Sig Silber, Author at EconCurrents

Colorado River Basin January 17, 2024 Water Supply Forecast Discussion – Posted January 20, 2024

By Sig Silber January 20, 2024weatherNo Comments

The mission of the National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) is to produce river, flood, and water supply forecasts for the Colorado Basin and the Great Basin in support of saving lives and property and to enhance the region’s environment and economy.

In this article, I am providing a summary of their Water Supply Forecast Discussion released on January 17, 2024. The situation is not very good. However due to a wet winter last winter, the reservoirs are mostly in good shape.

I have also included information on the current reservoir storage levels including a few that are outside of the Colorado River Basin.

The image below shows part of the area covered in the CBRFC Report. The map shown here is only the Colorado Basin. The Eastern Great Basin is to the west of this map. The maps shown in the article cover both basins but are not as scenic as this map.

Map showing both the Colorado Basin and Eastern Great Basin.

Most of the information presented in this part of the article is from a summary report (Link) issued by the Colorado River Basin Forecast Center. January 17, 2023, Water Supply Forecast Discussion
The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) geographic forecast area includes the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB), and Eastern Great Basin (GB). It is one of many similar organizations within the National Weather Service. They are all different. In the future, I will try to pay more attention to some of the other River Forecasting Centers but they do not all go out of their way to provide reports to the Media. But the Colorado River is a special situation in a way due to the problems complying with the Colorado River Compact. But all our rivers are important.

At this time of the year, we are hopefully adding to the snowpack for future snowmelt. Additional information is available on the Center website (click HERE), there are certain graphics that update daily. And now I provide the main part of their new forecast discussion summary. I am copying directly from their document. My comments are in boxes.

The CBRFC weather forecast is for a changing weather pattern. For updated weather forecasts go to econcurrents.com

and look for the most recent Short-Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks article in the list of Recent Posts.

Please click on “Read More” to read the rest of this article.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 20, 2024

By Sig Silber January 20, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jan 20 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 20 2024 – 12Z Mon Jan 22 2024

…Heavy rain expected to impact northern to central California today and
early Monday, with heavy wet snow along the Sierra Nevada…

…More freezing rain is forecast for the Columbia River Basin…

…Arctic air will dominate the eastern two-thirds of the country with
lake-effect and upslope snows remaining active today…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

NOAA Updates its Seasonal Outlook on January 18, 2024 – Winners and Losers. Rapid Changes in ENSO Phases

By Sig Silber January 19, 2024weatherNo Comments

Lightly Edited at 7:38 pm EST January 20, 2024

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued their updated Seasonal Outlook which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends a bit more than one year into the future. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the following month plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months. I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as the twelve successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

With respect to the long-term part of the Outlook which I call the Four-Season Outlook, there is a fairly rapid transition from El Nino to ENSO Neutral to LaNina. Thus there are some changes from what was issued last month.

First, Let’s Take a Look at the (mid-month) Outlook for February.

It will be updated on the last day of January.

The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020. So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term “climatology”.

Notice that the outlook for next month and the three-month outlooks are somewhat different, particularly with respect to precipitation. This tells us that March and April will be different than February to some extent.

The full NOAA Seasonal Outlook extends through February/March/April of 2025. All of these maps are in the body of the article. Large maps are provided for February and the three-month period Feb/Mar/Apr. Small maps are provided beyond that through April of 2025 with a link to get larger versions of these maps.

NOAA provides an excellent discussion to support the maps. It is included in the body of this article. In some cases, one will need to click on “read more” to read the full article. For those on my email list where I have sent the url of the article, that will not be necessary.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 19, 2024

By Sig Silber January 19, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Jan 19 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 19 2024 – 12Z Sun Jan 21 2024

…Another arctic air intrusion spreading into much of the central to
eastern U.S….

…Heavy precipitation moving into much of California for the weekend with
heavy snow along the Sierra Nevada…

…Significant icing possible today and early Sunday through the Columbia
River Gorge in the Pacific Northwest…

…Accumulating snows spreading from the Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic…

…Lake-effect snows remain active into Saturday…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 18, 2024

By Sig Silber January 18, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Jan 18 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 18 2024 – 12Z Sat Jan 20 2024

…Heavy mountain snows for the Northwest/Rockies; additional ice over the
Columbia Basin…

…Bands of heavy lake-effect snow continue for the Great Lakes with
hazardous snow across the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic by Friday…

…Another Arctic blast expected late this week…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast – Posted on January 17, 2024

By Sig Silber January 17, 2024weatherNo Comments

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

“The recent observation suggests that the El Niño reached its peak. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will decay and an El Niño Modoki will develop and persist at least until the next boreal spring. The model also predicts that a La Niña Modoki will occur in boreal autumn. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predicted amplitude.”

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World.

First, we take a look at the forecasted sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). JAMSTEC starts by forecasting the SSTA and Nino 3.4 Index on the first day of the month and from there it usually takes their models about two weeks to produce their seasonal forecast. I received it from JAMSTEC on January 10, 2024 which is a week before when NOAA will issue their Seasonal Update this month but I had so many articles to publish that I did not publish this JAMSTEC forecast immediately. The JAMSTEC model runs are based on conditions as of January 1, 2024. The NOAA Seasonal Outlook will be based on conditions closer to the time when it is issued.

We have a full three-season forecast from JAMSTEC this month. We also have single-month forecasts for February, March and April 2024.

Let’s take a look.

This shows their forecast of sea surface temperature anomalies at three points in time. Red is warm and is associated with El Nino if it occurs in the Nino 3.4 measurement areas. You can see the El Nino tongue of warm water extending from Peru to the west in the MAM image but look at that blob of warm water to the west i.e. by this point in time this has Modoki characteristics which impact the Walker circulation. JJA and SON show ENSO Neutral or La Nina.

JAMSTEC (and also NOAA) are showing very warm oceans in many parts of the world. I have written about that before. It raises questions about the reliability of our current approach to thinking about the ENSO Cycle. This is covered in another article that can be accessed HERE. But JAMSTEC is showing a relatively normal ocean off the coast of much of the U.S. which probably explains their strange forecast.

JAMSTEC uses the same definition of Normal (climatology) as NOAA. JAMSTEC does a better job at characterizing La Ninas and El Ninos than NOAA. JAMSTEC provides me with a lot of other information that I do not include in my articles to keep them to a manageable size for readers.

JAMSTEC has been having some computational issues with its model. From the email I received from them: “Because of changes to the library in our computer, this time we could not complete all members”. Last month they were not able to publish at all. I do not know how to assess their message to me. In November they upgraded their model from 12 members to 36. Their goal is to go to 108. On the website, the images indicate that all members were included. It is not possible to accurately estimate the current conditions. So the technique in ensemble models is to perturb the assumptions slightly for multiple model runs (or use different physics models for some runs) and take the average (mean) of the solutions. Each solution is called a member of the group of solutions for which the mean was taken. I am intrigued by the coincidence of this “change to the library in our computer” with their publication of this article. Based on the Japanese Culture they would not have released this forecast if they did not have confidence in it.

Some Readers will have to click on “Read More” to read the rest of the article which you need to read to see the forecasts. I can only include a certain amount of material in the lede.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 17, 2024

By Sig Silber January 17, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Jan 17 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 17 2024 – 12Z Fri Jan 19 2024

…Heavy mountain snows for the Northwest/Rockies; ice storm for portions
of the Pacific Northwest…

…Bands of heavy lake-effect snow continue for the Great Lakes…

…A return to more typical Winter temperatures for many Wednesday after
the brutal cold; another Arctic blast expected late this week…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 16, 2024

By Sig Silber January 16, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jan 16 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 16 2024 – 12Z Thu Jan 18 2024

…Snow continues across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast…

…Additional freezing rain and elevation snowfall expected over the
Pacific Northwest…

…Brief reprieve from the brutal cold after this morning; another Arctic
blast expected late this week…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Looking back at 2023 Weather for the World -Posted on January 15, 2024

By Sig Silber January 15, 2024weatherNo Comments

Most of the information in this report comes from the monthly email I receive from John Bateman. He does public outreach for NOAA and in particular NCEI. I could find the same information and more on the NCEI website but John produces a good summary so I use it or most of it. I also sometimes add additional information from NCEI or other NOAA websites. The full NCEI report for 2023 can be accessed HERE.

I added the below to what John Bateman provided.

2023 was a busy year

This is the temperature trend for the world: land and water. There was a big increase in 2923.

This is also land and water [corrected previous error) and it is by month and it shows the ENSO state of each month. You can really see that the temperature goes up with the El Nino phase and down with La Nina. It has to do with the releases and absorption of heat by the oceans during the different ENSO Phases. A main reason for that is simple. During La Nina the strong Easterlies along the Pacific skim off the warm surface water is forced into the IndoPacific Warm Pool where it covers a smaller area. When the Easterlies relax during an El Nino the warm water spreads out so the Ocean Surface is warmer. There are other factors also.

This is just land Globally. It also increased in 2023 but not as much as when including both land and water.

This is for the year but just North America which in not just the U.S. but includes the U.S. 2023 seemed to match but not beat a year about seven years earlier.

This is December only for North America which includes the U.S. but more than the U.S.. 2023 saw a big increase.

This is just the U.S. for December and we have shown this before but you can see that the increase here is less than for North America probably because it does not include Alaska. I did not include enough graphs to make it easy to figure out but Northern Hemisphere has warmed more than the Southern Hemisphere. It probably has to do with the higher ratio of land to water in the Northern Hemisphere. When water warms it is not just at the surface so the impact of Global Warming on the surface of water is less than the impact on the surface of land.

Now we will go back to the information in the Bateman email and some readers will have to click on Read More to see the rest of this article.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 15, 2024

By Sig Silber January 15, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jan 15 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 15 2024 – 12Z Wed Jan 17 2024

…Dangerously cold temperatures continue across much of the U.S…

…Snow and freezing rain continue over the Southern U.S today, spread
into the Mid-Atlantic …

…Heavy lake effect snowfall continues…