Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 187 points or 0.55%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.13%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.29%,
• Gold $1,931 up $15.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $74 up $1.89,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.058% up 0.017 points,
• USD Index $102.28 down $0.89,
• Bitcoin $30,231 down $110,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +6 to 680 Canada +8 to 175

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in June 2023, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.6% percent. Employment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction. There was a reasonable correlation with the 209,000 in the establishment survey as the household survey showed employment growth of 273,000. I consider this report reasonably good with employment growth continuing to grow faster than population growth. Employment continues to be the star of this economic cycle.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• China’s Steel Titans Brace For Tough Times
• U.S. Drillers Add Gas Rigs As Oil Rig Count Slips Further
• Oil Prices Remain Capped By Economic Concerns
• Saudi Arabia’s Latest Oil Price Hike Has Sapped Buyer Appetite
• Stocks tumble on Friday, notching weekly losses, as traders’ rate hike fears return: Live updates
• Here’s where the jobs are for June 2023 — in one chart
• House prices fall at fastest rate in 12 years, says Halifax
• US jobs growth weakest in more than two years

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 366 points or 1.07%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.82%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.79%,
• Gold $1,917 down $10.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 up $0.09,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.043% up 0.098 points,
• USD Index $103.13 down $0.24,
• Bitcoin $30,312 down $123,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

ADP says private employers created 497,000 jobs in June 2023 and annual pay was up 6.4% year-over-year. Leisure/hospitality, construction, and trade/transportation made up the majority of the gains. Employment shows no signs of an approaching recession.

The U.S. monthly international trade deficit decreased in May 2023 as imports declined 0.9% year-over-year whilst exports rose 7.0% year-over-year. The import data suggests slowing economic growth as imports have been slowing for the last year.

The number of job openings decreased to 9.8 million on the last business day of May 2023. Job openings have been in a downtrend for over one year – but they remain historically high which suggests a strong employment market.

According to Challenger, U.S.-based employers announced 40,709 job cuts in June 2023, down 49% from the 80,089 cuts announced in May. It is up 25% from the 32,517 announced in the same month one year prior.

In the week ending July 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 253,250, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 750 from 257,500 to 256,750.

In June 2023, the ISM Services PMI^® registered 53.9 percent, 3.6 percentage points higher than May’s reading of 50.3 percent. The Business Activity Index registered 59.2 percent, a 7.7-percentage point increase compared to the reading of 51.5 percent in May. Readings between 50 and 55 suggest a sluggish economy.

Seasonally adjusted, a net 36% of owners reported raising compensation in June, down five points from May and the lowest since May 2021. A net 22% of owners plan to raise compensation in the next three months, according to NFIB’s monthly jobs report. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

The labor force participation rate remains below pre-COVID levels, which is contributing to the tight labor market seen on Main Street. With labor demand remaining strong, owners will have to continue raising compensation to compete and fill their open positions, although that pressure is easing a bit.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Libya’s Oil Revenues Sink To $6.95 Billion In H1 2023
• EU Could Use Newly Launched Gas Cartel To Purchase Hydrogen
• MIT’s Groundbreaking Discovery In The Intriguing World Of Superconductivity
• Oil Prices Stabilize After Small Crude Draw
• Dow closes more than 300 points lower as hot jobs data raises fears of Fed rate hikes: Live updates
• Mark Zuckerberg’s Twitter rival passed 30 million signups overnight — here’s how to use Meta’s Threads app and what’s missing
• Mortgage rate soars to 7.22% after strong economic data
• Private sector companies added 497,000 jobs in June, more than double expectations, ADP says
• Job openings fall by half a million
• Bitcoin touches 13-month high, and Valkyrie refiles for spot bitcoin ETF: CNBC Crypto World
• Market Snapshot: Dow slides 350 points as jobs data triggers jump in bond yields

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 130 points or 0.38%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.18%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.20%,
• Gold $1,924 down $5.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 up $2.19,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.930% up 0.074 points,
• USD Index $103.35 up $0.31,
• Bitcoin $30,473 down $246,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

New orders for manufactured goods in May 2023 were down 0.1% year-over-year (blue line on the graph below) according to US Census. Inflation according to the producer price index for manufacturing is currently -4.0% year-over-year which means inflation-adjusted new orders are up 3.8% year-over-year (red line on the graph below). As a comparison, the Federal Reserve’s industrial production manufacturing is down 0.3% year-over-year (green line on the graph below). Pick the number you want to believe but most of the data points show manufacturing is in a recession.

The Federal Reserves FOMC meeting minutes for June 13–14, 2023 were released today. Their summarization of the current situation was on the mark:

Participants generally judged that growth would be subdued over the remainder of this year. They assessed that the cumulative tightening of monetary policy over the past year had contributed significantly to more restrictive financial conditions and lower demand in the most interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy, especially housing and business investment. Participants also acknowledged uncertainty about the lags with which monetary policy affects the economy and discussed the extent to which the full effects of monetary tightening on the economy had been realized. While total inflation had moderated over the past year, core inflation had not shown a sustained easing since the beginning of the year. With inflation well above the Committee’s longer-run 2 percent objective, participants expected that a period of below-trend growth in real GDP and some softening in labor market conditions would be needed to bring aggregate supply and aggregate demand into better balance and reduce inflationary pressures sufficiently to return inflation to 2 percent over time.

And their explanation of why they did not raise the federal funds rate at this meeting:

… participants concurred that while inflation had moderated since the middle of 2022, it remained well above the Committee’s longer-run goal of 2 percent. Economic activity had continued to expand at a modest pace. The labor market remained very tight, with robust job gains in recent months and the unemployment rate still low, but there were some signs that supply and demand in the labor market were coming into better balance. The economy was facing headwinds from tighter credit conditions, including higher interest rates, for households and businesses, which would likely weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation, al­though the extent of these effect remained uncertain. Against this backdrop, and in consideration of the significant cumulative tightening in the stance of monetary policy and the lags with which policy affects economic activity and inflation, almost all participants judged it appropriate or acceptable to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5 to 5-1/4 percent at this meeting. Most of these participants observed that leaving the target range unchanged at this meeting would allow them more time to assess the economy’s progress toward the Committee’s goals of maximum employment and price stability. Some participants indicated that they favored raising the target range for the federal funds rate 25 basis points at this meeting or that they could have supported such a proposal. The participants favoring a 25 basis point increase noted that the labor market remained very tight, momentum in economic activity had been stronger than earlier anticipated, and there were few clear signs that inflation was on a path to return to the Committee’s 2 percent objective over time. All participants agreed that it was appropriate to continue the process of reducing the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings, as described in its previously announced Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet.

But concluding the discussion “all participants noted that in their economic projections that they judged that additional increases in the target federal funds rate during 2023 would be appropriate“.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• America’s Oil And Gas Capital Is Leading The Transition To Renewables
• Metal Prices Face Bearish Headwinds
• China’s Export Controls On Rare Earth Metals “Is Just The Beginning”
• Tesla Production Jumps 20% In China
• U.S. Navy Stopped Iran From Seizing Oil Tankers Near Strait Of Hormuz
• Fed sees more rate hikes ahead, but at a slower pace, meeting minutes show
• GM second-quarter sales increase 18.8% as supply chain stabilizes
• Futures Movers: Oil prices end at a 2-week high on reports Saudi Arabia said OPEC+ will do ‘whatever necessary’ to support oil
• ‘What does that mean for me?’: Biden’s new stab at student-loan forgiveness has borrowers frustrated and confused

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.