25 Apr 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Dow Gapped Down Over 400 Points At The Opening Bell Over GDP And Inflation Concerns, Finally Closing Higher, But Remaining In The Red

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 375 points or 0.98%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.64%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.46%,
  • Gold $2,345 up $6.00,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $84 up $0.94,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.704% up 0.050 points,
  • USD index $105.58 down $0.280,
  • Bitcoin $64,826 up $586 (0.61%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – April 2024 Economic Forecast: Economy Marginally Improving But Growth Will Be Weak


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The number of CEO changes at U.S. companies fell 27% to 180 in March 2024, from the record-high 248 in February. It is up 29% from the 139 CEO exits recorded in the same month last year. March’s total is the highest for the month since the firm began tracking CEO exits in 2002. In the first quarter, 622 CEOs have announced their departures, the highest quarterly total on record. It is up 49% from the 418 exits in the first quarter of last year, and up 27% from the 489 CEO exits which occurred in the previous quarter. Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. added:

C-Level leaders have had an incredibly challenging few years, and are transitioning out of their roles, whether for new opportunities or to get fresh starts elsewhere.

The advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024 – which is a fairly weak performance. However, I think this headline view is bogus as I believe year-over-year analysis provides the proper prospective. 1Q2024 growth was 3.0% year-over-year, and is only slightly lower than 4Q2024’s 3.1% and higher than 3Q2024’s 2.9%. Gross private domestic investment was very strong in 1Q2024 but was dragged down by goods purchases. As real GDP is adjusted for inflation, note that inflation price index only marginally weakened from last quarter’s 2.4% to 2.3% in 1Q2024.

The Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity fell again in April 2024, and expectations for future activity remained flat. Prices for raw materials grew at a steady pace while finished product prices stayed the same, increasing their spread. The month-over-month composite index was -8 in April, down from -7 in March and -4 in February. Manufacturing is far from a bright spot in the current economy.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – with year-over-year growth up 0.1%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated:

March’s Pending Home Sales Index – at 78.2 – marks the best performance in a year, but it still remains in a fairly narrow range over the last 12 months without a measurable breakout. Meaningful gains will only occur with declining mortgage rates and rising inventory.

In the week ending April 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 213,250, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 214,500.

In February 2024, 2.8% of all mortgages in the U.S. were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure), down year-over-year from February 2023 and unchanged month over month from January 2024. Molly Boesel, Principal Economist for CoreLogic added:

The U.S. delinquency rate fell from a year earlier for the first time in six months in February, indicating that mortgage performance remains strong. The decrease in delinquencies was driven by the decline in the share of mortgages that were six months or more past due, a number that has been consistently shrinking and fell to its lowest level in 15 years in February. As later-stage delinquencies decrease, the share of mortgages in foreclosure remained at 0.3% in February, where it has been since March 2022 and only slightly higher than the all-time low.

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24 Apr 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Stagnated Markets Traded Back And Forth The Unchanged Line To Finally Close Mixed And The S&P 500 Flat

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 43 points or 0.11%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.10%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.02%,
  • Gold $2,332 down $10.20,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $83 down $0.42,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.646% up 0.048 points,
  • USD index $105.81 up $0.130,
  • Bitcoin $64,050 down $2,495 (3.78%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – April 2024 Economic Forecast: Economy Marginally Improving But Growth Will Be Weak


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in March 2024 increased by 1.3% year-over-year (-1.5% inflation adjusted). Honestly, this report highlights the weakness in capital goods manufacturing in the U.S.  Durable goods new orders are weak in every category.

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23 Apr 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Strong Earnings Push Markets Higher, S&P 500 Surges Over One Percent In The Green, Led By Nasdaq, All Closing Higher Near Session Highs

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 264 points or 0.69%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.59%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.20%,
  • Gold $2,337 down $9.70,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $83 up $1.43,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.602% down 0.021 points,
  • USD index $105.69 down $0.390,
  • Bitcoin $66,431 up $42 (0.05%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – April 2024 Economic Forecast: Economy Marginally Improving But Growth Will Be Weak


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Sales of new single‐family houses in March 2024 is 8.3% above March 2023. The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2024 was $430,700. The average sales price was $524,800.
The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March was 477,000. This represents a supply of 8.3 months at the current sales rate. New home sales have been a bright spot in the economy.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing activity remained slow in April 2024. The composite manufacturing index increased from −11 in March to −7 in April. Of its three component indexes, shipments increased from −14 to −10, new orders increased from −17 to −9, and employment fell from 0 to −2. Manufacturing is far from a bright spot in the current economy.

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22 Apr 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Small Cap Indexes Break Six Session Losses, Markets Close Sharply Higher

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 254 points or 0.67%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.11%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.87%,
  • Gold $2,343 up $70.70,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $83 up $0.12,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.617% up 0.002 points,
  • USD index $106.13 down $0.030,
  • Bitcoin $66,544 up $1,803 (2.78%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – April 2024 Economic Forecast: Economy Marginally Improving But Growth Will Be Weak


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.19 in March 2024 from –0.28 in February. The CFNAI-MA3 is used for economic forecasting – and is my favorite coincident index. A zero value for the CFNAI has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth which the current values indicate soft growth. In March, Fifty indicators improved from February to March, while 35 indicators deteriorated.

 

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19 Apr 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Small Caps Nosedive, While The Dow Remained Above The Unchanged Line During The Entire Session, Marking The Sixth Down Session For The S&P 500

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 211 points or 0.56%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 2.05%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.88%,
  • Gold $2,403 up $4.80,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $83 up $0.48,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.621% down 0.024 points,
  • EUR/USD index $1.065 up $0.001,
  • Bitcoin $64,299 up $921 (1.45%), – Historic high 73,798.25
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +2 to 619 Canada -14 to 127

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – April 2024 Economic Forecast: Economy Marginally Improving But Growth Will Be Weak


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No releases today

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18 Apr 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The S&P 500 Suffered Its Fifth Day In The Red Closing Down With The Nasdaq Down And The Dow Fractionally Higher In The Green

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 22 points or 0.06%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.52%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.22%,
  • Gold $2,396 up $7.00,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $83 up $0.05,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.625% up 0.052 points,
  • USD index $106.16 up $0.210,
  • Bitcoin $63,554 up $2,462 (3.93%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – April 2024 Economic Forecast: Economy Marginally Improving But Growth Will Be Weak


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Philly Fed Manufacturing survey shows activity in the region continued to expand this month with the diffusion index for current general activity rose 12 points to 15.5 in April, its third consecutive positive reading and highest reading since April 2022. The survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all rose. However, the employment index remained negative. Both price indexes continue to suggest overall price increases. Most future activity indicators declined but continue to suggest that firms expect growth over the next six months. Historically, the Philly Fed Manufacturing survey has been the most positive of all the regional fed manufacturing surveys, and it likely that manufacturing has been contracting for so long that year-over-year comparisons will shortly be positive.

Existing-home sales fell 3.7% year-over-year as affordability continues to take its toll on existing homes. The median existing-home sales price rose 4.8% from March 2023. The inventory of unsold existing homes is 3.2 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated:

Though rebounding from cyclical lows, home sales are stuck because interest rates have not made any major moves. There are nearly six million more jobs now compared to pre-COVID highs, which suggests more aspiring home buyers exist in the market.

In the week ending April 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week
moving average was 214,500, unchanged from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was
revised up by 250 from 214,250 to 214,500.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.3 percent in March 2024 to 102.4 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.2 percent in February. Over the six-month period between September 2023 and March 2024, the LEI contracted by 2.2 percent—a smaller decrease than the 3.4 percent decline over the previous six months. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board added:

February’s uptick in the U.S. LEI proved to be ephemeral as the Index posted a decline in March. Negative contributions from the yield spread, new building permits, consumers’ outlook on business conditions, new orders, and initial unemployment insurance claims drove March’s decline. The LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates remain negative, but the pace of contraction has slowed. Overall, the Index points to a fragile—even if not recessionary—outlook for the U.S. economy. Indeed, rising consumer debt, elevated interest rates, and persistent inflation pressures continue to pose risks to economic activity in 2024. The Conference Board forecasts GDP growth to cool after the rapid expansion in the second half of 2023. As consumer spending slows, US GDP growth is expected to moderate over Q2 and Q3 of this year.

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17 Apr 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Feds Expected Rate-Cuts Push Markets Down Into The Red, Closing Near Session Lows

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 46 points or 0.12%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.15%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.58%,
  • Gold $2,388 down $19.40,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $83 down $2.60,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.659% down 0.031 points,
  • USD index $105.83 down $0.374,
  • Bitcoin $61,116 down $1,696 (2.68%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – April 2024 Economic Forecast: Economy Marginally Improving But Growth Will Be Weak


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach – which handle 40% of all container imports into the U.S. – show imports increased 14% year-over-year whilst exports increased 8% year-over-year. The import growth shows that the economy is gaining steam, but consider that imports remain below the pre-pandemic peaks.

According to the April 2024 Beige Book:

Overall economic activity expanded slightly, on balance, since late February. Ten out of twelve Districts experienced either slight or modest economic growth—up from eight in the previous report, while the other two reported no changes in activity. Consumer spending barely increased overall, but reports were quite mixed across Districts and spending categories. Several reports mentioned weakness in discretionary spending, as consumers’ price sensitivity remained elevated. Auto spending was buoyed notably in some Districts by improved inventories and dealer incentives, but sales remained sluggish in other Districts. Tourism activity increased modestly, on average, but reports varied widely. Manufacturing activity declined slightly, as only three Districts reported growth in that sector. Contacts reported slight increases in nonfinancial services activity, on average, and bank lending was roughly flat overall. Residential construction increased a little, on average, and home sales strengthened in most Districts. In contrast, nonresidential construction was flat, and commercial real estate leasing fell slightly. The economic outlook among contacts was cautiously optimistic, on balance.

Note that the Beige Book is an anecdotal report published by the United States Federal Reserve Board that summarizes economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. It’s also known as the Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District. The report is published eight times a year, before the Federal Open Market Committee meets.

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16 Apr 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Markets Opened Mixed, Traded Mostly Sideways In The Red, Finally Closing Mixed In Last Minute Trading

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 64 points or 0.17%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.12%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.21%,
  • Gold $2,407 up $23.60,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $85 down $0.04,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.659% up 0.031 points,
  • USD index $106.36 up $0.150,
  • Bitcoin $62,802 down $519 (0.82%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – April 2024 Economic Forecast: Economy Marginally Improving But Growth Will Be Weak


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in March 2024 were 1.5 above March 2023. Privately‐owned housing starts were 4.3% below March 2023. Privately‐owned housing completions were 3.9% below March 2023. The bright spot in the economy (residential housing) appears to be currently slowing.

Industrial production slightly improved but remains down 0.001% year-over-year with components manufacturing up 1.0% year-over-year), mining down 2.0% year-over-year, and utilities down 3.1% year-over-year. This is the first month this year that manufacturing showed a positive year-over-year growth.

U.S. single-family rents rose by 3.4% year over year in February 2024, the strongest growth recorded in 10 months. Molly Boesel, principal economist for CoreLogic added:

Single-family rent growth regained strength in February, posting the highest annual appreciation since April 2023. Monthly rent growth also picked up in February and was higher than what is typically recorded in winter months. Lower-priced properties had the smallest annual rent growth in February, which should be welcome news to renters. However, properties in this price range have seen gains of more than 30% over the past four years, a slightly larger increase than those in the higher-priced range.

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15 Apr 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: After A Weekend Of Negative World News, Wall Street Opened Sharply Higher, Then began Trading Lower, Closing Moderately Down In The Red At Session Lows

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 248 points or 0.65%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.79%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 1.20%,
  • Gold $2,4021 up $28.30,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $86 down $0.13,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.616% up 0.056 points,
  • USD index $106.19 up $0.117,
  • Bitcoin $63,512 down $658 (1.05%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – April 2024 Economic Forecast: Economy Marginally Improving But Growth Will Be Weak


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2024 was up 2.4% above March 2023 (not seasonally adjusted as it is a year-over-year calculation)  – and up 0.1% inflation adjusted. The headline numbers which showed a +0.7% month-over-month growth distorts the true growth picture when in fact retail sales is not growing year-over-year when inflation is considered.

The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey Business activity continued to decline in April 2024. The headline general business conditions index rose seven points but remained below zero at -14.3. New orders and shipments both declined significantly, and unfilled orders continued to shrink. My position is that manufacturing in the U.S. remains in a recession.

 

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12 Apr 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Markets Gapped Sharply Down At The Opening Bell, Continued To Trend Lower, Finally Closing Near Session Lows

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 476 points or 1.24%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.62%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 1.46%,
  • Gold $2,361 down $11.90,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $86 up $0.48,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.520% down 0.056 points,
  • USD index $106.03 up $0.750,
  • Bitcoin $66,994 down $3,333 (4.84%), – Historic high 73,798.25
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -3 to 617 Canada +5 to 141

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – April 2024 Economic Forecast: Economy Marginally Improving But Growth Will Be Weak


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

I continue to suggest that inflationary pressures are not abating despite the spin from pundits who want the Fed to cut the federal funds rate. I study forces which cause inflation, and part of my reasoning in contained in my economic forecasts. Today, export and import price indices were released – and the disinflation in import prices has disappeared with growth now 0.4% year-over-year. The disinflation in import prices began over one year ago. 15% GDP in the US are imported goods and services – and 49% of all goods sold in the US are imported. One can now expect not only downward pressure on GDP (as imports are subtracted from GDP), but upward pressure from imports on inflation

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment moved sideways for the fourth straight month, as consumers perceived few meaningful developments in the economy. Since January, sentiment has remained remarkably steady within a very narrow 2.5 index point range, well under the 5 points necessary for a statistically significant difference in readings. Consumers perceived little change in the state of the economy since the start of the new year. Expectations over personal finances, business conditions, and labor markets have all been stable over the last four months. However, a slight uptick in inflation expectations in April reflects some frustration that the inflation slowdown may have stalled. Overall, consumers are reserving judgment about the economy in light of the upcoming election, which, in the view of many consumers, could have a substantial impact on the trajectory of the economy.

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