Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 27, 2023

August 27, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Aug 28 2023 – 00Z Wed Aug 30 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southeastern
portions of the U.S. through Tuesday…

…Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories from parts of the Southern
Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southeast…

…Tropical Storm IDALIA is forecast to strengthen while moving northward
across the Gulf of Mexico…

cone graphic

Southwest Drought Briefing – August 26, 2023

August 26, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

NIDIS (National Integrated Drought Information System) hosted a Drought Briefing on the Southwest on August 22, 2023. In this article, we provide the recording of the webinar and some summary slides.

In the body of the article, there is an outline of the material presented in the webinar and the time that it is presented. The video should play if you click on it and then click again on the start button. But if for some reason it does not, simply click HERE and you will then be able to click on the start button and the video will begin. But I do not think that you will need to do that.

If the video starts somewhere other than at the beginning, you simply click on the progress bar and drag it to the left which is the starting position. The progress bar also allows you to skip over parts of the presentation that is of less interest and it will remember where you were if you watch the presentation in parts at different times.

Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Weather Forecast – August 26, 2023

August 26, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

As predicted, the recent observation confirms the development of the El Niño. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will reach its peak in the boreal autumn and persist at least until the next boreal spring. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predicted amplitude.

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World.

First, we take a look at the forecasted sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). JAMSTEC starts by forecasting the SSTA and Nino 3.4 Index on the first day of the month and from there it usually  takes their models about two weeks to produce their seasonal forecast. I received it from JAMSTEC on August 22, 2023 which was later than usual.  That is important because the model runs are based on conditions as of August 1.

This shows their forecast of sea surface temperature anomalies at three points in time. Red is warm and is associated with El Nino.  You can see the El Nino tongue of warm water extending from Peru to the west in all three time periods. It seems to be stronger in the 1st and 2nd time periods. The warmest water shifts west in the third period exhibiting Modoki characteristics. The JAMSTEC images seem more normal than the NOAA images. The full set of NOAA SSTA images can be found HERE.

Both NOAA and JAMSTEC are showing very warm oceans. I have written about that before. It raises questions about the reliability of our current approach to thinking about the ENSO Cycle. This is covered in another article that can be accessed HERE.

JAMSTEC uses the same definition of Normal (climatology as NOAA). They do a better job at characterizing La Ninas and El Ninos than NOAA. JAMSTEC provides me with a lot of other information that I do not include in my articles to keep them to a manageable size for readers.

Then we look at three forecasts. JAMSTEC tries to work with meteorological seasons and this month it lines up perfectly and we have three full-season forecasts.

Now we look at the three seasonal forecasts.

The above covers September/October/November (SON 2023) also known as meteorological Autumn.

Here is the interpretation from the JAMSTEC Discussion shown in the body of the article:

“The SINTEX-F predicts that most parts of the globe will experience a hotter-than-normal condition in the boreal autumn (austral spring). The Arctic region will experience extremely hotter-than-normal conditions. ”

“As regards the rainfall in the boreal autumn (austral spring), a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for some parts of the U.S.A., Hawaii, the northern part of the South American continent, eastern Australia, Uganda, Tanzania, Indonesia, some parts of Indochina, and the Philippines. In contrast, southern Alaska, the Caribbean, La Plata, some parts of India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, central and western Africa, the Horn of Africa, and some parts of East Asia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition. In particular, we notice that Indonesia and eastern Australia may experience extremely drier than normal conditions, owing to a combination of the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño. ”

“The model predicts that most of Japan will be warmer than normal in the autumn. The model also predicts that western Japan will be wetter than normal in the autumn.”

The above covers December/January/February (DJF 2023-2024) which is meteorological Winter.

Here is the interpretation from the JAMSTEC Discussion shown below:

“The model also predicts a similar condition (to autumn) in the boreal winter (austral summer).

“In the boreal winter (austral summer), a drier-than-normal condition is predicted for the western coastal areas of Canada and the northern U.S.A., Hawaii, Brazil, some parts of the South American continent, northern Australia, the Philippines, and southern Africa. In contrast, Alaska, some parts of the U.S.A., some parts of La Plata, central and eastern Africa, Madagascar, some parts of Central and East Asia, and some parts of Indonesia will experience a wetter-than-normal condition.”

“The model predicts that most of Japan will be warmer than normal in the winter. The model also predicts that western Japan will be wetter than normal in the winter.”

And above, March/April/May (MAM) 2024 is meteorological Spring.  JAMSTEC does not provide its interpretation of its third season but one can observe it on the maps.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 26, 2023

August 26, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Aug 26 2023

Valid 12Z Sat Aug 26 2023 – 12Z Mon Aug 28 2023

…Dangerous heat continues across the Gulf Coast this weekend…

25 Aug 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Investors Turn Positive After Fed’s Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Sending Major Indexes Moderately Higher At The Close

August 25, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 250 points or 0.73%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.94%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.67%,
  • Gold $1,942 down $5.20,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $80 up $1.00,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.239% up 0.004 points,
  • USD Index $104.14 up $0.160,
  • Bitcoin $25,650 down $70,
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -10 to 632 Canada +1 to 190

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

According to CoreLogic, annual single-family home rent growth eased for the 14th consecutive month in June 2023, registering a 3.3% gain, which remains in close range of the pre-pandemic growth rate. Lower-priced rentals continue to see more demand and thus greater annual gains than their higher-priced counterparts, a trend that is partially due to declining affordability and one that has been increasingly exacerbated by inflation. Molly Boesel, principal economist for CoreLogic stated:

Annual single-family rent growth has returned to its long-term, pre-pandemic rate, but increases for attached properties were one-and-a half-times that of detached properties in June; this is historically not the case, as both housing types tend to rise at the same pace. However, while rent growth for attached properties lagged that of detached properties in 2020 and 2021, it has outpaced the latter in 2022 to 2023. Rent growth for attached homes is projected to continue to exceed that of detached properties as the market balances.

From Econoday:

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium delivered reinforcement of past comments regarding inflation and the outlook for interest rate policy. He said, “It is the Fed’s job to bring inflation down to our 2 percent goal, and we will do so. We have tightened policy significantly over the past year. Although inflation has moved down from its peak—a welcome development—it remains too high. We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.”

After rising sharply for the past several months, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment moved sideways in August with a small decline that is not statistically different from July. Sentiment reached its second highest reading in 21 months and is now about 39% above the all-time historic low reached in June of 2022. While buying conditions for durables and expectations over living conditions both improved, the long-run economic outlook fell back about 12% this month but remains higher than just two months ago. Consumers weighed a combination of positive and negative factors in the economy, which led to differing offsetting trends across demographic groups. Consumers perceive that the rapid improvements in the economy from the past three months have moderated, particularly with inflation, and they are tentative about the outlook ahead.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Permian Rig Count Drops Amid Rising U.S. Crude Production
  • Walmart Drones Set To Take Flight In Dallas
  • Bullish Fundamentals Limit The Downside For Oil Prices
  • Canada’s Oil Production Continues To Surge
  • S&P, Nasdaq close higher, snapping 3-week losing streak as Wall Street shakes off rate hike fears: Live updates
  • Fed Chair Powell calls inflation ‘too high’ and warns that ‘we are prepared to raise rates further’
  • Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Nordstrom, Hasbro, Hawaiian Electric, Affirm and more
  • Wegovy helps reduce heart failure symptoms in obese people, study says
  • Tesla Investors Set For $12,000 Payout Each Over Musk’s “Funding Secured” Tweet
  • US faces more interest rate rises to cool inflation
  • Treasury selloff drives key 5-year yield to highest since 2008

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 25, 2023

August 25, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Aug 24 2023

Valid 12Z Thu Aug 24 2023 – 12Z Sat Aug 26 2023

…Dangerous heat continues from the Midwest to Gulf Coast, with relief
finally on the way for some by this weekend…

…Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible across the Lower Great
Lakes and parts of the central Appalachians into tonight…

…Scattered flash flooding concerns forecast from the central Great Basin
to the central High Plains through Friday…

24 Aug 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street’s Opening High Hopes Turn Sour As Previous Gains Slide Dramatically Down Closing In The Red

August 24, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 373 points or 1.08%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.87%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 1.35%,
  • Gold $1,945 down $2.70,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $79 up $0.09,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.235% up 0.037 points,
  • USD Index $104.01 up $0.590,
  • Bitcoin $26,024 down $659,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The number of CEO changes at U.S. companies surged in July, as 197 CEOs left their posts last month. It is the highest total since record-setting May, when 224 CEOs exited the top spot, according to a report released by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. July’s total is 67% higher than the 118 CEO exits recorded in June. It is 240% higher than the 58 CEO exits recorded in the same month in 2022. So far this year, 1,104 CEOs have left their posts, up 33% from the 832 CEO changes during the same period in 2022. It is the highest total in the first seven months of the year since the firm began tracking in 2002. Andrew Challenger, workplace expert and Senior Vice President of Challenger stated:

As layoffs slow, we’re beginning to see an increased pace of changes at the top. As staffing needs and hiring normalizes, Boards are looking for leadership with staying power.

New orders for manufactured durable goods in July decreased to 3.8% increase year-over-year in July 2023 (up 2.2% year-over-year inflation adjusted). This decline was entirely due to the civilian aircraft sector. Overall, durable goods is the only sector in manufacturing that is not in a recession.

Led by improvements in production-related indicators (orange line on the graph below), the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, modestly improved to –0.13 in July from –0.15 in June (purple line on the graph below).  The CFNAI is my preferred coincident indicator – and it shows a modestly improving economy expanding below its historical trend (average) rate of growth but well above levels associated with recessions.

The Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity was unchanged in August 2023. The month-over-month composite index was 0 in August, up from -11 in July and -12 in June. Overall manufacturing appears in the US remains in a recession.

In the week ending August 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 236,750, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 234,250 to 234,500.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Nigerian Military Destroys 8 Illegal Refining Sites In Niger Delta
  • India’s Slowing Oil Demand Growth To Weigh On Oil Prices
  • Saudi Arabia, OPEC Powers Invited To Join BRICS
  • New Mexico’s Record Oil Output To Generate $3.5 Billion Budget Surplus
  • August once again lives up to its dismal reputation for stocks
  • Nvidia earnings scare away AMD, Intel investors as legacy chipmakers lose ground in AI
  • Bitcoin ordinals inscriptions have been climbing steadily this summer despite lull in prices
  • Lionel Messi lifts MLS to new heights, but the league needs more than ‘the GOAT’ to grow
  • Elon Musk Vows To Sue Soros-Funded NGOs Over Free Speech
  • Jackson Hole Preview: “Do We Receive Another Hawkish Surprise?”
  • Why AMD, Marvell, Intel and other chip stocks are falling after Nvidia earnings
  • Movers & Shakers: Nvidia stock jumps after blowout quarter, while Dollar Tree and Boeing fall

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Crop Report August 24, 2023 – Things are Still Looking Good

August 24, 2023Posted inagriculture, weatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the August 22, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the week ending August 20, 2023. The USDA report usually becomes available on Tuesdays. I have omitted a number of graphics that are available in the full USDA Crop Bulletin which can be accessed HERE.

It now seems like an average crop or better especially given the recovery of the corn and soybean crops as the drought in the important growing area for those two crops let up.

The article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions. It includes a report on U.S. rice stocks (inventory). I also included crop-related weather information.

We begin with the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 24, 2023

August 24, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Aug 24 2023

Valid 12Z Thu Aug 24 2023 – 12Z Sat Aug 26 2023

…Dangerous heat continues from the Midwest to Gulf Coast, with relief
finally on the way for some by this weekend…

…Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible across the Lower Great
Lakes and parts of the central Appalachians into tonight…

…Scattered flash flooding concerns forecast from the central Great Basin
to the central High Plains through Friday…