31Jan2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Main Indexes Shot Upwards And Closed Higher As Fed Meeting Gets Underway

January 31, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 369 points or 1.09%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.67%,
  • S&P 500 up 1.46%,
  • Gold 1944 up $4.60,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 79 up 1.21,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.503% down 0.048,
  • USD $102.07 down $0.20,
  • Bitcoin $22,971 up $183.84 – Session Low 22,631

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in January following an upwardly revised increase in December 2022. The Index now stands at 107.1 (1985=100), down from 109.0 in December (an upward revision). The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell to 77.8 (1985=100) from 83.4 partially reversing its December gain. The Expectations Index is below 80 which often signals a recession within the next year. Both present situation and expectations indexes were revised up slightly in December. Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics at The Conference Board stated:

Consumer confidence declined in January, but it remains above the level seen last July, lowest in 2022. Consumer confidence fell the most for households earning less than $15,000 and for households aged under 35.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 7.7% annual gain in November, down from 9.2% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.3%, down from 8.0% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 6.8% year-over-year gain, down from 8.6% in the previous month. CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp stated:

Housing market conditions deteriorated considerably at the end of 2022 as mortgage rates hit a 20-year high in November,  wiping out a considerable portion of homebuyers purchase power. As a result, the November CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index continued to cool off posting a 7.7% year-over-year increase, marking the seventh straight month of slowing home price growth and the slowest increase since September 2020.

San Francisco was first to post an annual decline with prices down about 2% year-over-year. At the same time, pandemic boomtowns, such as Phoenix, Las Vegas and Seattle are now experiencing the largest waning in price growth from last year, while home prices in cities in the Northeast and Midwest such as New York and Boston, Chicago and Detroit, are more resilient given a lesser upswing in price growth seen in those areas during the pandemic.

The Chicago Business Barometer moderated by -0.8 points to 44.3 in January; the fifth consecutive month below 50. This follows a December rebound to signal a softer downturn. This barometer is used by pundits to predict the national ISM manufacturing levels.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • BP Taps Deep Gas Reservoirs In Azerbaijan’s Caspian Sea
  • China’s Low Aluminum Production Worsens Supply Chain Challenges
  • Russian Oil Companies Told To Comply With Ban On Oil, Oil Product Exports
  • Traders Turn Bullish On Oil As Majors Report Earnings
  • Russia’s Pipeline Gas Exports To Europe Slump To Record Low
  • General Motors doesn’t expect significant U.S. production of EVs until the second half of the year
  • Dow closes more than 350 points higher, S&P 500 caps best January in four years
  • PayPal to lay off 2,000 employees in coming weeks, about 7% of the workforce
  • Market Extra: Coinbase stock poised to record the best month in history. Can the rally continue?

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

February 2023 Economic Forecast: Most Data Shows Little Indication That A Recession Is Coming

January 31, 2023Posted ineconomy, macroeconomicsNo Comments

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index improved this month but continues to show weak growth. There is a general economic weakness across the board EXCEPT in the area of government and employment. However, except for industrial production (and possibly retail sales) – the data is showing few signs that a recession is coming. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, for the U.S. and the World with links for longer-term forecasts: posted January 31, 2023

January 31, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:03 p.m. Tuesday, January 31, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. This article also includes World weather forecasts.

It also includes links for longer-term outlooks and sometimes (like today) we show the maps that one finds if one clicks on those links. But we can not update all of those maps each day so look at the date and the duration of the period of time involved. If you want a more up-to-date map, click on the provided link which may be located in a table of links. If the date in the title of the article is not today’s date. just go to Econcurrents.com and look for today’s weather article.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Feb 01 2023 – 00Z Fri Feb 03 2023

…Prolonged and significant ice storm to continue impacting a large area
from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley…

…Heavy rain and scattered flash floods possible across parts of the Deep
South and Southeast midweek…

…Unseasonably cold temperatures continue for portions of the South, with
another surge of arctic air for the Northern Tier Thursday…

30Jan2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Main Indexes Opened Lower, Trended Lower And Closed Near Session Lows

January 30, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 261 points or 0.77%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.96%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 1.30%,
  • Gold $1922 down $7.40,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $78 down $1.89,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.55% up 0.032 points,
  • USD $102.27 up $0.34,
  • Bitcoin $22,749 down $962.37 – Session Low 22,652

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for January 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey slowed in January. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell from 9.1 to 0.2, with the near-zero reading suggestive of flat output. Other measures generally indicated weakened manufacturing activity this month. The new orders index was negative for an eighth month in a row—suggesting a continued decrease in demand—though it moved up from -11.0 to -4.0. The growth rate of orders index inched down to -12.3. The capacity utilization index was positive but dipped from 7.9 to 6.0, while the shipments index returned to negative territory at a reading of -6.3. Most other Fed regional manufacturing surveys have shown to be in contraction or minimal growth.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Energy Industry Leaders Call For Social Tariff To Tackle Winter Crisis
  • OPEC+ Closely Watches Chinese Factory Data
  • Ford Slashes Electric Vehicle Prices
  • Why Middle East Producers Cut Prices In The Face Of Soaring Chinese Oil Demand
  • Texas Oil And Gas Industry Braces For Severe Winter Weather
  • Stocks close lower, Dow sheds more than 250 points to snap six-day win streak
  • If January is the barometer it historically has been, stocks could see a very strong year
  • Bitcoin drops after weekend rally, and DOJ claims SBF tried to influence witness: CNBC Crypto World
  • US Halts New Licenses For Export To Huawei
  • The Absurdity Of Elon Musk’s Fraud Trial
  • Crypto: Fed rejects crypto bank’s application to join U.S. payment system

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, for the U.S. and the World with links for longer-term forecasts: posted January 30, 2023

January 30, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:25 p.m. Monday, January 30, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. This article also includes World weather forecasts.

It also includes links for longer-term outlooks and sometimes (like today) we show the maps that one finds if one clicks on those links. But we can not update all of those maps each day so look at the date and the duration of the period of time involved. If you want a more up-to-date map, click on the provided link which may be located in a table of links. If the date in the title of the article is not today’s date. just go to Econcurrents.com and look for today’s weather article.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Jan 31 2023 – 00Z Thu Feb 02 2023

…Prolonged and potentially significant icing event to impact a large
area from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley…

…Frigid temperatures over the central and western United States to begin
moderating early this week…

…Heavy rain and scattered flash floods possible across eastern Texas and
the lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday…

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, for the U.S. and the World with links for longer-term forecasts: posted January 29, 2023

January 29, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:02 p.m. Sunday January 29, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. This article also includes World weather forecasts.

It also includes links for longer-term outlooks and sometimes (like today) we show the maps that one finds if one clicks on those links. But we can not update all of those maps each day so look at the date and the duration of the period of time involved. If you want a more up-to-date map, click on the provided link which may be located in a table of links. If the date in the title of the article is not today’s date. just go to Econcurrents.com and look for today’s weather article.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 PM EST Sun Jan 29 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Jan 30 2023 – 00Z Wed Feb 01 2023

…Areas of rain/freezing rain over parts of the Southern Plains to the
Ohio Valley…

…Snow over parts of the Central Rockies to the Great Basin/Southwest and
California; lake-effect snow downwind from the Great Lakes and Upslope
snow over parts of the Central Appalachians…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Gulf Coast into the Southeast…

…Temperatures will be 15 to 35 degrees below average over parts of the
Northern Rockies/Great Basin to the Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley…

Economics and Hoarding

January 28, 2023Posted ineconomicsNo Comments

Since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, there have been headlines such as Europe banks hoarding ECB cash, threatening credit crunch (2012), Banks across Europe are considering taking a drastic step to avoid negative rates (2016), and Bank of America Clients Hoard Cash at Highest Level in Two Decades (2022).  This first became a problem in the US during the Dot.com Crash (2001) and the GFC – and then shifted to Europe. After all this time, we in America might have a more dispassionate view of the issue.  But the third reference above shows the problem of hoarding money persists.

 Where is economic theory about hoarding? Hoarding is nowhere to be seen in mainstream economics. Herein we discuss why.


Image credit: Pixabay, Public Domain.

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, for the U.S. and the World with links for longer-term forecasts: posted January 28, 2023

January 28, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 6:30 p.m. EST Saturday, January 28, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. This article also includes World weather forecasts.

It also includes links for longer-term outlooks and sometimes (like today) we show the maps that one finds if one clicks on those links. But we can not update all of those maps each day so look at the date and the duration of the period of time involved. If you want a more up-to-date map, click on the provided link which may be located in a table of links. If the date in the title of the article is not today’s date. just go to Econcurrents.com and look for today’s weather article.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 PM EST Sat Jan 28 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Jan 29 2023 – 00Z Tue Jan 31 2023

…Heavy snow over parts of the Great Lakes…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Gulf Coast into the Southeast…

…Pockets of rain/freezing rain over parts of the Southern Plains to the
Great Lakes…

…Temperatures will be 15 to 35 degrees below average over parts of the
Northern/Central Rockies and High Plains…

27Jan2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Major Indexes Experience Steep Sell-Off In Last Fifteen Minutes, But Closed Moderately Higher

January 27, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 29 points or 0.08%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.95%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.25%,
  • Gold $1929 down $1.10,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $79 down $1.62,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.52% up 0.029 points,
  • USD $101.96 up $0.12,
  • Bitcoin $23,125 down $14.65 – Session Low 22,638
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. unchanged at 771 Canada +6 to 247

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for January 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

Personal income increased $49.5 billion, or 0.2% at a monthly rate, while consumer spending decreased $41.6 billion, or 0.2%, in December 2022. The increase in personal income primarily reflected increases in compensation and proprietors’ income. However, we prefer to view consumption and expenditures as inflation-adjusted year-over-year change to dampen the volatility – real disposable income (blue line on the graph below) improved to -1.7% year-over-year growth (from last month’s -2.3% and real personal consumption expenditures (red line on the graph below) growth improved to 2.2% year-over-year (from last month’s 1.7%). The personal saving rate (that is, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income) was 3.4% in December, compared with 2.9% in November.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* — a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings — improved 2.5% to 76.9 in December. Year-over-year, pending transactions dropped by 33.8% (see chart below). An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. Improved in this case means “not as bad as the previous month”.  NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated:

This recent low point in home sales activity is likely over. Mortgage rates are the dominant factor driving home sales, and recent declines in rates are clearly helping to stabilize the market.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Is The The Global Steel Industry In For Another Bumpy Year?
  • U.S. House Passes Bill To Limit SPR Withdrawals
  • Bed Bath & Beyond defaults on credit line, warns it can’t pay down debts
  • Audi’s new EV is a luxury SUV with augmented reality that doubles as a pickup
  • American Airlines beats fourth-quarter profit expectations as higher fares buoy revenue
  • The Fair Tax Act, explained: what to know about the Republican plan for a national sales tax, decentralized IRS
  • Bond Report: Treasury yields climb Friday, 10-year posts biggest weekly yield jump in a month while inflation cools
  • Market Snapshot: Tech-heavy Nasdaq climbs sharply, U.S. stocks rise as investors parse inflation data ahead of Fed meeting next week

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, for the U.S. and the World with links for longer-term forecasts: posted January 27, 2023

January 27, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:12 p.m. EST Friday, January 27, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. This article also includes World weather forecasts.

It also includes links for longer-term outlooks and sometimes we show the maps that one finds if one clicks on those links. But we can not update all of those maps each day so look at the date and the duration of the period of time involved. If you want a more up-to-date map, click on the provided link which may be located in a table of links. If the date in the title of the article is not today’s date. just go to Econcurrents.com and look for today’s weather article.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Jan 28 2023 – 00Z Mon Jan 30 2023

…Heavy snow impacting the northern Rockies and northern High Plains to
spread into parts of the central Plains and Midwest tonight…

…Arctic air surging southward into the central United States this
weekend to produce potentially dangerous wind chills…

…Instances of heavy rain and flash flooding possible throughout the Gulf
Coast and Southeast on Sunday…