July 27: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

July 27, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Moderate Risks of flash flooding are in place with numerous flash
floods likely across the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians over the next
few days...

...Monsoonal moisture to cause daily rounds of excessive rainfall and
flash flooding across portions of the Southwest and southern/central
Rockies and High Plains with Slight to Moderate Risks of excessive
rainfall...

...Dangerous heat to bake the Pacific Northwest and portions of the
south-central U.S. through midweek...

26July2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Dow finishes down over 200 points ahead of Fed rate decision, Nasdaq off 1.9%, Oil Prices Slide, Walmart’s slashed profit outlook

July 26, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 229 points or 0.71%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.87%,
  • S&P 500 down 1.15%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $95 down 1.51%,
  • USD $107.18 up 0.65%,
  • Gold $1716 down 0.186%,
  • Bitcoin $20,828 down 5.52% – Session Low 20,760,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.8% down 0.02%

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index rose from −9 in June to 0 in July 2022.

New residential sales for June 2022 was down 8.1% month-over-month and 17.4% year-over-year. The median and average sales prices continue to increase.

S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Home Price Gain Of 19.7% year-over-year In May 2022. – marginally down from the 20.6% reported for April. CoreLogic Deputy Chief Economist Selma Hepp states:

Signs of slowing home buyer demand are spreading wider across markets. In May, the CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index posted a second month of slowing growth, up 19.7%, but down from 20.6% peak in March and April. Nevertheless, some markets continue to heat up, particularly in Florida, but also Chicago, Boston and New York – marking search for deals in regions that suffered outmigration during the pandemic. Bifurcation in housing markets is also reflected in the ongoing competition for attractive properties that continue to have multiple offers and sell over the asking price, compared to those that are now seeing price reductions and remain unsold. But, given the continued pressure on properties that sell, home price growth is forecasted to remain elevated and in the mid-teens through the end of the year.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence declined again in July 2022. Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board stated:

Consumer confidence fell for a third consecutive month in July. The decrease was driven primarily by a decline in the Present Situation Index—a sign growth has slowed at the start of Q3. The Expectations Index held relatively steady, but remained well below a reading of 80, suggesting recession risks persist. Concerns about inflation—rising gas and food prices, in particular—continued to weigh on consumers. As the Fed raises interest rates to rein in inflation, purchasing intentions for cars, homes, and major appliances all pulled back further in July. Looking ahead, inflation and additional rate hikes are likely to continue posing strong headwinds for consumer spending and economic growth over the next six months.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Oil Prices Slide As IMF Sees Global Economy Teetering On The Brink
  • Russia To Leave ISS As Space Shakeup Continues
  • Walmart’s slashed profit outlook sends a warning about the state of the American consumer
  • General Motors falls short of Wall Street expectations as supply chain challenges dent profit
  • Home price growth slowed for the second straight month in May, S&P Case-Shiller says
  • Stocks, Crypto, & Yield Curve Tumble As ‘Strong Consumer’ Narrative Crushed
  • Market Snapshot: Dow drops nearly 250 points as worries about big tech earnings weigh on stocks

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

July 26: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

July 26, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Excessive heat to continue across portions of the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley into mid-week while a heat wave takes hold of the
Northwest...

...A stormy and wet weather pattern to impact the Middle Mississippi
Valley to the central Appalachians...

...Monsoonal moisture to cause daily rounds of excessive rainfall and
flash flooding across portions of the Southwest and Southern Rockies
through mid-week...

25July2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Ends Choppy Monday Session Mixed, Fed Meeting In Focus As Investors Brace For Likely Interest Rate Hike

July 25, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 91 points or 0.28%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.43%,
  • S&P 500 up 0.13%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $97 up 1.82%,
  • USD $106.45 down 0.11%,
  • Gold $1718 up 1.85%,
  • Bitcoin $21,803 down 4.22% – Session Low 21,606,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.796 unchanged

Today’s Economic Releases:

The three-month moving average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index moved marginally into negative territory in June 2022.  This is not indicative of a recession as the values are explained as follows:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above –0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above –0.35.

The point is that the three-month moving average has to fall to a value of -0.70 [this month the value is -0.04] before a recession occurs. The CFNAI is considered the best coincident indicator of the economy.

The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for July 2022 was largely unchanged at 3.8, a reading well below average but still indicative of growth.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Brent-WTI Spread Widens To Over $8 As U.S. Gasoline Demand Slows
  • OPEC+ Is Now 2.84 Million Bpd Below Its Oil Production Target
  • GM trails far behind Tesla in EV sales — CEO Mary Barra bet the company that will change
  • The Mega Millions jackpot is now $810 million. Here’s how much would go to taxes if there’s a winner
  • Fear prevents workers reporting low pay – report
  • The Fed: Four things you will want to listen for at Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

July 25: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

July 25, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Excessive heat to continue across portions of the Central Plains and
Middle Mississippi Valley through Tuesday while Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
moderate a bit....

...Severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall possible from Middle
Mississippi Valley to Northeast...

...Monsoonal moisture to cause daily rounds of excessive rainfall and
isolated flash flooding across portions of the Southwest and Southern
Rockies through Tuesday...

July 24: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

July 24, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Record breaking heat wave continues from Mid-South to Northeast this
weekend....

...Severe thunderstorms capable of producing flash flooding to spread from
Midwest today and tomorrow to Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Monday...

...Monsoonal moisture to gradually bring locally heavy rains and isolated
flash flooding across portions of the Southwest into the Southern Rockies
through Monday...

Friday Looking Ahead 28 Days July 22, 2022

July 23, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

First half of 28-Day Forecast Period is wetter than the second half. But it is hot throughout the 28-Day Forecast Period.

NOAA updates many of their weather outlooks and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. On Fridays, they issue a week 3 – 4 outlook which is farther out than the typical 10-day forecast and the discussion is excellent. So we have decided to issue a weekly special report on Fridays.

When the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued, we have a 28-day view of the future. It is important to recognize that the predictions do not always work out as predicted but in the article, there are links to obtain updated predictions.

It is somewhat surprising that there is as much difference between the first 14 days and the second 14 days of the 28-Day Forecast Period.  The North American Monsoon is strong throughout the 28-Day Forecast Period. It is stronger at the beginning and slowly returns towards what is a normal Monsoon.  Heat will be a hazard.

July 23: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

July 23, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Searing heat wave to engulf much of the Heartland, Mid-South, and
Northeast Coast this weekend....

...Enhanced Risk for severe storms in the Midwest on Saturday...

...Monsoonal moisture to gradually bring locally heavy rains and isolated
flash flooding across portions of the Southwest into the Southern Rockies
this weekend...

...Critical Fire Weather Risk in eastern Idaho today...

22July2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Closed Lower. Weak Business Surveys Darken Outlook.

July 22, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 137 points or -0.43%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.87%,
  • S&P 500 down 0.93%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $95 down 1.6%,
  • USD $106.57 down 0.32%,
  • Gold $1723 up 0.6%,
  • Bitcoin $22,725 down 1.8%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.5% unchanged,
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +2 to 758 Canada +4 to 195

Today’s Economic Releases:

This morning’s reported financials were anything but reassuring. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash JUL Fell To 52.3 From 52.7 – this was the weakest level in two years. S&P Global Composite PMI Flash JUL Fell To 47.5 From 52.3 – the rate of decline was the sharpest since the initial stages of the pandemic in May 2020. S&P Global Services PMI Flash JUL Fell To 47 From 52.7 – this was the weakest level in two years.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. Oil Rig Count Unchanged As WTI Slumps Below $100
  • Verizon shares fall after company cuts full-year forecast
  • Airlines were too ambitious chasing the travel rebound. Now they’re scaling back
  • Convenience store chain 7-Eleven cuts 880 corporate jobs as part of restructuring
  • Volkswagen CEO Forced Out After Clashes With Union Bosses
  • “It All Adds Up To One Word: Pain”: Traders Forced To Chase Gamma Higher As Stocks Refuse To Drop Despite Dire News And Data
  • Powell seen slowing Fed hikes after 75 basis points next week
  • Top Ten: Weekend reads: Prepare for a big week — a crucial Federal Reserve decision, tech-company earnings and a GDP report

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

NOAA Issues Four-Season Outlook on July 21, 2022

July 22, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Preparing to Say Goodbye to La Nina, but Not Quite Yet

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of August plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

The three-month period Jan/Feb/Mar next year seems to be when the overall precipitation situation improves but for some reason the temperature situation does not and may be worse for several months along parts of the Southern Tier. You can take La Nina out of the forecast, but the warming trend continues. For many parts of CONUS, 2023 will be better than 2022. At least that is what NOAA is predicting right now.