NOAA Updates its Four Season Outlook on September 15, 2022 – One More La Nina Winter

September 17, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Preparing to Say Goodbye to La Nina Early in 2023. It seems as if it is taking forever but if the forecasters are correct, we are talking about four to six months from now.

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of October plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. NOAA seems to be more confident about making predictions beyond six months. They even predicted a good monsoon next summer which they never do this far in advance.

September 17, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 17, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Low pressure waves moving east across the northern Plains will bring a
threat of heavy rain across the upper Great Lakes and chance of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the upper Midwest this weekend...

...Heavy rain associated with a Pacific low pressure system is forecast to
reach northern California on Sunday...

...Heat is forecast to build across the central Plains...

September 16, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 16, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Heavy to excessive rainfall possible across parts of the Central Great
Basin/Northern Rockies today and into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
through Friday...

...Daily rounds of showers and storms likely across Florida...

...Warming trend begins in Central Plains while West and Northeast
continue to experience below average temperatures...

...Scattered Severe Thunderstorms over the portions of the Central High
Plains and Central Plains on Friday...

September 15, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 15, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Heavy to excessive rainfall possible across parts of the central Great
Basin/Northern Rockies through Thursday and into the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes on Thursday and Friday...

...Daily rounds of showers and storms likely across Florida...

...Above average temperatures span across the central United States and
Midwest to end the week...

September 14, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 14, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Heavy to excessive rainfall possible across parts of the Great Basin
and Northern Rockies through Wednesday, and into the far northern U.S. on
Thursday...

...Daily rounds of showers and storms likely across Florida...

...Much above normal temperatures for the central U.S., with much below in
parts of the West and the East...

September 13, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 13, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over Southwest and a
second area over the Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday
morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from parts of the Great
Basin/Southwest from Tuesday into Wednesday morning...

September 12, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 12, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over Upper Great Lakes,
Mid-Atlantic, and Eastern Gulf Coast through Monday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from parts of the Upper
Great Lakes and a second area over the northern Mid-Atlantic from Monday
into Tuesday morning...

NOAA Updates its ENSO Analysis on September 8, 2022 – La Nina will probably end soon.

September 11, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted slightly from last month. The IRI analysis suggests it could be slightly later than it appeared last month. Also, the probability that it will extend into the winter is much higher. So what I anticipated as being a three-peat looks to be a reality. But in theory, things could change.

Nevertheless, that is what both NOAA and I think will happen. But it could happen a bit earlier or a bit later.

I provided a small sample of model runs by a number of different meteorological agencies that is  presented by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and they suggest that maybe we will be in ENSO Neutral in January or February rather than March as NOAA seems to be thinking. NOAA is placing more weight on the statistical rather than dynamic models but statistics requires data and there have not been a lot of similar situations but what data there is suggests March is more likely than January or February. But perhaps this La Nina will continue beyond March. Maybe it will continue for a fourth year.

September 11, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

September 11, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over Southern California,
Nevada, and Arizona through Sunday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from parts of the Eastern
Gulf Coast and a second area over the Central Appalachians/southern
Mid-Atlantic through Sunday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper
Great Lakes, a second area over the Mid-Atlantic, and a third over Eastern
Gulf Coast from Sunday into Monday morning...

...Elevated fire weather over parts of the Pacific Northwest...

September 9, 2022 Looking Ahead 28 Days Plus our usual 48-hour report.

September 10, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

After the first week, there is a change in the pattern with more moisture in the Northern Tier and more heat first in the Great Plains and then drifting to the East. The anomalies in the second half of the 28-day period moderate.

NOAA updates many of its weather outlooks daily or even more frequently and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. We provide a daily report which focuses on the shorter-term predictions but has links to all the partial-month outlooks. One of the reports issued by NOAA only gets updated on Fridays and since this covers weeks 3 and 4 it is very important. The discussion that gets issued with this week 3-4 NOAA report is often where possible changes to the weather pattern are first identified.

So we have decided to issue a special report on Fridays (which most will read on Saturday) in which for a subset of the information, we show the actual forecast maps not just provide the links. This makes it easier for the reader. We will also include at the end of the article the other information from the daily article

When the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued on Friday, we have a 28-day view of the future. It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts.  This is important because it appears that changes are happening and the current view of the next 28 days differs substantially from the Monthly Outlook issued just a few days ago.

The regular 48-hour forecast article is included in this article and follows the 28-Day Analysis.

This week we also show the state rankings for August and compare them to the state rankings year to date (YTD).