The State of Joe Sixpack in 1Q2023: The Average Joe Is Even Worse Off Than Last Quarter

Written by Steven Hansen

The Federal Reserve data release (Z.1 Flow of Funds) – which provides insight into the finances of the average household – shows a decline in average household net worth and an improvement in income. Our modeled “Joe Sixpack” – who owns a house and has a job, but essentially no other asset – is worse off than he was last quarter.

20May2023 Saturday Headlines & A Summary Of Economic Releases This Past Week

Here are the economic releases we viewed this week:

  • Conference Board Leading Economic Index
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey
  • April 2023 CEO Turnover Report
  • Existing-home sales
  • Initial unemployment claims
  • Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach container shipments
  • New Residential Construction
  • Federal Reserve’s Industrial Production
  • Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales
  • Empire State Manufacturing Index

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. Drilling Rigs Swing To Annual Loss For First Time In Years
  • G7 Urged To Take The Lead In Phasing Out Fossil Fuels
  • Oil Prices Climb As Bullish Sentiment Builds
  • White House, Republican team say no progress in debt ceiling talks
  • Ford, GM and Toyota push into midsize pickup trucks, the latest battleground for U.S. automakers
  • Five takeaways about the consumer from Walmart, other retailers after a big week of earnings
  • Self-Checkout Machines Are Now Begging For Tips

Click on the “Read More” below to access the economic releases and headlines, with their associated summaries..

The Double-Edged Sword – The US Dollar As The World’s Primary Reserve Currency

The Congressional Budget Office has produced a paper entitled “The U.S. Dollar as an International Currency and Its Economic Effects” which they summarized as follows:

The U.S. dollar plays an important role as the most widely used currency in global goods, services, and financial markets. Strong international demand for U.S. dollars and dollar-denominated assets associated with the dollar’s status as an international currency has increased the value of the dollar in foreign exchange markets and the value of dollar-denominated assets in financial markets. As a result, the dollar’s status has contributed to persistent U.S. trade deficits and, by lowering interest rates, to increased access to credit for U.S. households, businesses, and the federal government. Over the next decade, the dollar’s international use is expected to decline very gradually, in the Congressional Budget Office’s assessment, but it will not be overtaken by either of its closest competitors, the euro or the Chinese renminbi. 

The State of Joe Sixpack in 4Q2022: The Average Joe Is Worse Off

Written by Steven Hansen

The Federal Reserve data release (Z.1 Flow of Funds) – which provides insight into the finances of the average household – shows improvement in average household net worth. Our modeled “Joe Sixpack” – who owns a house and has a job, but essentially no other asset – is worse off than he was last quarter.

February 2023 Economic Forecast: Most Data Shows Little Indication That A Recession Is Coming

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index improved this month but continues to show weak growth. There is a general economic weakness across the board EXCEPT in the area of government and employment. However, except for industrial production (and possibly retail sales) – the data is showing few signs that a recession is coming. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

December 2022 Economic Forecast: Our Indicators Predict Continued Moderation Of Economic Growth

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index slowed again this month and continues to show the lowest level of growth since the 2020 recession. The ongoing weakness of transport, and imports continues to weigh on our economic forecast. There is no question we live in interesting economic times as the future economic impacts of inflation and COVID are unpredictable. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.