Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 18, 2023

July 18, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Valid 00Z Tue Jul 18 2023 – 00Z Thu Jul 20 2023

…Lengthy heat wave to continue in the Southwest, South Central U.S., and
South Florida…

…Tropical Storm Calvin weakening on approach to Hawai’i…heavy rains
expected…

…Canadian wildfires/smoke responsible for Air Quality alerts over parts
of the Northern High Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast…

New Experimental Forecast Addresses the Impact of Global Warming on Marine Heat Waves – July 17, 2023

July 17, 2023Posted inClimate, weatherNo Comments

This is a somewhat confusing post that appeared in the NOAA Climate Blog which is intended to be informative and also announce a new NOAA website which you can access HERE. But we already know that the oceans are getting warmer due to Global warming. Oceans are three-dimensional. Are surface temperatures important other than the impact on the atmosphere? It is a new website but I think they have publicized it prematurely as it is IMO not fully developed. But it is a good start. They have a long way to go. But the topic is very important.

Here is the definition of a Marine Heat Wave:

“The marine heatwave (MHW) in the forecast is identified when sea surface temperature anomaly (with respect to the 1991-2020 monthly climatology) is above the MHW threshold. MHW thresholds specific to each month of the year are calculated as the 90th percentile of SST anomalies in a 3-month window (for example, for January MHWs, the 90th percentile of all December to February SST anomalies).” [Editor’s note: why 90%? That seems pretty arbitrary to me but it may be appropriate. I did not address the issue of

That is reasonable enough. In the blog article, they show the forecast for September and what it would be if we did not have Global Warming. But the counterfactual only compares the forecast to thirty or so years ago so it is a stretch to call this with and without Global Warming. But it does call attention to the problem of oceans that are warming.

First, we take a look at the current situation:

 Not sure why they use a different color scheme. Not sure why they do not show the World. And we are in El Nino.

Then the with and without Global Warming for September of this year.

The yellow and orange colors show what NOAA calls Marine Heat Waves.  Of interest is the Atlantic Ocean which would be a major hurricane maker if not for the El Nino which blows the tops off of developing hurricanes. We expect to see the El Nino warm tongue off of Peru during an El Nino. But there are a lot of other areas that are yellow and orange but some of that is the IOD. I do not like the color coding that was used. I find the graphic confusing. I will get used to it. BTW it shows PDO Negative, unfortunately.

 

This is quite different and makes the point. But oceans are 3D and I prefer the way JAMSTEC handles it with layers of the ocean. NOAA probably does that as well but so far they have not figured out how to display it. And of course, 3D is difficult to display. I think they should show the legend with both graphics.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 17, 2023

July 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Jul 17 2023 – 00Z Wed Jul 19 2023

…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of New
England on Sunday…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of New
England and Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley…

…Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories from the Pacific Northwest,
California, and the Great Basin to parts of the Southern Plains, Central
Gulf Coast, and southern tip of Florida…

…Air Quality alerts over parts of the Northern High Plains, Upper
Midwest, and Ohio Valley…

Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast – July 16, 2023

July 16, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

As predicted, the recent observation confirms the development of the El Niño. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will reach the peak in August and persist at least until the next boreal spring. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predicted amplitude.

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World.

First, we take a look at the forecasted sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). JAMSTEC starts by forecasting the SSTA and Nino 3.4 Index on the first day of the month and from there it takes their models about two weeks to produce their seasonal forecast. I received it from JAMSTEC on July 13, 2023.

This shows their forecast of sea surface temperature anomalies at three points in time. Red is warm and is associated with El Nino.  You can see the El Nino tongue of warm water extending from Peru to the west in all three time periods. It seems to be stronger in the 1st and 2nd time periods. The warmest water shifts west in the third period exhibiting Modoki characteristics. [I have similar information on their SSTA projections from NOAA but I usually do not include it in the article I write on the NOAA Seasonal Outlook because they do not seem to focus on it and their information does not extend as far into the future as does the information from JAMSTEC].  It is hard to find any blue in this set of forecasts but there is a bit of blue off of Baja California which is interesting.  JAMSTEC uses the same definition of Normal (climatology as NOAA). They do a better job at characterizing La Ninas and El Ninos than NOAA. JAMSTEC provides me with a lot of other information that I do not include in my articles to keep them to a manageable size for readers. Yesterday we published the NOAA ENSO Advisory and our article can be accessed HERE. In that article, Emily Becker commented on the generally warm oceans and how this may make predicting the strength and duration of an El Nino difficult.

Then we look at three forecasts. JAMSTEC tries to work with meteorological seasons and this month it does not line up perfectly. This means we do not have three full seasons of forecasts this month because the first three-month period overlaps the second one. ASO is one month of meteorological summer and two months of Autumn and SON is autumn. So we really have autumn and winter (DJF) with a forecast that is the transition to autumn.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 16, 2023

July 15, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Jul 17 2023 – 00Z Wed Jul 19 2023

…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of New
England on Sunday…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of New
England and Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley…

…Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories from the Pacific Northwest,
California, and the Great Basin to parts of the Southern Plains, Central
Gulf Coast, and southern tip of Florida…

…Air Quality alerts over parts of the Northern High Plains, Upper
Midwest, and Ohio Valley…

NOAA Updates its ENSO Alert on July 13, 2023 – El Nino is here and 90% Likely to Last through Winter with a 20% Chance of a MegaNino

July 15, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status.  NOAA again describes their Report as “ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Watch”

There is not much doubt that we have an El Nino. How long it lasts and its strength remains to be seen.

From the NOAA Analysis:

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ENSO DISCUSSION

The second paragraph is what is important:

“The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24.  Forecasters favor continued growth of El Niño through the fall, peaking this winter with moderate-to-strong intensity (81% chance of November-January Niño-3.4 ≥1.0C).  An event that becomes “historically strong” (seasonally averaged Niño-3.4 ≥ 2.0C), rivaling the winters of 1997-98 or 2015-16, has an approximately 1 in 5 chance.  In summary, there is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.

We now provide additional detail.

CPC Probability Distribution

Here are the new forecast probabilities. This information in the past has been released twice a month and the first release is based on a survey of Meteorologists, the second is based on model results. The probabilities are for three-month periods e.g. JJA stands for June/July/August. The first forecast forecast is used to develop the Seasonal Outlook which will be issued next Thursday so that is what I am focusing on.

Here is the current release of the probabilities:

You can clearly see The forecast does not extend beyond FMA 2024 but one does see a slight tail-off in the probabilities for El Nino conditions in the Eastern Pacific after the winter season.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 15, 2023

July 14, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jul 15 2023

Valid 12Z Sat Jul 15 2023 – 12Z Mon Jul 17 2023

…Dangerous heat wave to remain anchored over the West this weekend;
growing hotter in the South by early next week…

…Excessive Rainfall and severe weather to transpire across the eastern
half of the Lower 48…

…Canadian wildfire smoke is responsible for Air Quality alerts in parts
of the North Central U.S. and Ohio Valley…

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 14, 2023

July 14, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Jul 14 2023

Valid 12Z Fri Jul 14 2023 - 12Z Sun Jul 16 2023

...Dangerous heat wave to stretch from the West Coast to the Gulf Coast;
at least 93 million people are under Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat
Advisories as of this morning....

...Friday features an expansive threat for Excessive Rainfall, highlighted
by a Moderate Risk for portions of the Northeast; severe weather likely in
the Central Plains...

...Saturday remains active with numerous heavy showers & storms in the
East; Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall in the southern High Plains...

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 13, 2023

July 13, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Jul 14 2023 – 00Z Sun Jul 16 2023

…A couple rounds of heavy rain could trigger additional flash flooding
over interior New England through tonight…

…Additional rounds of severe weather and flash flooding persist across
the central Plains, mid-Mississippi Valley and into the eastern Gulf Coast
over the next couple days…

…Significant heat wave continues to expand across much of the western
and southern tier of the U.S….

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 12, 2023

July 12, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Jul 13 2023 – 00Z Sat Jul 15 2023

…Additional rounds of severe weather and flash flooding persist across
the Mississippi Valley, Midwest, and Plains over the next couple days…

…Heavy rain potential returns to the Northeast Thursday…

…Building heat wave continues to expand across much of the western and
southern tier of the U.S….