NOAA Updates its December 2023 Weather Outlook on November 30, 2023 – There have been some significant changes from the Mid-Month Outlook.
Slightly modified at 6 pm EST December 1, 2023, to add additional clarity to the author’s comments.
At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is December of 2023. We are reporting on that tonight.
There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for December and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for December for comparison. It is easy to see the changes by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.
The article includes the Drought Outlook for December. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the December Drought Outlook. We have included a map showing the water-year-to-date precipitation. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.
The best way to understand the updated outlook for December is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.
I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for December and the Mid-Month Outlook for December. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for December and the three-month outlook DJF 2023 – 2024. So you get the full picture in three graphics.
Here is the updated Outlook for December 2023
For Comparison Purposes, Here is the Mid-Month Outlook for December.
| There have been some significant changes especially related to Temperature. Remember, it is the top set of maps that are the current outlook for December. We are not sure that NOAA (actually their CPC Divison) has moved the storm track sufficiently south given the strength of this El Nino as measured by the Nino 3.4 Index. But it takes time for the impacts of an El Nino to be fully felt and there are conflicting factors. The sample size of very strong El Nino’s is very small so this complicates the forecasting process. The probability that his El Nino will record as being historically strong is less than 50% but well above zero. The atmosphere has not responded to the extent one might expect by just looking at the Nino 3.4 Index. The El Ninos with the highest level of the Nino 3.4 Index are not always the wettest but sometimes are. So we are dealing with a fair amount of uncertainty. You can track the changes in our Daily Weather Article. |
Combination of the Updated Outlook for December and the Three-Month Outlook
The top row is the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020. So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology. The three-month map was issued on November 16, 2023.
Some readers may need to click “Read More” to read the rest of the article. Some will feel that they have enough information. But there is a lot more information in the rest of this article.
Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted December 1, 2023
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
We start with the U.S. Information. That is the longest part of the article. Then we have a short section on World Weather and then we address the Tropics. When there are tropical storms that might impact the U.S. we provide more detailed information which updates frequently on those storms.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report as I have moved the highlights into the body of the report where it is followed by the Today, Tomorrow and the Next Day maps and a lot more. I will try to feature the most important graphic in the lede paragraph on the home page. But there are often multiple maps that are very important so it is best to read the full article. We now have a snow report and it is possible to get a ten-day NWS forecast for the zip code of your choice.
Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 30, 2023
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
We start with the U.S. Information. That is the longest part of the article. Then we have a short section on World Weather and then we address the Tropics. When there are tropical storms that might impact the U.S. we provide more detailed information which updates frequently on those storms.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report as I have moved the highlights into the body of the report where it is followed by the Today, Tomorrow and the Next Day maps and a lot more. I will try to feature the most important graphic in the lede paragraph on the home page. But there are often multiple maps that are very important so it is best to read the full article. We now have a snow report and it is possible to get a ten-day NWS forecast for the zip code of your choice.
Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 29, 2023
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
We start with the U.S. Information. That is the longest part of the article. Then we have a short section on World Weather and then we address the Tropics. When there are tropical storms that might impact the U.S. we provide more detailed information which updates frequently on those storms.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report as I have moved the highlights into the body of the report where it is followed by the Today, Tomorrow and the Next Day maps and a lot more. I will try to feature the most important graphic in the lede paragraph on the home page. But there are often multiple maps that are very important so it is best to read the full article. We now have a snow report and it is possible to get a ten-day NWS forecast for the zip code of your choice.
Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 28, 2023
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
We start with the U.S. Information. That is the longest part of the article. Then we have a short section on World Weather and then we address the Tropics. When there are tropical storms that might impact the U.S. we provide more detailed information which updates frequently on those storms.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report as I have moved the highlights into the body of the report where it is followed by the Today, Tomorrow and the Next Day maps and a lot more. I will try to feature the most important graphic in the lede paragraph on the home page. But there are often multiple maps that are very important so it is best to read the full article.
Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 27, 2023
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
We start with the U.S. Information. That is the longest part of the article. Then we have a short section on World Weather and then we address the Tropics. When there are tropical storms that might impact the U.S. we provide more detailed information which updates frequently on those storms.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the report as I have moved the highlights into the body of the report.
Yes, indeed I have been able to add the Ski Report. I probably could add a way to enter a zip code and get a 10-day forecast for that zip code but that is easily done from a computer or smartphone. The purpose of this article is to provide a daily overview of the current weather in the U.S. with enough information to understand why the weather will be what it is and how it is likely to change over the next few days and the next few weeks.
I do not get paid for writing this article but I want to keep track of how many read it as that is how I can tell if I am providing the information that readers want and find useful. I have access to information that might be difficult to find for most readers. And it is in one place.
Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 26, 2023
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
We start with the U.S. Information. That is the longest part of the article. Then we have a short section on World Weather and then we address the Tropics. When there are tropical storms that might impact the U.S. we provide more detailed information on those storms which updates frequently.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the report as I have moved the highlights into the body of the report. Yes, indeed I have been able to add the Ski Report. I do not get paid for writing this article but I want to keep track of how many read it as that is how I can tell if I am providing the information that readers want and find useful. I have access to information that might be difficult to find for most readers.
Central Amazon Drought – November 25, 2023 – It is likely to continue.
Droughts occur everywhere in the world. In this article, we discuss the ongoing drought in the Central Amazon. The discussion is based on a Climate.gov Post.
I have provided almost the entire Climate.Gov Post but you can access the Post HERE.
Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 25, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Nov 25 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 25 2023 – 12Z Mon Nov 27 2023…Winter storm with areas of heavy snow and gusty winds continues further
into the Central Plains Saturday……Broad area of showers and thunderstorms expected across the eastern
U.S. Sunday; areas of moderate lake-effect snow possible for the Great
Lakes……Temperatures will be below average for large sections of the country
this holiday weekend…