Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 116 points or 0.35%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.83%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.59%,
• Gold $1884 down $7.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $92 down $1.93,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.557% down 0.049 points,
• USD index $106.16 up $0.50,
• Bitcoin $27,132 up $775

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The third estimate of 2Q2023 real gross domestic product (GDP) was unchanged showing GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.1%. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.2% (revised). The third estimate primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending that was partly offset by upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down. There was also no change to the PCE price index which is 2.5%.

The Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity declined somewhat in September 2023. The month-over-month composite index was -8 in September, down from 0 in August and up slightly from -11 in July. The decline from last month was primarily driven by decreases in durable goods, particularly metal manufacturing.

The National Association of REALTORS Pending home sales slid 7.1% in August 2023. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed. All four U.S. regions posted monthly losses and year-over-year declines in transactions. This decline is significant as year-over-year sales are down 18.7% – the existing home sales have collapsed. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist stated:

Mortgage rates have been rising above 7% since August, which has diminished the pool of home buyers. Some would-be home buyers are taking a pause and readjusting their expectations about the location and type of home to better fit their budgets.

United States Pending Home Sales YoY

In the week ending September 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 211,000, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 217,000 to 217,250.

CoreLogic’s monthly Loan Performance Insights Report for July 2023 shows 2.7% of all mortgages in the U.S. were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure), representing a 0.3 percentage point decrease compared with 3% in July 2022 and a 0.1% increase from June 2023. CoreLogic projects that home price growth will pick up over the next year. There is no indication of stress in home loan performance.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil Prices Fall After 2-Day Rise
• Revolutionary Nickel-Gold Thermoelectric Surpasses Semiconductors
• U.S. Says Chinese Minerals Control Will Make Energy Security More Complex
• China’s Latest Move Could Further Raise Global Diesel Prices
• EIA Cuts U.S. Hydropower Generation Forecast By 6% For 2023
• Saudi Arabia May Start Unwinding Its Production Cuts Sooner Than Expected
• History shows a September stock sell-off typically begets a fourth-quarter rally
• New Orleans residents brace for salt water intrusion as Biden declares national emergency
• California School District Considers Removing Honors Courses For Sake Of “Equity”
• Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 68 points or 0.20%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.22%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.02%,
• Gold $1894 down $25,
• WTI crude oil settled at $94 up $3.25,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.612% up 0.054 points,
• USD index $106.70 up $0.47,
• Bitcoin $26,233 up $25

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in August 2023 were up 3.0% year-over-year (down 0.5% inflation-adjusted) – blue and red lines respectively on the graph below. Most sectors were little changed from the previous month with civilian aircraft significantly down and defense spending significantly up.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Fusion Experiments Shatter Previous Energy Records
• Saudi Arabia Forms Joint Venture With Greece To Link Power Grids
• Bulgaria Pledges $2.7 Billion For Military Upgrade As Black Sea Tensions Rise
• $40B Deal With U.S. Companies Kickstarts Poland’s Nuclear Power Ambitions
• Government Shutdown Could Slow Down U.S. Clean Energy Rollout
• UAW again threatens to expand strikes at Detroit automakers if progress isn’t made by Friday
• 10-year Treasury yield reaches level not seen in more than 15 years
• Landmark marijuana financing bill clears big hurdle in the Senate
• US Shale Giant Agrees With JPMorgan: Oil Headed For $150

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

The red was flashing on the stock market tickers today. It is finally dawning that high interest rates, a government shutdown, the potential economy (and industry) killing wage demands by the UAW, and many other smaller economic issues will continue to weigh heavier on corporate profits – and may end up contributing to a recession.

• The Dow closed down 388 points or 1.14%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.57%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.47%,
• Gold $1918 down $18.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $91 up $0.93,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.55% up 0.008 points,
• USD index $106.18 up $0.18,
• Bitcoin $26,246 down $50

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite home price index posted a year-over-year increase of 0.1%, improving from a loss of -1.2% in the previous month. CoreLogic Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp commented:

Home price gains across the country have generally been solid. Lower-priced homes are seeing stronger recovery given the lack of affordable inventory and more demand pressure put on that segment.

The number of CEO changes at U.S. companies remained high in August 2023 as 157 CEOs left their posts in the month. It is down 20% from the 197 CEO changes announced in July, and up 149% from the 63 CEOs who left their posts in August 2022, according to a report released Tuesday by global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index improved in September 2023. The composite manufacturing index increased from −7 in August to 5 in September. Each of its three component indexes — shipments, new orders, and employment — increased. As several of the other regional Fed manufacturing surveys broke into expansion this month – could manufacturing be coming out of its recession?

Sales of new single‐family houses in August 2023 were up 5.8% year-over-year (significantly lower than the previous month). The median sales price of new houses sold in August 2023 was $430,300. The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 436,000. This represents a supply of 7.8 months at the current sales rate. Still, if one considers the high mortgage rates, new home sales are stronger than one would expect.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined again in September 2023 to 103.0 (1985=100), down from an upwardly revised 108.7 in August. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board stated:

Consumer confidence fell again in September 2023, marking two consecutive months of decline. September’s disappointing headline number reflected another decline in the Expectations Index, as the Present Situation Index was little changed. Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular. Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates. The decline in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups, and notably among consumers with household incomes of $50,000 or more.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Hydrogen Economy Gets A Boost With Advanced Catalyst
• Copper Prices Stuck As Stockpiles Skyrocket
• Study Says EU Could Scale Blue Hydrogen Faster Than Green Alternative
• Russia’s Crude Oil Exports Drop Amid Terminal Maintenance
• Oil Prices Under Pressure As U.S. Dollar Strengthens
•  IEA: Net Zero Still Achievable If The World Slashes Fossil Fuel Demand
• Ford Halts Construction At $3.5-Billion EV Battery Plant In Michigan
• Target says it will close nine stores in major cities, citing violence and theft
• The Looming Economic Cauldron
• Musk Warns Biden-Backed 40% UAW Pay-Hike Risks Big 3 Bankruptcy (Again)

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 43 points or 0.13%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.45%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.40%,
• Gold $1935 down $11.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $90 down $0.10,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.540% down 0.10 points,
• USD index $105.94 up $0.36,
• Bitcoin $26,531 up $101

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3-month moving average edged down to –0.14 in August 2023 from –0.15 in July. Thirty-five of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in August, while 50 made negative contributions.  I consider the CFNAI the best coincident economic indicator, and the 3 month moving average is used for economic forecasting as it removes the volatility of the monthly data. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above –0.70. Still, since the value is below zero, it means the economy is expanding below the historical trend rate of growth.

Growth in the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey resumed in September 2023 with the production index rebounding nearly 20 points to 7.9—its highest reading of the year. The new orders sub-index pushed up 11 points to -5.2, a reading still indicative of falling demand though not at the pace seen in the past several months. The regional Fed surveys are volatile, and I have seen no indication yet that manufacturing is out of a recession.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Armenia’s Western Pivot Sparks Unease In Moscow
• Chevron Getting Ready For New Oil Drilling In Venezuela
• Unprecedented Gold Hoarding By Central Banks Heralds Financial Sea Change
• The Spread Between Brent And WTI Has Aligned With Transatlantic Freight Costs
• ChatGPT can now ‘speak,’ listen and process images, OpenAI says
• Merck Covid drug linked to virus mutations that can spread between people, new study says
• Writers reach tentative deal with studios to end strike after nearly 150 days
• Bonds & Bullion Dumped, Dollar Jumps As Shutdown & Student-Loan Cliff Loo
• Government shutdown could leave thousands of federally backed mortgages in ‘limbo’

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.