25 April 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opened Lower, Continued To Trend Lower Finally Closing At Session Bottom as earnings, recession worries weigh

April 25, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 345 points or 1.02%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.98%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 1.58%,
  • Gold $2,009 up $8.20,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $77 down $1.67,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.392% down 0.123 points,
  • USD $101.86 up $0.520,
  • Bitcoin $27,634 up $248,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell in April to 101.3, down from 104.0 in March. This is the lowest reading since July 2022. The decline was driven by a darkening outlook that augers a recession beginning in the near future. The decline in consumer confidence was widespread, with all major demographic groups reporting lower readings in April. The biggest declines were among consumers under 55 years of age and for households earning $50,000 and over. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring consumer confidence and other economic indicators. The decline was driven by a number of factors, including:

The Fifth District Manufacturing Report for April 2023 showed that manufacturing activity continued to contract in April. The headline index fell to -10 from -5 in March, and two of its three component indexes — shipments and new orders — declined.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 2.0% annual gain in February, down from 3.7% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 0.4%, down from 2.5% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 0.4% year-over-year gain, down from 2.6% in the previous month. Miami, Tampa, and Atlanta again reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in February.

The U.S. Census Bureau reported that sales of new single-family houses in the United States increased 9.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 683,000 in March 2023. This is 3.4% below the March 2022 estimate of 707,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2023 was $449,800. The average sales price was $562,400. The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March 2023 was 432,000. This represents a supply of 7.6 months at the current sales rate.

 

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • More Banking Trouble Pushes Oil Prices Down Another 2%
  • Nigeria Completes Gas Pipeline Without Chinese Funds
  • Credit Suisse Reports Alarming Magnitude Of Losses And Outflows
  • Halliburton Earnings Beat Estimates In Tight Oilfield Services Market
  • U.S. Net Debt To Exceed 110% By 2028 As Decarbonization Costs Mount
  • First Republic falls nearly 50% to a record low after reporting a massive deposit drop
  • Stocks close lower Tuesday as investors’ bank fears return, Dow sheds more than 300 points: Live updates
  • Alphabet earnings are out — here are the numbers
  • Japanese ispace moon landing attempt falls short at ‘very end,’ CEO says
  • Market Extra: What’s next for the stock market as small-cap index suffers its first ‘death cross’ since January 2022
  • Movers & Shakers: First Republic stock tanks, UPS shares weaken, Spotify shares advance, and more stocks on the move

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 25, 2023

April 25, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 7;20 p.m. EDT Tuesday April 25, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Apr 26 2023 – 00Z Fri Apr 28 2023

…Heavy rain, isolated flash flooding and severe weather possible across
portions of the Central/Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley…

…Heavy wet snow expected to develop over the Colorado Rockies and into
portions of the Front Range tonight…

…Below average temperatures for large portions of the nation to the east
of the Rockies, while above average temperatures expand across the West…

…Elevated to Critical Fire weather conditions to persist across the
southern Rockies to southern High Plains; Slight Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms for central Florida…

24 April 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Today’s Session Began In The Green And Ended Mixed Ahead Of Earnings Reporting

April 24, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 66 points or 0.20%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.29%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.09%,
  • Gold $1,999 up $8.40,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $79 up $0.88,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.509% down 0.063 points,
  • USD $101.71 down $0.047,
  • Bitcoin $27,380 down $52,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three-month moving average (MA3) for March 2023 was +0.01, up from -0.09 in February. This suggests that economic growth improved in the first quarter of 2023. Note that the CFNAI MA3 is a lagging indicator, meaning that it reflects economic activity that occurred in the past. The labor market remained strong, with job growth continuing at a healthy pace. Overall, the CFNAI MA3 suggests that the economy is growing, at a faster pace than in the fourth quarter of 2022.

The April 2023 Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey suggests that manufacturing activity in Texas slowed in April. The survey’s broad indicators for future activity suggest that respondents’ expectations for growth over the next six months remain subdued. The production index edged down to 0.9 in April, from 2.5 in March. The new orders index was negative for the 11th month in a row, falling to -9.6 in April from -14.3 in March.

Tomorrow morning, Tuesday, April 25, S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller will be issuing its National Home Price Index for February. Selma Hepp, the CoreLogic chief economist, shared the following statement on factors influencing the present housing market:

While lower mortgage rates helped entice some potential homebuyers off the sidelines this year, the U.S. housing market continues to face many headwinds, including pessimistic consumer sentiments, fears around recent banking turmoil, the lack of a seasonal spring home supply uptick and continued mortgage rate volatility. Nevertheless, the typical spring demand rush and the continued lack of homes for sale lifted prices in February, following seven months of monthly declines.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Top 10 Countries With Largest Oil Reserves
  • Worries About Weaker Dollar Fuel Demand For Gold
  • Oil Prices Rebound After Testing Monthly Lows
  • Russia To Boost Natural Gas Exports To China By 50%
  • Bed Bath & Beyond vows it can pull off a sale – here’s what that means for shareholders
  • Nasdaq closes lower Monday as investors prepare for Big Tech earnings: Live updates
  • Earnings playbook: Your guide to a busy week of earnings, featuring Meta and Amazon
  • Bitcoin sinks to $27,000, and Gemini expands outside U.S. amid crypto crackdown: CNBC Crypto World
  • Brett Arends’s ROI: What was Tucker Carlson worth to Fox News? About $650 million, according to Wall Street.
  • Don Lemon fired by CNN after 17 years with the news network
  • Market Snapshot: Stocks struggle for direction ahead of tech-earnings onslaught

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 24, 2023

April 24, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:21 p.m. April 24, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Apr 25 2023 – 00Z Thu Apr 27 2023

…Below average temperatures for large portions of the nation to the east
of the Rockies, while above average temperatures expand across the West…

…Heavy rains, isolated flash flooding and severe weather possible across
portions of the Central to Southern Plains…

…Elevated to Critical Fire weather conditions to persist across the
Southern High Plains…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 23, 2023

April 23, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:48 p.m. EDT Sunday April 23, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Apr 24 2023 – 00Z Wed Apr 26 2023

…March-like temperatures to engulf much of the eastern two-thirds of the
Lower 48, additional frosts/freezes expected; warmer in the Southwest..

…Damp and dreary conditions to linger in New England tonight-Monday;
more showers and storms to develop in the South Central U.S….

…Mountain snow and coastal/valley showers reaching the Pacific Northwest
will continue to spread into the northern and central Rockies…

Government Spending and Inflation. Part 10

April 23, 2023Posted inmacroeconomicsNo Comments

Previous work has shown that the correlation between US federal government deficit spending and CPI inflation fluctuates widely and wildly over time.  Results vary depending on data sample selection.  That leads to the present decision to look specifically at each instance of inflation, disinflation, and deflation.


Credit:  From a photo by Sam on Unsplash

Two Multi-seasonal Weather Outlooks: NOAA and JAMSTEC April 22, 2023

April 22, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Some additional light editing at 5:03 p.m  EDT Sunday April 23, 2023 to explain a difference in the way the two agencies present information.

Here we present two multi-season weather outlooks.
NOAA provides such an outlook for the U.S. every month and JAMSTEC does so for the World. Their world outlook of course includes the U.S.  I used to compare the two. The reader can do this themselves.

The JAMSTEC forecast is of interest partly because both Japan and the US.  have weather that is mostly based on the Pacific Ocean.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 22, 2023

April 21, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Apr 23 2023 – 00Z Tue Apr 25 2023

…Showers and storms with locally heavy rain linger in New England
Sunday-Monday…

…Areas of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms continue Sunday across
southern Texas…

…Frost/Freeze expected across portions of the Central Plains into the
Midwest Sunday morning…

…Mountain snow and coastal/valley showers will spread from the Pacific
Northwest Sunday into the Rockies Monday…

21 April 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Opened Moderately Lower And After A Choppy Session Closed Fractionally Higher In The Green

April 21, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 22 points or 0.07%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.11%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.09%,
  • Gold $1,993 down $25.90,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $0.42,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.568% up 0.023 points,
  • USD $101.71 down $0.13,
  • Bitcoin $27,238 down $928,
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +5 to 753 Canada -6 to 105

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Composite Flash (a composite index of the manufacturing and services sectors) registered 53.5 in April 2023, up from 52.3 in the previous month, to signal the quickest upturn in business activity since May 2022. The faster rise in activity was broad-based, with the services activity growth hitting a 12-month high and manufacturing output expanding modestly but at the fastest rate since May 2022. New orders at US firms increased at the sharpest rate for 11 months, despite a continued decline in new export orders, amid new client wins, improved customer confidence and successful marketing strategies. In addition, employment growth was the quickest since last July, while backlogs of work increased for the second month running as companies mentioned further struggles finding suitable candidates and retaining staff amid rising wage costs. This is a data point that argues against a coming recession.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • EU Introduces New Tax To Push For Global Carbon Pricing
  • Oilfield Services Company Schlumberger Beats Q1 Expectations
  • Oil, Gas Drilling Activity In The U.S. Perks Up
  • Chile Plans To Nationalize Lithium Extraction Industry
  • Oil Prices Plunge As Bearish Sentiment Builds
  • Economic Fears Put Oil Prices Under Pressure
  • Stocks end Friday’s session little changed, Dow snaps 4-week win streak: Live updates
  • A recession is coming — and stock markets won’t come through it unscathed, strategist says
  • Ether drops to $1,900, and PitchBook research reveals ChatGPT’s impact on crypto: CNBC Crypto World
  • “Brace” – JPMorgan Warns Debt-Ceiling Showdown Means “Non-Trivial Chance Of A Technical Default” On US Treasuries

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates it’s Four-Season Outlook on April 20, 2023 – The Southwest Monsoon is expected to be less productive than usual. An El Nino Winter is Expected

April 21, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the single month of May plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. It is best to read the full discussion but here are some of the highlights:

  • ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring, followed by a 62% chance of El Niño developing during May-July 2023. An El Niño Watch has been issued, and the range of possibilities toward the end of the year includes a strong El Niño (4 in 10 chance of Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.5°C) to no El Niño (1 in 10 chance)
  • The combination of elevated snowpack and high soil moisture across much of the West coupled with below normal SSTs currently observed in the Gulf of California and the Pacific off the west Coast of the Baja California Peninsula would favor a slower evolution of monsoonal circulation.
  • El Niño is expected to become more of a factor and the pattern begins to increasingly reflect El Niño conditions during the cold months. As a result, enhanced probabilities of above normal temperatures indicated for the Southern CONUS late summer/early fall are reduced by the winter. Conversely, chances of above normal temperatures increase across the Northern Tier by the winter months.
  • As we enter the fall and winter months, the pattern begins to increasingly reflect an El Niño signature. Increased probabilities for above normal precipitation depicted across the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys during late summer and early fall transitions to the East and Gulf Coasts during the winter months, consistent with El Niño. Conversely, an increasingly dry signal is evident across the northwestern CONUS by the winter with probabilities of below normal precipitation exceeding 40 percent across the Pacific Northwest from November-December-January (NDJ) 2023-24 through JFM 2024. A tilt toward below normal precipitation is also indicated for the Great Lakes Region westward toward the Northern Plains during the cold months, consistent with El Niño.