Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 9, 2024

January 9, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jan 9 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 9 2024 – 12Z Thu Jan 11 2024

…Major storm system will hammer the Eastern U.S. with widespread heavy
rain, strong winds, and severe thunderstorms on Tuesday into early
Wednesday…

…Unsettled weather conditions continue for the Western U.S. with much
colder temperatures arriving for the Northern Plains…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 8, 2024

January 8, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jan 08 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 08 2024 – 12Z Wed Jan 10 2024

…A Major Storm will produce widespread, significant impacts over much of
the U.S. this week…

…A Major Winter Storm will bring several feet of snow to the Washington
and Oregon Cascades through Tuesday…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 7, 2024

January 7, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jan 07 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 07 2024 – 12Z Tue Jan 09 2024

…Major winter storm will produce additional heavy snow for Northeast and
Central Appalachians today…

…Rapidly strengthening storm will lead to widespread, significant
impacts over much of the central U.S. beginning Monday…

…Major winter storm will dump several feet of snow over the Washington
and Oregon Cascades

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Agriculture Prices January 6, 2024: 2003 Has Not Been a Good Year in Most Cases

January 6, 2024Posted inagricultureNo Comments

Updated at 1:20 a.m. January 7, 2024 to do some light editing and add the discussion of price parity.

In theory, if the prices received decline by 15% and your prices paid decline by 0.3% you should be in trouble.   Let’s take a closer look. Some readers will have to click on “Read More to access the full article.  I have included most of the report but the full report can be accessed HERE. In most cases, we are looking at Nov 2023 as compared to either the prior month i.e. October 2023 or the same month last year which would be November 2022. So in many cases, it is a November to November comparison but if you look closely it is pretty much a comparison of 2023 to 2022. The section I left out is called Price Parity. I left it out mostly because I do not understand it.  I think it is less important now than in the past but you be the judge by reading HERE.

 

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 6, 2024

January 6, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jan 06 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 06 2024 – 12Z Mon Jan 08 2024

…East Coast winter storm to bring freezing rain to the southern and
central Appalachians and heavy snow to the Northeast today…

…Areas of heavy rain with possible flash flooding and severe
thunderstorms for the Gulf Coast and Florida today…

…Pacific storm system to bring heavy mountain snow, strong winds and
coastal rain to the West this weekend…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 5, 2024

January 5, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Jan 05 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 05 2024 – 12Z Sun Jan 07 2024

…Light to moderate snow expected for portions of the southern and
central Great Plains along with localized flash flooding for the Gulf
Coast today…

…Significant icing possible for portions of the southern and central
Appalachians tonight into Saturday…

…Snow from developing East Coast winter storm to begin affecting
interior portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Saturday…

…Pacific storm system to bring renewed round of heavy mountain snow and
coastal rain to the Northwest Coast tonight into Saturday…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 4, 2024

January 4, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Jan 04 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 04 2024 – 12Z Sat Jan 06 2024

…Snow expected for portions of the Four Corners region and adjacent High
Plains Thursday…

…Showers and thunderstorms with some locally heavy rainfall forecast
from Texas late Thursday into the Southeast Friday with storm system
traversing the Gulf Coast…

…Series of Pacific storm systems will keep low-elevation/coastal rain,
interior wintry mix, and high elevation mountain snow in the forecast for
the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and Great Basin…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 3, 2024

January 3, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Jan 03 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 03 2024 – 12Z Fri Jan 05 2024

…Showers and thunderstorms spread eastward from the central Gulf Coast
Wednesday into Florida and portions of the Southeast Wednesday night…

…Lake-effect snow showers forecast downwind from the Great Lakes…

…Lower elevation/coastal rain and higher elevation accumulating snowfall
continues in California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest/Four Corners
Region Wednesday, with snow shifting into the Central/Southern High Plains
Thursday…

…Precipitation chances remain in the forecast for the Pacific Northwest
as a couple system pass through…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 2, 2024

January 2, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jan 02 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 02 2024 – 12Z Thu Jan 04 2024

…Pacific system to bring coastal/lower elevation rain and mountain snows
to California and the Pacific Northwest Tuesday, spreading into the Great
Basin and Southwest Wednesday…

…Moderate to locally heavy rainfall expected with showers and
thunderstorms for portions of Texas and the Gulf Coast…

…Lake-effect snows downwind from the Great Lakes over the next couple of
days…

For those who may have missed the January update, here is the key graphic.

 

 I provide the link to the full report published on Monday in the body of this article.  The above shows in the top row the updated outlook for January.  The bottom row is the three-month outlook issued on December 21.  Do I think that outlook is still valid?  I have to say no. The changes made to the January Outlook raise questions about the three-month outlook. But NOAA says the changes were due to the MJO and AO. The MJO will not impact February and March based on what happened in January. It is not clear if the changes to the AO will carry into subsequent months. And it is not clear that the changes in the outlook were fully explained in the discussion issued with the updated outlook.  So we will be in suspense until the new Seasonal Outlook is issued on January 18, 2024.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today with some additional comments on the article issued yesterday.

NOAA Realizes it is a Powerful El Nino and Updates its January 2024 Outlook. January 1, 2024

January 1, 2024Posted inweather2 Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is January of 2024. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some very significant changes in the Outlook for January and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading.  We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for January for comparison. It is easy to see the changes by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for January. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the January Drought Outlook.

The best way to understand the updated outlook for January is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.

I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for January and the Mid-Month Outlook for January. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for January and the three-month outlook JFM 2024. So you get the full picture in three graphics.

Here is the updated Outlook for January 2024

 

For Comparison Purposes, Here is the Mid-Month Outlook for January.

 

There have been some significant changes. Remember, it is the top set of maps that are the current outlook for December. Until now we were not sure that NOAA (actually their CPC Divison) had moved the storm track sufficiently south given the strength of this El Nino as measured by the Nino 3.4 Index. All of a sudden they have.

The top row is the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology.  The three-month map was issued on December 21, 2023.  Is it still valid?

Some readers may need to click “Read More” to read the rest of the article.  Some will feel that they have enough information. But there is a lot more information in the rest of this article.