Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, for the U.S. and the World with links for longer-term forecasts: posted February 5, 2023

February 5, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:01 p.m. EST Saturday, February 5, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. This article also includes World weather forecasts.

It also includes links for longer-term outlooks and sometimes (like today) we show the maps that one finds if one clicks on those links. But we can not update all of those maps each day so look at the date and the duration of the period of time involved. If you want a more up-to-date map, click on the provided link which may be located in a table of links. If the date in the title of the article is not today’s date. just go to Econcurrents.com and look for today’s weather article.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 PM EST Sun Feb 05 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Feb 06 2023 – 00Z Wed Feb 08 2023

…Precipitation chances continue in the West as multiple storm systems
move through the region…

…Above average temperatures east of the Rockies to start the week; an
Elevated Risk of Fire Weather for the Southern High Plains Monday…

…Heavy rain with the chance for some scattered instances of flash
flooding for the Southern Plains late Tuesday…

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, for the U.S. and the World with links for longer-term forecasts: posted February 4, 2023

February 4, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 9:40 p.m. EST Saturday, February 4, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. This article also includes World weather forecasts.

It also includes links for longer-term outlooks and sometimes (like today) we show the maps that one finds if one clicks on those links. But we can not update all of those maps each day so look at the date and the duration of the period of time involved. If you want a more up-to-date map, click on the provided link which may be located in a table of links. If the date in the title of the article is not today’s date. just go to Econcurrents.com and look for today’s weather article.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
239 PM EST Sat Feb 04 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Feb 05 2023 – 00Z Tue Feb 07 2023

…Frontal system moving through the West brings increased chances of
lower elevation/coastal rain and moderate to heavy mountain snow…

…Rapid warm up Sunday for the Northeast after record-breaking arctic
blast…

…Unseasonably warm temperatures for the Plains and Midwest with an
Elevated Risk for Fire Weather in the Southern High Plains Sunday…

03 Feb2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Closes Deeply In The Red After Jobs Report

February 3, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 128 points or 0.38%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.59%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 1.04%,
  • Gold $1879 closed down $52.20,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $73 down $2.67,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.536% up 0.138 points,
  • USD $102.97 up $1.22,
  • Bitcoin $23,368 down $125 – Session Low $23,257
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -12 to 759 Canada +2 to 249

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 517,000 in January 2023, and the unemployment rate declined from 3.5% to 3.4%. Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. Employment also increased in government, partially reflecting the return of workers from a strike. The household survey showed employment growth at 894,000 vs the establishment headline number of 517,000. The household survey increased the size of the workforce by 866,000. Interestingly, the all-in unemployment rate (U-6) worsened from 6.5% to 6.6%. This employment data is considered very good and suggests that the economy is not near a recession and that the Federal Reserve has a long way to go to cool inflation (as employment growth generally fans inflation). Wall Street does not want the federal funds rate to continue to increase to fight inflation, and the employment data shows that the rate will likely keep increasing in the foreseeable future.

Just a reminder that the above employment data are seasonally adjusted. Januarys historically have negative job growth due to the layoffs of seasonal jobs – as shown in the below NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED graph. The layoffs this January 2023 were less than normal causing the seasonally adjusted headline number to grow.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Oil Prices Crash After Perky Jobs Data
  • U.S. Drilling Activity Continues To Slow
  • Oil Prices Under Pressure Despite Looming Fuel Embargo
  • Here’s where the jobs are for January 2023 — in one chart
  • Amazon stock hit hardest after tech earnings bonanza, despite misses by Apple and Alphabet
  • Morgan Stanley’s Shalett advises investors to beware this bear market rally
  • Stockman: What Inflation Would Look Like In A True Free-Market Economy
  • New York NatGas Prices Erupt To 20-Year High Ahead Of Polar Vortex
  • The Fed: ‘Wow,” Fed’s Daly says after killer jobs report, but it doesn’t alter Fed’s inflation-fighting plan

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, for the U.S. and the World with links for longer-term forecasts: posted February 3, 2023

February 3, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:33 p.m. EST Friday, February 3, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. This article also includes World weather forecasts.

It also includes links for longer-term outlooks and sometimes (like today) we show the maps that one finds if one clicks on those links. But we can not update all of those maps each day so look at the date and the duration of the period of time involved. If you want a more up-to-date map, click on the provided link which may be located in a table of links. If the date in the title of the article is not today’s date. just go to Econcurrents.com and look for today’s weather article.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 PM EST Fri Feb 03 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Feb 04 2023 – 00Z Mon Feb 06 2023

…A brief intense surge of arctic air expected across the Northeast
through Saturday followed by rapid moderation in temperatures on Sunday…

…Unsettled weather moving into the West Coast with heavy snow reaching
the Sierra Nevada Saturday night…

02 Feb2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Dow Closed Down While The Small Caps Closed Significantly Higher

February 2, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 39 points or 0.11%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 3.25%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.47%,
  • Gold $1927 down $15.40,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $76 down $0.56,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.398% up 0.002 points,
  • USD $103.73 up $0.51,
  • Bitcoin $23,847 up $19.90 – Session Low 23,519

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

According to NFIB’s monthly jobs report, 57% of owners reported hiring or trying to hire in January 2023, up two points. Of those hiring or trying to hire, 91% of owners reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. Twenty-seven percent of owners reported few qualified applicants for their open positions and 25% reported none. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

The labor shortage continues to be a major concern for small businesses in the New Year as nearly all owners trying to hire are reporting no or few qualified applicants. Small businesses’ sales opportunities are limited because of the staffing shortage but owners continue to make changes in business operations to compensate.

U.S.-based employers announced 102,943 cuts in January 2023, a 136% increase from the 43,651 cuts announced in December. It is 440% higher than the 19,064 cuts announced in the same month in 2022. Last month’s total is the highest January total since 2009 when 241,749 were announced in the first month of the year. It is the highest monthly total since September 2020 when 118,804 job cuts were reported.

The headline nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 3.0% in the fourth quarter of 2022 as output increased 3.5% and hours worked increased 0.5%. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) HOWEVER, from the same quarter a year ago, nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased by 1.5% reflecting a 0.8-percent increase in output and a 2.3% increase in hours worked. Annual average productivity decreased by 1.3% from 2021 to 2022. This is the largest annual decline in the measure since 1974 when productivity decreased by 1.7%.

In the week ending January 28, the advance figure for initial unemployment insurance claims 4-week moving average was 191,750, a decrease of 5,750 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 197,500.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • The U.S. Solar Boom Is Still Facing Some Major Roadblocks
  • Global Battery Demand Is Soaring, But Supply Is Lagging Behind
  • U.S. Oil Is Replacing Russian Crude In EU Markets
  • Morgan Stanley: Expect More EV Price Cuts Ahead
  • S&P 500 advances more than 1% to its best level in five months as Meta leads tech-fueled rally
  • Mortgage rates drop to the 5% range for the first time since September
  • Mortgage rates drop to the 5% range for the first time since September
  • Market Snapshot: Nasdaq surges to a five-month high as Meta leads rally in tech sector

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, for the U.S. and the World with links for longer-term forecasts: posted February 2, 2023

February 2, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 6:42 p.m. Thursday, February 2, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. This article also includes World weather forecasts.

It also includes links for longer-term outlooks and sometimes (like today) we show the maps that one finds if one clicks on those links. But we can not update all of those maps each day so look at the date and the duration of the period of time involved. If you want a more up-to-date map, click on the provided link which may be located in a table of links. If the date in the title of the article is not today’s date. just go to Econcurrents.com and look for today’s weather article.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 PM EST Thu Feb 02 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Feb 03 2023 – 00Z Sun Feb 05 2023

…Bitter cold and dangerous wind chills to stretch from the Northern
Plains to the Northeast Friday into Saturday…

…Seasonably mild conditions return to the center of the country entering
the weekend after a chilly week…

…Periods of heavy snow return to the Sierra and Cascades late this week
into the weekend…

01 Feb2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Dow Closed Flat, NASDAQ And The S&P 500 Made Nice Gains After Fed Minutes

February 1, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 7 points or 0.02%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 2.00%,
  • S&P 500 up 1.05%,
  • Gold $1968 up $22.50,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $77 down $1.91,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.413% down 0.114 points,
  • USD $101.17 down $0.93,
  • Bitcoin $23,741 up $750.42 – Session Low 22,853

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

The ADP National Employment Report shows employers created 106,000 jobs in January 2023 and annual pay was up 7.3% year-over-year. 106,000 is a very weak number but ADP said that weather-related disruptions on employment during their reference week likely negatively impacted the gains this month – significantly impacting business with 1 to 19 employees.

Construction spending during December 2022 was 7.7% above December 2021. However, when construction spending is inflation adjusted, it is DOWN 9.2% year-over-year. Construction is paying the price for the Fed’s inflation-fighting increase of the federal funds rate – and is a drag on the economy.

The January 2023 Manufacturing PMI registered 47.4%, 1 percentage point lower than the seasonally adjusted 48.4% recorded in December. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a second month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. The Manufacturing PMI figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered a seasonally adjusted 43.5%. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 42.5%, 2.6 percentage points lower than the seasonally adjusted figure of 45.1% recorded in December. The Production Index reading of 48% is a 0.6-percentage point decrease compared to December’s seasonally adjusted figure of 48.6%. Yes, manufacturing is currently a drag on the economy.

graph source: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_pmi

The number of job openings increased to 11.0 million on the last business day of December 2022. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 6.2 million and 5.9 million, respectively. This is a sign of continued strength in employment. The graph below shows that the number of job openings (red line) continue to far exceed the number of jobs being added (blue line).

The Fed FOMC meeting statement hiked the federal funds rate by 25bps as fully expected to a range of 4.5%-4.75%..

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Germany’s Largest Gas Storage Facility Can’t Store Gas
  • U.S. Manufacturing PMI Hits Lowest Since May 2020
  • Nuclear Power Is Entering A New Era
  • Space Politics: A Battle For Lunar Minerals Is Unfolding
  • Oil Prices Inch Lower After EIA Confirms Crude Build
  • Goldman: The Fed Is Approaching A “Critical Inflection Point”
  • Full recap of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike and Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference
  • S&P 500 closes higher on Wednesday, Nasdaq adds 2% as investors look past Fed’s rate hike
  • FedEx is laying off 10% of its officers and directors amid cooling demand
  • Here’s what the Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point interest rate hike means for your money
  • Stocks, Bonds, & Gold Soar As Powell Shrugs Off Loosening Financial Conditions
  • The Fed: Fed lifts interest rates by a quarter percentage point and signals ‘ongoing increases’

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Let us get some political terms right!

Let us get some political terms right!

February 1, 2023Posted inopinionNo Comments

America has become so polarized that everything is political. The country is so confused that everything is subject to debate. To facilitate American political discourses, let me clearly define the following basic political terms:

  • Republic.
  • Democracy.
  • Autocracy.
  • Socialism vs. capitalism.
  • Communism vs. colonialism.

Let me elaborate them one by one.

NOAA Updates it’s February 2023 Outlook on January 31, 2023

February 1, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 11:45 p.m. EST February 11 to update the wildfire potential maps that should have been updated early in the month.

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is February of 2023. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for February and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We highlighted some of the important changes within the NOAA Discussion. We also provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for February for comparison.  Although we remain in weak La Nina conditions, other facts now play a large and perhaps a larger role in the outlook for February.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for February. We have also included the current fire incidents (not many) and four months of Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks and also a map showing the year-to-date snowpack in the West. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, for the U.S. and the World with links for longer-term forecasts: posted February 1, 2023

February 1, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:54 p.m. Wednesday, February 1, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. This article also includes World weather forecasts.

It also includes links for longer-term outlooks and sometimes (like today) we show the maps that one finds if one clicks on those links. But we can not update all of those maps each day so look at the date and the duration of the period of time involved. If you want a more up-to-date map, click on the provided link which may be located in a table of links. If the date in the title of the article is not today’s date. just go to Econcurrents.com and look for today’s weather article.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 PM EST Wed Feb 01 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Feb 02 2023 – 00Z Sat Feb 04 2023

…Prolonged and significant ice storm continues across much of the
southern Plains and Mid-South…

…Heavy rain and scattered flash floods possible across parts of the Deep
South and Southeast on Thursday…

…Bitter cold and dangerous wind chills to enter the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest on Thursday before sweeping into the Northeast by Friday…