13September 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Waterfalls For Worst Day Of 2022 After Hot Inflation Data. Odds Of 100bps Fed Rate Hike to 47%.

September 13, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 1,276 points or 3.94%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 5.16%,
  • S&P 500 down 4.32%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 88 down 1.48% for the week,
  • USD $109.82 weakening 1.52%,
  • Gold $1713 down 1.59%,
  • Bitcoin $20,298 down 9.50% – Session Low 20,104,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.27% little changed

Today’s Economic Releases:

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 1.9 points in August to 91.8, marking the eighth consecutive month below the 48-year average of 98 but reversing some of the declines in the first half of the year. Per NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg:

The small business economy is still recovering from the pandemic while inflation continues to be a serious problem for owners across the nation. Owners are managing the rising costs of utilities, fuel, labor, supplies, materials, rent, and inventory to protect their earnings. The worker shortage is impacting small business productivity as owners raise compensation to attract better workers.

The CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights report shows overall mortgage delinquencies and foreclosure rates remained near two-decade lows in June 2022, with home price growth that remains in double digits and a strong U.S. job market helping to keep mortgage performance healthy. Overall mortgage delinquencies and foreclosure rates remained near two-decade lows.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) over the last 12 months was 8.3% – modestly down from the 8.5% posted last month. Shelter, food, and medical care indexes were the largest of many contributors applying upward pressure. These increases were offset by a 10.6-percent decline in the gasoline index. The bottom line is that the core index (removing food and energy) actually increased (red line on the graph below). Note that this extremely modest decline in the CPI keeps the door open for the Federal Reserve to continue to significantly boost the federal funds rate to fight inflation.

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Child poverty, calculated by the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM), fell to its lowest recorded level in 2021, declining 46% from 9.7% in 2020 to 5.2% in 2021, according to U.S. Census Bureau data released today.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:
  • Oil Prices Inch Lower On Hot Inflation Data
  • Cyberattacks Are A Major Risk For The Worlds Largest Oil Company
  • NBA suspends Suns owner Robert Sarver for a year over workplace harassment, use of racial slurs
  • Why Toyota – the world’s largest automaker – isn’t all-in on electric vehicles
  • Half Of U.S. Workers Are “Quiet Quitters”
  • Fed Mouthpiece Speaks: “At LEAST 75bps Next Week” Sends Odds Of 100bps Rate Hike to 47%
  • Market Snapshot: Dow down 1,000 points as losses accelerate, stocks face worst session since mid-June

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

September 13, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 13, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over Southwest and a
second area over the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday
morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from parts of the Great
Basin/Southwest from Tuesday into Wednesday morning...

12Sep2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Good Day For The Markets. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Has Been Drawn Down To The Lowest Since September 1984.

September 12, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 230 points or 0.71%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.27%,
  • S&P 500 up 1.06%,
  • Gold $1737 up $7.8,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $88 up $1.13,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.354%  little changed,
  • USD index $108.32 strengthened 0.63%,
  • Bitcoin $22,378 up 2.72%,

Today’s Economic Releases:

The CoreLogic National Fraud Risk Index saw a decrease year-over-year, however recent trends indicate fraud risk is back on the rise. The decline is partially due to the recalibration of our scoring model in the first quarter of 2022. However, higher risks were recorded during months in the second quarter, particularly for certain types of mortgage fraud.

On Friday, the Federal Reserve released their Z.1 Financial Accounts which shows a drop in household networth of 4.1% in 2Q2022 (not inflation adjusted – the the decline mostly due to the stock market). Our Joe Six Pack Index which is modeled on the average American who owns a house (and little more) shows that Joe’s financial health actually improved if one ignores inflation (and declined if you decide inflation is an important element of net worth) – red line on graph below.

The federal budget deficit was $944 billion in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2022 (that is, from October 2021 through August 2022), the Congressional Budget Office estimates—$1.8 trillion less than it was at the same point last year.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the August 2022 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations continued to decline across all horizons.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:
  • China’s Economic Stumbles Weigh On Metal Prices
  • Fitch Ratings: EU Will Not Get More Pipeline Gas from Russia Until Year End
  • Holiday airfare will be most expensive in 5 years as pandemic fears wane
  • Biden Withdraws Record Amount Of Crude From ‘Strategic Midterm Reserve’

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

September 12, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 12, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over Upper Great Lakes,
Mid-Atlantic, and Eastern Gulf Coast through Monday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from parts of the Upper
Great Lakes and a second area over the northern Mid-Atlantic from Monday
into Tuesday morning...

NOAA Updates its ENSO Analysis on September 8, 2022 – La Nina will probably end soon.

September 11, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted slightly from last month. The IRI analysis suggests it could be slightly later than it appeared last month. Also, the probability that it will extend into the winter is much higher. So what I anticipated as being a three-peat looks to be a reality. But in theory, things could change.

Nevertheless, that is what both NOAA and I think will happen. But it could happen a bit earlier or a bit later.

I provided a small sample of model runs by a number of different meteorological agencies that is  presented by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and they suggest that maybe we will be in ENSO Neutral in January or February rather than March as NOAA seems to be thinking. NOAA is placing more weight on the statistical rather than dynamic models but statistics requires data and there have not been a lot of similar situations but what data there is suggests March is more likely than January or February. But perhaps this La Nina will continue beyond March. Maybe it will continue for a fourth year.

September 11, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 11, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over Southern California,
Nevada, and Arizona through Sunday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from parts of the Eastern
Gulf Coast and a second area over the Central Appalachians/southern
Mid-Atlantic through Sunday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper
Great Lakes, a second area over the Mid-Atlantic, and a third over Eastern
Gulf Coast from Sunday into Monday morning...

...Elevated fire weather over parts of the Pacific Northwest...

September 9, 2022 Looking Ahead 28 Days Plus our usual 48-hour report.

September 10, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

After the first week, there is a change in the pattern with more moisture in the Northern Tier and more heat first in the Great Plains and then drifting to the East. The anomalies in the second half of the 28-day period moderate.

NOAA updates many of its weather outlooks daily or even more frequently and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. We provide a daily report which focuses on the shorter-term predictions but has links to all the partial-month outlooks. One of the reports issued by NOAA only gets updated on Fridays and since this covers weeks 3 and 4 it is very important. The discussion that gets issued with this week 3-4 NOAA report is often where possible changes to the weather pattern are first identified.

So we have decided to issue a special report on Fridays (which most will read on Saturday) in which for a subset of the information, we show the actual forecast maps not just provide the links. This makes it easier for the reader. We will also include at the end of the article the other information from the daily article

When the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued on Friday, we have a 28-day view of the future. It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts.  This is important because it appears that changes are happening and the current view of the next 28 days differs substantially from the Monthly Outlook issued just a few days ago.

The regular 48-hour forecast article is included in this article and follows the 28-Day Analysis.

This week we also show the state rankings for August and compare them to the state rankings year to date (YTD).

09Sep2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Week Ends On A High Note For The Markets

September 9, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 377 points or 1.19%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 2.11%,
  • S&P 500 up 1.53%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $86 down 3.21%,
  • USD index $109.99 down 0.65%,
  • Gold $1727 up 0.4%,
  • Bitcoin $21,249 up 9.98%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.317% little changed

Today’s Economic Releases:

Total Average Equity Per Homeowner Hits a Record High of $300,000 in Q2 per CoreLogic. Homeowners with mortgages gained a collective $3.6 trillion year over year in the second quarter of 2022. The following graph shows the average equity gain by state.

July 2022 sales of merchant wholesalers were down 1.4% from last month but was up 15.3% from July 2021. As the numbers are not inflation adjusted, the inventory-to-sales ratio YoY change is the best way to look at the data – and this data shows that the inventory is modestly shrinking with respect to sales which somewhat indicates a modestly growing economy (see graph below).

A summary of headlines we are reading today:
  • Magnetic Breakthrough Could Help Save Electricity
  • EU Energy Ministers Divided On Russian Natural Gas Price Cap
  • Oil Rig Count Slides In Tough Week For Crude
  • Burger King unveils $400 million plan to revive U.S. sales with investments in renovations and advertising
  • GM is betting on its electric Equinox, starting at $30,000, to kick-start ‘massive adoption’ of EVs
  • “Yellen Was Massively Blind” – RH CEO Routs ‘Slow & Wrong’ Policymakers For Making Things Worse
  • Greece Informs Allies Of Ukraine-Style War Looming With Turkey

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

September 9, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 9, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 1 pm EDT on September 9, 2022  to reflect updated information on now Tropical Storm Kay

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Hazardous weather associated with Hurricane Kay to begin entering
southern California and parts of the Desert Southwest on Friday...

...Dangerous heat continues throughout central and northern California
through the end of the week, with well above average temperatures building
into the Pacific Northwest by the weekend...

...Powerful cold front will usher in much below-average temperatures for
the Intermountain West, Plains and Midwest this weekend...

...Unsettled weather and flash flood chances forecast over parts of the
Southeast and eastern Gulf Coast..

08Sep2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Close Up And So Does Consumer Credit

September 8, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 193 points or 0.61%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.6%,
  • S&P 500 up 0.66%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $83 up 0.85%,
  • USD index $109.63 down 0.19%,
  • Gold $1718 down 0.51%,
  • Bitcoin $19,402 up 0.56%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.317% little changed

Today’s Economic Releases:

The 2022 Wildfire Risk Report was issued by CoreLogic showing that the wildfire risk landscape is evolving. With the U.S. population increasing and residential development extending farther from metro areas, more homes and businesses will face the threat of wildfires. Read the report [here].

In the week ending September 3, the 4 week moving average was 233,000, a decrease of 7,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The initial unemployment claims is suggesting the economy is modestly improving.

In July 2022, the Federal Reserve says consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.2%. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 11.6%, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 4.4%. There is no question consumer credit is increasing but it is being driven by by revolving credit (mostly credit cards) – and my prefered view using YoY analysis shows total credit is increasing 7.7%, revolving credit 14.9%, and non-revolving credit 5.7%. Unfortunately, much of the increase in credit is being caused by:

  • inflation forcing many families to resort to credit cards to meet their daily needs., and
  • goods and services inflation is running over 8%, and one would expect credit to expand at the same rate as inflation.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:
  • Putin’s Energy Weapon Is Backfiring
  • How Will China’s New $44 Billion Stimulus Impact Steel Prices?
  • UK Puts A Cap On Household Energy Bills
  • GM is betting on its electric Equinox, starting at $30,000, to kick-start ‘massive adoption’ of EVs
  • Moviegoing won’t return to pre-pandemic levels, says former Disney CEO Bob Iger
  • Queen Elizabeth II: A life in pictures
  • United Airlines raises bet on electric air taxis with 200 aircraft from upstart Eve

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.