Weather Forecast: Tonight, Tomorrow, Five Days, 10 Days U.S. and World December 7, 2022

Updated at 6:05 p.m. December 8, 2022 to include the afternoon NWS 48 hour forecast. We will publish again tonight but also we will also publish the ENSO Update.

Here is what we are paying attention to this afternoon and the next 48 hours from Thursday Afternoon’s NWS Forecast. During the week we will publish each evening. On Weekends, we will publish Friday night and do updates during the weekend. Either way, you will have current forecasts with a longer forecast on the weekends. This is a combination of a U.S. plus World Weather Article.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 PM EST Thu Dec 08 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Dec 09 2022 - 00Z Sun Dec 11 2022

...Episodes of moderate to heavy rain expected to track across the
Southern Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley the next couple of days...

...Wintry weather spreading into the Central/Northern Plains today and
into the Upper Midwest on Friday...

...Heavy precipitation expected for the Pacific Northwest and northern
California today before significant mountain snowfall arrives tomorrow...

07Dec2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Ended The Day Little Changed

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 1.58 points or 0.00%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.51%,
  • S&P 500 down 0.19%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $72 down $1.92,
  • USD $105.13 down $0.44,
  • Gold $1800 up $17.50,
  • Bitcoin $16,832 down 0.94% – Session Low 16,755,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.413% down 0.10%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022


Today’s Economic Releases:

3Q2022 nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased 1.3% year-over-year (blue line on the graph below) while labor costs increased 5.3% (red line on the graph below) year-over-year.

As job cuts rise and economic softness looms, the number of seasonal jobs added in Retail has fallen to the lowest level for November since 2008, according to an analysis of non-seasonally adjusted data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) by global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. Retailers added 256,700 jobs in November, according to non-seasonally adjusted data from the BLS, down 26% from the 348,600 jobs added in November last year, and the lowest number of jobs added in the sector for that month since 2008, when 213,600 Retail positions were added. That year, 15,351,700 were employed in Retail companies.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Food Security Has Become A Central Priority For Many Emerging Markets
  • Mining Giant Glencore Sees Huge Deficit In Copper Coming
  • Saudi Arabia Vows To Stick With China As An Energy Partner
  • Southwest Airlines reinstates dividend after nearly three years as travel rebounds
  • Mortgage demand falls again even as rates sink further
  • AOC Under Investigation By House Ethics Committee
  • Futures Movers: U.S. oil prices drop 3%, pressured by China demand uncertainty, rise in domestic product stocks
  • Get ready for a ‘conundrum’ of a respiratory illness season

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Weather Forecast: Tonight, Tomorrow, Five Days, 10 Days U.S. and World December 6, 2022

Updated at 4:37 p.m. EST December 7, 2022

Here is what we are paying attention to this afternoon and the next 48 hours from Wednesday Afternoon’s NWS Forecast. During the week we will publish each evening. On Weekends, we will publish Friday night and do updates during the weekend. Either way, you will have current forecasts with a longer forecast on the weekends. This is a combination of a U.S. plus World Weather Article.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 PM EST Wed Dec 07 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Dec 08 2022 - 00Z Sat Dec 10 2022

...Heavy rain and marginal flash flooding threat across the Central Plains
through Thursday morning...

...Wintry weather spreading into the Central/Northern Plains tonight into
tomorrow...

...Next round of heavy precipitation expected to reach the Pacific
Northwest later tonight before spreading inland and down into California
Thursday night into early Friday...

06Dec2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Slips Again Leaving The Three Major Indexes Down More Than 1% Today

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 351 points or 1.03%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 2.00%,
  • S&P 500 down 1.44%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $74 down $2.52,
  • USD $105.55 up $0.26,
  • Gold $1784 up $2.40,
  • Bitcoin $16,992 up 0.23% – Session Low 16,926,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.519% down 0.08%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022


Today’s Economic Releases:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $78.2 billion in October 2022, up $4.0 billion from $74.1 billion in September, revised. The October increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $6.1 billion to $99.6 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $2.1 billion to $21.4 billion.

Home prices nationwide increased year over year by 10.1% in October 2022 compared with October 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices declined by 0.1% in October 2022 compared with September 2022. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase on a month-over-month basis by 0.0% from October 2022 to November 2022 and on a year-over-year basis by 4.1% from October 2022 to October 2023.

 

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • High Oil Prices Are Fueling Economic Growth In The Middle East
  • Russias Army Is Running Out Of Ammunition
  • Here’s what America’s top CEOs are saying about a possible recession in 2023
  • Boeing’s last 747 is rolling out of the factory after a more than 50-year production run
  • Rising thefts at Walmart could lead to price jumps, store closures, CEO says
  • GM continues to evaluate Twitter’s advertising suspension following Musk’s takeover
  • Goldman, BofA, JPM CEOs Paint Grim Picture Of US Economy, Market In 2023
  • Did Trump Really Call For Termination Of The Constitution?
  • Washington Watch: Here are the politicians who received money from FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Weather Forecast: Tonight, Tomorrow, Five Days, 10 Days U.S. and World December 5, 2022

Updated at 9 p.m. EST December 6, 2022.  It now provides a little glimpse of Tuesday Night and Wednesday.

Here is what we are paying attention to tonight and the next 48 hours from Tuesday Afternoon’s NWS Forecast. During the week we will publish each evening. On Weekends, we will publish Friday night and do updates during the weekend. Either way, you will have current forecasts with a longer forecast on the weekends. This is a combination of a U.S. plus World Weather Article.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EST Tue Dec 06 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Dec 07 2022 - 00Z Fri Dec 09 2022

...Isolated flash flooding possible over the Central Plains later on
Wednesday into Thursday...

...Accumulating snows across the Northern Plains and through portions of
the Northern and Central Rockies...

...Widespread much above average temperatures across the southern and
eastern U.S. in stark contrast with Arctic air across the Northern
Plains...

05Dec2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Equities Opened Lower And Trended Down To Close Near Session Bottom As Economic Soft Landing Hopes Fade

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 483 points or 1.40%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.93%,
  • S&P 500 down 1.79%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 77 down $2.67,
  • USD $105.32 uo $0.78,
  • Gold 1780 down $29.70,
  • Bitcoin $16,945 down 1.45% – Session Low 16,895,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.588% up 0.085%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022


Today’s Economic Releases:

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New orders for manufactured goods in October 2022, up twelve of the last thirteen months, increased by 1.0%, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. In perspective, inflation-adjusted sales (red line on the graph below) – continue in contraction year-over-year.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Gasoline Prices Continue To Plummet In The U.S.
  • Apple Ramps Up Efforts To Move Production Of Out China
  • North Face owner VF Corp. falls 10% after guidance cut, CEO steps down
  • DHL buying Ford E-Transit cargo vans showcases the automaker’s electric vehicle strategy
  • Los Angeles bans oil and gas drilling within city limits
  • Stocks, Bonds, Bullion, & Black Gold Battered As ‘Soft Landing’ Hopes Fade
  • Iranians Skeptical That Morality Police Actually Disbanded After Surprise Announcement
  • FA Center: This little-known but spot-on economic indicator says recession and lower stock prices are all but certain

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Looking Ahead 28 Days from December 2, 2022 Plus Weekend Report

Updated at 4:40 p.m. EST on December 5, 2022

Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days 1 and 2, Days  1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. We also include a next-day and 10-Day Global Average Temperature and Cumulative Precipitation Forecast. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the weekend and the next 28 days. I will update the article with more recent short-term forecasts: Saturday through Monday

We see the expected movement of cold air from west to east of the pattern described in our prior Friday article and perhaps the area impacted shrinking in Weeks 3 and 4. It is quite similar to the overall Outlook predicted when the December Outlook was updated on Wednesday. Precipitation is expansive at first but the southern tier drought pattern gets started in Weeks 3 and 4. We had concerns about the 28-Day Outlook last week and did an experiment where we added the daily updates of the 6 – 10 and 8 – 14 day forecasts each day through Monday. We did not learn too much but I think we are seeing that the forecast last week may have been just a little bit early with its forecast as the flow seems smoother this week. But it may be that they actually nailed it last week. The maps are easy to read. But the maps reflect compromises by the forecasters. They are dealing with conflicting results from their various tools. But they can only produce one map (or that is all they issue). There is a discussion for the 6 – 10 day and 8 – 14 day maps but I do not include them to keep the size of the article reasonable. The links provided would take you to those discussions except on weekends as they are not issued on weekends. I could update those maps on Mondays (like I did last week) but it is a lot of work for me and most readers would not come back on Monday to see the comparison and I am not always available to do an update when NOAA issues their Monday version of the maps with their discussions until later in the day. But the links are there for the curious.

When we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the Media and online. The amount of information about weather provided to the general public is quite limited. It is available to the public. But most do not have the time or level of interest to seek it out. My articles are at an intermediate level between what is generally available from the Media (ten-day forecasts and a good explanation for the first couple of days and the information used by meteorologists to produce these forecasts for general distribution. So I focus on longer timeframes and more depth into why the forecasts are what they are.

02Dec2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Dow Closes Fractionally Higher, S&P 500 And NASDAQ Down Fractionally

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 35 points or 0.10%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.18%,
  • S&P 500 down 0.12%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 80 down $0.98,
  • USD $104.56 down $0.16,
  • Gold $1812 down $2.80,
  • Bitcoin $17,006 up 0.57% – Session Low 16,861,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.492% down 0.035%
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. unchanged at 784 Canada +1 to 195

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022


Today’s Economic Releases:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7% according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The biggest job gains were in leisure and hospitality, health care, and government. Employment declined in retail trade and in transportation and warehousing. The BLS reduced the workforce by 186,000. It was interesting that the household survey reduced the number employed by 138,000 – and contrast that with the establishment survey which produces the headline number growth of 263,000. 263,000 is more than a satisfactory employment growth number but I believe there are warning signs in the data – especially in temporary help which fell 17,200 which is a bellwether number indicating softening of the labor market. The graph below compare the ADP growth numbers (blue line) to today’s BLS numbers (red line). From the graph, one can see the continued moderation of employment growth during 2022.

As pandemic concerns recede to probably their lowest point since lockdowns began in early 2020, companies are ready to celebrate in-person with their teams. According to new survey results from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc., 56.9% of companies report they are having in-person holiday parties this year, up from 26.6% who reported this last year and just 5.3% who held in-person parties in 2020.  Another nearly 2% will hold virtual events this year, down from 7% in 2021 and 17% in 2020. Nearly 6% of companies reported they held in-person gatherings outside, during warm weather this year in lieu of holding year-end celebrations.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Asia Splurges On Record Oil Imports Ahead Of Sanctions On Russia
  • The Environmental Consequence Of Burning Rubber
  • U.S. Oil, Gas Drilling Activity Goes Nowhere
  • Senate approves bill enforcing railroad labor agreement before strike deadline, sends to Biden
  • FCC authorizes SpaceX to begin deploying up to 7,500 next-generation Starlink satellites
  • The Fed Is Not “A Good Idea That Became Corrupt”: It Always Was Corrupt
  • Futures Movers: Oil ends lower for the session, up for the week, ahead of OPEC+ meeting, EU ban on Russian oil
  • Retail and warehousing jobs actually fell in November. It reveals a lot about the typical holiday shopper.

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

01Dec2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Close Mixed As Yesterday’s Euphoria Over Powell’s Speech Wanes

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 193 points or 0.56%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.13%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.08%,
  • Gold $1817 up $57.20,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $81 up $0.81,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.508% down 0.193%,
  • USD index $104.72 down $1.23,
  • Bitcoin $16,913 down $260.80

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022


Today’s Economic Releases:

Small businesses reporting labor quality as their top small business operating problem remains elevated at 21%, according to NFIB’s monthly jobs report. Nine percent of owners reported labor cost as their single most important problem, down one point from October.

U.S.-based employers announced 76,835 cuts in November, a 127% increase from the 33,843 cuts announced in October. It is 417% higher than the 14,875 cuts announced in the same month last year. The bulk of the job cuts were in the tech sector.

Disposable personal income (DPI) increased by 0.7% and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.8%. The PCE price index increased by 0.3%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased by 0.2%. Year-over-year growth shows income is down 4.9% year-over-year (blue line on the graph below whilst expenditures is up 2.1% year-over-year (red line on the graph below).

Construction spending during October 2022 was estimated at 9.2% above the October 2021. Unfortunately, inflation in this sector is significant and the year-over-year growth is -8.7% (see graph below).

In the week ending November 26, the unemployment insurance weekly claims 4-week moving average was 228,750, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 226,750 to 227,000. Claims have stayed relatively stable throughout 2022.

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in November for the first time since May 2020 after 29 consecutive months of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. “The November Manufacturing PMI registered 49%, 1.2 percentage points lower than the 50.2% recorded in October. The Manufacturing PMI figure is the lowest since May 2020.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Oil Prices Could Sink Without Further OPEC+ Action
  • Biden Administration Mulls Complete Revamp Of Biofuels Mandate
  • Scientists Find Two Completely New Minerals On Meteorite
  • Tax ‘refunds may be smaller in 2023,’ warns IRS. Here’s why
  • House approves tentative labor deal to avoid rail strike, sends to Senate
  • Mortgage rates fall for the third straight week, but demand still drops further
  • Jefferies Warns Employees Of Reduced Bonuses As Dealmaking Slows
  • Yield Curve Is Telling Us Next Fed Cutting Cycle Could Be Big

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.