Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 13, 2023

May 13, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 6:10 p.m. Saturday, May 13, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 PM EDT Sat May 13 2023

Valid 00Z Sun May 14 2023 – 00Z Tue May 16 2023

…Much above-average temperatures expected to continue across the western
U.S., including record-breaking heat over portions of the Pacific
Northwest on Sunday...

…Additional heavy rain and flooding possible for parts of Texas and
Oklahoma into early next week…

…Severe storms expected for parts of the mid Mississippi Valley into
Saturday evening…

NOAA Updates its ENSO Alert on May 11, 2023 – El Nino now 90% Likely

May 12, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Lightly Edited at 9:39 p.m. Saturday, May 12, 2023 to add some details that I was too exhausted to sort out when I published early this morning.

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status.  NOAA again describes their Report as “ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Watch”

There is not much doubt that we will have an El Nino.

From the NOAA Analysis:

The combination of a forecasted third westerly wind event in mid-late May, and high levels of above-average oceanic heat content, means that a potentially significant El Niño is on the horizon.  While at least a weak El Niño is likely, the range of possibilities at the end of the year (November-January) include a 80% chance of at least a moderate El Niño (Niño-3.4 greater than or equal to  1.0°C) to a ~55% chance of a strong El Niño (Niño-3.4 greater than or equal to 1.5°C).  It is still possible the tropical atmosphere does not couple with the ocean, and El Niño fails to materialize (5-10% chance).

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 12, 2023

May 12, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 8:55 p.m. EDT Friday, May 12, 2013

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 PM EDT Fri May 12 2023

Valid 00Z Sat May 13 2023 – 00Z Mon May 15 2023

…Heavy rain, flash flooding and severe weather likely across large
portions of the Plains…

…Much above average to record heat building across the Pacific
Northwest, while below average temperatures expected across large portions
of the Plains…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 11, 2023

May 11, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 5:16 p.m. EDT Thursday, May 11, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
332 PM EDT Thu May 11 2023

Valid 00Z Fri May 12 2023 – 00Z Sun May 14 2023

…Heavy rains, flash flooding and severe weather likely across large
portions of the Plains…

…Much above average to record heat building across the Pacific
Northwest, while below average temperatures expected across large portions
of the Plains...

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 10, 2023 —

May 10, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 5:18 p.m. EDT Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Wed May 10 2023

Valid 00Z Thu May 11 2023 – 00Z Sat May 13 2023

…Heavy rain and flash flooding is likely across the Lower Mississippi
Valley through early Thursday before the next round of excessive rainfall
enters south-central Texas on Friday…

…Severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall for portions of the Central and
Northern Plains the next couple of days…

…Warm up coming for both the East and West Coast heading into the
weekend…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 9, 2023

May 9, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 8:56 p.m. EDT Tuesday May 9, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 PM EDT Tue May 09 2023

Valid 00Z Wed May 10 2023 – 00Z Fri May 12 2023

…Heavy rain and flash flooding likely across southeast Texas through
Wednesday…

…Several chances for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding throughout
the Plains through Thursday…

…Fire Weather concerns exist from the southern Rockies to the
Southwest…

…Well-above average temperatures for areas east of the Continental
Divide through Thursday...

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 8, 2023

May 8, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 5:26 p.m. EDT Monday May 8, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EDT Mon May 08 2023

Valid 00Z Tue May 09 2023 – 00Z Thu May 11 2023

…An active period of showers and thunderstorms expected across large
portions of the nation over the next few days…

…Heavy rains and flash flooding possible across eastern and coastal
Texas…

…Above average temperatures expected across much of the Plains,
Mississippi Valley and Southeast, while below average temperatures
expected along the West coast, inland into the Great Basin and across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic…

…Fire Weather threat to continue across the Southern High Plains…

Weekly Crop Report May 7, 2023 – It looks like a good start but it is very early in season so too early to draw conclusions.

May 7, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the May 2, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the April  24 – 30 period of time. The USDA report becomes available on Tuesdays but I plan to publish my article on Saturdays as it will be featured all day on Saturday. I may later decide to publish this report on Tuesday nights.  This week I was one day late because I was busy publishing the Colorado Basin report (which you can access HERE) so I apologize. I might add additional information. For those who need the information as soon as possible, the links to the information are provided at the end of the article.

It is early in the season so we are just beginning to have information on most crops. Moisture is not the major issue but some areas have to get a bit warmer.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 7, 2023

May 7, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:28 p.m. EDT Sunday, May 7, 2023 (“risky” is the word of the day)

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 PM EDT Sun May 07 2023

Valid 00Z Mon May 08 2023 – 00Z Wed May 10 2023

…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday and a Slight Risk over the
Central/Southern Plains to the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle
Mississippi/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Sunday, a Marginal Risk in the
Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valley on Monday, and Central/Southern Plains on
Tuesday…

…There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Southern
High Plains…

Colorado River and Utah Basins May 1, 2023 Condition Report Published on May 6, 2023 – Slightly Less Good than Last Month but Still Looking Very Good

May 6, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:15 a.m. EDT Monday, May 10, 2023 to include information on the Rio Grande in New Mexico

The mission of the National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) is to produce river, flood and water supply forecasts for the Colorado Basin and the Great Basin in support of saving lives and property and to enhance the region’s environment and economy.

In this article, I am providing a summary of the situation as of May 1, 2023.  But I have provided links to obtain more current information. In a way, the situation is very good but not quite as good as it seemed to be on April 1 in the Southern portion of the Basin. But flood risk has increased in a few places.

I have also included information on the current reservoir storage levels including a few that are outside of the Colorado River Basin.

The image below shows the area covered in the CBRFC Report. But I am also providing some summary information for the Utah Basin. I might still add some information for the Rio Grande in New Mexico.