Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 401 points or 1.03%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.25%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.89%,
• Gold $2186 up $26.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $82 up $1.63,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.279% down 0.018 points,
• USD index $103.42 down $0.39,
• Bitcoin $65,795 up $3,889

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting concluded today with no adjustment to the federal funds rate as inflation remains above their 2.o% target although the economy and employment are strong. The Fed Chair Powell additionally communicated they expect up to 3 rate cuts this year. Not sure any of this makes sense as by their admission the economy is expanding which historically is coincident with raising (not cutting) the federal funds rate. Additionally, there are no signs yet that inflationary pressures have subsided. In any event, the market took the potential of rate cuts with gusto driving the markets to historical highs. The text of the meeting statement:

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Saudi Aramco To Expand Natural Gas Output Capacity by 60%
• Israel’s Gas Exports to Egypt Soar Despite Political Tensions
• Chinese Fuel Oil Imports Jumped by 21% in the First Two Months of the Year
• EPA issues new auto rules aimed at cutting carbon emissions, boosting electric vehicles and hybrids
• Israel Furious After Canada Votes To Halt Arms Exports To Tel Aviv
• Only 30% Of New Yorkers Are Happy With City’s Quality Of Life, 50% Plan On Leaving Within Five Years
• Fed Chair Powell Explains Why The Dots ‘Are Not A Forecast’, But…

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 320 points or 0.83%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.39%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.56%,
• Gold $2161 down $3.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $83 up $0.76,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.296% down 0.044 points,
• USD index $103.82 up $0.39,
• Bitcoin $63,047 down $3,664

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in February 2024 were 2.4% above February 2023.Privately‐owned housing starts 5.9% above February 2023. Privately‐owned housing completions were 9.6% above February 2023. New housing construction continues to be an economic bright spot.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Breakthrough Catalyst Turns Sewage Into Clean Energy
• Russia Promises To Defend Oil Infrastructure With Missiles
• Hot Inflation Data Raises Stakes for Tomorrow’s Fed Meeting
• Oil Gains Momentum as China’s Demand Outlook Improves
• India Buys More U.S. Oil
• Bitcoin Continues To Sink Despite Bullish Bets by Big Banks
• U.S. Aims to Restock Strategic Oil Reserves by Year-End
• Why EVs are causing a tire boom
• There Goes The Fed’s Inflation Target: Goldman Sees Terminal Rate 100bps Higher At 3.5%
• Netanyahu To Biden: “There’s No Way To Destroy Hamas Without Rafah Ground Op”

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 76 points or 0.20%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.82%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.63%,
• Gold $2163 up $1.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $83 up $1.85,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.332% up 0.028 points,
• USD index $103.61 up $0.18,
• Bitcoin $67,050 down $1,304,

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach move 40% of USA container volumes. In February 2024, imports surged 47% year-over-year whilst exports rose 14%. This suggests that the USA economy is improving and so is the international economy. However, as you can see from the graph below – the levels remain similar to those seen 10 years ago.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• China’s Solar Power Dominance Threatens Western Clean Energy Dreams
• Biden Charges Forward With Historic Auto Emission Crackdown
• Is a Copper Crisis Coming? Prices Hit New Highs on Smelter Cuts
• CNOOC Makes Another Major Oil Discovery Offshore China
• Nations Divided Over Fees on Shipping Industry Emissions
• Saudi Aramco CEO says energy transition is failing, world should abandon ‘fantasy’ of phasing out oil
• Bitcoin slips further below $68,000, adding to weekend losses
• Odds of a June rate cut by Fed slip below 50%, according to this gauge

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 191 points or 0.49%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.95%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.65%,
• Gold $2,160 down $7.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $81 down $0.25,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.308% up 0.010 points,
• USD index $103.44 up $0.080,
• Bitcoin $68,630 down $1,080 (1.68%), – Historic high 73,798.25
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +7 to 629 Canada -18 to 207

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Industrial production remained down 0.2% year-over-year in February 2024. Manufacturing subindex continued in negative territory at -0.4% year-over-year. Utilities subindex increased to 0.8% gain year-over-year, and the mining subindex declined but was still up 1.4% year-over-year. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector remained at 78.3 percent in February, a rate that is 1.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average. Manufacturing remains in a recession in the USA.

The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey for March 2024 showed the headline general business conditions index fell nineteen points to -20.9. Manufacturing remains in a recession in the USA.

Michigan Consumer sentiment moved little this month with a 0.4 index point decrease that is well within the margin of error, and thus sentiment has been steady and essentially unchanged since January 2024. Sentiment remained almost 25% above November 2023 and is currently halfway between the historic low reached during the peak of inflation in June 2022 and pre-pandemic readings. Small improvements in personal finances were offset by modest declines in expectations for business conditions. After strong gains between November 2023 and January 2024, consumer views have stabilized into a holding pattern; consumers perceived few signals that the economy is currently improving or deteriorating. Indeed, many are withholding judgment about the trajectory of the economy, particularly in the long term, pending the results of this November’s election.

U.S. import prices declined 0.8% year-over-year in February 2024. Prices for U.S. exports declined 1.8% year-over-year.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Bloomberg Survey: Brent To Exceed $80 By Year’s End
• U.S. Oil, Gas Activity Picks Up But Slow Start to the Year
• Bitcoin’s Success May Be Its Downfall
• Court Halts New Mining Permits in Argentina’s Key Lithium Region
• EU Warns of Heightened Somali Piracy Threat to Shipping
• S&P 500 closes lower on inflation worries, notches second straight weekly loss: Live updates
• Bitcoin falls below $70,000 in overnight sell-off: CNBC Crypto World
• Alaska’s ice road oil truckers are in a boom, and causing a backlash
• Fisker Shares Surge On Talks With Large Automaker Following Bankruptcy Fears
• McDonald’s blames global outage on third party
• 10-year Treasury yield sees biggest weekly advance since October after hot U.S. data

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 138 points or 0.35%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.30%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.29%,
• Gold $2,167 down $13.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $81 up $1.40,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.292% up 0.100 points,
• USD index $103.31 up $0.520,
• Bitcoin $69,710 down $3,4841 (4.75%), New Historic high 73,798.25

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were up 1.5% above February 2023 according to the US Census tables. However, using the St Louis Fed’s FRED database, retail sales are up 5.5% year-over-year in February 2024. Take your pick 🙂

In the week ending March 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 208,000, a decrease of 500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 3,750 from 212,250 to 208,500.

The Producer Price Index for final demand (PPI) advanced 1.6% for the 12 months ended in February 2024, the largest rise since moving up 1.8 percent for the 12 months ended September 2023. The rise in the PPI can be traced to oil prices.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Brent Soars Past $85 As IEA Recalculates Supply, Demand
• Gold Prices Soar Past $2,150 After Bullish Rally
• Fourth Russian Lukoil Exec Found Dead by Apparent Suicide
• U.S. Drivers Warned to Brace For Jump in Gasoline Prices
• The U.S. Is Betting Big on Small Nuclear Reactors
• Dow closes more than 100 points lower, snaps 3-day win streak after hot inflation report: Live updates
• This week provided a reminder that inflation isn’t going away anytime soon
• Bitcoin and ether fall as investors press pause on rally: CNBC Crypto World
• ‘Bad News’ Is Bad News For Stocks, Bonds, Crypto, & Gold
• How Overpaid Are State And Local Government Workers Compared To Private
• Long-term Treasury yields jump by most in a month after hot producer-price report

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 38 points or 0.10%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.54%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.19%,
• Gold $2,178 up $11.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 up $2.21,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.192% up 0.037 points,
• USD index $102.81 down $0.150,
• Bitcoin $73,679 up $2,031 2.81%), New Historic high 73,678.86

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Employer costs for employee compensation for civilian workers averaged $45.42 per hour worked in December 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries averaged $31.29, while benefit costs averaged $14.13.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• 40 Companies Join Race for Natural Hydrogen Deposits
• Can Tech Keep Up With AI’s Appetite for Energy?
• Japan Looks To Buddy Up to Allies for LNG Supply Post-2030
• Oil Gains Nearly 2% on US Inventory Draw, Fear of Supply Disruptions
• Another Sanctioned Russian Tanker Set to Offload Oil Cargo in China
• 59% of Investors Concerned About Greenwashing in Financial Industry
• S&P 500, Nasdaq close lower Wednesday as Nvidia and tech sector falter: Live updates
• EV euphoria is dead. Automakers are scaling back or delaying their electric vehicle plans
• Elon Musk cancels X partnership with former CNN anchor Don Lemon after interview
• A look inside the Chinese cyber threat at the biggest ports in US
• Dow ekes out third straight day of gains, S&P 500 slips following its 17th record high this year
• 2-year Treasury yield ends at nearly two-week high a day after CPI inflation data

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 236 points or 0.61%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.54%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.12%,
• Gold $2,162 down $26.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $78 down $0.15,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.155% up 0.051 points,
• USD index $102.94 up $0.070,
• Bitcoin $71,382 up $615 (0.85%), New Historic high 72,960.46

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 3.2% year-over-year in February 2024 before seasonal adjustment – this is up from 3.1% the previous month. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.8% over the last 12 months – slightly down from the 3.9% of the previous month. Note that the Federal Reserve uses the PCE price index as its primary measure of inflation – and this index will be released later this month. My position is that there are forces that will not allow inflation to fall further toward the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2.0%. Indexes that increased in February include shelter, airline fares, motor vehicle insurance, apparel, and recreation. The index for personal care and the index for household furnishings and operations were among those that decreased over the month.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Driving Activity to Reach All-Time Highs But Gasoline Consumption Seen Flat
• EIA Raises Crude Oil Price Outlook
• AI, Bitcoin And Clean Energy Boom Are Straining U.S. Power Supply
• Oil Markets Await a Shift in Sentiment
• Inside the organized crime rings plaguing retailers including Ulta, T.J. Maxx and Walgreens
• Dow jumps more than 200 points, S&P 500 pops 1% for new closing high as Nvidia resurges: Live updates
• Boeing’s Max problems shift growth plans at major airline customers
• Here’s the inflation breakdown for February 2024 — in one chart
• Bitcoin hits another record as volatility hovers at 2024 high: CNBC Crypto World
• More than a fifth of adults not looking for work
• Boeing whistleblower found dead in US
• Treasury yields end at one-week highs after February’s CPI inflation report
• Boeing’s February deliveries slow down amid Max uncertainty

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 47 points or 0.12%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.41%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.11%,
• Gold $2,188 up $2.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $0.08,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.096% up 0.008 points,
• USD index $102.85 up $0.140,
• Bitcoin $71,996 up $2,483 (3.57%), New Historic high 72,884.73

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No releases today

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• China’s EV Exports Soar Despite Domestic Sales Slowdown
• Mined Diamond Industry Faces Turmoil as Lab-Grown Gems Capture Market
• U.S. Remains World’s Largest Oil Producer for Sixth Year in a Row
• Gold Continues To Climb As Fed Hints at Rate Cuts
• Shell’s LNG Trading Head to Step Down Weeks After Posting $2.4 Billion Profit
• U.S. Gasoline Prices Rise for the Second Consecutive Week
• S&P 500 closes lower for a second session as tech-fueled rally cools: Live updates
• A key inflation reading is due out Tuesday morning. Here’s what to expect
• ETFs have brought big price swings back to bitcoin but could still help dampen volatility in the long term
• Bitcoin rises to another record, ether breaks through $4,000
• Bitcoin breaks through $72,000 to hit fresh record: CNBC Crypto World
• Dow ekes out gain ahead of critical inflation data due this week
• 2- and 10-year Treasury yields jump by most in a week ahead of Tuesday’s CPI data

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 69 points or 0.18%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.16%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.65%,
• Gold $2,185 up $19.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $78 down $1.05,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.079% down 0.013 points,
• USD index $102.74 down $0.080,
• Bitcoin $69,225 up $1,822 (2.69%), New Historic high 70,136.33
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -7 to 622 Canada -6 to 225

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Significant job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing. Note that the aggregate weekly hours worked is only 1% higher than one year ago while non-farm total employment is up 1.8%. There is a huge discrepancy between the household survey (which shows employment dropped by 184,000) whilst the establishment survey (which showed the headlines’s 275,000 employment gain). The household survey is used to determine the unemployment rate, so the result of a drop in the employment level combined with the 150,000 gain in the workforce is the reason for the rise in the unemployment rate. Yah just cannot look to closely at the employment report because the disconnects will drive you crazy. Overall, the trend of smaller employment gains every month remains in play.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Capture Oil Tanker Amid Sanctions Dispute
• U.S. Oil, Gas Drilling Activity Dips
• State Utility Expects China’s Coal Imports to Stay Flat This Year
• Oil Prices Remain Rangebound Despite Extension of OPEC+ Cuts
• Nasdaq drops 1% Friday as Nvidia tumbles, Dow closes out worst week since October: Live updates
• TikTok takes center stage in 2024 elections as candidates try to ban app while some are using it
• Nvidia is one of the most overbought stocks on Wall Street after this week’s massive rally
• Bitcoin briefly rises above $70,000 to another new all-time high: CNBC Crypto World
• What Dollarization Says About Returning To The Gold Standard
• US jobless rate hits highest in two years
• Oil prices end lower after U.S. jobs report, posting a loss for the week
• Bitcoin bulls eye $100,000 as the next level before its halving. Here’s what’s driving the crypto’s rally.

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 130 points or 0.34%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.51%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.03%,
• Gold $2,167 up $8.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $79 down $0.16,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.092% down 0.012 points,
• USD index $102.82 down $0.550,
• Bitcoin $67,690 up $415 (0.62%), All time high 68,990.90

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

According to NFIB’s monthly jobs report, 37% (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported jobs openings they could not fill in the current period, down two points from January and the lowest reading since January 2021. The percent of small business owners reporting labor quality as their top small business operating problem declined five points from January to 16%, the lowest reading since April 2020. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

Job openings among small businesses decreased in February to pre-pandemic levels. Employment activity has lessened somewhat as it becomes easier for owners to find qualified workers. Even with this slowdown, labor demand remains strong.

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.6 percent year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2023 whilst unit labor costs increased 2.5% year-over-year. So overall, there is no growth due to the unchanged productivity/cost relationship.

U.S.-based employers announced 84,638 job cuts in February, up 3% from the 82,307 cuts announced one month prior. It is 9% higher than the 77,770 cuts announced in the same month in 2023. Economically it means very little except a higher job cuts rate is usually indicative of a slowing economy.

CoreLogic shows U.S. homeowners with mortgages (roughly 62% of all properties*) have seen their equity increase by a total of $1.3 trillion since the fourth quarter of 2022, a gain of 8.6% year over year. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the total number of mortgaged residential properties with negative equity decreased by 1.1%  from the third quarter of 2023, representing 1 million homes, or 1.8% of all mortgaged properties.

January 2024 exports were up 2.0% year-over-year, imports were up 0.1%, whilst the trade balance improved (which means it decreased) 4.1% year-over-year. As the import and export prices have declined year-over-year – the growth in trade was larger than it appears (meaning the US and world economies are growing).

In the week ending March 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 212,250, a decrease of 750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 212,500 to 213,000.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Venezuela’s State-Run Refiner Sees Profit Tumble 81%
• SpaceX-Backed Flying Car Startup Gets FAA Nod
• Central Banks Boost Gold Reserves to Diversify from the Dollar
• Texas Wildfires Underscore Increasing Risk for Utilities
• Standard Chartered: OPEC’s Latest Move Is Bullish
• EU to Quit Treaty That Allows Oil Firms to Sue Governments Over Climate Policies
• S&P 500 jumps 1% for fresh closing record, Nasdaq pops 1.5% to touch all-time high: Live updates
• Powell says the Fed is ‘not far’ from the point of cutting interest rates
• The stock market tailwind Goldman sees growing to $1 trillion in 2025 and how to play it
• Leaked Hacking Files Spur Concerns Of China Weakening US For War
• U.S. oil prices end lower on talk of adequate global supplies
• Bitcoin’s fair value is $35,000 — but who’s counting?

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.