Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index again declined and continues slightly in negative territory. Being slightly in negative territory is not necessarily indicative of a recession, and we continue to believe a recession is not imminent. There remain four major indicators signaling a recession.  Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 57 points or 0.15%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.35%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.01%,
• Gold $2,034 down $10.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 up $0.04,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.913% down 0.015 points,
• USD Index $102.61 up $0.650,
• Bitcoin $42,202 down $792 ( 1.84% )
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -3 to 623 Canada -9 to 185

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2023 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Likely To Decelerate

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Industrial Production remains in a recession declining 0.4% year-over-year. The components: manufacturing declined 0.8%, mining up 2.3%, and utilities down 1.0%.

Business activity declined in the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell twenty-four points to -14.5 continuing to oscillate around -8.6 — the average observed over the past year. New orders fell for a third consecutive month, and shipments also declined. Manufacturing continues in a recession in the U.S.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Drillers Cut Drilling Activity Amid Stabilizing Oil Prices
• Houthis Continue To Attack Ships Near Vital Oil Chokepoints
• Santa Getting Boost From Lower Gasoline Prices
• Global Coal Demand Is Set to Hit a Record High in 2023
• Citigroup employees, on edge over layoffs, told they can work remotely until the new year
• 10-year Treasury yield slips, adds to this week’s steep decline
• The Dow will try to keep its record-setting momentum in the week ahead as more inflation data looms
• Intel’s stock sheds a bear as a key catalyst awaits
• Top Fed officials says the Fed isn’t ‘really talking about cutting interest rates right now’

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Oct 01 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 01 2023 – 12Z Tue Oct 03 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the east
coast of Florida on Sunday and over the Southern High Plains on Monday…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern High Plains on Monday…

…Heavy snow over parts of the higher elevations of northeastern Utah…

 

Written by Steven Hansen

The Federal Reserve data release (Z.1 Flow of Funds) – which provides insight into the finances of the average household – shows an increase in average household net worth and an improvement in income. Our modeled “Joe Sixpack” – who owns a house and has a job, but essentially no other asset – is better off than he was last quarter.

Markets are closed today, but here are the headlines we are reading:

• EU Climate Boss Raises Concerns Over China’s Coal Expansion
• Saudi Arabia Sets The Stage For Big OPEC Production Cuts
• Saudi Arabia And Iran To Jointly Exploit Oil & Gas Fields
• China’s Bid For Energy Security Fuels Long-Term LNG Buying Spree
• What China’s Solar Dominance Means For Global Trade
• Canadian West Coast ports negotiation reaches impasse as port owners say ‘course change’ required
• Britain is now the only major economy where inflation is still rising
• Fireworks cause $59 million of property damage a year. Your insurance policy may cover it
• El Niño has officially begun. UN says phenomenon likely to threaten lives, break temperature records
• I spent 5 years interviewing 233 millionaires—here are 5 things they never waste money on
• German retail sales seen falling more than expected in 2023 as inflation bites
• Spain breaks record for international tourists in May

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries.