Looking Ahead 28 Days from December 16, 2022; Plus Weekend Report; Plus Excerpts from NOAA Four-Season Outlook

December 17, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 6:32 p.m. EST Monday, December 19, 2022 (Our regular evening report will be published tonight).

Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days 1 and 2, Days  1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. We also include a next-day and 10-Day Global Average Temperature and Cumulative Precipitation Forecast. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the weekend and the next 28 days. Over the weekend and into Monday there will be frequent updates of the short-term forecast.

Looking out 28 days, what we see is:

  • For Temperature: The previous colder-than-normal air mass that entered the Northwest is moving east and being replaced by warmer-than-normal air from west to east.
  • For Precipitation: The evolution of the predicted Southern Tier drought for the first part of 2023.

We have also included the January 2023 and the JFM 2023 Outlook from the NOAA Seasonal Outlook issued on December 15, 2023.

NOAA Updates its Four Season Outlook on December 15, 2022 – La Nina Winter then Big Changes

December 16, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

La Nina Winter, then ENSO Neutral and then maybe something else (this is very little change from last month’s assessment)

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the MId-Month Outlook for the single month of January plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

We will begin to see the impacts of the end of La Nina for precipitation in March/April/May of 2023 and for temperature in May/June/July of 2023.

The maps show a series of changes which I have highlighted in my comments. Next winter will be very different than this winter.

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. NOAA seems to be more confident about making predictions beyond six months. They even predict a good Southwest Monsoon next summer which they never used to do this far in advance.

Weather Forecast: Today, Tomorrow, Five Days, 10 Days U.S. and World December 15, 2022

December 16, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to today, and the next 48 hours from Friday Afternoon’s NWS Forecast. This is a combination of a U.S. plus World Weather Forecast.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
247 PM EST Fri Dec 16 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Dec 17 2022 - 00Z Mon Dec 19 2022

...Light snow showers gradually coming to an end over the northern Plains
and Upper Midwest...

...Heavy snow to impact portions of the Interior Northeast through
Saturday...

...Well below normal temperatures enter the north-central U.S. by Sunday...

Weather Forecast: Tonight, Tomorrow, Five Days, 10 Days U.S. and World December 14, 2022

December 15, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:04 p.m. December 15, 2022

Here is what we are paying attention to tonight, and the next 48 hours from Thursday Afternoon’s NWS Forecast. This is a combination of a U.S. plus World Weather Forecast.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Dec 16 2022 - 00Z Sun Dec 18 2022

...Heavy snow and blizzard conditions will continue through tonight for
portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...

...Significant icing for parts of the interior Mid-Atlantic through this
evening...

...Heavy snow for parts of the interior Northeast through Friday...

Weather Forecast: Tonight, Tomorrow, Five Days, 10 Days U.S. and World December 13, 2022

December 14, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:30 pm December 14, 2022

Here is what we are paying attention to tonight, and the next 48 hours from Wednesday Afternoon’s NWS Forecast. This is a combination of a U.S. plus World Weather Forecast.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Dec 15 2022 - 00Z Sat Dec 17 2022

...Heavy snow and blizzard conditions will continue through Thursday in
the northern Plains and Upper Midwest...

...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will continue to threaten
portions of the South and Southeast through tonight...

...Accumulating snow and freezing rain likely to impact the interior
Northeast and northern/central Appalachians Thursday into Friday...

 

Weather Forecast: Tonight, Tomorrow, Five Days, 10 Days U.S. and World December 9, 2022 – Updated as Needed

December 13, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:06 p.m. December 13, 2022. Thursday afternoon and evening map is now included.

Here is what we are paying attention to Today and the next 48 hours from Tuesday Afternoon’s NWS Forecast. During the week we publish each morning. On Weekends, we will publish late Friday night and do updates during the weekend. Either way, you will have current forecasts with a longer forecast on the weekends. This is a combination of a U.S. plus World Weather Article.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 PM EST Tue Dec 13 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Dec 14 2022 - 00Z Fri Dec 16 2022

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms and a Slight to
Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over the Lower Mississippi
Valley/Central Gulf Coast through Thursday...

...Heavy snow over the Upper Midwest on Wednesday and over parts of the
Lower Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, and the northern Mid-Atlantic on
Thursday...

...Rain/freezing rain over parts of the Upper Midwest on Wednesday and
Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians on Thursday...

Looking Ahead 28 Days from December 9, 2022 Plus Weekend Report

December 10, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:55 p.m. Monday December 12, 2022

Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days 1 and 2, Days  1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. We also include a next-day and 10-Day Global Average Temperature and Cumulative Precipitation Forecast. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the weekend and the next 28 days. I will update the article with more recent short-term forecasts: Saturday through Monday

Over the weekend and into Monday there will be frequent updates of the short-term forecast.

Looking out 28 days, what we see is

  • For Temperature: Very cold air entering the Northwest and over the course of 28 days moving east to the Northern Great Plains while moderating to some extent.
  • For Precipitation: An unusually wet pattern that gradually becomes more spotty. We will learn more on Thursday when NOAA issues its Seasonal Outlook. But it looks like it will evolve into a few months of Southern Tier drought for the first part of 2023.

When we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the Media and online. The amount of information about weather provided to the general public is quite limited. It is available to the public. But most do not have the time or level of interest to seek it out. My articles are at an intermediate level between what is generally available from the Media (ten-day forecasts and a good explanation for the first couple of days and the information used by meteorologists to produce these forecasts for general distribution. So I focus on longer timeframes and more depth into why the forecasts are what they are.

NOAA Updates it’s ENSO Outlook on December 8, 2022

December 9, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:45 p.m. December 9, 2022 to complete certain edits that were not completed at the time this article was published. They add a little more clarity to the discussion.

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has again been adjusted slightly from the prior month. There is some disagreement on when this La Nina will end with the best guess being perhaps March. But some meteorological agencies believe it could be sooner than that.

But I have actually seen only a few signs of it starting to happen. But all the meteorologists agree that it will.  Could they all be wrong? Probably not.

Will this La Nina transition quickly to the El Nino phase? That would be unusual but some of the models suggest this will happen.

Weather Forecast: Today, Tomorrow, Five Days, 10 Days U.S. and World December 9, 2022

December 9, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:04 p.m. EST December 9, 2022

Here is what we are paying attention to today and the next 48 hours from Friday Afternoon’s NWS Forecast. During the week we publish each morning. On Weekends, we will publish late Friday night and do updates during the weekend. Either way, you will have current forecasts with a longer forecast on the weekends. This is a combination of a U.S. plus World Weather Article.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 PM EST Fri Dec 09 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Dec 10 2022 - 00Z Mon Dec 12 2022

...Major storm system to bring heavy mountain snow and coastal rain to the
West this weekend...

...Episodes of moderate to locally heavy rain possible as showers and
thunderstorms continue for the South...

...Wintry weather expected to enter the Northeast early Sunday...

Weather Forecast: Tonight, Tomorrow, Five Days, 10 Days U.S. and World December 7, 2022

December 8, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 6:05 p.m. December 8, 2022 to include the afternoon NWS 48 hour forecast. We will publish again tonight but also we will also publish the ENSO Update.

Here is what we are paying attention to this afternoon and the next 48 hours from Thursday Afternoon’s NWS Forecast. During the week we will publish each evening. On Weekends, we will publish Friday night and do updates during the weekend. Either way, you will have current forecasts with a longer forecast on the weekends. This is a combination of a U.S. plus World Weather Article.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 PM EST Thu Dec 08 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Dec 09 2022 - 00Z Sun Dec 11 2022

...Episodes of moderate to heavy rain expected to track across the
Southern Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley the next couple of days...

...Wintry weather spreading into the Central/Northern Plains today and
into the Upper Midwest on Friday...

...Heavy precipitation expected for the Pacific Northwest and northern
California today before significant mountain snowfall arrives tomorrow...