NOAA Updates March 2022 Outlook

March 1, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates their Early Outlook for the following month which in this case is March. They also issue a drought outlook for the following month. We are reporting on that tonight. The updated Outlook is not very different from the Early Outlook which NOAA now calls the Mid-Month Outlook. It is a bit less warm than the Mid-Month Outlook, slightly wetter, and there seems to be a lower level of confidence in the probabilities associated with the various anomalies in the Outlook. There is a lot of variation throughout the month and this is described in the NOAA discussion and we provide partial-month outlooks for the first 25 days of March.  We also provide enough information for readers to understand any changes from the Mid-Month Outlook and we try to figure out why these changes were made.

NOAA Updates their Four-Season Outlook on February 17, 2022

February 18, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Introduction

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued their Seasonal Outlook which extends slightly more than a year so I call it a four-season outlook. It also includes what NOAA calls their Early Outlook for the following month which is March and a drought Outlook for the next three months. The maps show where temperature and precipitation will deviate from normal as the existing La Nina weakens and the weather pattern reverts to normal as adjusted to take into account what NOAA calls decadal trends. I include the full NOAA Discussion which supports their predictions. There is no guarantee that the future will unfold exactly as projected by NOAA but having this information which represents both a near-term and fairly long-term Outlook can be very useful.

Assessing the U.S. Climate in January 2022

February 14, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Every month NOAA issues a report assessing the U.S. Climate for that month and I receive an email that summarizes that report. The email generally does a very good job of presenting the information in the monthly report so I thought that I would provide the information that was in that email.  However, I have replaced two of the graphics with different NOAA graphics.

These are pretty much the same information but for temperature and precipitation rather than showing the map of the temperature and precipitation anomalies, I am showing the state rankings of their temperature and precipitation relative to the most recent 128 years of data. There are many ways to display data and I just happen to like the state ranking approach. On an overall basis, it was cool compared to recent years and dry not only compared to recent years but to the entire period of record.  There was a lot of variation throughout the U.S.

NOAA Updates the Status of ENSO February 10, 2022

February 11, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted somewhat from last month. The forecast calls for the La Nina to continue to fade.  The timing is shown in the NOAA discussion and the IRI probability analysis. The Australian Meteorological Service thinks this will happen sooner and I agree. I present some information that suggests that NOAA has the timing wrong and that the transition to ENSO Neutral will occur fairly soon.

The impact of the NOAA forecast for the transition from La Nina to ENSO Neutral will show up next Thursday when NOAA issues its Seasonal Outlook. The NOAA ENSO Status Update provides an advance indication of how the forecast might change. To repeat, I expect the demise of La Nina to occur somewhat sooner than predicted by NOAA.  It is not a significant difference. There is a lag between the ENSO state and the impact on U.S. weather.  Thus the exact date when a fading La Nina meets the criteria for ENSO Neutral may not be very important in terms of the actual impact on Spring and Summer weather including the North American Monsoon (NAM). We will learn what NOAA thinks next Thursday.

NOAA Updates Their February 2022 Outlook

February 1, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates their Early Outlook for the following month which in this case is February. They also issue a drought outlook for the following month. We are reporting on that tonight as well as some interesting information on the change in Western streamflow median levels in the new climatology versus the prior climatology. This tells us how the past three decades have changed from the prior three decades. It is in line with what should be expected and is very interesting. It suggests that on average the West is drying out but I think I also see a secondary trend where it may be getting drier to the south and wetter to the north.

JAMSTEC Seasonal Outlook for Spring and Summer of 2022

January 27, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

I should have reported this a couple of weeks ago after NOAA issued their Seasonal Outlook.  JAMSTEC is a well respected Japanese Research Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. They have a proprietary forecast model and every month they normally issue a three-season forecast. This month they only looked out two seasons.  I think it is useful to look at more than one forecast as it provides to some extent an assessment of the variability one might expect in the observed weather compared to the forecasts. This is usually due to slight differences in the strength and timing of the ENSO Cycle. As discussed in this article, both NOAA and JAMSTEC may be working with assumptions about the ENSO cycle that may turn out to be incorrect. So this may limit our ability to forecast even as far out as this summer.

NOAA Updates their Four-Season Outlook on January 20, 2022

January 21, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Introduction

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued their Seasonal Outlook. In this article I summarize it and provide links that will take the reader to additional maps and discussions that I have not included but I have included quite a bit in this article. I want to remind everyone that last Thursday NOAA issued their ENSO outlook and that has a lot of influence on their Seasonal Outlook.  The Seasonal Outlook generally reflects La Nina conditions initially with a transition to ENSO Neutral in late Spring. Over the next three months, the Southern Tier drought intensifies but there is relief in the Northwest extending east but not reaching the Dakotas.

NOAA Updates the Status of ENSO

January 14, 2022Posted inweather2 Comments

Updated on January 14, 2022 by adding a graphic. On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same as La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted somewhat from last month.  The earlier forecast was that we would transition to ENSO Neutral Status very soon. Now it looks like the La Nina will extend into Spring. The impact of that will show up next Thursday when NOAA issues their Seasonal Outlook. The NOAA ENSO Status Update provides an advance indication of how the forecast might change.

 

Assessing the U.S. Climate in 2021

January 12, 2022Posted inClimate, weather2 Comments

The National Centers of Environmental Information (NCEI) publishes a monthly analysis of the U.S. climate as well as an annual report.  John Bateman, a meteorologist, and an NOAA Public Affairs specialist, sends out an email that summarizes the NCEI report. This article is based on the summary written by John Bateman. At the end of the article is the link to the full NCEI Report. The key takeaways:  CONUS had the fourth warmest year in recent history and 20 billion-dollar disasters were identified.

COVID-19: What We Learned from a Recent New Mexico Press Conference

January 9, 2022Posted inHealthcareNo Comments

On January 5. 2022 the New Mexico Department of Health held its weekly press conference. That press conference reinforces my belief that it is difficult to figure out what is going on with COVID-19 and all its variants.  It is not clear to me that what is going on is part of any coherent plan.  I will discuss all of this in the body of this article.  For those who want to know more about the presentation, I have provided some links at the end of this article.