Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 6, 2023 – Tropical Storm Philippee may hit Maine

October 6, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Oct 06 2023
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 06 2023 – 12Z Sun Oct 08 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Northeast on Saturday…

…There is a Freeze Warnings/Watches over parts of the Northern/Central
Plains overnight Friday…

…Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees below average over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley…

cone graphic

05 Oct 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Investors Traded Along The Unchanged Line, Pausing For The Fridays Job Report Finally Closing Mostly Flat In The Red

October 5, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 10 points or 0.03%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.12%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.13%, (low 4,226)
  • Gold $1,835 down $0.30,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $82 down $1.73,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.712% down 0.023 points,
  • USD Index $106.33 down $0.470,
  • Bitcoin $27,475 down $175,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The labor shortage continues to hinder Main Street as 43% (seasonally adjusted) of all small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up three points from August. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB Chief Economist stated:

Small business owners have spent the first three quarters of 2023 working to recruit and retain qualified employees for their businesses, but it still remains a top challenge. Owners continue to raise compensation to attract the right employees.

The goods and services deficit was $58.3 billion in August, down $6.4 billion from $64.7 billion in July. August exports were down 6.9% year-over-year. August imports were down 6.3% year-over-year. The graph below adjusts the import and export year-over-year values for inflation and deflation. The bottom line is that imports are telling us that consumer spending is weak.

In the week ending September 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 208,750, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 211,000 to 211,250.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Zirconium Nitride Outshines Platinum In Fuel Cell Performance
  • The Rise Of Nuclear Power In The Middle East
  • Argentina’s Oil Production Surges As Political Instability Soars
  • India Warns That OPEC+ Oil Supply Cuts Could Have Unintended Consequences
  • U.S. Shale Is Reluctant To Drill Despite Rising Oil Prices
  • S&P 500 closes slightly lower as traders brace for Friday’s big jobs report: Live updates
  • GM’s stock hits three-year low amid UAW strike, potential air bag recall
  • Trust In Congress Below 20% Third Month In A Row
  • As 75,000 Kaiser healthcare workers walk off the job, Tenet Healthcare could be next to face a strike
  • Cathie Woods’ ETFs sold more than $25 million worth of Tesla stock

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 5, 2023

October 5, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Oct 05 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 05 2023 – 12Z Sat Oct 07 2023

…There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Western/Central Gulf Coast on Thursday and the Northeast on Friday…

…There is a Freeze Watch over parts of the Northern Plains overnight
Thursday…

…Temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees above average over parts of the
Northeast…

cone graphic

04 Oct 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: U.S. Treasury Yields Fall, S&P 500 Rises, Dow Closes In The Green After Roller-Coaster Ride Across The Unchanged Line

October 4, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 127 points or 0.39%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.35%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.81%, (low 4,110)
  • Gold $1,838 down $3.20,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $85 down $4.50,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.720% down 0.082 points,
  • USD Index $106.71 down $0.290,
  • Bitcoin $27,654 up $375,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

ADP Private sector employment increased by 89,000 jobs in September 2023 and annual pay was up 5.9 percent year-over-year. We will see if the BLS employment report agrees on Friday – but the gain is worse than any month since January 2021.

In September 2023, the Institute of Supply Management Services PMI registered 53.6 percent, 0.9 percentage point lower than August. The composite index indicated growth in September for the ninth consecutive month after a reading of 49.2 percent in December 2022, which was the first contraction since June 2020 (45.4 percent). A reading below 55 indicates a slow economy.

New orders for manufactured goods in August 2023 improved 0.5% year-over-year – 0.6% inflation-adjusted. Manufacturing remains in the doldrums.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. Delays Aid To Ukraine Amid Domestic Political Disputes
  • Battery Lifespan Could Double With New Breakthrough
  • Investors Prioritize Profits Over Green Credentials
  • Germany Reactivates Coal Plants For Winter Power Boost
  • Oil Prices Tumble As The EIA Reports A Significant Gasoline Build
  • OPEC+ Leaves Oil Production Levels Unchanged
  • Dow adds 100 points to snap 3-day losing streak as Treasury yields ease from 16-year highs: Live updates
  • GM secures new $6 billion credit line as UAW strike costs reach $200 million
  • Economic Report: U.S. jobs report forecast: 170,000 new workers and 3.7% unemployment

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Crop Report October 4, 2023 – Frost Concerns Begin

October 4, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the October 3, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the week ending October 1, 2023.  The full USDA Crop Bulletin can be accessed HERE

It again seems like an average crop which is good considering the late and poor start.  But we are concerned about the Frost/Freeze warning. Because we published a few days late last week there have only been a small number of days between that article and this one.

This article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions which are generally favorable. I also included U.S. crop-related weather forecasts. And there is a small grains production forecast.

We first take a look at the frost/Freeze warning.

We then take a look at the impact of flooding in Greece. I realize that Greece is not in the U.S. but the USDA thought it important enough to include this in their crop bulletin so I am showing it as it may impact world cotton production.

Now on to the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 4, 2023

October 4, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Oct 04 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 04 2023 – 12Z Fri Oct 06 2023

…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains on Wednesday…

…Temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees above average from the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Northeast…

cone graphic

03 Oct 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines:U.S. Dollar rises, Dow Sinks 500 Points, And The S&P 500 Heads Down To The 4,200 Major Support Level

October 3, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 431 points or 1.29%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.87%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 1.37%, (low 4,216)
  • Gold $1,840 down $7.50,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $90 up $0.73,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.800% up 0.117 points,
  • USD Index $107.01 up $0.110,
  • Bitcoin $27,253 down $660,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) for August 2023 increased by 3.7% year over year in August 2023 compared with August 2022. On a month-over-month basis, home prices rose by 0.3% compared with July 2023. Said Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic:

While continued mortgage rate increases challenge affordability across U.S. housing markets, home price growth is in line with typical seasonal averages, reflecting strong demand bolstered by a healthy labor market, strong wage growth and supporting demographic trends. Still, with a slower buying season ahead and the surging cost of homeownership, additional monthly price gains may taper off.

The number of job openings increased to 9.6 million on the last business day of August. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 5.9 million and 5.7 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.6 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) changed little. The bottom line is that the labor market is in a strange situation where the employment gains are moderating whilst unfilled jobs have changed little year-over-year. Obviously, the properly skilled people are not available. IMO this gap will be closed by automating the skilled tasks.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • How Effective Are Electric Vehicles In Reducing Emissions?
  • Offshore Wind Industry Hits Rough Waters Amid Rising Costs
  • Budget Airlines Defy Travel Slowdown Concerns
  • Coal Production Surges By 83% At India’s Largest Power Firm
  • DOE Eyes Historic $1 Billion Loan To Kickstart U.S. Lithium Boom
  • Production Pauses Hit Tesla’s Q3 Figures Harder Than Anticipated
  • Dow loses more than 400 points and goes negative for 2023 as interest rates spike: Live updates
  • Mortgage rate races toward 8% after hitting a high not seen since late 2000
  • Krispy Kreme puts Insomnia Cookies brand up for sale as it doubles down on doughnuts
  • GM sales jump 21% in the third quarter, Stellantis sees a drop
  • Spiking yields weigh on homebuilder stocks, but their bonds are telling another story

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 3, 2023

October 3, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Oct 03 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 03 2023 – 12Z Thu Oct 05 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Western
Gulf Coast on Tuesday and over the Southern Plains and Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday…

…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains on Tuesday and a Slight Risk over parts of the
Southern High Plains on Wednesday…

…Snow over parts of the highest elevations of Wyoming…

 

02 Oct 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines:Markets Close Mixed After A Roller-Coaster Session

October 2, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 74 points or 0.22%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.67%,
  • S&P 500 closed flat 0.01%,
  • Gold $1,840 down $21.10,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $89 down $2.01,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.687% up 0.116 points,
  • USD Index $107.01 up $0.790,
  • Bitcoin $27,843 up $714,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing PMI® registered 49% in September 2023 – 1.4 percentage points higher than the 47.6% recorded in August. A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7%, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 49.2 percent, 2.4 percentage points higher than the figure of 46.8 percent recorded in August.

Construction spending during August 2023 is 7.4% above August 2022 – 3.3% inflation-adjusted. Construction now appears to be expanding year-over-year.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Rising Oil Prices Threaten Economic Stability
  • OPEC+ On Alert As World Bank Slashes China’s Growth Forecasts
  • Clash Over Electric Vehicle Battery Plants Stall UAW Negotiations
  • China’s Power Sector Investments Set To Top $13.9 Trillion By 2060
  • Dow slides to begin October even as Congress staves off government shutdown: Live updates
  • The benchmark for small-cap stocks — the Russell 2000 — turned negative for the year
  • Bill Ackman says the economy is starting to slow and the Fed is likely done hiking
  • Bonds, Bullion, & Black Gold Battered As Hawkish FedSpeak & Inflation Fears Lift The Dollar
  • Market Extra: Why stock-market investors aren’t finding comfort in averted government shutdown
  • Court strikes down federal rule that sharply increased prescription costs for many patients

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.