Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 177 points or 0.50%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.90%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.99%,
• Gold $1,959 up $12.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 up $0.35,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.957% down 0.055 points,
• USD Index $101.64 down $0.14,
• Bitcoin $29,316 down $146,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -5 to 664 Canada +6 to 193

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

---

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

---

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Real personal consumption expenditure growth in June 2023 was 2.4% year-over-year – up from 2.2% YoY in May 2023. Real disposable personal income growth was 4.7% – up from 4.1% in May. Inflation (as measured by the PCE Price Index) was 3.0% year-over-year – down from 3.8% in May. The bottom line is that the economy appears to be accelerating with inflation moderating going into 3Q2023 where some pundits are predicting a recession start. I have yet to see any data or trends which suggest a recession is possible.

The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment rose for the second straight month, soaring 11% above June and reaching its most favorable reading since October 2021. All components of the index improved considerably, led by a 18% surge in long-term business conditions and 14% increase in short-run business conditions. Overall, the sharp rise in sentiment was largely attributable to the continued slowdown in inflation along with stability in labor markets. However, sentiment for lower-income consumers fell. This group anticipates that inflation and their income prospects will both worsen in the year ahead, highlighting the heterogeneity of views across the population.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• New Catalyst Synthesis Paves The Way For Next-Gen Lithium-Air Batteries
• Imperial Oil Earnings Plummet By 72% On Turnaround, Lower Prices
• U.S. Drilling Dips Slightly Amid Rising Oil Prices
• 500 EVs Among The 3000 Cars On Burning Ship Off Dutch Coast
• Rising Gasoline Prices Boost Inflation Concerns
• Bullish Momentum Builds As Oil Markets Tighten
• Hopes Of A ‘Soft Landing’ Fuel Bullish Sentiment
• S&P 500 closes nearly 1% higher on softening inflation data, nabs 3rd week of gains: Live updates
• As Ford loses billions on EVs, the company embraces hybrids
• Key Fed inflation rate falls to lowest annual level in nearly 2 years
• Pentagon Approves Hazard Pay For US Troops In Ukraine, Paving Way For Possible Expanded Presence

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 237 points or 0.67%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.55%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.64%,
• Gold $1,944 down $26.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 up $1.01,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.010% up 0.159 points,
• USD Index $101.79 up $0.91,
• Bitcoin $29,162 down $285,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

---

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

---

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

New orders for manufactured durable goods increased again in June 2023 to 10.5% year-over-year compared to 9.25% last month. What other sources of this data may not be telling you is that the majority of the recent increases are from the aircraft sector. Still, durable goods appear to be doing better than other economic sectors. No sign of a recession in this data set.

According to CoreLogic, for the month of May, 2.6% of all mortgages in the U.S. were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due. The rate of mortgages that were six months or more past due, a measure that ballooned in 2021, has receded to a level last observed in March 2020. No sign of recession in this data set.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 2.6% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2023 according to the “advance” estimate. The implicit price deflator – which measures inflation in the GDP – has fallen to 3.6% year-over-year. Advance estimates historically can be wild guesses – but my take is that the next two estimates of 2Q2023 GDP will be stronger as the economy seems to be modestly accelerating. Inflation is a different issue as I expect the deceleration in inflation to begin to be more modest as the year-over-year growth will be compared to the decreasing inflation which began one year ago.

The Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity continued to decline in July 2023, and expectations for future activity stayed mostly flat. The manufacturing sector overall remains in a recession.

Pending Home Sales fell by 15.6% year-over-year which is an improvement. Pending home sales should begin to improve as it will now be compared to bad data from a year ago.

In the week ending July 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 233,750, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 237,500.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Cobalt Prices Rally As Battery Demand Booms
• New Catalyst Efficiently Cleans Methane From Natural Gas Exhaust
• Oil Ignores Fed Hike As WTI Hits $80
• Largest U.S. Power Grid Declares Emergency Alert
• Global Coal Demand To Stay At Record-High Levels In 2023
• Dow loses more than 200 points Thursday to snap historic 13-day rally: Live updates
• Bud Light maker Anheuser-Busch to lay off hundreds of corporate staff
• SpaceX aims to break a 56-year rocket record with back-to-back launches
• Bond Report: 10-, 30-year Treasury yields end above 4% after U.S. GDP, report on BOJ

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 82 points or 0.23%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.12%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.02%,
• Gold $1,976 up $12.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $79 down $0.71,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.863% down 0.051 points,
• USD Index $100.96 down $0.39,
• Bitcoin $29,401 up $203,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

---

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

---

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Sales of new single‐family houses in June 2023  is 23.8% above June 2022. The median sales price of new houses sold in June 2023 was $415,400. The average sales price was $494,700. The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of June was 432,000. This represents a supply of 7.4 months at the current sales rate. Funny how lower prices increase the volume of sales. The month’s supply of new houses is at levels associated with recessions.

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting statement shows they decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. They see the economic situation as follows:

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• China’s Aluminum Imports Skyrocket Amid Domestic Supply Shortages
• Big Oil Profits To Take a Hit Amid Lower Oil And Gas Prices Big Oil companies
• Oil Prices Fall Slightly On Small Crude, Gasoline Draws
• Rolls-Royce Shares Skyrocket 20% On Long-Haul Travel Boom
• China Accelerates Crude Stockpiling To Highest Rate In Three Years
• Fed approves hike that takes interest rates to highest level in more than 22 years
• Dow rises for a 13th straight day, posting its best winning streak since 1987: Live updates
• Here’s what the Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point interest rate hike means for your money
• Bankruptcies Hit Healthcare Hard
• The Margin: Netflix criticized for posting AI jobs paying up to $900,000 while writers and actors are on strike
• Regional-bank stocks add to gains on Fed move and after PacWest deal suggests stabilization in sector

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 27 points or 0.08%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.61%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.28%,
• Gold $1,966 up $3.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 up $0.85,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.896% up 0.037 points,
• USD Index $101.30 down $0.04,
• Bitcoin $29,216 up $107,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

---

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

---

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Composite Index in May 2023 posted a -1.7% year-over-year loss, the same as in the previous month. Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp explained:

In May, the CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index decline indicates the second month of year-over-year losses. However, while the annual decline reflects price drops that occurred in 2022, recent above-average price gains indicate an inflection ahead. And while home sales activity still continues to tell a tale of two markets: one of the West, which is constrained by a lack of existing inventory, and the other of the Southeast and South, where the availability of new homes for sale is creating sales opportunities; home prices are not necessarily following the trend anymore. Price gains have been strongest in Mid-West pandemic-laggers, Cleveland, Chicago, Detroit, which are now the hottest housing markets. In addition, 11 metros saw reacceleration in annual prices. Prices in many of the previously declining West Coast markets are rebounding and showing some renewed vigor, particularly as those are also most constrained with a lack of homes for sale. Heating of competition among buyers is also reflected in an increasing share of home selling over the asking price again, 39%, compared to an average of 25% pre-pandemic. As a result, median price premium (ratio of sale price to list price) is back to positive, at 1%, after declining since last September.

Richmond Fed manufacturing activity remained sluggish in July 2023. The composite manufacturing index edged down from −8 in June to −9 in July. Two of its three component indexes — shipments and new orders — also fell slightly. Manufacturing remains in a recession.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose again in July to 117.0 (1985=100), up from 110.1 in June. Expectations climbed well above 80—the level that historically signals a recession within the next year. Despite rising interest rates, consumers are more upbeat, likely reflecting lower inflation and a tight labor market. Although consumers are less convinced of a recession ahead, we still anticipate one likely before yearend. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board stated:

Consumer confidence rose in July 2023 to its highest level since July 2021, reflecting pops in both current conditions and expectations. Headline confidence appears to have broken out of the sideways trend that prevailed for much of the last year. Greater confidence was evident across all age groups, and among both consumers earning incomes less than $50,000 and those making more than $100,000.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Is China’s Economic Miracle Fading? A Look At The Hurdles Ahead
• Low Gasoline Inventories Push Up Prices For U.S. Consumers
• Oil Prices Tick Higher On Optimistic Economic Forecasts
• Russian Crude Oil Exports Continue To Plunge
• GM Raises Earnings Guidance For Second Time This Year
• Oil Bulls Are Cautiously Optimistic As Brent Holds Above $82
• Dow closes higher for 12th straight day, registers longest rally since February 2017: Live updates
• Home prices continue to climb with ‘striking’ regional differences, says S&P Case-Shiller
• Musk explains why he’s rebranding Twitter to X: It’s not just a name change
• Airline Stocks Hit Turbulence After Alaska Air Signals Slowing Demand

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 184 points or 0.52%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.19%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.40%,
• Gold $1,956 down $10.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $79 up $1.83,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.869% up 0.003 points,
• USD Index $101.42 up $0.34,
• Bitcoin $29,107 down $973,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

---

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

---

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

My favorite coincident indicator – Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three-month moving average – improved marginally from -0.21 in May to -0.16 in June 2023. Any value above -0.70 is considered an expanding economy but any value below zero considers the expansion below the historical trend rate of growth. In other words, the economy is growing – but weakly.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil Prices Climb To Multi-Month High As Market Eyes Tightening
• Canada To Cut Some Oil & Gas Subsidies
• TC Energy Agrees To Sell 40% Of U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines For $3.9 Billion
• U.S. Natural Gas Prices Fell 34% In The First Half Of 2023
• Musk risks even more damage to Twitter’s business as the messaging app changes name to X
• Dow rises nearly 200 points, extends rally to 11 days for longest winning streak in six years: Live updates
• The market is going through a short squeeze of historic proportions, even bigger than the meme craze
• Bitcoin drops to $29,000, and OpenAI’s Sam Altman launches Worldcoin: CNBC Crypto World
• Noose Tightens On Consumer Credit, Auto Loan Rejections Hit Record High
• Elon Musk: Twitter rebranded as X as blue bird logo killed off
• The Tell: This stock-market sentiment gauge hit a level not seen in over 2 years. But Jefferies says it isn’t a ‘golden indicator’ to the upside.
• Market Snapshot: Dow heads for longest winning streak in over 6 years as central-bank decisions and earnings loom

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.