decline, the national economy is expanding above its historical trend (average) rate of growth. I consider the CFNAI the best indicator in determining the growth and relative strength of the U.S. economy.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Russia Has Lost Over 90% Of Its European Oil Market Share
  • Excessive Debt Will Be Chinas Biggest Challenge
  • Disney board’s decision to replace Bob Chapek with Bob Iger makes everyone look bad
  • Disney shares rise after Iger replaces Chapek as CEO
  • Biden grants PG&E $1.1 billion to keep Diablo Canyon nuclear plant open
  • Silver Demand On Pace For Record Year
  • Goldman Sachs cuts 4Q oil forecast by $10/bbl on China ‘speed bump’
  • The Fed: Fed’s Daly says financial markets are acting like interest rates are much higher than they actually are

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Looking Ahead 28 Days from November 18, 2022 Plus Weekend Report

November 20, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 6:32 pm EST November 21, 2022: There has been a shocking major change in the 6 – 14 Day Outlook. I will review the NOAA discussions to better understand why. There are no discussions issued with the Saturday and Sunday 6- 10 and 8 – 14 day Outlooks but perhaps I should have looked at the maps coming off the printer/plotter. I usually pay more attention to the discussion released on Fridays with the Week 3 – 4  Outlook as I think they do a better job.

During the week, we provide 48-Hour reports which focus on the shorter-term predictions but also have links to all the partial-month outlooks.

Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days 1 and 2, Days  1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. We also include a next-day and 10-Day World Temperature and Precipitation Forecast. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the weekend and the next 28 days. Tomorrow and Monday I will update the article with more recent short-term forecasts.

From the Week 3 -4 Discussion:

Over the equatorial Pacific, La Niña conditions persist, with below normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and reduced tropical convection in all Niño regions. In contrast, convection currently exists over the Maritime Continent associated with the emergence of the MJO into RMM phase 5. Both GEFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts depict the propagation of the MJO through phases 5, 6 and 7 (Maritime Continent to the Western Pacific) over the next two weeks. After this time, the ensemble spread indicates a great deal of uncertainty as to either the continued propagation or the decay of the MJO. Regardless, the tropical convection associated with this active MJO during the two weeks leading up to Week 3-4 will produce upper-level divergence that resides in a favorable location to interact with the subtropical jet exiting southeast Asia. This interaction will produce a source for Rossby waves capable of propagating downstream and impacting surface conditions over CONUS/AK during the Week 3-4 period. Statistically, this sort of propagation is associated with troughing over AK and ridging over CONUS at short leads. However, at Week 3-4 leads the pattern typically reverses with ridging over AK and trouging over CONUS, reminiscent of a negative PNA pattern. Further downstream, a negative NAO is typically observed. Thus, a pattern shift that projects onto the negative phases of both the PNA and NAO is favored to occur near the end of Week 2 or beginning of Week 3. Whether this shift actually occurs and its exact timing are uncertain, which leads to overall low confidence probabilities throughout this Week 3-4 forecast.

I have chosen not to try to explain all the factors that go into this forecast. If anyone is interested post a comment and I will reply to it.

When we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the media and online.

18Nov2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Markets Closed Up After A Sea-Saw Session Crossing The Unchanged Line

November 18, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 199 points or 0.59%,
  • Nasdaq closed flat, up 0.01%,
  • S&P 500 up 0.48%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $80 down $1.38,
  • USD $106.97 up $0.28,
  • Gold $1750 down $12.50,
  • Bitcoin $16,623 down 0.38% – Session Low 16,425,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.823% up 0.05%,
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +3 to 782 Canada +1 to 201

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Economic Releases:

Existing-home sales fell for the ninth straight month in October 2022 decreasing 5.9% month-over-month. Year-over-year, sales was down by 28.4%. The median existing-home price for all housing types in October was $379,100, a gain of 6.6% from October 2021.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • UK Capital Gains Tax Changes Deal Heavy Blow To Investors
  • Gold Demand Picks Up In India
  • EU: Regulations Will Be In Order Before Russian Oil Price Cap Deadline
  • Home sales fell for the ninth straight month in October, as higher mortgage rates scared off potential buyers
  • Qatar to ban beer at World Cup stadiums in dramatic reversal two days before tournament starts
  • Gap beats on third-quarter revenue, but tempers expectations for holiday season
  • Wealthier Shoppers Flocking To Walmart As Inflation Bites

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

NOAA Updates its Four Season Outlook on November 17, 2022 – La Nina Winter then Big Changes

November 18, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

La Nina Winter, then ENSO Neutral and Then Maybe Something Else

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the MId-Month Outlook for the single month of December plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

We will begin to see the end of La Nina Impacts in March/April/May of 2023 and they will pretty much end before June/July/August of 2023, and there will be another change in November/December/January 2023/2024. Why that last change? Could it be an El Nino or ENSO Neutral with an El Nino Bias?

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. NOAA seems to be more confident about making predictions beyond six months. They even predict a good Southwest Monsoon next summer which they never used to do this far in advance.

November 17, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks, Tropical, and World Weather

November 18, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Heavy lake effect snow downwind from the Great Lakes...

...Temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees below average from the Great
Lakes to the Rockies...

...There are Winter Storm Warnings, Winter Weather Advisories, and Lake
Effect Snow Warnings snow downwind from the Great Lakes through the end of
the forecast period...

17Nov2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Main Indexes Close Lower For A Second Day In The Red But Recovered From A Large Down Morning

November 17, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 8 points or 0.02%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.35%,
  • S&P 500 down 0.31%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $82 down $3.67,
  • USD $106.52 down $0.15,
  • Gold $1763 down $12.08,
  • Bitcoin $16,682 up 0.67% – Session Low 16,425,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.773% up 0.079%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Philly Fed Manufacturing survey continued to decline as the index fell from -8.7 in October to -19.4 in November 2022. Although the survey’s future indexes rose slightly, they continued to suggest that the firms expect overall declines in activity and new orders six months from now.

In the week ending November 12, the unemployment insurance weekly claims 4-week moving average was 221,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised average. Weekly claims continue to be low for periods of economic expansion.

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in October 2022 were down 10.1% year-over-year. Privately‐owned housing starts in October were down 8.8% year-over-year.  Privately‐owned housing completions in October were up 6.6% year-over-year. New home construction is one of the early negative impacts of the higher interest rates.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • The Global Energy Transition Has A $22 Trillion Problem
  • Steel Prices Face Further Downward Pressure As Extra Supply Looms
  • Walmart and Target’s quarterly results lay bare the retailers’ stark differences
  • Taylor Swift’s public ticket sale on Friday is canceled, Ticketmaster says. But the secondary market can be ‘buyer beware’
  • GM EV unit BrightDrop expects $1 billion in 2023 revenue, mass production of all-electric delivery vans to start in December
  • Rent growth slows to the lowest level in 18 months
  • What the Autumn Statement means for you and the cost of living

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

November 16, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks, Tropical, and World Weather

November 17, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

 Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Wintry precipitation will continue in northern New England through this
evening as a coastal low tracks northeast...

...Major lake effect snow event downwind of the Great Lakes likely to
begin tonight and continue through the weekend...

...Anomalous cold will continue for most of the CONUS through the end of
the week...

...Strong Santa Ana winds across southern California will relax tonight...

16Nov2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Rally Broken, The Three Major Indexes Close Moderately In The Red

November 16, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 39 points or 0.12%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.54%,
  • S&P 500 down 0.83%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $85 down $1.47,
  • USD $106.52 down $0.15,
  • Gold $1778 up $0.70,
  • Bitcoin $16,575 down 1.36% – Session Low 16,407,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.684% down 0.115%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Economic Releases:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2022 is up 8.3% above October 2021. Once one adjusts for inflation – there is little growth in retail sales (see graph below).

Both import and export prices continued their moderation in October 2022 with imports falling to 4.2% growth year-over-year and exports falling to 6.9% growth year-over-year. Import and export prices do not correlate to economic activity.

Industrial production in October 2022 was up 3.3% year-over-year. The graph below shows industrial production’s year-over-year growth as well as its three components (manufacturing, mining, and utilities):

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • OPEC Ready To Intervene For The Benefit Of Oil Markets
  • Target shares plunge after retailer reports profit decline, warns of soft holiday quarter
  • Lowe’s says it’s not seeing negative impact of inflation as sales, profit top expectations
  • Sharp drop in mortgage rates does little to boost demand
  • Apple Will Source US-Made Chips From Arizona As Supply Chain Rejiggering Accelerates
  • US Retail Sector’s Problems Are Poised To Worsen
  • US stocks open lower on grim sales outlook from Target
  • Futures Movers: U.S. oil prices settle at a 3-week low after missile strike in Poland, as global supply risks ease

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

November 15, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks, Tropical, and World Weather

November 16, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Mixed precipitation expected for inland areas in the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic this afternoon into Wednesday morning...

...Heavy Lake Effect Snow in the Great Lakes region Wednesday and
Thursday, especially downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario...

...Strong Santa Ana winds return today across Southern California...

...Anomalous cold will continue for most of the CONUS through the end of
the week...