13 June 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opens Higher, Trades Mostly Sideways, Closes Moderately Higher

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 146 points or 0.43%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.83%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.69%,
  • Gold $1,956 down $13.40,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $69 up $2.06,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.829% up 0.064 points,
  • USD Index $103.31 down $0.34,
  • Bitcoin $25,874 up $54,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Pundits believe the Federal Reserve will pass on raising the federal funds rate tomorrow because year-over-year inflation has now fallen to 4.0% year-over-year (blue line on the graph below) according to today’s consumer price index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) data for May 2023. Note that the CPI-U less food and energy index rose 5.3% year-over-year (red line on the graph below). Actually, food is up 6.7% year-over-year – and it is energy (think gas and oils) which is DOWN 11.7% year-over-year. It is energy driving the decline in the CPI, and this pundit would keep raising the federal funds rate (green boxed line on the graph below) until a sizeable decline in the CPI-U less food and energy is observed. The Fed believes there is a lag between raising rates and the effect on inflation of raising those rates – there is a lag but not a significant one when labor compensation is rising at a fast clip also. CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp added:

While the Fed is unlikely to steer away from the communicated path and will most likely keep the rates steady on Wednesday, Tuesday’s CPI report suggests that inflation pressures persist and the Fed will consider another hike next month. The likelihood of another hike or two has also increased given lack of credit crunch the Fed was expecting from the banking sector. As a result, mortgage rates, while still on a gradual decline, are likely to remain higher through the remainder of year.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased 0.4 points in May to 89.4, which is the 17th consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98. The last time the Index was at or above the average was in December 2021. Small business owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months declined one point from April to a net negative 50%. Twenty-five percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, up two points from last month and followed by labor quality at 24%. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB Chief Economist stated:

Overall, small business owners are expressing concerns for future business conditions. Supply chain disruptions and labor shortages will continue to limit the ability of many small firms to meet the demand for their products and services, while less severe than last year’s experience.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • China At The Forefront Of Nuclear Weapon Expansion
  • May Inflation Comes In Lower Than Expected
  • Oil Markets On Edge Ahead Of Fed Meeting
  • Oil Soars Nearly 4% Ahead Of Fed Rate Decision
  • Pay rise surprise leads to forecasts of higher interest rates
  • Mortgages: New squeeze on landlords will hit renters too
  • Ahead of Market: 10 things that will decide D-Street action on Wednesday
  • Should you be worried if your crypto is in Binance.US or Coinbase?
  • NerdWallet: ‘What if I live too long?’ Five things to know about taking Social Security at 62.

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Looking back at May 2023 in the U.S.

Every month NOAA takes a look at the prior month and sends me an email with their analysis. I am showing their full email report and I have added some additional images which support the report issued by NOAA. Some pretty interesting weather for May of 2023. This report also looks at the three-month period March through May which is meteorological spring. There has been a blocking pattern for some time which at least partially explains the west/east divide in the temperature and precipitation patterns. The NOAA report is very good and the state ranking graphics I added help to understand what has taken place as ENSO Neutral has tried to become El  Nino.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 13, 2023

Updated at 10 31 p.m. EDT June 13, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Jun 14 2023 – 00Z Fri Jun 16 2023

…Severe thunderstorm and excessive rainfall threat located across the
Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast over the next few
days…

…Locally heavy rain possible within scattered thunderstorms throughout
the Intermountain West, Rockies, and central High Plains today…

…Triple digit heat to expand throughout most of Texas by the end of the
week; Critical fire weather today across southern New Mexico…

12 June 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Streets Three Major Indexes Open Higher And Close Near Session Highs As The Fed May Not Raise Rates This Week

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 190 points or 0.56%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.53%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.93%,
  • Gold $1,972 down $4.80,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $67 down $3.08,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.736% down 0.009 points,
  • USD Index $103.61 up $0.05,
  • Bitcoin $25,830 down $248,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Survey of Consumer Expectations shows inflation expectations declined to 4.1 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon, its lowest reading since May 2021, but increased slightly to 3.0 percent and 2.7 percent at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons, respectively. Labor market expectations were mixed with expected earnings growth declining, and unemployment expectations and perceived job loss risk improving. Households’ perceptions and expectations for credit conditions and their own financial situations deteriorated slightly.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. Gasoline Prices Ripe For Volatility
  • Pakistan Pays For Discounted Russian Oil In Yuan
  • Saudi Arabia Signs $5.6 Billion EV Deal With China
  • WTI Plunges 4% Ahead Of Fed Rate Decision
  • Goldman Sachs Slashes Year-End Oil Price Forecast To $86
  • More Than Half Of China’s Power Capacity Is Now Non-Fossil Fuels
  • S&P 500 closes at the highest level since April 2022 as traders hope the Fed will skip a rate hike: Live updates
  • Inflation report Tuesday will be critical for the direction of Fed policy
  • The S&P 500 could pop after Tuesday’s consumer price index report, JPMorgan’s trading desk says
  • Fox News sends Tucker Carlson cease-and-desist letter over new Twitter show
  • Market Extra: It’s a ‘bull market’ for stocks. Here’s what that means.

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Carbon Dioxide Levels Continue to Increase June 12, 2023

There is a constant flow of news about Global Warming. One indicator of the drivers of Global Warming is the concentration of carbon dioxide concentrations. NOAA Report. We have previously explained how carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases cause the atmosphere to warm. Knowing the current level of carbon dioxide in the air is essential. Based on the assumption that we have a well-mixed atmosphere one could in theory measure it anywhere. An isolated place like Mauna Loa in Hawaii is ideal except when the volcano is erupting. Usually, it is close to a perfect location. It is measured in more than one place since the assumption that the atmosphere is well-mixed is an approximation. NOAA reports on the level monthly and I thought this would be a good time to provide one of their reports and explain the Keeling Curve.

 

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 12, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Valid 12Z Mon Jun 12 2023 – 12Z Wed Jun 14 2023

…Multi-day severe thunderstorm and flash flooding threat to continue
between the southern Plains and Southeast over the next few days…

…Instances of flash flooding and severe weather possible across parts of
the central High Plains and Mid-Atlantic today…

…Triple digit and potentially record-breaking heat expected throughout
much of central and southern Texas…

The State of Joe Sixpack in 1Q2023: The Average Joe Is Even Worse Off Than Last Quarter

Written by Steven Hansen

The Federal Reserve data release (Z.1 Flow of Funds) – which provides insight into the finances of the average household – shows a decline in average household net worth and an improvement in income. Our modeled “Joe Sixpack” – who owns a house and has a job, but essentially no other asset – is worse off than he was last quarter.

Colorado River and Utah Basins June 1, 2023 Condition Report Published on June 11, 2023 – Again Slightly Less Good than the Prior Month but Still Looking Very Good

The mission of the National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) is to produce river, flood and water supply forecasts for the Colorado Basin and the Great Basin in support of saving lives and property and to enhance the region’s environment and economy.

In this article, I am providing a summary of the situation as of June  1, 2023.  The situation is very good but flood risk from the snow meltdown has increased in a few places.

I have also included information on the current reservoir storage levels including a few that are outside of the Colorado River Basin.

The image below shows part of the area covered in the CBRFC Report.  The map shown here is only the Colorado Basin. The Eastern Great Basin is to the west of this map. The maps shown in the article cover both basins but are not as scenic as this map.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 11, 2023

Updated at 4:22 p.m. Sunday June 11, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Sun Jun 11 2023
Valid 00Z Mon Jun 12 2023 – 00Z Wed Jun 14 2023

…Severe thunderstorms and an isolated threat of flash flooding will
exist across parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley
through this evening…

…Locally heavy rainfall and a threat for flash flooding will exist over
the central High Plains through Monday…

…Unsettled weather with a threat for additional rounds of severe
weather, heavy rain and possible flash flooding is expected Monday and
Tuesday from the Red River Valley of the South through portions of the
Mid-South and Gulf Coast states…

…Triple digit and potentially record-breaking heat builds into much of
Texas over the next few days...

June World Agriculture Production Report – June 2023

Yes USDA monitors overseas crops as well as U.S. crops. This is done by the USDA Foreign Agriculture Service. I am reporting on this month’s report which just came out. It covers mostly May but it addresses the dam breach in Ukraine.

Some may find this information useful. Others will find it interesting. It is interesting to me that cool temperatures right now are more of a problem than warm temperatures. That is an interesting topic with respect to the impact of Global Warming. Many crops benefit from warm temperatures and sunshine to a point.   When that point is reached it becomes a problem. Stormy weather is usually bad for plants and predictable weather is an advantage.

There is a lot of information in this report but you have to look for it. The World is a very large place to be reporting on in a single article.