America’s evil MIC!
America’s MIC (Military-Industrial Complex) is the #1 existential threat not only to America, but also to the world. So, it is time to dismantle it, now!
America’s MIC (Military-Industrial Complex) is the #1 existential threat not only to America, but also to the world. So, it is time to dismantle it, now!
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell in April to 101.3, down from 104.0 in March. This is the lowest reading since July 2022. The decline was driven by a darkening outlook that augers a recession beginning in the near future. The decline in consumer confidence was widespread, with all major demographic groups reporting lower readings in April. The biggest declines were among consumers under 55 years of age and for households earning $50,000 and over. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring consumer confidence and other economic indicators. The decline was driven by a number of factors, including:
The Fifth District Manufacturing Report for April 2023 showed that manufacturing activity continued to contract in April. The headline index fell to -10 from -5 in March, and two of its three component indexes — shipments and new orders — declined.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 2.0% annual gain in February, down from 3.7% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 0.4%, down from 2.5% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 0.4% year-over-year gain, down from 2.6% in the previous month. Miami, Tampa, and Atlanta again reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in February.
The U.S. Census Bureau reported that sales of new single-family houses in the United States increased 9.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 683,000 in March 2023. This is 3.4% below the March 2022 estimate of 707,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2023 was $449,800. The average sales price was $562,400. The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March 2023 was 432,000. This represents a supply of 7.6 months at the current sales rate.
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023Valid 00Z Wed Apr 26 2023 – 00Z Fri Apr 28 2023
…Heavy rain, isolated flash flooding and severe weather possible across
portions of the Central/Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley……Heavy wet snow expected to develop over the Colorado Rockies and into
portions of the Front Range tonight……Below average temperatures for large portions of the nation to the east
of the Rockies, while above average temperatures expand across the West……Elevated to Critical Fire weather conditions to persist across the
southern Rockies to southern High Plains; Slight Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms for central Florida…
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three-month moving average (MA3) for March 2023 was +0.01, up from -0.09 in February. This suggests that economic growth improved in the first quarter of 2023. Note that the CFNAI MA3 is a lagging indicator, meaning that it reflects economic activity that occurred in the past. The labor market remained strong, with job growth continuing at a healthy pace. Overall, the CFNAI MA3 suggests that the economy is growing, at a faster pace than in the fourth quarter of 2022.
The April 2023 Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey suggests that manufacturing activity in Texas slowed in April. The survey’s broad indicators for future activity suggest that respondents’ expectations for growth over the next six months remain subdued. The production index edged down to 0.9 in April, from 2.5 in March. The new orders index was negative for the 11th month in a row, falling to -9.6 in April from -14.3 in March.
Tomorrow morning, Tuesday, April 25, S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller will be issuing its National Home Price Index for February. Selma Hepp, the CoreLogic chief economist, shared the following statement on factors influencing the present housing market:
While lower mortgage rates helped entice some potential homebuyers off the sidelines this year, the U.S. housing market continues to face many headwinds, including pessimistic consumer sentiments, fears around recent banking turmoil, the lack of a seasonal spring home supply uptick and continued mortgage rate volatility. Nevertheless, the typical spring demand rush and the continued lack of homes for sale lifted prices in February, following seven months of monthly declines.
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023Valid 00Z Tue Apr 25 2023 – 00Z Thu Apr 27 2023
…Below average temperatures for large portions of the nation to the east
of the Rockies, while above average temperatures expand across the West……Heavy rains, isolated flash flooding and severe weather possible across
portions of the Central to Southern Plains……Elevated to Critical Fire weather conditions to persist across the
Southern High Plains…
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2023Valid 00Z Mon Apr 24 2023 – 00Z Wed Apr 26 2023
…March-like temperatures to engulf much of the eastern two-thirds of the
Lower 48, additional frosts/freezes expected; warmer in the Southwest..…Damp and dreary conditions to linger in New England tonight-Monday;
more showers and storms to develop in the South Central U.S….…Mountain snow and coastal/valley showers reaching the Pacific Northwest
will continue to spread into the northern and central Rockies…
Previous work has shown that the correlation between US federal government deficit spending and CPI inflation fluctuates widely and wildly over time. Results vary depending on data sample selection. That leads to the present decision to look specifically at each instance of inflation, disinflation, and deflation.
The JAMSTEC forecast is of interest partly because both Japan and the US. have weather that is mostly based on the Pacific Ocean.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2023Valid 00Z Sun Apr 23 2023 – 00Z Tue Apr 25 2023
…Showers and storms with locally heavy rain linger in New England
Sunday-Monday……Areas of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms continue Sunday across
southern Texas……Frost/Freeze expected across portions of the Central Plains into the
Midwest Sunday morning……Mountain snow and coastal/valley showers will spread from the Pacific
Northwest Sunday into the Rockies Monday…
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Composite Flash (a composite index of the manufacturing and services sectors) registered 53.5 in April 2023, up from 52.3 in the previous month, to signal the quickest upturn in business activity since May 2022. The faster rise in activity was broad-based, with the services activity growth hitting a 12-month high and manufacturing output expanding modestly but at the fastest rate since May 2022. New orders at US firms increased at the sharpest rate for 11 months, despite a continued decline in new export orders, amid new client wins, improved customer confidence and successful marketing strategies. In addition, employment growth was the quickest since last July, while backlogs of work increased for the second month running as companies mentioned further struggles finding suitable candidates and retaining staff amid rising wage costs. This is a data point that argues against a coming recession.
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.