NOAA Updates its ENSO Alert on May 11, 2023 – El Nino now 90% Likely
Lightly Edited at 9:39 p.m. Saturday, May 12, 2023 to add some details that I was too exhausted to sort out when I published early this morning.
On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. NOAA again describes their Report as “ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Watch”
There is not much doubt that we will have an El Nino.
From the NOAA Analysis:
The combination of a forecasted third westerly wind event in mid-late May, and high levels of above-average oceanic heat content, means that a potentially significant El Niño is on the horizon. While at least a weak El Niño is likely, the range of possibilities at the end of the year (November-January) include a 80% chance of at least a moderate El Niño (Niño-3.4 greater than or equal to 1.0°C) to a ~55% chance of a strong El Niño (Niño-3.4 greater than or equal to 1.5°C). It is still possible the tropical atmosphere does not couple with the ocean, and El Niño fails to materialize (5-10% chance).