Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 606 points or 1.53%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.39%, (Closed at 16,732, New Historic high 16.996)
• S&P 500 closed down 0.74, ( Closed at 5,268, New Historic high 5,342)
• Gold $2,333 down $59.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 down $0.69,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.479 up 0.045 points,
• USD index $105.07 up $0.140,
• Bitcoin $66,640 down $3,097 (4.52%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

My favorite coincident indicator – the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three-month moving average, increased insignificantly to –0.07 in April 2024 from –0.08 in March. The three month moving average is used for economic forecasting as the monthly data is too volatile. Twenty of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in April, while 65 made negative contributions. Thirty indicators improved from March to April, while 54 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 18 made negative contributions. The bottom line, which is confirmed by anecdotal data, is that the economy is running through a soft patch right now. Having said that, there is little indication that the economy is heading towards a hard landing at this point.

Sales of new single-family houses in April 2024 were 7.7% below April 2023. The median sales price of new houses sold in April 2024 was $433,500. The average sales price was $505,700. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April was 480,000. This represents a supply of 9.1 months at the current sales rate. Residential sales has been a bright spot in the economy but lately sales have become more erratic – likely due to the high mortgage rates.

In the week ending May 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 219,750, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 217,750 to 218,000. There is no sign in the unemployment numbers of a slowing economy.

The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index month-over-month composite index was -2 in May 2024, up from -8 in April and -7 in March. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. The pace of decline slowed in paper, chemical, and fabricated metal manufacturing while activity expanded in printing, nonmetallic mineral, and furniture manufacturing. Manufacturing in the USA continues in a recession.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• China’s Iron Ore Imports Expected to Hit Record High This Year
• JPMorgan: Global AI Data Centers Will Consume Huge Amounts of Fresh Water
• China Performs Military Drills ‘Surrounding’ Taiwan As Warning To New President
• India Hit by Blackouts as Power Demand Soars During Heat Wave
• Gasoline Prices Ahead of Memorial Day Are 1% Higher Than a Year Ago
• Dow falls 600 points in worst day of 2024 as Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings fail to lift broader market: Live updates
• Auto insurance rates are jumping the most since the 1970s, but there could be relief soon
• Sudden container crunch sends ocean freight rates soaring, setting off global trade alarm bells
• Investing in Space: How the Pentagon is making use of AI with spy satellite data
• Dow transportation stocks are ‘area of potential concern’ for stock-market bulls
• The stock market’s entire return rests on a surprisingly small number of days

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 202 points or 0.51%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.18%, (Closed at 16,802, New Historic high 16.855)
• S&P 500 closed down 0.27,
• Gold $2,381 down $46.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 down $1.34,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.422 up 0.008 points,
• USD index $104.94 up $0.280,
• Bitcoin $69,619 up $147 (0.21%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The number of CEO changes at U.S. companies fell 30% to 126 in April, from 180 in March. It is down 14% from 147 CEO exits recorded in the same month last year. April’s total marks the first time in 14 months that CEO exits were lower than the corresponding month a year earlier. So far this year, 748 CEOs have announced their departures, the highest year-to-date total on record. It is up 32% from 565 exits that occurred during the same period last year, which was the previous year-to-date record. Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. stated:

Existing-home sales receded in April 2024. Total existing-home sales fell 1.9% year-over-year. Total housing inventorywas up 16.3% from one year ago. Unsold inventory sits at a 3.5-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.2 months in March and 3.0 months in April 2023. For homes priced $1 million or more, inventory and sales increased by 34% and 40%, respectively, from a year ago. The median existing-home price for all housing types in April was $407,600, an increase of 5.7% from the previous year ($385,800). All four U.S. regions registered price gains. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun added:

Home sales changed little overall, but the upper-end market is experiencing a sizable gain due to more supply coming onto the market. Home prices reaching a record high for the month of April is very good news for homeowners. However, the pace of price increases should taper off since more housing inventory is becoming available.

LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation’s container port traffic. In April 2024, container imports are up 19% year-over-year whilst exports are up 9% year-over-year. Still, container traffic remains slightly below pre-pandemic levels – but container traffic appears to be on a slightly improving trend line.

Much time was spent discussing inflation, according to the 01May2024 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes. Highlights of the meeting minutes:

… Participants observed that while inflation had eased over the past year, in recent months there had been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective. The recent monthly data had showed significant increases in components of both goods and services price inflation. In particular, inflation for core services excluding housing had moved up in the first quarter compared with the fourth quarter of last year, and prices of core goods posted their first three-month increase in several months.

… Participants noted that they continued to expect that inflation would return to 2 percent over the medium term. However, recent data had not increased their confidence in progress toward 2 percent and, accordingly, had suggested that the disinflation process would likely take longer than previously thought. 

… Participants assessed that demand and supply in the labor market, on net, were continuing to come into better balance, though at a slower rate. 

… High interest rates appeared to weigh on consumer durables purchases in the first quarter, and growth of business fixed investment remained modest. Despite the high interest rates, residential investment grew more strongly in the first quarter than its modest pace in the second half of last year.

… Participants noted the important influence of productivity growth for the economic outlook. Some participants suggested that the recent increase in productivity growth might not persist because it reflected one-time adjustments to the level of productivity or reflected continued elevated volatility in the data over the past several years. A few participants commented that higher productivity growth might be sustained by the incorporation of technologies such as artificial intelligence into existing business operations or by high rates of new business formation in the technology sector.

… A number of participants judged that consumption growth was likely to moderate this year, as growth in labor income was expected to slow and the financial positions of many households were expected to weaken. Many participants noted signs that the finances of low- and moderate-income households were increasingly coming under pressure, which these participants saw as a downside risk to the outlook for consumption. 

… Participants discussed the risks and uncertainties around the economic outlook. They generally noted their uncertainty about the persistence of inflation and agreed that recent data had not increased their confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent. Some participants pointed to geopolitical events or other factors resulting in more severe supply bottlenecks or higher shipping costs, which could put upward pressure on prices and weigh on economic growth. The possibility that geopolitical events could generate commodity price increases was also seen as an upside risk to inflation. 

… participants who commented noted vulnerabilities to the financial system that they assessed warranted monitoring. Participants discussed a range of risks emanating from the banking sector, including unrealized losses on assets resulting from the rise in longer-term yields, high CRE exposure, significant reliance by some banks on uninsured deposits, cyber threats, or increased financial interconnections among banks.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• China’s Rapid Nuclear Expansion Is Threatening U.S. Dominance in the Sector
• Oil Prices Maintain Losing Streak on Inflation Confusion
• The Harsh Truth About Space Mining and Direct Air Capture
• EIA Confirms Small Crude Inventory Build, Gasoline Draw
• Oil Prices Remain Rangebound as Demand Concerns Mount
• Federal Reserve minutes indicate worries over lack of progress on inflation
• GM all-electric Chevy Equinox goes on sale as the latest test for EV production and demand
• Why Target and McDonald’s are cutting prices and offering deals
• Average U.S. vehicle age hits record 12.6 years as high prices force people to keep them longer
• Illegals Believe Trump Is Going To Win So They’re Surging The Border Now; Report
• ‘Hawkish’ FOMC Minutes Show ‘Various’ Members Willing To Tighten More, Fear Financial Conditions ‘Too Easy’
• Inflation rate falls to lowest in almost three years
• 2-year Treasury yield ends at three-week high after Fed minutes raise possibility of another rate hike

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 66 points or 0.17%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.22%, (Closed at 16,833, New Historic high 16,839)
• S&P 500 closed up 0.25%,
• Gold $2,428 down $10.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $79 down $0.74,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.414 down 0.023 points,
• USD index $104.64 up $0.07,
• Bitcoin $69,532 down $127 (0.18%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Single-Family Rent Index (SFRI) shows single-family rent gains inched up again to 3.4% on an annual basis in March 2024, with the median monthly cost for a U.S. three-bedroom home at $2,052 in February. Of the 20 metro areas CoreLogic tracks, only six posted rental prices that were less expensive than the national average. Three metros in the South showed annual declines, while coastal job hubs again led for rent growth. This indicates that Americans who rent in expensive metros can shoulder the additional cost burden, thanks to higher wages in many job sectors and a U.S. unemployment rate that has remained below 4% for more than two years. Molly Boesel, principal economist for CoreLogic stated:

U.S. single-family rent growth strengthened overall in March, though some weaknesses are revealed in the latest numbers. Overbuilt areas, such as Austin, Texas continued to soften, decreasing by 3.5% annually in March. And for the first time in 14 years, single-family, attached properties posted a year-over-year decline. The continued strength in single-family detached rents indicates that potential homebuyers who are priced out of the home-purchase market are choosing to rent similar alternatives.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• China’s Solar Executives Fear Western Trade Barriers Could Jeopardize Exports
• U.S. Department of Energy to Release 1 Million Barrels of Gasoline from Northeas
• Net-Zero Comes With Insane $215 Trillion Price Tag
• Are Hybrids and EVs Incompatible?
• Americans Set for Near-Record Summer Road Trips as Gasoline Prices Fall
• South Africa Is Set to Run Coal Power Plants for Longer Than Planned
• S&P 500, Nasdaq rise on Tuesday to close at fresh records: Live updates
• Pixar is laying off 14% of its workforce as Disney scales back content
• Fed Governor Waller wants ‘several months’ of good inflation data before lowering rates
• EPA’s Clean Power Plan Rule Prioritizes Net-Zero Over Grid Reliability
• Biden Drains Entire Northeast Gasoline Reserve In Bid To Lower Gas Prices As He Trails Trump By Double Digits
• California Governor Escalates War On Gasoline Impacting Neighboring States
• Comcast says its new ‘StreamSaver’ bundle will save customers close to $100 a year — here’s how
• Bond king Jeffrey Gundlach still sees a U.S. recession coming. Here’s when.

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 196 points or 0.49%, (Closed at 39,808, New Historic high 40.076)
• Nasdaq closed up 0.65%, ( New Historic high 16.824)
• S&P 500 closed up 0.09%,
• Gold $2,433 up $15.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 down $0.32,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.443 up 0.023 points,
• USD index $104.61 up $0.160,
• Bitcoin $70,186 up $3,962 (5.88%), – Historic high 73,798.25

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No releases today

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Iraq, China Sign Deal for New Gas Field Development
• American Gasoline Prices Fall for 4th Straight Week
• BYD Set to Supply London’s Electric Double-Decker Buses
• Millennials Drive EV Adoption in the U.S.
• ADNOC Buys 12% Stake in Rio Grande LNG
• Microsoft announces new PCs with AI chips from Qualcomm
• Nasdaq closes at a record on Monday as Nvidia shares rise 2%: Live updates
• Are consumers pulling back on spending? It depends on which CEO you ask
• Summer interest rate cut possible, says Bank deputy
• Wall Street strategists rush to revise their S&P 500 targets as stocks hit fresh records. Here’s what they see happening.
• Global stocks hit record highs as more countries join in the rally

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 165 points or 0.34%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.07%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.12%,
• Gold $2,419 up $33.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 up $0.77,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.422 up 0.045 points,
• EUR/USD index $1.084 up $0.001,
• Bitcoin $66,905 up $1,620 (2.49%),
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +1 to 604 Canada -2 to 114

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.6 percent in April 2024 to 101.8 (2016=100), after decreasing by 0.3 percent in March. Over the six-month period between October 2023 and April 2024, the LEI contracted by 1.9 percent—a smaller decrease than its 3.5 percent decline over the previous six months. The problem with this index is that it has been saying that the economy was falling into the toilet for over one year – I think they have been crying wolf for too long. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board stated:

Another decline in the U.S. LEI confirms that softer economic conditions lay ahead. Deterioration in consumers’ outlook on business conditions, weaker new orders, a negative yield spread, and a drop in new building permits fueled April’s decline. In addition, stock prices contributed negatively for the first time since October of last year. While the LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates no longer signal a forthcoming recession, they still point to serious headwinds to growth ahead. Indeed, elevated inflation, high interest rates, rising household debt, and depleted pandemic savings are all expected to continue weighing on the US economy in 2024. As a result, we project that real GDP growth will slow to under 1 percent over the Q2 to Q3 2024 period.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Vertical Axis Wind Turbines Redefined by Machine Learning
• Precious Metals Markets Slide Sideways
• Oil, Gas Activity in U.S. Holds Steady
• China’s Apparent Oil Demand Dips in April for First Yearly Decline Since 2022
• Republicans Pressure Biden to Deliver Weapons to Israel
• Groundhog Day for OPEC+
• As Tesla layoffs continue, here are 600 jobs the company cut in California
• OpenAI dissolves team focused on long-term AI risks, less than one year after announcing it
• GameStop shares fall 20% after it files to sell additional stock, says first quarter sales dropped
• Bitcoin breaks six-week losing streak, climbs to $67,000: CNBC Crypto World
• Vitalik Buterin Says OpenAI’s GPT-4 Has Passed The ‘Turing Test’
• Fewer crackers in Ritz boxes but price remains same
• 30-year Treasury yield sees 3rd straight weekly decline after data indicate ‘serious headwinds’ for U.S. economy

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 350 points or 0.88%, ( New high 39,935)
• Nasdaq closed up 1.49%, ( New high 16.750)
• S&P 500 closed up 1.17%, ( New high 5,312)
• Gold $2,393 up $32.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $79 up $0.84,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.346 down 0.099 points,
• USD index $104.32 down $0.69,
• Bitcoin $65,813 up $4,252 (6.91%), – Historic high 73,798.25

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2024 was up 3.0% above April 2023 – 1.8% year-over-year inflation adjusted. This shows the economy is muddling along – and retail sales is not driving a stronger economy. Growth this month is average for the past 12 months.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) over the last 12 month increased 3.4% – down from last month’s 3.5% year-over-year growth. The index for shelter rose in April, as did the index for gasoline. Combined, these two indexes contributed heavily to inflation. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.6% over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 2.6% for the 12 months ending April. The food index increased 2.2% over the last year. The Federal Reserve prefers to use the inflation index associated with the BEA’s consumer spending.

The May 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey shows the headline general business conditions index was little changed at -15.6. New orders declined significantly, while shipments held steady. Unfilled orders continued to decline. Delivery times shortened, and inventories were little changed. Labor market conditions remained weak, with employment and hours worked continuing to move lower. The pace of input and selling price increases moderated slightly. Though firms expect conditions to improve over the next six months, optimism was subdued.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Texas Freeport LNG Reportedly Operating At Full Capacity
• North Korean-Iranian Military Cooperation Raises Alarm in the West
• Slovak PM Fights for Life After Assassination Attempt
• Qatar Believes The World Will Need More LNG Projects after 2030
• The U.S. Battery Boom Is Revolutionizing Renewable Energy
• The IEA Has Cut Its Oil Demand Growth Forecast for 2024
• S&P 500 jumps 1% to post record close, ending session above 5,300 for the first time: Live updates
• Biden’s EV tariffs may not be enough to stave off the threat of Chinese vehicles in the U.S.
• Netflix ad-supported tier has 40 million monthly users, nearly double previous count
• Dell surges 11% on optimism it has secured big AI server orders
• ‘We have to do what we have to do’: Israel’s Netanyahu stands firm on Rafah offensive despite U.S. tensions
• April Cass Data Shows No Improvement In Freight Demand
• Treasury yields end at lowest levels in more than a month after April CPI data

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 127 points or 0.32%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.75%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.48%,
• Gold $2,362 up $18.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $78 down $0.99,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.449 down 0.032 points,
• USD index $105.02 down $0.20,
• Bitcoin $61,547 down $1,500 (2.38%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index rose by 1.2 points in April to 89.7, marking the first increase of this year but the 28^th consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. Twenty-two percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in their business, down three points from March but still the number one problem for small business owners. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB Chief Economist stated:

Cost pressures remain the top issue for small business owners, including historically high levels of owners raising compensation to keep and attract employees. Overall, small business owners remain historically very pessimistic as they continue to navigate these challenges. Owners are dealing with a rising level of uncertainty but will continue to do what they do best – serve their customers.

Inflation continued in the Producer Price Index which was 2.2% year-over-year in April 2024 – up from 1.8% in March. Growth continued in both services and goods in the PPI. Tomorrow, the Consumer Price Index for April will be released with our estimate being 3.6% year-over-year (and the market consensus is 3.4% year-over-year.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Putin’s Cabinet Shakeup Reflects Shift in Strategy As Ukraine War Persists
• The Controversy That Nearly Destroyed OPEC Has Resurfaced
• Inflation Fears Keep Oil Prices Suppressed
• Chevron Surpasses Tesla as the Most Shorted U.S. Large-Cap Stock
• U.S. Gasoline Prices Set for Slight Drop Ahead of Memorial Day
• Electric Vehicles Lose Market Share in the U.S. as Sales Decline
• Google rolls out its most powerful AI models as competition from OpenAI heats up
• Fed Chair Powell says inflation has been higher than thought, expects rates to hold steady
• Nasdaq jumps to record close, Dow adds more than 100 points ahead of consumer inflation report: Live updates
• Walmart is laying off, relocating hundreds of corporate workers across the country. Read the memo
• Another “Behemoth Solar Flare” Sparks Radio Blackout Across North America
• ‘Bidenomics’ 2.0 or ‘Trumponomics’ 2.0? Both would hurt trade and growth.
• Treasury yields fall for second straight session after PPI revision for March

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.