Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 697 points or 2.06%,
• Nasdaq closed down 2.50%,
• S&P 500 closed down 2.00%,
• Gold $1845 down $5.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $76 down $0.29,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.958% up 0.013 points,
• USD $104.18 up $0.32,
• Bitcoin $24,503 – 24H Change down $276.45 – Session Low $24,331

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

Existing-home sales fell for the twelfth straight month in January – slid 0.7% from December 2022 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million in January. Year-over-year, sales retreated 36.9% (down from 6.34 million in January 2022). NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated:

Home sales are bottoming out. Prices vary depending on a market’s affordability, with lower-priced regions witnessing modest growth and more expensive regions experiencing declines.

The January Manufacturing PMI registered 47.4%, 1 percentage point lower than the seasonally adjusted 48.4% recorded in December. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a second month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. The Manufacturing PMI figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered a seasonally adjusted 43.5%. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 42.5%.

CoreLogic’s Single-Family Rent Index (SFRI) shows rental price growth rose by 6.4% year over year in December 2022, compared with the 12.1% gain recorded in December 2021. Rental price gains have risen by about an average of $300 over the past two years.

Container exports and imports into the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in January 2023 continued their decline with imports falling 22% year-over-year (down from -20% last month) and exports falling -6% year-over-year (down from +15% last month). Imports declines are normally a negative economic signal – but a good portion of the decline can be attributed to port congestion one year ago where a ship waited months for offloading and elevated traffic above normal. Currently, port congestion has subsided. In my estimation, the amount of traffic going through the ports is not recessionary.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

The stock markets are closed today for President’s Day but there is still news. Click on the “Read More” below to read all the headlines we are following today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow was closed,
• Nasdaq was closed,
• S&P 500 was closed,
• Gold $1850 up $0.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 up $0.79,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.817% down 0.026 points,
• USD index $103.88 up $0.02,
• Bitcoin $24,793 up $515

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

None

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 130 points or 0.39%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.58%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.27%,
• Gold $1852 down $0.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $76 down $2.16,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.815% down 0.028 points,
• USD $103.88 up $0.02,
• Bitcoin $24,810 – 24H Change up $279.93 – Session Low $23,451
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -1 to 760 Canada -2 to 248

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

Interesting that import and export price inflation continues to significantly decline with year-over-year growth of import prices falling to 0.8% in January 2023 (from 3.0% in December) and export prices falling to 2.3% (from 4.3% in December). Falling energy prices were the main reason for the import price decline.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 431 points or 1.26%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.78%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.38%,
• Gold $1847 up $1.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $78 down $0.55,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.867% up 0.06 points,
• USD $104.03 up $0.10,
• Bitcoin $24,472 – 24H Change up $355.46 – Session Low $24,067

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

The Philly Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey shows manufacturing activity in the region continued to decline. The diffusion index for current activity fell from a reading of -8.9 last month to -24.3 this month. The new orders index remained negative, and the shipments index remained positive but low. The employment index declined but remained positive, and the price indexes continued to suggest overall increases but were in line with long-run averages. Most of the survey’s future indicators were positive but low, suggesting tempered expectations for growth over the next six months.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 6.0% for the 12 months that ended January 2023 – down from 6.5% last month. In January, a 1.2% rise in prices for final-demand goods led to an advance in the final demand index. Prices for final demand services also moved higher, increasing by 0.4%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the PPI are at nearly the same level. This data shows inflation is not going away quickly.

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in January 2023 were 27.3% below the January 2022 rate – up from -27.2% last month. Privately‐owned housing starts are 21.4% below the January 2022 rate – up from -22.5% last month. Privately‐owned housing completions are 12.8% above the January 2022 rate – up from the 5.0% last month. These improvements are considered modest, and unsure if this is the beginning of new trends.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued itsQuarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The Report shows an increase in total household debt in the fourth quarter of 2022, increasing by $394 billion (2.4%) to $16.90 trillion. Balances now stand $2.75 trillion higher than at the end of 2019, before the pandemic recession. The report is based on data from the New York Fed’s nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel.

In the week ending February 11, 4-week moving average was 189,500, an increase of 500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 250 from 189,250 to 189,000.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 39 points or 0.11%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.92%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.28%,
• Gold $1847 down $18.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $79 down $0.42,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.807% up 0.046 points,
• USD $103.88 up $0.64,
• Bitcoin $24,138 – 24H Change up $1,900.83 – Session Low $22,071

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

Industrial production continued its modest moderation in January 2023 showing growth of 0.8% year-over-year (down from 1.1% last month). The index was negatively affected by the utility portion of industrial production which declined from 9.1% last month to -8.9% this month – The output of utilities fell as a swing from unseasonably cool weather in December to unseasonably warm weather in January depressed the demand for heating.

Retail and food services sales for January 2023 are up 6.4% above January 2022 (blue line on the graph below). However, after inflation adjustment (red line on the graph below), sales improved from -0.8% year-over-year to 1.1% year-over-year. Retail trade sales (without food services) were up 3.9% above last year. Food services and drinking places were up 25.2% from January 2022, while general merchandise stores were up 4.5% from last year.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey headline general business conditions index climbed twenty-seven points but remained negative at -5.8. New orders declined modestly, while shipments held steady. Delivery times shortened, and inventories edged higher. Employment levels declined for the first time since early in the pandemic, and the average workweek shortened for a third consecutive month.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 157 points or 0.46%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.57%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.03%,
• Gold $1866 up $2.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $79 down $0.97,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.755% up 0.038 points,
• USD $103.24 down $0.10,
• Bitcoin $22,226 – 24H Change up $564.30 – Session Low $21,606

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was little changed at 6.4%. The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for nearly half of the monthly all items increase, with the indexes for food, gasoline, and natural gas also contributing. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month with the food at home index rising 0.4 percent. The energy index increased 2.0 percent over the month as all major energy component indexes rose over the month. The markets expected a smaller inflation number.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased 0.5 points in January to 90.3, remaining below the 49-year average of 98. Down six points from last month, 26% of owners reported inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business. Owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months improved six points from December to a net negative 45%. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

While inflation is starting to ease for small businesses, owners remain cynical about future business conditions. Owners have a negative outlook on the small business economy but continue to try to fill open positions and return to a full staff to improve productivity.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 377 points or 1.11%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.48%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.14%,
• Gold $1865 down $9.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $79 down $0.36,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.709% down 0.034 points,
• USD $103.29 down $0.34,
• Bitcoin $21,665 – 24H Change down $307.98 – Session Low $21,423

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

This month’s Survey of Consumer Expectations shows median inflation expectations remained unchanged at 5.0% at the one-year horizon, decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.7% at the three-year horizon, and rose 0.1 points to 2.5% at the five-year horizon, according to the January Survey of Consumer Expectations. Median expected growth in household income dropped by 1.3 percentage points to 3.3%, the largest one-month drop in the series’ history. The series, however, remains well above its pre-pandemic levels.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 169 points or 0.50%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.61%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.22%,
• Gold $1875 closed down $3.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 up $1.74,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.745% up 0.062 points,
• USD $103.57 up $0.35,
• Bitcoin $21,713 – 24H Change down $255.56 – Session Low $21,579
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +2 to 761 Canada +1 to 250

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

The outlook for the U.S. economy in 2023 looks somewhat better now than it did three months ago, according to 37 forecasters surveyed in the First Quarter 2023 Survey of Professional Forecasters. The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 0.6% this quarter and 1.0% in the second quarter of 2023, up from the previous predictions of 0.2% in each quarter. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters expect real GDP to increase by 1.3% in 2023, up from the projection of 0.7% in the survey of three months ago.

The New York Fed’s Labor Market for Recent College Graduates page has been updated.  Check out new 2022:Q4 data on unemployment, underemployment, and underemployed job types, as well as the annual update of data on wages and labor market outcomes by major.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 249 points or 0.73%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.02%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.88%,
• Gold $1873 down $18.15,
• WTI crude oil settled at $78 down $0.80,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.667% up 0.031 points,
• USD $103.26 down $0.14,
• Bitcoin $21,950 – 24H Change down $910.28 – Session Low $21,880

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

The Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker Was 6.1 Percent in January, the same as in December. For people who changed jobs, the Tracker in January was 7.3 percent, compared to 7.7 percent in December. For those not changing jobs, the Tracker was 5.4 percent, compared to the 5.3 percent reading in December.

In the week ending February 4, the unemployment insurance weekly initial claims 4-week moving average was 189,250, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 191,750.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 207 points or 0.61%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.68%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.11%,
• Gold $1887 up $1.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $1.28,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.638% down 0.038 points,
• USD $103.49 up $0.06,
• Bitcoin $22,840 down $366.35 – Session Low $22.720

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

December 2022 sales of merchant wholesalers were up 7.3% (green line on the graph below) year-over-year. However, after the inflation adjustment – year-over-year sales were down 1.7% (red line on the graph below). Sales continue to worsen and should be considered a potential recession flag. The December inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers was 1.36 (blue line on the graph below). The December 2021 ratio was 1.24. A rising ratio is could be a recession flag.

The federal budget deficit was $459 billion in the first four months of fiscal year 2023, the Congressional Budget Office estimates—$200 billion more than the shortfall recorded during the same period last year. Outlays were 9 percent higher and revenues were 3 percent lower from October through January than during the same period in fiscal year 2022. Outlays in fiscal year 2023 were reduced by the shifting of certain payments—totaling $63 billion—from October 1, 2022 (the first day of fiscal year 2023), into fiscal year 2022 because October 1 fell on a weekend. If not for those shifts, the deficit would have been $522 billion, double the shortfall during the same period in fiscal year 2022.

A summary of headlines we are reading today: