04 Aug 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Jobs Report Sent The Dow Up 175 Points, But Tripped While Celebrating And Closed Down Over 150 points

August 4, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 150 points or 0.43%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.36%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.53%,
  • Gold $1,977 up $7.70,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $83 up $1.07,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.050% down 0.139 points,
  • USD Index $102.04 down $0.50,
  • Bitcoin $28,984 down $308,
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -5 to 659 Canada -5 to 188

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 187,000 in July 2023, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.5%.  The employment gains show a continued cooling of the jobs sector – but still not bad. The household survey shows employment gains of 268,000 against the establishment survey’s 187,000. Health care growth accounted for nearly half of the gains. The leisure and hospitality sector has really cooled off and shows only 17,000 gains.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • OPEC’s Production Drops More Than 1 Million Bpd In July: Argus
  • Oil Products Accounted For 57% Of 2021 U.S. Energy Expenditure
  • Oil Prices Continue To Climb As Pace Of Drilling Continues To Slow
  • Amazon stock rallies after blowout quarter
  • JPMorgan backs off recession call even with ‘very elevated’ risks
  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq tumble for four straight days, both notch worst weeks since March: Live updates
  • Here’s where the jobs are for July 2023 — in one chart
  • US jobs market holds steady despite rate rises
  • Inflation among top 10 factors affecting fixed income market
  • Market Snapshot: Stocks turn lower, S&P 500 heads for fourth straight day of losses

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 4, 2023

August 4, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Aug 04 2023

Valid 12Z Fri Aug 04 2023 – 12Z Sun Aug 06 2023

…Persistent heat will continue to affect the Desert Southwest, Southern
Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley into the weekend…

…Elevated potential for flash flooding across the Northern High Plains
today, expanding eastward through the Dakotas into Minnesota for
Saturday…

…Stormy conditions expected for portions of the central to southeastern
U.S. through Saturday…

 

03 Aug 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street’s Three Main Indexes Opened Sharply Lower, Trended Upward To Briefly Trade In The Green Before Closing Down Fractionally In The Red

August 3, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 67 points or 0.19%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.10%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.25%,
  • Gold $1,969 down $6.30,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $82 up $2.19,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.183% up 0.105 points,
  • USD Index $102.51 down $0.08,
  • Bitcoin $29,261 up $133,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

U.S.-based employers announced 23,697 job cuts in July 2023 a 42% decrease from the 40,709 cuts announced one month prior. It is 8% lower than the 25,810 cuts announced in the same month last year, and marks the first time this year cuts were lower than the corresponding month one year earlier.

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 1.3% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2023 – an improvement from the previous quarter’s -0.6% year-over-year. Unit labor costs increased 2.4% in the same period which is a slowing from the previous period.

New orders for manufactured goods in June 2023 decreased 0.2% year-over-year (but UP 6.1% inflation-adjusted – red line on the graph below). The Federal Reserve’s industrial production manufacturing is down 0.3% year-over-year.

In the week ending July 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 228,250, a decrease of 5,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 233,750.

In July 2023, the ISM Services PMI® registered 52.7%, 1.2 percentage points lower than June’s reading of 53.9 percent. The Business Activity sub-index registered 57.1 percent, a 2.1 percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 59.2 percent in June. The New Orders sub-index was 55% and is 0.5 percentage points lower than the June reading of 55.5%. These numbers represent a weak growth service sector.

Forty-two percent of small business owners (seasonally adjusted) reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, according to NFIB’s monthly jobs report. The percent of small business owners reporting labor quality as their top small business operating problem remains elevated at 23%, down one point from June. Labor costs reported as the single most important problem to owners increased by two points to 10%. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

The small business economy continues to struggle with the current job market, with owners working hard to fill open positions. Hiring plans are trending down but are still historically strong in the face of a weakening economy.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Automakers Bank On Gigafactories For EV Expansion
  • Colombia’s Economic Woes Worsen As Cocaine Prices Plunge
  • What Does China’s Stimulus Plan Mean For Rare Earths?
  • The Oil Price Rally Is Gaining Serious Momentum
  • Oil Markets On Edge Ahead Of Saudi Arabia’s Next Production Cut Announcement
  • S&P 500 closes lower for a third day as rising bond yields pressure stocks: Live updates
  • Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Southwest Airlines, Qualcomm, Roku, Clorox and more
  • Bond Bloodbath Builds, Yield Curve Steepens, Black Gold Bounces Ahead Of Payrolls
  • ‘COVID-Karen’ Installed As Fauci’s Replacement At NIAID
  • Morgan Stanley upgrades India to overweight, downgrades China
  • Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks edge lower after biggest drop in 3 months

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 3, 2023

August 3, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Aug 03 2023

Valid 12Z Thu Aug 03 2023 – 12Z Sat Aug 05 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee/Middle Mississippi Valleys, Southeast and Southern
Appalachians, along with two areas over the Northern/Central Plains into
the Great Basin…

…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central High Plains…

…Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories from parts of Central/Southern
Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast…

 

02 Aug 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Market’s Opened Sharply In The Red, Traded Sideways, Sheds Nearly Four Hundred Points Closing Near Session Lows

August 2, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 348 points or 0.98%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 2.17%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 1.38%,
  • Gold $1,972 down $6.80,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $80 down $1.58,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.071% up 0.024 points,
  • USD Index $102.62 up $0.31,
  • Bitcoin $29,131 down $123,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Private employers added 324,000 jobs in July according to ADP (blue line on graph below). Job creation remained robust in July, with leisure and hospitality again driving growth. One weakness was manufacturing, an interest rate-sensitive industry that shed jobs for the fifth straight month. Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP stated:

The economy is doing better than expected and a healthy labor market continues to support household spending. We continue to see a slowdown in pay growth without broad-based job loss.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • There Is A Financial Crisis Brewing In Offshore Wind Energy
  • Chesapeake Energy Sees Drilling Costs Plummeting
  • Pakistan Facing Energy Crisis After Putting Off Buying Pricey LNG
  • Oil Falls Despite Massive Crude Inventory Draw
  • Saudi Aramco Closes In On Walmart As World’s Top Firm By Revenue
  • Europe’s LNG Imports Fall To 20-Month Low
  • JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon calls Fitch Ratings U.S. downgrade ‘ridiculous,’ but says ‘doesn’t really matter’
  • Nasdaq drops more than 2% for worst day since February as Fitch downgrade ignites selloff: Live updates
  • Private sector added 324,000 jobs in July, well above expectations, ADP says
  • Janet Yellen: Credit downgrade ‘puzzling’ and ‘unwarranted’
  • Market Extra: How Fitch downgrade might impact Treasury’s $1 trillion third-quarter borrowing plans

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 2, 2023

August 2, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Aug 02 2023

Valid 12Z Wed Aug 02 2023 - 12Z Fri Aug 04 2023

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday and a Slight Risk over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Southern Appalachians, along with two areas
over the Northern/Central Plains on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday and the Central High Plains on Thursday...

...Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories from parts of Central/Southern
Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast...

 

01 Aug 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Market’s Opened Down, Traded Mostly Along The Unchanged Line And Closed Mixed

August 1, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 71 points or 0.20%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.43%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.27%,
  • Gold $1,982 down $26.90,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $82 down $0.27,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.037% up 0.078 points,
  • USD Index $102.24 up $0.38,
  • Bitcoin $29,269 up $86,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The number of job openings was little changed at 9.6 million on the last business day of June 2023. As the number of job openings roughly correlates to employment gains, one would expect a continued modest slowing of employment gains in July 2023.

Construction spending during June 2023 increased 3.5% year-over-year (red line on the graph below) – down 6.2% year-over-year inflation-adjusted (blue line on the graph below). Construction is on an improving trend line.

The July 2023 Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.4 percent, 0.4 percentage point higher than the 46 percent recorded in June. This figure indicates an eighth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. Manufacturing remains in a recession.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Exxon Eyes Lithium Leadership: Enters Talks With Tesla, Ford, And Volkswagen
  • OPEC’S Production Falls By Most In 3 Years: Survey
  • Russian Crude Oil Exports Plunge To January Lows
  • Automakers Push Back Against New 58 MPG Fuel Efficiency Proposal
  • Russian Diesel Exports Rise As Refineries Return From Maintenance
  • S&P 500 slips to kick off August, Dow notches small gain after touching highest level in over a year: Live updates
  • Job openings, layoffs declined in June in a positive sign for the labor market
  • CVS to slash 5,000 jobs as company deepens costly health-care push
  • Short-Covering By Hedge Funds Lifted Oil Prices
  • Yellow’s Collapse A Tailwind For Other Freight Carrier Names, Deutsche Bank Says
  • Mid-sized private companies are more ‘cautiously optimistic’ but no one knows where the economy is headed, lender says

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates It’s August, 2023 Outlook on July 31, 2023- There Have Been Some but not Dramatic Changes from the Mid-Month Outlook

August 1, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is August of 2023. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some changes in the Outlook for August but they are not dramatic and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading.  We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for August for comparison. It is easy to see the changes by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for August. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the August Outlook. We have also included the current fire incidents and a map showing the water-year-to-date precipitation. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.

The best way to understand the updated outlook for August is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. But here are some of the highlights:

  • El Niño conditions are present in observations of the equatorial Pacific atmospheric and ocean, and are likely to continue through the month of August and into later seasons.
  • The updated August temperature outlook favors above normal temperatures across Alaska with more likely above normal temperatures for southeastern Alaska,
  • Above normal temperatures continue to be favored for much of the West, as in the prior outlook. However, probabilities of above normal have decreased substantially across the Great Basin, and there are now equal chances (EC) of above, near or below normal temperatures for much of California,
  • Below normal temperatures are favored for a small area of the northern High Plains,
  • Probabilities of above normal temperatures are further enhanced from the Southern Plains into the Southeast,
  • Average below normal temperatures are slightly favored for parts of the Northeast for the month of August,
  • The updated August precipitation outlook favors below normal precipitation for southwestern areas of the Alaska Mainland eastward along the coast into southeast Alaska,
  • Above normal precipitation is favored in a swath from the northern Rockies across parts of the High Plains, the Central Plains, and Ohio Valley,
  • Above normal precipitation is likely for August, probabilities exceeding 50 percent, for a small area of the northern High Plains,
  • Above normal precipitation is favored for the East Coast from parts of the Carolinas to New England, with much above average sea surface temperatures offshore and the influx of moisture.
  • Below normal precipitation is favored from parts of the Southwest, the Rio Grande Valley, and the Gulf Coast, to the Florida Panhandle,
I am going to start with a graphic that shows the updated Outlook for August followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for August and also the three-month outlook ASO 2023. So you get the full picture in two graphics.

Here is the updated Outlook for August 2023

For Comparison Purposes, Here is the Mid-Month Outlook for August.

There has been some change but not dramatic. Remember, it is the top set of maps that are the current outlook for August.

Combination of the Updated Outlook for August and the Three-Month Outlook

The top row is the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology.
Not much difference between August and the three-month period that includes August.  I am too tired to figure it out right now but there is some similarity between the one-month and three-month and the mid-month for August and the updated outlook for August. There is no reason for that but if I am not dreaming it there is some pattern there which I will look at again the next time I am coherent and have the time to do it.

ANALYSIS
Notice that for both temperature and precipitation, the one-month Outlook and three-month Outlook are not similar. This suggests that the Outlook for the combined second and third months if shown would be different than either the Outlook for the First (next) Month or the Three-Month Outlook. The formula for calculating the combined second and third-month outlook is:
For both temperature and precipitation, if you assume the colors in the maps are assigned correctly, it is a simple algebra equation to solve the month two/three anomaly probability for a given location = (3XThree-Month Probability – Month One Probability)/2*. So you can derive the month two/three outlook this way. You can do that calculation easily for where you live or for the entire map.

It is important to remember that the Outlook for next month was updated on the last day of the current month and the three-month Outlook was issued on the third Thursday. So the period of time between the Mid-Month and End of Month Update varies from month to month from 10 days to 16 days. So there sometimes is a substantial change in the Next Month’s Outlook from the Mid-Month prediction.  In such cases, we wonder if a change in the one-month outlook suggests that the three-month outlook would need to also be adjusted. This month I do not think that it is the case.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 1, 2023

July 31, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Aug 02 2023

Valid 12Z Wed Aug 02 2023 – 12Z Fri Aug 04 2023

…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday and a Slight Risk over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Southern Appalachians, along with two areas
over the Northern/Central Plains on Thursday…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday and the Central High Plains on Thursday…

…Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories from parts of Central/Southern
Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast…