Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 162 points or 0.41%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.27%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.31%,
• Gold $2172 down $56,
• WTI crude oil settled at $82 up $1.38,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.249% up 0.031 points,
• USD index $104.22 up $0.22,
• Bitcoin $70,366 up $3,131

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.18 in February from –0.11 in January. Economic expansion has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value above –0.70 and a significant likelihood of an expansion has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value above +0.20. The CFNAI is my favorite coincident index. The bottom line here is that the economy is expanding, but is expanding  below the historical average for periods of expansion.

Sales of new single‐family houses in February 2024 were up 5.9% above February 2023. The median sales price of new houses sold in February 2024 was $400,500 – which is 7.6% lower than the price one year ago. The average sales price was $485,000. The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of February was 463,000. This represents a supply of 8.4 months at the current sales rate. New home sales remains a bright spot in the economy.

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey activity weakened in March after stabilizing in February. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell five points to -4.1, a reading that suggests a slight decline in output month over month. Manufacturing remains in a recession in the U.S.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Decentralized Renewable Energy Helps Ukraine Weather Russian Attacks
• Chip War Escalates as China Bans Intel, AMD Chips in Government Computers
• Russian Refinery Halts Half Its Capacity Following a Ukrainian Drone Attack
• Truth Social owner Trump Media will begin trading under DJT ticker Tuesday
• Boeing CEO to step down in broad management shake-up as 737 Max crisis weighs on aerospace giant
• Our Economy And Politics Are Broken
• Why Is The National Guard Being Deployed During The Great American Eclipse On April 8th?
• EV maker Lucid rallies after $1 billion investment by majority stockholder as it burns cash

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 305 points or 0.77%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.16%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.14%,
• Gold $2164 down $19.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $81 down $0.25,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.210% down 0.061 points,
• USD index $104.45 up $1.03,
• Bitcoin $63,780 down $1,700.
• Baker-Hughes rig count down 5 to 624

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

U.S. single-family rents posted a 2.6% annual gain in January 2024 according to CoreLogic’s monthly Single-Family Rent Index (SFRI), with Urban Honolulu taking the top sport for growth. However, despite January’s relatively moderate growth in rental costs, prices across the nation are up by almost 30% since early 2020. Molly Boesel, principal economist for CoreLogic stated:

While annual U.S. single-family rent growth was a moderate 2.6% in January, that increase built on years of above-trend annual gains. Furthermore, while rent growth is slowing, costs are still increasing across most of the country. The median rent on a three-bedroom property increased by over $100 in the past year and by more than $500 in the past three years.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Has Urged Ukraine To Stop Attacks on Russian Refineries
• Russian Diesel in Floating Storage Hits Highest Level Since 2017
• China Buys Up Russian Oil
• Will Waning Gasoline Demand Drag Oil Prices Down?
• Explaining the Market’s Reaction to Jerome Powell’s Speech
• Oil Industry Executives Say Oil Demand Is Beating Forecasts
• All Indian Refiners Now Reject Russian Crude Shipped by Sovcomflot Tankers
• Why a small China-made EV has global auto execs and politicians on edge
• “We Have Reached A Bottom”: Uranium Poised To Jump Again After 3 Month Correction
• Trump poised for billions as stock market deal passes

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 269 points or 0.68%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.20%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.32%,
• Gold $2192 up $21.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $81 down $0.24,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.271% down 0.001 points,
• USD index $104.04 up $0.20,
• Bitcoin $65,220 down $2,633

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Philly Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey edged down 2 points to 3.2 in March 2024. This is only the index’s fifth positive reading since May 2022. Nearly 24 percent of the firms reported increases in general activity this month, while 21 percent reported decreases; 52 percent reported no change. The index for new orders turned positive for the first time since October, rising from -5.2 in February to 5.4 in March. Historically, this index is an outlier versus other regional fed surveys in that its results are usually higher. I continue to state that manufacturing in the US remains in a recession.

In the week ending March 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 211,250, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 750 from 208,000 to 208,750.

Total existing-home sales slid 3.3% year-over-year. The median existing-home price for all housing types in February was $384,500, an increase of 5.7% from the prior year ($363,600). NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated:

Additional housing supply is helping to satisfy market demand. Housing demand has been on a steady rise due to population and job growth, though the actual timing of purchases will be determined by prevailing mortgage rates and wider inventory choices.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.1 percent in February 2024 to 102.8 (2016=100), following a 0.4 percent decline in January. At least the Conference Board is no longer forecasting a recession. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board stated:

The U.S. LEI rose in February 2024 for the first time since February 2022. Strength in weekly hours worked in manufacturing, stock prices, the Leading Credit Index™, and residential construction drove the LEI’s first monthly increase in two years. However, consumers’ expectations and the ISM® Index of New Orders have yet to recover, and the six- and twelve-month growth rates of the LEI remain negative. Despite February’s increase, the Index still suggests some headwinds to growth going forward. The Conference Board expects annualized US GDP growth to slow over the Q2 to Q3 2024 period, as rising consumer debt and elevated interest rates weigh on consumer spending.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Tokyo Tech Scientists Crack Hydrogen Storage Conundrum
• Taxpayer Money Funds EV Infrastructure Push Despite Slow Adoption
• Restored Import Tax Hits Russian Coal Sales to China
• EPA’s New Car Emission Standards Doom the Gasoline Car
• IEA Chief: No Chance of Hitting Climate Goals Without Nuclear Power
• European Power Giant Bets on U.S. Despite Possible Trump Presidency
• Republican Lawmakers Blame IEA for Straying From Energy Security Mission
• Auto prices are cooling, but ‘we’re never going back to the old normal,’ expert says. Here’s what car shoppers can expect
• “Freedom Bonds”: US Wants $50BN Bond For Ukraine Backed By Frozen Russian Assets
• Stock market’s post-Fed rally hides some worry about officials’ commitment to 2% inflation

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 401 points or 1.03%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.25%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.89%,
• Gold $2186 up $26.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $82 up $1.63,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.279% down 0.018 points,
• USD index $103.42 down $0.39,
• Bitcoin $65,795 up $3,889

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting concluded today with no adjustment to the federal funds rate as inflation remains above their 2.o% target although the economy and employment are strong. The Fed Chair Powell additionally communicated they expect up to 3 rate cuts this year. Not sure any of this makes sense as by their admission the economy is expanding which historically is coincident with raising (not cutting) the federal funds rate. Additionally, there are no signs yet that inflationary pressures have subsided. In any event, the market took the potential of rate cuts with gusto driving the markets to historical highs. The text of the meeting statement:

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Saudi Aramco To Expand Natural Gas Output Capacity by 60%
• Israel’s Gas Exports to Egypt Soar Despite Political Tensions
• Chinese Fuel Oil Imports Jumped by 21% in the First Two Months of the Year
• EPA issues new auto rules aimed at cutting carbon emissions, boosting electric vehicles and hybrids
• Israel Furious After Canada Votes To Halt Arms Exports To Tel Aviv
• Only 30% Of New Yorkers Are Happy With City’s Quality Of Life, 50% Plan On Leaving Within Five Years
• Fed Chair Powell Explains Why The Dots ‘Are Not A Forecast’, But…

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 320 points or 0.83%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.39%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.56%,
• Gold $2161 down $3.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $83 up $0.76,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.296% down 0.044 points,
• USD index $103.82 up $0.39,
• Bitcoin $63,047 down $3,664

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in February 2024 were 2.4% above February 2023.Privately‐owned housing starts 5.9% above February 2023. Privately‐owned housing completions were 9.6% above February 2023. New housing construction continues to be an economic bright spot.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Breakthrough Catalyst Turns Sewage Into Clean Energy
• Russia Promises To Defend Oil Infrastructure With Missiles
• Hot Inflation Data Raises Stakes for Tomorrow’s Fed Meeting
• Oil Gains Momentum as China’s Demand Outlook Improves
• India Buys More U.S. Oil
• Bitcoin Continues To Sink Despite Bullish Bets by Big Banks
• U.S. Aims to Restock Strategic Oil Reserves by Year-End
• Why EVs are causing a tire boom
• There Goes The Fed’s Inflation Target: Goldman Sees Terminal Rate 100bps Higher At 3.5%
• Netanyahu To Biden: “There’s No Way To Destroy Hamas Without Rafah Ground Op”

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 76 points or 0.20%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.82%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.63%,
• Gold $2163 up $1.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $83 up $1.85,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.332% up 0.028 points,
• USD index $103.61 up $0.18,
• Bitcoin $67,050 down $1,304,

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach move 40% of USA container volumes. In February 2024, imports surged 47% year-over-year whilst exports rose 14%. This suggests that the USA economy is improving and so is the international economy. However, as you can see from the graph below – the levels remain similar to those seen 10 years ago.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• China’s Solar Power Dominance Threatens Western Clean Energy Dreams
• Biden Charges Forward With Historic Auto Emission Crackdown
• Is a Copper Crisis Coming? Prices Hit New Highs on Smelter Cuts
• CNOOC Makes Another Major Oil Discovery Offshore China
• Nations Divided Over Fees on Shipping Industry Emissions
• Saudi Aramco CEO says energy transition is failing, world should abandon ‘fantasy’ of phasing out oil
• Bitcoin slips further below $68,000, adding to weekend losses
• Odds of a June rate cut by Fed slip below 50%, according to this gauge

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 191 points or 0.49%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.95%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.65%,
• Gold $2,160 down $7.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $81 down $0.25,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.308% up 0.010 points,
• USD index $103.44 up $0.080,
• Bitcoin $68,630 down $1,080 (1.68%), – Historic high 73,798.25
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +7 to 629 Canada -18 to 207

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Industrial production remained down 0.2% year-over-year in February 2024. Manufacturing subindex continued in negative territory at -0.4% year-over-year. Utilities subindex increased to 0.8% gain year-over-year, and the mining subindex declined but was still up 1.4% year-over-year. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector remained at 78.3 percent in February, a rate that is 1.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average. Manufacturing remains in a recession in the USA.

The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey for March 2024 showed the headline general business conditions index fell nineteen points to -20.9. Manufacturing remains in a recession in the USA.

Michigan Consumer sentiment moved little this month with a 0.4 index point decrease that is well within the margin of error, and thus sentiment has been steady and essentially unchanged since January 2024. Sentiment remained almost 25% above November 2023 and is currently halfway between the historic low reached during the peak of inflation in June 2022 and pre-pandemic readings. Small improvements in personal finances were offset by modest declines in expectations for business conditions. After strong gains between November 2023 and January 2024, consumer views have stabilized into a holding pattern; consumers perceived few signals that the economy is currently improving or deteriorating. Indeed, many are withholding judgment about the trajectory of the economy, particularly in the long term, pending the results of this November’s election.

U.S. import prices declined 0.8% year-over-year in February 2024. Prices for U.S. exports declined 1.8% year-over-year.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Bloomberg Survey: Brent To Exceed $80 By Year’s End
• U.S. Oil, Gas Activity Picks Up But Slow Start to the Year
• Bitcoin’s Success May Be Its Downfall
• Court Halts New Mining Permits in Argentina’s Key Lithium Region
• EU Warns of Heightened Somali Piracy Threat to Shipping
• S&P 500 closes lower on inflation worries, notches second straight weekly loss: Live updates
• Bitcoin falls below $70,000 in overnight sell-off: CNBC Crypto World
• Alaska’s ice road oil truckers are in a boom, and causing a backlash
• Fisker Shares Surge On Talks With Large Automaker Following Bankruptcy Fears
• McDonald’s blames global outage on third party
• 10-year Treasury yield sees biggest weekly advance since October after hot U.S. data

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 138 points or 0.35%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.30%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.29%,
• Gold $2,167 down $13.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $81 up $1.40,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.292% up 0.100 points,
• USD index $103.31 up $0.520,
• Bitcoin $69,710 down $3,4841 (4.75%), New Historic high 73,798.25

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were up 1.5% above February 2023 according to the US Census tables. However, using the St Louis Fed’s FRED database, retail sales are up 5.5% year-over-year in February 2024. Take your pick 🙂

In the week ending March 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 208,000, a decrease of 500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 3,750 from 212,250 to 208,500.

The Producer Price Index for final demand (PPI) advanced 1.6% for the 12 months ended in February 2024, the largest rise since moving up 1.8 percent for the 12 months ended September 2023. The rise in the PPI can be traced to oil prices.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Brent Soars Past $85 As IEA Recalculates Supply, Demand
• Gold Prices Soar Past $2,150 After Bullish Rally
• Fourth Russian Lukoil Exec Found Dead by Apparent Suicide
• U.S. Drivers Warned to Brace For Jump in Gasoline Prices
• The U.S. Is Betting Big on Small Nuclear Reactors
• Dow closes more than 100 points lower, snaps 3-day win streak after hot inflation report: Live updates
• This week provided a reminder that inflation isn’t going away anytime soon
• Bitcoin and ether fall as investors press pause on rally: CNBC Crypto World
• ‘Bad News’ Is Bad News For Stocks, Bonds, Crypto, & Gold
• How Overpaid Are State And Local Government Workers Compared To Private
• Long-term Treasury yields jump by most in a month after hot producer-price report

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 38 points or 0.10%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.54%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.19%,
• Gold $2,178 up $11.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 up $2.21,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.192% up 0.037 points,
• USD index $102.81 down $0.150,
• Bitcoin $73,679 up $2,031 2.81%), New Historic high 73,678.86

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Employer costs for employee compensation for civilian workers averaged $45.42 per hour worked in December 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries averaged $31.29, while benefit costs averaged $14.13.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• 40 Companies Join Race for Natural Hydrogen Deposits
• Can Tech Keep Up With AI’s Appetite for Energy?
• Japan Looks To Buddy Up to Allies for LNG Supply Post-2030
• Oil Gains Nearly 2% on US Inventory Draw, Fear of Supply Disruptions
• Another Sanctioned Russian Tanker Set to Offload Oil Cargo in China
• 59% of Investors Concerned About Greenwashing in Financial Industry
• S&P 500, Nasdaq close lower Wednesday as Nvidia and tech sector falter: Live updates
• EV euphoria is dead. Automakers are scaling back or delaying their electric vehicle plans
• Elon Musk cancels X partnership with former CNN anchor Don Lemon after interview
• A look inside the Chinese cyber threat at the biggest ports in US
• Dow ekes out third straight day of gains, S&P 500 slips following its 17th record high this year
• 2-year Treasury yield ends at nearly two-week high a day after CPI inflation data

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 236 points or 0.61%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.54%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.12%,
• Gold $2,162 down $26.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $78 down $0.15,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.155% up 0.051 points,
• USD index $102.94 up $0.070,
• Bitcoin $71,382 up $615 (0.85%), New Historic high 72,960.46

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 3.2% year-over-year in February 2024 before seasonal adjustment – this is up from 3.1% the previous month. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.8% over the last 12 months – slightly down from the 3.9% of the previous month. Note that the Federal Reserve uses the PCE price index as its primary measure of inflation – and this index will be released later this month. My position is that there are forces that will not allow inflation to fall further toward the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2.0%. Indexes that increased in February include shelter, airline fares, motor vehicle insurance, apparel, and recreation. The index for personal care and the index for household furnishings and operations were among those that decreased over the month.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Driving Activity to Reach All-Time Highs But Gasoline Consumption Seen Flat
• EIA Raises Crude Oil Price Outlook
• AI, Bitcoin And Clean Energy Boom Are Straining U.S. Power Supply
• Oil Markets Await a Shift in Sentiment
• Inside the organized crime rings plaguing retailers including Ulta, T.J. Maxx and Walgreens
• Dow jumps more than 200 points, S&P 500 pops 1% for new closing high as Nvidia resurges: Live updates
• Boeing’s Max problems shift growth plans at major airline customers
• Here’s the inflation breakdown for February 2024 — in one chart
• Bitcoin hits another record as volatility hovers at 2024 high: CNBC Crypto World
• More than a fifth of adults not looking for work
• Boeing whistleblower found dead in US
• Treasury yields end at one-week highs after February’s CPI inflation report
• Boeing’s February deliveries slow down amid Max uncertainty

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.