Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 9, 2023

July 9, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Sun Jul 09 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Jul 10 2023 – 00Z Wed Jul 12 2023

…Heavy rain is likely to produce the potential for significant flash
flooding throughout parts of the Northeast tonight and into New England on
Monday…

…Additional rounds of severe weather and flash flooding persist across
the Central/Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley…

…Anomalously hot weather continues for portions of the Florida
Peninsula, Texas, and the Southwest…

Crop Report July 8. 2023 – Crop Condition Stabilizes.

July 8, 2023Posted inagriculture, weatherNo Comments

Now Final.  Sorry for the delay. It was 90% complete when published last night but I wanted to take the time to adjust the commentary and swap out two graphics.

This article is based primarily on the July 5, 2023, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the June 25 to July 2 period of time. The USDA report usually becomes available on Tuesdays but due to the Fourth of July Holiday, it was published on Wednesday. For some reason, I forgot to publish my article Wednesday night and I remembered to do that on Friday

It now seems more like an average crop but it has not gotten worse which is a relief. Both corn and soybeans had a very good start but the quality of the crop has been somewhat compromised by drought. Soybeans are doing a bit better than corn. The condition report was about the same this week which is good given the weather. The weather outlooks are mostly favorable.

We also include the recent report on peanut prices. I vary these reports to give readers information on different crops.

The article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions.

We begin with the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 8, 2023

July 8, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 PM EDT Sat Jul 08 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Jul 09 2023 – 00Z Tue Jul 11 2023

…Heavy rain and instances of flash flooding likely across parts of the
Northeast on Sunday, with the threat lingering across New England on
Monday…

…Additional rounds of severe weather and flash flooding persist across
the Central/Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley through this
weekend…

…Anomalously hot weather continues for portions of the Southwest, West
Texas, interior Pacific Northwest, and Florida Peninsula…

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 7, 2023

July 7, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 PM EDT Fri Jul 07 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Jul 08 2023 – 00Z Mon Jul 10 2023

…Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible across the Northeast
through tonight, with another bout of intense rainfall likely on Sunday…

…Additional rounds of severe weather and flash flooding persist across
the Central and Southern Plains through this weekend as the threat
gradually slides eastward into the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi
Valley…

…Hot weather continues for portions of the Southwest, West Texas,
interior Pacific Northwest, and Florida Peninsula…

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 6, 2023

July 6, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 PM EDT Thu Jul 06 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Jul 07 2023 – 00Z Sun Jul 09 2023

…Additional rounds of severe weather with heavy rainfall and flash
flooding chances persist across the central Plains through late week,
reaching into the Mississippi Valley by Saturday…

…Hot weather continues over the interior Northwest and parts of the East
while Excessive Heat Warnings and Critical Fire Risk remain in effect for
Arizona…

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 5, 2023

July 5, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 5:59 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, July 5, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Wed Jul 05 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Jul 06 2023 – 00Z Sat Jul 08 2023

…Severe weather and heavy rainfall/flash flooding chances persist across
the central Plains through at least Friday…

…Heat reaches its peak intensity over portions of the Pacific Northwest
today (Wednesday) while Excessive Heat Warnings and Critical Fire Risk are
in effect for Arizona…

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 4, 2023

July 4, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 5:10 p.m. EDT Sunday July 4, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 PM EDT Tue Jul 04 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Jul 05 2023 – 00Z Fri Jul 07 2023

…Well above-normal to record-breaking heat expected for portions of the
Pacific Northwest…

…Strong to severe storms likely for portions of the Northern/Central
Plains and into the Midwest; Critical Fire Risk over northern Arizona
tonight…

…Heavy to excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding possible from
Northern/Central Plains into Upper Midwest as well as Northeast tonight…

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 3, 2023

July 3, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:13 p.m. EDT Monday, July 3, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 PM EDT Mon Jul 03 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Jul 04 2023 – 00Z Thu Jul 06 2023

…Well above-normal to record-breaking heat expected for portions of the
Northwest…

…Strong to severe storms likely for portions of the northern to central
Plains and the Midwest…

…Unsettled weather, including strong to severe storms, expected from
parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast into the southern Plains…

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 2, 2023

July 2, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jul 02 2023

Valid 12Z Sun Jul 02 2023 – 12Z Tue Jul 04 2023

…Heavy rain with the risk of localized flash flooding and severe weather
stretching from the Northeast to the Ohio/Tennessee Valley today…

…Heat will be less intense across the South but will remain excessively
hot over California and the Desert Southwest…

…Much above normal temperatures for portions of the northern Plains and
upper Midwest ahead of rain/storm chances Monday into the 4th of July holiday…

NOAA Updates It’s July 2023 Outlook on June 30, 2023- It is a dramatic change from the Mid-Month Outlook

July 1, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is July of 2023. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for July and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We highlighted some of the important statements within the NOAA Discussion. We also provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for July for comparison.  From the NOAA Discussion:

  • El Niño is still present in the equatorial Pacific, and likely to remain in place for the entire month.
  • For the temperature outlook, the largest changes from the mid-month outlook to the updated outlook extend from the Northern and Central Rockies to High Plains, and across southern Alaska.
  • The outlook over the Northern and Central Rockies and High Plains now favors below-normal temperatures, largely influenced by the forecast conditions early in the month (Days 1-14).
  • The probabilities for above-normal temperatures are decreased over the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys, reflective of the latest official outlooks and model guidance.
  • The precipitation outlook for Alaska has changed to favoring above-normal precipitation from the Alaska Peninsula northward across western Alaska to the Brooks Ranges and along the northern coast.
  • Hurricane Beatriz could trigger a monsoon moisture surge during the first half of July across the Southwest, so probabilities are mitigated compared to some model guidance.
  • Stronger signals  for above-normal precipitation are located over the Central Great Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley due to predicted rains in the first week exceeding the threshold for the below normal category on the monthly timescale.
  • Small portions of Texas are also likely to exceed that threshold during the first week of July.
  • During the remainder of the month, an active storm track is forecast from the Northern Rockies to the Ohio Valley and Northeast, which leads to enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation in those regions.
  • During July, a pattern change favors widespread above-normal rainfall extending from the central Plains across the Corn Belt and Northeast, with enhanced rainfall possibly extending southward to the southern Appalachians and Piedmont.

It may be easier to just look at the maps than digest the above.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for July. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the July Outlook. We have also included the current fire incidents (dramatically decreased) and four months of Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks and also a map showingthe water-year-to-date precipitation. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.