December 2022 Economic Forecast: Our Indicators Predict Continued Moderation Of Economic Growth

November 30, 2022Posted ineconomy, macroeconomicsNo Comments

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index slowed again this month and continues to show the lowest level of growth since the 2020 recession. The ongoing weakness of transport, and imports continues to weigh on our economic forecast. There is no question we live in interesting economic times as the future economic impacts of inflation and COVID are unpredictable. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

Inflation Dynamics Shows Its Ugly Head And Will Be With Us For Some Time

March 9, 2022Posted ineconomyNo Comments

Gasoline seems to increase ten cents every day. Some pundits say crude will hit $2000 shortly which will place gas at nearly $8.00 per gallon. President Biden is blaming it on Putin but the reality is that decisions made in the last year in the USA have set the stage for a domestic energy shortfall – and therefore much of the resulting inflation. The Ukraine war has accelerated the process but an energy shortfall was baked into the cake.

Inflation Is Biting

March 7, 2022Posted ineconomyNo Comments

The dynamics causing inflation are beginning to pile up.

  • the pandemic caused a slow down in production;
  • the strong economic recovery from the pandemic caused a short supply of products due to labor shortages and historically high demand exceeding supply; and,
  • now the Ukraine war where major suppliers of commodities are sidelined.

Economic Cycles

November 25, 2021Posted ineconomyNo Comments

by John Lounsbury

I have written articles discussing the business cycle, the National Bureau of Economic Research (nber) process for measuring recessions, and proposals for improved terminology for measuring economic cycles.

  1. Depression: The Forgotten Part of the Business Cycle (2010)
  2. Time to Take a Fresh Look at the Business Cycle (2010)
  3. What is an Economic Depression? (2016) – Also appeared on Talk Markets.