NOAA Updates its ENSO Analysis on July 14, 2022 – Increasing Chances of a Three-peat

July 15, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted somewhat from last month. The forecast calls for the La Nina to continue but weaken during the Summer. Then it’s forecast to strengthen again in the Fall and Winter. The timing is shown in the NOAA discussion and the IRI probability analysis.

Of importance, the chances of a Triple Dip La Nina are still difficult to predict but seem to be higher than the estimate last month. I am not exactly sure how you define a Three-Peat. If it has to do with extending into early Winter the odds seem to be a bit higher. This is not likely to change the forecast for Winter but might change the forecast for next Spring. Finally, there is now less disagreement among meteorological agencies as to when this La Nina will end.

So I am referring to it as a Three-peat but it is not over until it is over. So it may not happen but it looks increasing as if it will.

Daily Report for the next 48 hours or a bit more from July 15, 2022 plus access to Tropical Outlooks and Intermediate-term Outlooks

July 15, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

..Heat to continue across much of the Central and Western States...

..A Fire Weather Threat across portions of the Great Basin and Central
Plains...

..Heavy Rains and isolated Flash Flooding possible along the Central Gulf
Coast into the Southeast, across the Upper Mississippi Valley and from the
Southwest into the Great Basin and Southern Rockies...

Daily Report for the next 48 hours or a bit more from July 14, 2022 plus access to Tropical Outlooks and Intermediate-term Outlooks

July 14, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Continuing chances for heavy rain and scattered flash flooding forecast
across the central Gulf Coast and Southeast...

...Isolated instances of flash flooding possible over the Southwest and
parts of the central/southern Rockies associated with monsoon activity...

...Severe thunderstorms capable of containing damaging wind gusts are
possible across parts of the northern High Plains and Mid-South through
tonight...

...Dangerous heat and humidity persists across much of the central United
States and Great Basin through the end of the week... 

Daily Report for the next 48 hours from July 13, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks and Tropical Outlooks

July 13, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Gulf Coast to The Southern Appalachians on Wednesday and expanding to the
southern Mid-Atlantic Coast on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Rockies/High Plains through Thursday morning...

...Dangerous heat and humidity across parts of the South Plains to the
Lower Mississippi Valley will continue as well as parts of the Northern
High Plains and Great Basin... 

Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 12, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks and Tropical Outlooks

July 12, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Dangerous heat to continue across portions of the southern Plains...

...Severe storms possible from the Midwest this evening to the Mid
Atlantic and Northeast tomorrow...

...Heavy rains will be possible along portions of the northern Gulf Coast
from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next several days...

Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 11, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks and Tropical Outlooks

July 10, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Oppressive to dangerous heat and humidity continues across the southern
Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley as some relief from the heat
moves into the central High Plains...

...Heat increases across the Desert Southwest and interior valleys of
California...

...Threat of heavy rain moving southward into the Southeast next couple of
days as another heavy rain threat emerges near the central Gulf Coast...

...Severe thunderstorms threat expected to track across the northern tier
states for the next couple of days...

Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 10, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks and Tropical Outlooks

July 10, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Dangerous heat and humidity continues across parts of the southern
Plains to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through Monday...

...Areas of heavy rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic expected to push
southward into the Southeast on Sunday...

...Severe thunderstorms possible tonight and Sunday over parts of the
northern Rockies to northern Plains, as well as  parts of the Deep South
tonight...



















	




	
	

		Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 8, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks	





		
			
		
		July 8, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
This is still an experimental article (we are working to be sure all the images update)


Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s  NWS Forecast:


...Dangerous heat and humidity to continue from parts of the central and
southern Plains to the Southeast...

...Unsettled weather including severe storms and heavy rain to continue
along a slow-moving boundary extending from the central Plains to the
Southeast...

...Severe storms possible into the weekend across Montana...




















	




	
	

		Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 7, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks	





		
			
		
		July 7, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
This is still an experimental article (we are working to be sure all the images update)


Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s  NWS Forecast:


...Widespread showers and thunderstorms with excessive rainfall and severe
weather possible through Friday from the High Plains to the East Coast...

...Dangerous heat and humidity to continue from parts of the
Central/Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast...




















	




	
	

		Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 6, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks	





		
			
		
		July 6, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
This is still an experimental article (we are working to be sure all the images update)


Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s  NWS Forecast:


...Showers and thunderstorms with excessive rainfall and severe weather
possible through midweek from the Northern Rockies and High Plains to the
Mid Atlantic and Southeast...

...Dangerous heat and humidity to continue from parts of the central and
southern Plains to the Mid Atlantic and Southeast...