EconCurrents

19May2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: S&P 500 Approaches Bear Territory Again, Stagflation Fears Drive Three Major Indexes Into The Red, Markets Sea-Sawed Across Unchanged Line In Today’s Volatile Session

By Gary Hall May 19, 2022marketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

The Dow closed down 0.75% -237 points,
Nasdaq closed down 0.26%,
S&P 500 closed down 0.58%,
WTI crude oil settled at 111.22, up 1.82%,
USD $102.81 down 1.05%,
Gold 1842 down 0.03%,
Bitcoin down 0.13% to $30048,
10-year U.S. Treasury down 0.031% / 2.853%

Today’s Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed’s May 2022 Manufacturing Index remained in expansion but fell to the lowest level in two years.

According to executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc., the rate of job seekers who started their own businesses in the first quarter of 2022 hit the highest rate since the first quarter of 2019.

For week ending 14 May 2022, the 4 week rolling average for initial unemployment claims continues to modestly worsen.

April 2022 existing home sales declined for the third straight month – and down 5.9% from one year ago. Per Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist:

Higher home prices and sharply higher mortgage rates have reduced buyer activity. It looks like more declines are imminent in the upcoming months, and we’ll likely return to the pre-pandemic home sales activity after the remarkable surge over the past two years.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Here’s what Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowe’s tell us about the state of the American consumer
Earth’s oceans have reached the hottest and most acidic levels on record, UN says
Gas prices have now topped $4 in ALL 50 STATES for the first time in history
Gas prices just hit a new record high. Here are a few ways to cut down the cost
Bitcoin, Bonds, & Bullion Jump As Dollar Dumps After Dismal Data
Goldman Is Quietly Handing Out A “Recession Manual” To Clients

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

18May2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Decline Begins Before The Opening Bell And Deepens As Disappointing Retail Results Show Inflation Bitings Into Profits, Global Equities Tanked, Dow Closes Near Session Bottom

By Gary Hall May 18, 2022marketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

The Dow closed down 3.57% +1,165 points,
Nasdaq closed down 4.73%,
S&P 500 closed down 4.04%,
WTI crude oil settled at 109.28, down 3.79%,
USD $103.85 down 0.54%,
Gold 1816 flat 0.00%,
Bitcoin up 0.20% to $29242,
10-year U.S. Treasury down 0.081% / 2.889%

Today’s Economic Releases

The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) increased for the first time since December 2021. The authors of this index believe there is “potential for heightened geopolitical tensions to stoke supply chain pressures in the near term.”

April 2022 new residential construction starts declined according to US Census. However, year-over-year growth improved from last month.

“Many companies are making changes at the top to address rising costs for both business and consumers,” said Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

It should come as no surprise that the NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index declined to the lowest level since the COVID recession.

At the Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, April 2022 imports continue to run at a near record pace (year-over-year) whilst exports declined 7% year-over-year. Generally speaking, a recession is unlikely when imports are in expansion year-over-year.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Gasoline Prices Top $6 In California, $9 In Parts Of Europe
Here’s what Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and Lowe’s tell us about the state of the American consumer
Target shares sink 25% after company says high costs, inventory woes hit profits
Stocks & Bond Yields Crater As The ‘American Consumer Is Strong’ Narrative Implodes
The Fed: Fed will keep raising interest rates until it is ‘confident’ inflation is moving down, Harker says

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

17May2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Rallies In Choppy Trading, Fed Powell Threatens To Continue Raising Rates: ‘Softish’ Economic Landing Possible, Equities Retreat After Feds Comments, But Close Near Session Highs

By Gary Hall May 17, 2022marketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

The Dow closed up 1.34% +431 points,
Nasdaq closed up 2.76%,
S&P 500 closed up 2.02%,
WTI crude oil settled at 112.04, down 1.62%,
USD $103.31 down 0.85%,
Gold 1815 flat 0.00%,
Bitcoin up 0.88% to $30,730,
10-year U.S. Treasury up 0.105% / 2.984%

Today’s Economic Releases

Retail sales continue at blockbuster rates according to US Census data. The April 2022 data shows year-over-year sales increased 6.7%. HOWEVER, when adjusted for inflation (as shown in FRED’s series RRSFS), this is the second month in a row that retail sales have declined year-over-year.

According to the Federal Reserve, April 2022 industrial production data continues to grow following the COVID recession of early 2020.

CoreLogic’s Loan Performance report for February 2022 shows loan delinquencies continued to decline relative to the period one year ago.

“Consumer confidence fell slightly in April, after a modest increase in March,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Steel Demand Is Taking A Beating As China Lockdowns Persist
Walmart shares fall as higher costs, supply chain problems and inventories eat into profits
United Airlines says FAA has cleared 52 Boeing 777s to fly again after they were grounded for engine failure
JPMorgan Sees Gas Prices Hitting $6.20 By August
The Margin: Free rapid at-home COVID tests: You can order a third round from the federal government

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

16May2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Post Mostly Negatively As The Market Struggles To Recover From Multiple Weeks Of Losses, Mixed Market, Dow Slides After China Data Largely Disappoints Investors In Uncertain Session

By Gary Hall May 16, 2022marketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today

The Dow closed up 0.08% +27 points,
Nasdaq closed down 1.20%,
S&P 500 closed down 0.39%,
WTI crude oil settled at 114.87, up 3.72%,
USD $104.22 down 0.32%,
Gold 1826,10 down 0.28%,
Bitcoin down 1.24% to $29,536,
10-year U.S. Treasury down 0.51% / 2.882%

Today’s Economic Releases

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, which measures the manufacturer’s OPINION of business conditions in New York State, returned to negative territory which is normally associated with recessions.

CoreLogic’s Q1 2022 Quarterly Mortgage Fraud Index was little changed compared to Q4 2021 – however fraud risk is up 15% compared to the same quarter one year ago.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Oil Prices Surge Past $113 As Shanghai Signals End Of Lockdown
A severe pilot shortage in the U.S. leaves airlines scrambling for solutions
Inflation is the ‘top problem’ facing America, with no other issue coming close, survey shows
Morgan Stanley Sees S&P Tumbling As Low As 3,400: “That’s Where Valuation And Technical Support Lie”
The Margin: Who is Karine Jean-Pierre, the new White House press secretary making history Monday?

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

An Automatic Application of the Principle of Subsidiarity

By Carmine Gorga May 15, 2022economicsNo Comments

There is much wisdom in the Principle of Subsidiarity. See, e.g., Thomas C. Behr, Social Justice and Subsidiarity. This is a key principle of the social doctrine of the Catholic Church. Concordian economics offers the opportunity for an automatic application of this principle.

JAMSTEC Issues their Seasonal Outlook – May 13, 2022

By Sig Silber May 14, 2022weatherNo Comments

Usually, I compare the JAMSTEC forecast with the NOAA forecast after NOAA Issues its Seasonal Outlook. But this month, JAMSTEC was very early so I thought I would share it with everyone now. NOAA calls their predictions an outlook but JAMSTEC calls their predictions a forecast. I am going to show the JAMSTEC forecasts by month and by season and some of the indices they use in their model. They make world forecasts and for any readers who do not realize it, the U.S. is part of the world so it is covered by a world forecast. Of the two seasons that include our monsoon, I will extract the North American forecast from their world forecast and enlarge it.

I like the JAMSTEC forecast because the U.S. is part of the world and our weather is not independent of the worldwide weather pattern. In fact, most of U.S. weather originates in the Pacific Ocean and the Pacific Ocean is where Japan is located. In fact, Japan and the US jointly manage the monitoring system along the Equator that helps predict the phases of ENSO. So one of the reasons I include worldwide forecasts in articles is to encourage the understanding of worldwide weather patterns. It is not that the U.S. does not cooperate with other nations with respect to weather forecasts as it does. But to view weather forecasts on the Internet or TV you would not easily notice that. The U.S. pays hardly any attention to what other meteorological agencies predict.

For those interested in the U.S., the forecast for the Summer Monsoon and the overall placement of the drought is of interest. We will have the NOAA forecast this Thursday and it will be interesting to see the level of agreement or disagreement.

America: What did the Founding Fathers do, actually?

By Frank Li May 14, 2022opinionNo Comments

They did three big things:

They conducted a revolution (i.e., American Revolution) via a war (American Revolutionary War).
After the war broke out, they published the Declaration of Independence.
After winning the war, they created a republic, by accident!

Let me elaborate on each …

13May2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Closed Higher In A Comeback Rally, But Nasdaq Composite Posts A 2.8% Weekly Drop

By Gary Hall May 13, 2022marketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today

The Dow closed up 1.47% / +466,
Nasdaq closed up 3.82%,
S&P 500 closed up 2.39%,
WTI crude oil settled at 110.30, up 3.45%
USD $104.59 down 0.16%
Gold 1809,03 down 0.36%,
Bitcoin up 3.6% to $29,992,
10-year U.S. Treasury up 0.12% / 2.937%
Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 13/MAY from 557 to 563

Today’s Economic Releases

The Philadelphia Fed’s Second Quarter 2022 Survey of Professional Forecasters now predicts the economic outlook is weaker. 2022 GDP annual growth is now forecast at 2.5% – down from the 3.7% forecast just three months ago.

Median Forecasts for Selected Variables in the Current and Previous Surveys

	REAL GDP (%)		UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)		PAYROLLS (000S/MONTH)
	PREVIOUS	NEW	PREVIOUS	NEW	PREVIOUS	NEW
Annual data (projections are based on annual-average levels):
2022	3.7	2.5	3.7	3.6	430.9	479.7
2023	2.7	2.3	3.4	3.6	197.2	172.7
2024	2.3	2.0	3.6	3.8	N.A.	N.A.
2025	2.3	2.3	3.7	3.8	N.A.	N.A.

These same forecasters now forecast higher inflation. Can you believe that only three months ago – 2022 inflation was forecast the 3.8%?

Median Short-Run and Long-Run Projections for Inflation (Annualized Percentage Points)

	HEADLINE CPI		CORE CPI		HEADLINE PCE		CORE PCE
	PREVIOUS	CURRENT	PREVIOUS	CURRENT	PREVIOUS	CURRENT	PREVIOUS	CURRENT
Quarterly

Q4/Q4 Annual Averages
2022	3.8	6.1	3.6	4.8	3.1	5.0	3.1	4.1
2023	2.4	2.9	2.5	2.9	2.2	2.5	2.2	2.5
2024	2.3	2.3	2.4	2.5	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2

U.S. IMPORT AND EXPORT PRICE INDEXES – APRIL 2022 – Year-over-year inflation moderated from 13.0% to 12.0%.

Student Debt Relief – A Philadelphia Fed Study found “most respondents without education debt preferred no, or relatively limited, cancellation of federal education debt (e.g., $10,000 or less per borrower). In comparison, those with education debt overwhelmingly (86 percent) preferred some debt relief. However, even among this group, there did not appear to be widespread support for canceling most or all education debt. A majority of respondents, with or without education debt, felt that any debt relief provided should be targeted.”

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Oil Prices Climb Despite Demand Destruction Claims
Russia To Halt Electricity Exports To Finland On Saturday
U.S. Rig Count Continues To Rise As WTI Hits $110
Twitter CEO “Expects Deal To Close” After Musk Chaos
Cryptocurrencies melt down in a ‘perfect storm’ of fear and panic
Market Snapshot: Stocks trade sharply higher as S&P 500 fights off bear-market slide; Twitter drops after Musk tweet

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

NOAA Updates the ENSO Forecast on May 12, 2022- Chances of a La Nina Three-peat are 61%

By Sig Silber May 13, 2022weatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e. La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted somewhat from last month. The forecast calls for the La Nina to continue. The timing is shown in the NOAA discussion and the IRI probability analysis. Of importance, the chances of a Triple Dip La Nina are still difficult to predict but seem to be slightly higher than the estimate last month. That would be a real disaster for the Southwest and the West Coast. The NOAA estimate for La Nina lasting into early Winter is 61%. This is a minority opinion in terms of other meteorological agencies almost all of which see La Nina ending sooner.

The impact of the NOAA forecast for the slow or non-existent transition from La Nina to ENSO Neutral will show up next Thursday when NOAA issues its Seasonal Outlook. The NOAA ENSO Status Update provides an advance indication of how the Outlook might change. There is a lag between the ENSO state and the impact on U.S. weather. Thus the exact strength of the La Nina may not be very important in terms of the actual impact on Summer weather including the North American Monsoon (NAM). We may see some changes farther out in the NOAA Outlook that will be issued next Thursday in particular Fall and Winter. Although the chances that this will happen are slightly less this month, the possibility of a Triple Dip should be of considerable concern. It most likely will be reflected in the Outlook issued next Thursday but perhaps not. We will learn more about what NOAA thinks next Thursday.