28July2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Stocks rally for a third day to cap a winning week, major averages post best month since 2020, U.S. stocks pick up steam heading toward closing bell, S&P 500 on track for best month since November 2020

July 29, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 316 points or 0.97%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.88%,
  • S&P 500 up 1.42%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $98 up 0.84%,
  • USD $105.96 down 0.23%,
  • Gold $1763 up 1.33%,
  • Bitcoin $23,827 up 0.12% – Session Low 23,485,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.66% down 0.25%
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +9 to 767 Canada +9 to 204

Today’s Economic Releases:

Real personal income decreased whilst real personal expenditures grew in June 2022. In overview, there has been little growth in income or expenditures in 2022.

The Chicago Business Barometer slid further in July 2022, extending June’s decline. The indicator fell 3.9-points to 52.1, the lowest level since August 2020.

Job seekers’ relocating for new jobs fell to the lowest level on record in the second quarter, as employers continue to offer remote and hybrid positions to attract talent, and the economy falls into a possible recession. According to Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.:

When lockdowns took effect in 2020, many workers lost jobs and needed to relocate for new positions, while many others wanted to move or buy property, and sought jobs in their new locations. Others purchased homes or relocated and found remote work. Now, workers want the flexibility of remote work and are seeking jobs that allow them to do it.

The final July 2022 of Michigan Consumer sentiment reading showed little change in consumer sentiment from its historic low in June. The one-year economic outlook fell to its lowest reading since 2009. At the same time, concerns over global factors have eased somewhat.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. Crude Production Sinks In May
  • U.S. Drillers Continue To Add Rigs As Crude Prices Rally
  • Trucking CEOs expect higher prices, potential disruptions in the second half of the year
  • Here are 4 key things to consider if you actually hit the $1.28 billion Mega Millions jackpot
  • Dems Set To Push Bill To Ban Congress From Trading Stock
  • The US enters ‘technical recession’. But why is Dalal Street rallying?
  • Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks pick up steam heading toward the closing bell, S&P 500 on track for best month since November 2020

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

July 29: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

July 29, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Additional rounds of excessive rainfall across parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys are expected to trigger areas of flash flooding
today...

...Daily rounds of heavy downpours could cause flash flooding from Arizona
to the Mid-South region over the next few days...

...Excessive heat continues in the Pacific Northwest; hot and humid across
the Deep South; cool air over the Central Plains expected to shift
eastward...

27July2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Three Main Indexes Closes Higher, 2Q2022 GDP Contracts Again Sparking Recession Fears, 2-Year Treasury Leads Drop In Yields

July 28, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 332 points or 1.03%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.08%,
  • S&P 500 up 1.21%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $97 down 0.98%,
  • USD $106.26 down 0.19%,
  • Gold $1755 uo 0.05%,
  • Bitcoin $23,864 up 5.02% – Session Low 22,644,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.669% down 0.65%

Today’s Economic Releases:

The 4-week-moving average of initial unemployment insurance claims continues growth – and is at its highest level for 2022.

As expected, real gross domestic product (GDP) declined for the second consecutive quarter in 2Q2022. In the past, two consecutive declines were an automatic recession call – but this criteria has been discarded recently. However, it is safe to say the economy is in a strange place with decreases in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment. Still, year-over-year GDP growth is 1.6% which is about average for GDP growth seen since the Great Recession (see graph below). My view is that the 3Q2022 will be stronger as it is no longer being compared to the 12%+ GDP growth seen one year ago.

The Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index remains positive and was little changed in July 2022 – but remains near the lowest levels seen in years.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Gas Levy Could Triple Household Heating Bills In Germany
  • Flash Floods Disrupt Operations At Middle Easts Largest Oil Bunkering Hub
  • JetBlue won the battle for Spirit. Now it has to win over Biden’s Justice Department
  • Comcast shares slide after the cable giant fails to add broadband subscribers for first time ever
  • Best Buy cuts its outlook, joining other retailers as inflation pressures shoppers
  • Ford beats expectations and raises dividends as the company sells more of its top models
  • US economy shrinks again sparking recession fears
  • Bond Report: 2-year Treasury leads drop in yields after GDP contraction fuels expectations Fed will slow rate hikes

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

July 28: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

July 28, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Moderate Risks of Excessive Rainfall are in place with areas of flash
flooding, potentially significant, across the Ohio Valley/Central
Appalachians through the end of the week...

...Monsoonal moisture to cause daily rounds of excessive rainfall and
flash flooding across portions of the Southwest and southern/central High
Plains with Slight to Moderate Risks of excessive rainfall...

...Heat wave to continue in the Pacific Northwest while staying
consistently hotter than normal over the southern Plains but heat is
forecast to increase along the East Coast...

27July2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Fed Hikes Federal Funds Rate By 0.75% As Expected And The Three Major Indexes Close In The Green

July 27, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 436 points or 1.37%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 4.06%,
  • S&P 500 up 2.61%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 98 up 3.07%,
  • USD $106.85 down 0.33%,
  • Gold $1734 down 0.03%,
  • Bitcoin $22,824 up 9.11% – Session Low 20,855,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.787% up 0.02%

Today’s Economic Releases:

Headlines say new orders for manufactured durable goods in June 2022 increased 1.9% – these numbers are not adjusted for inflation. The good news is that inflation-adjusted durable good has been marginally growing as the inflation-adjusted graph below shows.

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC raised the federal funds rate 75 basis points. This is the fourth rate hike in five months. Their statement reads in part:

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

Pending home sales (sales based on contract signings) have now shrunk 20.0% year-over-year. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun says:

Contract signings to buy a home will keep tumbling down as long as mortgage rates keep climbing, as has happened this year to date, There are indications that mortgage rates may be topping or very close to a cyclical high in July. If so, pending contracts should also begin to stabilize.

There was an interesting tidbit in the pending home sales release:

According to NAR, buying a home in June was about 80% more expensive than in June 2019. Nearly a quarter of buyers who purchased a home three years ago would be unable to do so now because they no longer earn the qualifying income to buy a median-priced home today.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Oil Prices Rise Following Fed Rate Hike
  • McDonald’s and Chipotle say customers are trading down, visiting less often as inflation hits budgets
  • Pending home sales fell 20% in June versus a year earlier as mortgage rates soared
  • Mortgage demand declines further, even as interest rates drop a bit
  • A Storm Of Indicators Show The US Consumer Is Tapped Out
  • US makes huge interest rate rise to tame soaring prices

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

July 27: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

July 27, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Moderate Risks of flash flooding are in place with numerous flash
floods likely across the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians over the next
few days...

...Monsoonal moisture to cause daily rounds of excessive rainfall and
flash flooding across portions of the Southwest and southern/central
Rockies and High Plains with Slight to Moderate Risks of excessive
rainfall...

...Dangerous heat to bake the Pacific Northwest and portions of the
south-central U.S. through midweek...

26July2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Dow finishes down over 200 points ahead of Fed rate decision, Nasdaq off 1.9%, Oil Prices Slide, Walmart’s slashed profit outlook

July 26, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 229 points or 0.71%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.87%,
  • S&P 500 down 1.15%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $95 down 1.51%,
  • USD $107.18 up 0.65%,
  • Gold $1716 down 0.186%,
  • Bitcoin $20,828 down 5.52% – Session Low 20,760,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.8% down 0.02%

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index rose from −9 in June to 0 in July 2022.

New residential sales for June 2022 was down 8.1% month-over-month and 17.4% year-over-year. The median and average sales prices continue to increase.

S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Home Price Gain Of 19.7% year-over-year In May 2022. – marginally down from the 20.6% reported for April. CoreLogic Deputy Chief Economist Selma Hepp states:

Signs of slowing home buyer demand are spreading wider across markets. In May, the CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index posted a second month of slowing growth, up 19.7%, but down from 20.6% peak in March and April. Nevertheless, some markets continue to heat up, particularly in Florida, but also Chicago, Boston and New York – marking search for deals in regions that suffered outmigration during the pandemic. Bifurcation in housing markets is also reflected in the ongoing competition for attractive properties that continue to have multiple offers and sell over the asking price, compared to those that are now seeing price reductions and remain unsold. But, given the continued pressure on properties that sell, home price growth is forecasted to remain elevated and in the mid-teens through the end of the year.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence declined again in July 2022. Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board stated:

Consumer confidence fell for a third consecutive month in July. The decrease was driven primarily by a decline in the Present Situation Index—a sign growth has slowed at the start of Q3. The Expectations Index held relatively steady, but remained well below a reading of 80, suggesting recession risks persist. Concerns about inflation—rising gas and food prices, in particular—continued to weigh on consumers. As the Fed raises interest rates to rein in inflation, purchasing intentions for cars, homes, and major appliances all pulled back further in July. Looking ahead, inflation and additional rate hikes are likely to continue posing strong headwinds for consumer spending and economic growth over the next six months.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Oil Prices Slide As IMF Sees Global Economy Teetering On The Brink
  • Russia To Leave ISS As Space Shakeup Continues
  • Walmart’s slashed profit outlook sends a warning about the state of the American consumer
  • General Motors falls short of Wall Street expectations as supply chain challenges dent profit
  • Home price growth slowed for the second straight month in May, S&P Case-Shiller says
  • Stocks, Crypto, & Yield Curve Tumble As ‘Strong Consumer’ Narrative Crushed
  • Market Snapshot: Dow drops nearly 250 points as worries about big tech earnings weigh on stocks

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

July 26: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

July 26, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Excessive heat to continue across portions of the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley into mid-week while a heat wave takes hold of the
Northwest...

...A stormy and wet weather pattern to impact the Middle Mississippi
Valley to the central Appalachians...

...Monsoonal moisture to cause daily rounds of excessive rainfall and
flash flooding across portions of the Southwest and Southern Rockies
through mid-week...

25July2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Ends Choppy Monday Session Mixed, Fed Meeting In Focus As Investors Brace For Likely Interest Rate Hike

July 25, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 91 points or 0.28%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.43%,
  • S&P 500 up 0.13%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $97 up 1.82%,
  • USD $106.45 down 0.11%,
  • Gold $1718 up 1.85%,
  • Bitcoin $21,803 down 4.22% – Session Low 21,606,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.796 unchanged

Today’s Economic Releases:

The three-month moving average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index moved marginally into negative territory in June 2022.  This is not indicative of a recession as the values are explained as follows:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above –0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above –0.35.

The point is that the three-month moving average has to fall to a value of -0.70 [this month the value is -0.04] before a recession occurs. The CFNAI is considered the best coincident indicator of the economy.

The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for July 2022 was largely unchanged at 3.8, a reading well below average but still indicative of growth.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Brent-WTI Spread Widens To Over $8 As U.S. Gasoline Demand Slows
  • OPEC+ Is Now 2.84 Million Bpd Below Its Oil Production Target
  • GM trails far behind Tesla in EV sales — CEO Mary Barra bet the company that will change
  • The Mega Millions jackpot is now $810 million. Here’s how much would go to taxes if there’s a winner
  • Fear prevents workers reporting low pay – report
  • The Fed: Four things you will want to listen for at Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

July 25: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

July 25, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Excessive heat to continue across portions of the Central Plains and
Middle Mississippi Valley through Tuesday while Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
moderate a bit....

...Severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall possible from Middle
Mississippi Valley to Northeast...

...Monsoonal moisture to cause daily rounds of excessive rainfall and
isolated flash flooding across portions of the Southwest and Southern
Rockies through Tuesday...