Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 24, 2023

Updated at 6:35 p.m. EDT Monday July 24, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
327 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Jul 25 2023 – 00Z Thu Jul 27 2023

…No let up to the heat with above average temperatures expected across
much of the Lower 48 over the next few days…

…Additional record highs possible from the Southwest into the Southern
Plains and across South Florida…

…Severe weather threat from the Northern Plains into the Mid West and
across the Mid-Atlantic…

…Canadian wildfires to continue to produce poor air quality from the
Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley…

…Elevated to critical fire weather threat across the Northern Great
Basin and Northern Rockies…

 

Recently we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook which you can access HERE. But for those who do not have the time to read the full NOAA report, here is the near-term Outlook as presented by NOAA. We do however recommend reading the full report as it is very important.

Let’s Take a Look at the Mid-Month Outlook for August.

Combination Mid-Month Outlook for next month (August) and the Three-Month Outlook

Then I present a graphic that shows both the preliminary Outlook for August and also the three-month outlook ASO 2023. So you get the full picture in one graphic. For some, that may be all they are interested in. Others will be interested in the longer-term predictions and also the rationale supporting the predictions which is mostly provided by the NOAA discussion.

The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month.  I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term “climatology”.

Now, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)

Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE

TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)

TOMORROW

NEXT DAY

This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.

The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.

ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS

This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update.   Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.

Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.

The persistent mid to upper level high parked over the Southwest will move
little over the next few days. This will continue the string of days in
which record high temperatures are set across portions of the Southwest
into the Southern Plains and across South Florida. There has been a
reduction over the past few days in the number of records set from the
Southwest into the Southern Plains and South Florida compared to the peak
set last week. However, with the upper ridge remaining in place, much
above average temperatures and dangerous heat indices will continue across
the Southwest, through portions of the Plains and over South Florida.
Across these areas excessive heat warnings and heat advisories are
currently in effect. Over the next several days, nearly all of the
Lower 48 will have above average temperatures as the Southwest to Southern
Plains upper ridge builds to the east and northeast. The one exception to
this will be across the Northern Rockies into the Pacific Northwest where
a cold front moving off the northeast Pacific will produce below average
temperatures.

Along the northern peripheries of the building upper ridge from the
Southwest into the mid section of the country a frontal zone will drape
from the Northern Plains into the Mid West and Mid Atlantic region. This
frontal boundary will be the focus for areas of active thunderstorms,
producing areas of severe weather, heavy rains and isolated flash flooding
across the Northern Plains and Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and across the
Mid-West on Wednesday.

Northwesterly to westerly mid to upper level flow across central to
southern Canada into the northern tier of the U.S. will continue to
transport the persistent western Canadian wild fire smoke southeast. This
will produce poor air quality from the Northern Plains, southeastward into
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region over the next few days.

While temperatures are expected to be below average across the
Northwestern U.S. over the next few days in the wake of the inland moving
cold front, dry conditions, lower relative humidities and gusty winds will
support an elevated to critical fire weather threat across the Northern
Great Basin and Northern Rockies.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)

Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4.  An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.

Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.

Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep   .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.

6–

10

 

8–

14

3–

4

HAZARDS OUTLOOKS

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays.  Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report.  So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.

 

Daily Agricultural Weather Highlights can be found HERE

Month to Date Information

Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png

Precipitation month to date can be found at  https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png

World Forecast

Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6  forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE

World Temperature Anomalies

World Accumulated Precipitation

 

This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.

Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)

This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here  Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.

Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE.  Western Pacific information can be found HERE.

 I hope you found this article interesting and useful.

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