World Agriculture Production and More: August 12, 2023

August 12, 2023Posted inagriculture, opinion, weatherNo Comments

Once a month USDA issues two reports on World Agriculture Production. The primary statistical report is issued by the USDA Chief Economist and the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service issues a companion report with is not as extensive but contains maps and other information that is always very interesting. I do not publish this article every month since it is difficult to prepare but this is a time of the year when the information is very relevant and important in terms of:

A. How it might be impacted by Global Warming and

B. The impact on the World GeoPolitical situation.

I am publishing it tonight and I may add some commentary tomorrow.

People like maps and graphs so we will start with those provided by USDA. It does not provide a total picture of World Production but many of what I will provide I think is interesting. There are so many that we will provide them without additional commentary. I am providing all of the maps and graphics but here is the LINK to the report.  This will be followed by the summary from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report which is called WASDE. Here is the LINK to that report.  It contains a lot more information but in table form with no maps and graphics.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 12, 2023

August 12, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Aug 12 2023

Valid 12Z Sat Aug 12 2023 – 12Z Mon Aug 14 2023

…Dangerous heat will persist across much of the South through this
weekend, with another heat wave expected to develop across the Pacific
Northwest Sunday…

…Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible Saturday for parts of
the Ohio Valley and Northeast, shifting to the Plains and Mississippi
Valley Sunday…

…Heavy rainfall expected for the High Plains late Saturday with
Monsoonal showers expected across the Four Corners region…

 

11Aug2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: NASDAQ Fell For The Second Week In A Row. PPI Inflation Modestly Ticks Up.

August 11, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 105 points or 0.30%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.56%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.11%,
  • Gold $1946 down $3.20,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $83 up $0.26,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.164% up 0.082 points,
  • USD index $102.99 up $0.08,
  • Bitcoin $29,358 down $65
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -5 to 654 Canada +2 to 190

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand ticked up and advanced 0.8% for the 12 months ending in July 2023 (blue line on the graph below). The increase in final demand prices was led by final demand services (green line on the graph below). We should expect the PPI to rise year-over-year for the remainder of the year as it is being compared to improving inflation conditions that began one year ago.

The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment for August 2023 was essentially unchanged from July, with small offsetting increases and decreases within the index. At 71.2 index points, sentiment is now about 42% above the all-time historic low reached in June of 2022 and is approaching the historical average reading of 86. In general, consumers perceived few material differences in the economic environment from last month, but they saw substantial improvements relative to just three months ago.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Economic Chill In China: Domestic Demand And Property Markets Waver
  • Indonesia Looks To Attract EV Producers With Zero Export Duty
  • The Oil Price Rally Stalls Amid Demand Uncertainty
  • Russia May Not Hold Presidential Elections
  • U.S. Oil Production Is Bouncing Back
  • U.S. judge sends Sam Bankman-Fried to jail over witness tampering
  • Trump-appointee David Weiss named special counsel in Hunter Biden probe as DOJ calls for trial
  • Hunter Biden Trial Likely As Plea Deal Negotiations Implode

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates its ENSO Alert on August 10, 2023 – The El Nino Advisory Continues. In a Week, NOAA Will Tell Us How this Impacts U.S. Weather

August 11, 2023Posted inClimate, weatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA (really their Climate Prediction Center CPC) issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status.  NOAA again describes their conclusion as “ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Advisory”

There is not much doubt that we have an El Nino. How long it lasts and its strength remains to be seen.

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ENSO DISCUSSION

The second paragraph is what is important:

“The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24.  Given recent developments, forecasters are more confident in a “strong” El Niño event, with roughly 2 in 3 odds of an event reaching or exceeding 1.5°C for the November-January seasonal average in Niño-3.4.  Note that a strong El Niño does not necessarily equate to strong El Niño impacts locally, with the odds of related climate anomalies often lower than the chances of El Niño itself (e.g., CPC’s seasonal outlooks).  In summary, El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than 95% chance through December 2023 -February 2024.”

We now provide additional detail but I am keeping this article shorter than usual because nothing much has changed since last month.

CPC Probability Distribution

Here are the new forecast probabilities. This information in the past has been released twice a month and the first release is based on a survey of Meteorologists, the second is based on model results. The probabilities are for three-month periods e.g. JAS stands for July/August/September. The first forecast is used to develop the Seasonal Outlook which will be issued next Thursday so that is what I am focusing on.

Here is the current release of the probabilities:

You can clearly see The forecast does not extend beyond MAM 2024 and one does see a slight tail-off in the probabilities for El Nino conditions in the Eastern Pacific after the winter season.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 11, 2023

August 11, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Aug 11 2023

Valid 12Z Fri Aug 11 2023 – 12Z Sun Aug 13 2023

…Dangerous heat will persist across much of the southern tier of the
U.S…

…Severe thunderstorms possible today for the Midwest and Saturday for
the Ohio Valley/Northeast…

…Monsoonal showers for the Four Corners region with generally below to
near average temperatures in the West…

 

10 Aug 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Morning Trading Saw the Dow Rise 454 Points, Afternoon Trading fell Sharply Erasing Early Gains, S&P 500 Closing Flat

August 10, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 53 points or 0.15%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.12%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.03%,
  • Gold $1,946 down $4.70,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $83 down $1.51,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.104% up 0.095 points,
  • USD Index $102.64 up $0.15,
  • Bitcoin $29,395 down $12,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) over the last 12 months increased by 3.3% – up from last month’s 3.1% (blue line on the graph below). The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the increase. The CPI for all items less food and energy is up 4.7% year-over-year – down from last month’s 4.9% (red line on the graph below). The effective federal funds rate (which is being used to control inflation) is now 5.1% (green line on the graph below. With the current increases in energy prices, expect the CPI to continue to increase over the coming months.

In the week ending August 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 231,000, an increase of 2,750 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 228,250.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. To Unfreeze Iran’s Oil Money In Exchange For Prisoner Release
  • Fossil Fuels Still Account For 82% Of Primary Global Energy Consumption
  • The Inflation Reduction Act Is Fueling A Green Energy Manufacturing Boom
  • Iraq’s Oil Exports To The U.S. Jump By 30.5%
  • Here’s the inflation breakdown for July, in one chart
  • Amazon axes some private label brands as part of wider cost cuts
  • X CEO Linda Yaccarino explains reason for getting rid of Twitter name
  • Wegovy weight-loss drugmaker sees profits soar
  • The Tell: Can the stock-market rally survive rising Treasury yields? Here’s what history says.
  • Bond Report: 2-, 10-year Treasury yields end at one-week highs after July CPI, Treasury auction

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 10, 2023

August 10, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Aug 10 2023

Valid 12Z Thu Aug 10 2023 – 12Z Sat Aug 12 2023

…Dangerous heat will persist across much of the southern tier of the
U.S…

…Severe thunderstorms possible today across the Carolinas while heavy
rain could impact southern New England tonight…

…Rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms expected for the upper Midwest
to the Great Lakes from late Thursday through early Saturday…

 

09 Aug 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Morning Trading Saw the Dow Fall Over 310 Points, Afternoon Trading Saw Green Before Slipping Sharply Into The Red Again Closing Down 191 points

August 9, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 191 points or 0.54%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.17%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.70%,
  • Gold $1,950 down $9.90,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $84 up $1.27,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.008% down 0.016 points,
  • USD Index $102.50 down $0.03,
  • Bitcoin $29,389 down $491,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No economic releases today.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • GasBuddy Sees U.S. Gasoline Demand Rising
  • European Gas Prices Surge 30% On Australian Supply Fears
  • Germany Looks To Gold To Help Weather Financial Storm
  • Oil Ticks Higher On Fuel Inventory Draws
  • U.S. Power Sector Criticizes Biden’s Emissions Reduction Plan
  • Thursday’s inflation data may be low, but don’t expect the Fed to declare ‘mission accomplished’ yet
  • ‘This is going to get worse before it gets better’: Panama Canal pileup due to drought reaches 154 vessels
  • Yields Slide After Impressive 10Y Auction Sees Most Foreign Buying Since February
  • The Ratings Game: Lyft’s second and third quarters look fine — but analysts are worried about the fourth

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Looking Back at July 2023 in the U.S. August 9, 2023

August 9, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

As I often do I reproduced John Bateman’s article in its entirety when I provide a review of the prior month.  I really did not have a link for his article but similar information was available at NCEI but John provides a good summary of the information so I tend to use it.

But I also like to add after John Bateman’s article, a few additional graphics namely the state ranking maps. These show how temperature and precipitation for each state ranks relative to the 139 years of what is considered to be the most reliable data we have.    

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 9, 2023

August 9, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Aug 09 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Aug 09 2023 - 12Z Fri Aug 11 2023

...Dangerous heat will persist across much of the southern tier of the
U.S....

...Severe storms expected today from eastern Kansas and Oklahoma to the
lower Ohio and Tennessee valleys...

...Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected today across from
parts of South Texas to far southern Oklahoma..