16Aug2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets End Session Mixed. Drought Adding To Inflation In Europe And China.

August 16, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 239 points or 0.71%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.19%,
  • S&P 500 up 0.19%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $86 down 3.29%,
  • USD $106.47 down 0.07%,
  • Gold $1790 down 0.42%,
  • Bitcoin $23,930 down 0.70%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.815% unchanged

Today’s Economic Releases:

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in July 2022 were down 1.3% month over-month and 1.1% year-over-year. Housing starts were down 9.6% month-over-month and is 8.1year-over-year. Housing completions were up 1.1% year-over-year and up 3.5% year-over-year. Although the numbers are slowing, they are still above pre-pandemic levels.

In July 2022 industrial production increased 0.6% month-over-month with manufacturing up 0.7%; mining increased 0.7%; and utilities decreased 0.8%. On a year-over-year basis industrial production was up 3.9% wth manufacturing up 3.2%, mining up 7.9%, and utilities up 2.2%. Capacity utilization is up 1.3% year-over-year.

CoreLogic shows that in June 2022, single-family rent prices remained elevated, up 13.4% from one year earlier, but have continued to relax compared to growth seen earlier this year. This deceleration could be partially due to worries over an impending economic slowdown. June also saw trends shift away from pandemic-era preferences as attached rentals growth (13.2%) slightly outpaced detached rentals price growth (12.8%). Molly Boesel, principal economist at CoreLogic stated:

While the annual growth in single-family rents is nearly double that of a year ago and is still near a record level, price growth began decelerating in June. Nationwide, both year-over-year and month-over-month growth were slower in June than they were earlies year, and roughly half of the largest U.S. metro areas experienced a slowdown in annual growth in June.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Nuclear And Hydropower Falter As Droughts Grip Europe
  • Hydropower In China Struggles Amid Worst Heatwave In Decades
  • WTI Crude Falls To Lowest Level Since January
  • Homebuyers are backing out of more deals as high mortgage rates persist and recession fears linger
  • Walmart CEO Doug McMillon says even wealthier families are penny-pinching
  • Inflation drives fastest fall in real pay on record

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

August 16, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 16, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Monsoonal showers and storms will keep a slight risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of the central Rockies to the Four Corners region for
the next couple of days...

...A low pressure wave will likely bring heavy to excessive rainfall
across the mid to lower Mississippi Valley through Wednesday...

...A tropical low pressure system could bring additional heavy downpours
up the Rio Grande Valley into southwestern Texas through tonight into
Tuesday...

...A slight risk of severe thunderstorms is forecast for parts of the
Mid-Atlantic through this evening...

...Heat Advisories remain in effect for parts of the southern Plains/lower
Mississippi Valley into this evening as heat intensifies over the interior
West Coast over the next couple of days...

...A coastal storm could impact parts of New England later on Wednesday...

15 August 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opened Lower On China’s Growth Worries, Then Rises To Close Moderately Higher, Crude Prices Fall After Weaker Than Expected China Data

August 15, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 151 points or 0.45%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.62%,
  • S&P 500 up 0.40%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $89 down 3.25%,
  • USD $106.53 up 0.82%,
  • Gold $1778 down 0.45%,
  • Bitcoin $23,996 down 1.24% – Session Low 23,937,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.802% down 0.047%

Today’s Economic Releases:

Business activity declined sharply in the August 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index plummeted forty-two points to -31.3. This is definitely a sign of a slowing economy, but one terrible month of data does not a recession make.

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A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • What Does Chinas Dismal Economic Report Mean For Commodities?
  • Walmart strikes exclusive streaming deal to give Paramount+ to Walmart+ subscribers
  • Stores and suppliers clash over price hikes as shoppers hit by sticker shock
  • Homebuilders say the U.S. is in a ‘housing recession’ as sentiment turns negative
  • Investors flock to green energy funds as Congress passes climate bill. What to know as assets reach ‘new territory’
  • U.S. freight shipping rates have likely peaked, according to new Cass Freight Index data, in another sign that inflation is easing
  • The “Big Short” Michael Burry Liquidates Entire Portfolio, Holds Just One Stock At End Of Q2
  • Futures Movers: Oil settles with a 3% loss as China growth worries dominate

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

August 15, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 15, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Monsoonal moisture to continues an excessive rain threat across much of
the Southwest into the Rockies...

...Heavy to locally excessive rain also likely across parts of south Texas
into Monday and parts of the Plains/Mississippi Valley Monday-Tuesday...

...Anomalous heat to continue across the central/southern Plains with heat
also building across the interior West...

August 14, 2022 Looking Ahead 28 Days Plus a Review of State Temperature and Precipitation Rankings

August 14, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Northern Tier from Great Lakes West Predicted to be Hot and Dry

NOAA updates many of their weather outlooks and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. On Fridays, they issue a week 3 – 4 outlook which is farther out than the typical 10-day forecast and the discussion is excellent. So we have decided to issue a weekly special report on Fridays.

When the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued, we have a 28-day view of the future. It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts. Since we are publishing this article on Sunday we only have a 26-day view of the future. Sorry about that.

We have also taken a look at the state temperature and precipitation rankings for July and Year to Date (YTD). It is not a surprise that they differ. We provided that information in a recent article but thought it useful to repeat it here for those who did not happen to read the other article. There is value in relating the future outlook to the prior month and to the YTD.

August 14, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 14, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Heavy to excessive rainfall likely across much of the
Southwest/Intermountain West, as well as across south Texas...

...Much above normal temperatures likely this weekend across the central
Plains, with a warming trend for parts of the West...

NOAA Updates its ENSO Analysis on August 11, 2022 – La Nina will probably end soon (my opinion)

August 13, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted slightly from last month. The forecast had called for the La Nina to continue but weaken during the Summer (which it did not). Then it is forecast to strengthen in the Fall and Winter. The timing is shown in the NOAA discussion and the IRI probability analysis.

It certainly looks like this La Nina will end early in 2023. But there is really no sound scientific basis for this prediction.  From Emily Beckers’s post

If La Niña does decay to neutral in January–March 2023, it would be only the 4th time in the 24 La Niña winters we have on record.

Nevertheless, that is what both NOAA and I think will happen. But it could happen a bit earlier or a bit later.

August 13, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 13, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Monsoonal moisture to increase the threat for localized heavy rainfall
and flash flooding across parts of the Southwest and Intermountain West...

...Tropical moisture likely to bring heavy rainfall to parts of south
Texas this weekend...

...Much above normal temperatures expected from the northern High Plains
to the central Plains...

12 August 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street’s Three Main Indexes Gapped Upwards At The Opening Bell And Skyrocketed To Close At Session Highs As Best Buy And Others Cut Jobs

August 12, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 424 points or 1.27%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 2.09%,
  • S&P 500 up 1.73%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $92 down 2.53%,
  • USD $105.64 up 0.52%,
  • Gold $1801 down 0.05%,
  • Bitcoin $24,165 up 0.17% – Session Low 23,654,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.838% down 0.05%
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -1 to 763 Canada -2 to 201

Today’s Economic Releases:

Following along the path of the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index, Import and Export Price growth slowed in July 2022. U.S. import prices moderated from 10.7% year-over-year to 8.8%. Export prices moderated from 18.1% year-over-year to 13.1%. Import prices are what affect the average consumer but there is no correlation between import price inflation and economic growth.

The U.S. economy looks weaker now than it did three months ago, according to 35 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Median Forecasts for Selected Variables in the Current and Previous Surveys

REAL GDP (%) UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%) PAYROLLS (000S/MONTH)
PREVIOUS NEW PREVIOUS NEW PREVIOUS NEW
Quarterly data:
2022:Q3 2.5 1.4 3.5 3.5 293.7 342.5
2022:Q4 2.3 1.2 3.5 3.7 193.2 167.9
2023:Q1 2.1 1.1 3.5 3.8 158.8 89.0
2023:Q2 2.3 1.5 3.5 3.9 61.3 96.6
2023:Q3 N.A. 1.5 N.A. 4.0 N.A. 80.7

Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment moved up very slightly this month to about 5 index points above the all-time low reached in June. All components of the expectations index improved this month, particularly among low and middle-income consumers for whom inflation is particularly salient.

Preliminary Results for August 2022
Aug Jul Aug M-M Y-Y
2022 2022 2021 Change Change
Index of Consumer Sentiment 55.1 51.5 70.3 +7.0% -21.6%
Current Economic Conditions 55.5 58.1 78.5 -4.5% -29.3%
Index of Consumer Expectations 54.9 47.3 65.1 +16.1% -15.7%

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Oil Prices Fall As Demand Concerns Persist
  • Gulf Of Mexico Pipelines Could Restart Today
  • Even airline employees are having trouble finding a seat home from Europe this summer
  • Best Buy cuts jobs across the country, after warning of slower sales
  • Texas Joins 18 States To Oppose Blackrock’s Woke Agenda
  • Pension Funds Suffer Worst Year Since 2009
  • Market Extra: Stock buybacks near $800 billion this year after hitting all-time record
  • Bond Report: Treasury yields end higher for a second straight week after U.S. consumer-sentiment data

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

August 12, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 12, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Monsoonal storms and the potential for flooding to continue for
portions of the Southwest into the Great Basin and Rockies...

...Showers and thunderstorms leading to heavy rainfall expected along the
immediate Gulf Coast through the early weekend...

...Below-average temperatures and drier air behind an advancing cold front
will lead to a comfortable weekend in the Eastern region...