Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 547 points or 1.6%,
• Nasdaq closed up 2.25%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.85%,
• Gold $2027 down $29.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 up $2.80,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.431% up 0.079 points,
• USD index $101.28 down $0.12,
• Bitcoin $29,510 up $653

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 253,000 in April, and the unemployment rate insignificantly declined by 0.1% to 3.4%. The job gains were widespread, with notable increases in professional and business services, health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance. The household survey showed employment gains of 139,000 versus the establishment headline number of 253,000. The household survey lowered the civilian workforce by 43,000. A warning sign in the data was the decline in temporary help services employment of 23,800 -this is normally a sign the economy is slowing. Let us just say that the headline numbers 253,000 and 3.4% appear good but this pundit cannot see how good employment can help in the fight against inflation.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil And Gas Drilling Activity In The U.S. Slows
• Is Russia Really Cutting Oil Production?
• India To Remain Heavily Reliant On Coal
• Russia Reports A Second Drone Attack On Its Ilsky Oil Refinery
• Used vehicle prices fell last month for the first time in 2023
• Crypto prices rise, and Coinbase shares soar after Q1 earnings beat expectations
• “Do Not Drive” Warning: NHTSA Recalls 90,000 BMWs Over Exploding Killer Airbags

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 287 points or 0.86%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.49%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.72%,
• Gold $2,058 up $20.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $68 down $0.11,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.366% down 0.037 points,
• EUR/USD $1.101 up $0.005,
• Bitcoin $28,871 up $512,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its report on productivity and costs for the first quarter of 2023 showing that productivity decreased 0.9% from one year ago. Unit labor costs, which measure the cost of labor per unit of output, increased 5.8% from one year ago. It is hard to understand how productivity could be declining – and usually is a sign that orders are slowing (and usually associated with recessions).

The advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment insurance claims for the week ending April 29, 2023 was 242,000. The 4-week moving average was 239,250, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 250 from 236,000 to 235,750. The increase in the 4-week moving average suggests that the labor market is slowing down. However, it is important to keep in mind that the labor market is still very strong. The unemployment rate is at a 50-year low, and businesses are still hiring at a rapid pace.

The U.S. international trade deficit in goods and services narrowed to $64.2 billion in March 2023. Exports of goods increased to $256.2 billion, while imports of goods decreased to $320.4 billion.The narrowing of the trade deficit in March 2023 was due to a number of factors, including:

• A decline in imports of oil and other petroleum products.
• An increase in exports of agricultural products.
• An increase in exports of transportation equipment.
• A decrease in imports of consumer goods.

Small business owners continue to struggle to find workers, with 45% (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reporting job openings they could not fill in the current period. The share of owners with unfilled job openings exceeds the 49-year historical average of 23%. Of those hiring or trying to hire, 92% of owners reported few or no qualified applications for the positions they were trying to fill. “The labor market continues to be a big challenge for small business owners,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “More owners are raising compensation to compete, but labor quality remains a serious problem for owners.” Overall, 60% of owners reported hiring or trying to hire in April. Twenty-nine percent of owners reported few qualified applicants for their open positions and 26% reported none.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• What New York’s Ban On Natural Gas Stoves And Heaters Means For The Country
• Turkey Makes Huge 1-Billion-Barrel Oil Discovery
• Saudi Arabia Cuts Price Of Oil To Asia
• China’s Economic Concerns Add To Oil Market Uncertainty
• Regional bank stocks continue to slide on Thursday with PacWest leading the way down 54%
• Stocks close lower for a fourth day on renewed bank worries, Dow goes negative for 2023: Live updates
• Crypto has ‘lost its shine’ for institutional investors, says Northern Trust executive
• AMD jumps 9% on report Microsoft is collaborating on A.I. chip push
• Trump Dominates GOP Field In Early Endorsements—Leads DeSantis By 72–5
• In One Chart: Fed ‘policy mistake’? Why a tumbling 2-year Treasury yield is spooking investors

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 270 points or 0.80%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.46%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.70%,
• Gold $2,037 up $13.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $68 down $3.49,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.352% down 0.087 points,
• EUR/USD $1.105 up $0.005,
• Bitcoin $28,351 down $384,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

The ADP National Employment Report for April 2023 showed that private payrolls increased by 296,000 (blue line on the graph below), much higher than expected. This was the largest gain since July 2022. The services sector added 229,000 jobs, led by leisure/hospitality (154,000), education/health services (69,000), and trade/transportation/utilities (32,000). Meanwhile, the goods-producing industry added 67,000 jobs due to construction (53,000) and mining (52,000) while manufacturing shed 38,000 jobs. Medium establishments created 122,000 jobs, small-sized companies 121,000 jobs only large firms 47,000 jobs. Job changers in particular saw a dramatic decline in pay growth to 13.2%, the slowest pace of growth since November 2021, from 14.2%. For job stayers, pay growth eased to 6.7% from 6.9%. The report also showed that average hourly earnings for private employees rose 5.4% from a year ago, down from 5.5% in March. The deceleration in wage growth is a sign that labor market tightness is easing.

The S&P Global US Services PMI for April 2023 came in at 53.6, up from 52.6 in March. This was the fastest pace of expansion in the country’s service sector since April 2022. The increase in the S&P Global US Services PMI suggests that the services sector is growing at a faster pace.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met on May 3-4, 2023, and decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 5.00 to 5.25 percent. The FOMC’s decision to raise interest rates was in response to high inflation which is not moderating quickly. There were few word changes in the meeting statement so there are no clues on how many more rate increases are projected. For a commentary on Chair Powell’s market-moving comments after the latest rate hike – [click here].

 

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• TotalEnergies To Launch $27 Billion Energy Project In Iraq This Month
• Rare Earth Metals See Prices Plunge
• Oil Prices Crash As Demand Fears Mount
• Iran Seizes Second Oil Tanker In Arabian Gulf
• Fed recap: Here are Chair Powell’s market-moving comments after the latest rate hike
• Dow closes more than 250 points lower Wednesday after Fed hikes rates for a 10th time: Live updates
• The market is looking for the next ‘domino’ to fall, keeping banks under pressure
• Private payrolls surged by 296,000 in April, much higher than expected, ADP says
• Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Attempt To Explain If The Pause Is Hawkish Or Dovish
• Fed’s Powell says U.S. banking system is ‘sound and resilient’ after First Republic failure

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.