Posts by Gary Hall

Wall Street zigzag across the unchanged line for most of the session, remaining in the red until the remaining hour. Then, ending mostly higher and booked weekly gains. But, many investors fear a recession is around the corner.

Ending the week, the S&P 500 finishes higher and notches another straight weekly gain. In addition, new home buyers saw mortgage rates climb to almost 5% in the second jump this week.

The ongoing hawkish push is higher in market expectations for 2022’s rate-hike trajectory, with nine more rate-hikes now expected by the end of December.

Yields on 2- and 10-year Treasury notes climbed to their highest daily levels in almost three years today. In addition, treasury notes posted their biggest weekly gains in several years as investors reacted to Russia’s possible reassessment of its ambitions in the month-long war in Ukraine.

Today’s aggressive sell-off of U.S. government debt pushed yields higher. Meanwhile, the spread between 5- and 30-year rates shrank below three basis points and teetered on the brink of inverting.

It’s been another very busy week for oil and gas markets. Putin threatened European gas imports, a storm knocked a major oil pipeline offline, and a Saudi oil terminal came under missile attack. Nevertheless, Brent is above $120 per barrel as bullish sentiment remains dominant.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• High Gasoline Prices Are Starting To Hurt Demand
• Saudi Aramco Facility Fire Under Control
• Gm To Halt Pickup Truck Production In Indiana Due To Chip Shortage
• 57% OF U.S. Households Paid No Federal Income Tax Last Year As Covid Took A Toll, Study Says
• Stocks, Gold, & Oil Surge On Week As Yield Curve Carnage Screams ‘Recession’

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Beginning the pre-market news reported Initial Jobless Claims 19/MAR was up 187K from 215K, Jobless Claims 4-week Average 19/MAR was up 211.75K from 223.25K. Continuing Jobless Claims 12/MAR was up to 1350K from 1417K and Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash MAR was up to 58.5 from 57.3. In my opinion, that is what sent Wall Street higher, not the doom scrolling. Then the indexes closed at session highs on average green trading volume.

Equities might have rallied higher if we didn’t have a war in Ukraine and idiots running our countries. O.K., not idiots, but they sure are appearing to be irresponsible. E.g., having Russia invade Ukraine and J.B. cancel the Keystone pipeline. Inflation remains a problem, a really big problem, that the Fed has done nothing about it except talk. I can’t imagine mid-term elections have to do with kicking the can down the road.

Laugh For The Day: Biden says he’d be ‘very fortunate’ to face Trump in the 2024 presidential election.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Billionaire Koch Brothers Are Betting Big On An Electric Future
• The U.S. Is Preparing To Send Major LNG Shipments To Europe
• Diesel Crisis In Europe Worsens As Austrian Energy Giant Limits Sales
• The U.S. Is Preparing To Send Major LNG Shipments To Europe
• Bitcoin, Bullion, Big-Tech, & Bond Yields Rise As Crude Crumbles

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Today’s lame excuse for Wall Street dipping into the red is inflation, the war in Ukraine, and sky-high fuel costs. Tomorrow investors may feel better about today’s doom scrolling and push the market back up.

However, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, said, “If I’m investing over the next 12-month horizon, I would reduce equities at this point. I would take some money off the table,” pointed out. I don’t think the market has factored in yet what’s going to happen to the economy.”

Jeff Kilburg, the chief investment officer of Sanctuary Wealth, said yesterday, “There’s a little bit of a breather today, but the breather really is signaling that equities have the ability to continue to move higher.” I wonder how Jeff feels about the market today?

MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate 18/MAR are up, MBA Mortgage Applications 18/MAR are down, and Fed Chair Powell made a speech on how he will control inflation and make investors feel better – NOT! Oh, and crude oil imports were up this last financial reporting period as Brent crude advanced nearly 5% to top $120 per barrel.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• TotalEnergies: Oil Majors’ Exit From Russia Easier Said Than Done
• Walmart Sues B.J.’s Wholesale Claiming It Stole Self-Checkout Technology
• SpaceX Raises Prices For Rocket Launches And Starlink Satellite Internet As Inflation Hits Raw Materials
• Omicron’s ‘Stealth’ Sub-variant BA.2 Could Go ‘Wild’ In Europe Before Going Global, Top Epidemiologist Says
• People Face Biggest Drop In Living Standards In 66 Years

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

All three indexes advanced higher Tuesday, with the NASDAQ Composite leading the other indexes higher. At the same time, Treasury yields and Brent crude prices continued to climb as investors brace for interest rate hikes following yesterday’s hawkish comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Powell.

Fears of a recession from inflation have not abated as Carl Icahn says there ‘very well could be a recession or even worse.’ A bond selloff has deepened after yesterday’s comments from Jerome Powell, which said the Fed is prepared to act even more aggressively to tackle inflation. A lot of aggressive talk from the Fed and little action so far.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Europe Divided Over New Oil And Coal Sanctions
• Inflation Is Spiking The Cost Of Pet Parenthood Yet Owners Are Still Splurging On Care
• Rocket Builder Firefly Aiming For Second Launch Attempt In May, Raises $75 Million
• Nike Sees Signs Of Recovery In China, Which Could Be A Good Omen For Other Retailers

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell leaves the door open for rate hikes as high as 50 basis points. Gold futures also ended slightly higher at 1935 as investors weigh Powell’s comments. The DOW snapped its five-day winning streak, mostly on Powell’s remarks saying the Fed will take ‘necessary steps’ to address high inflation.

Today’s session retreat is mainly due to investors’ fears that the Fed can not or will not contain inflation stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Also, in the news are, sky-high prices could cause shipping costs to climb well into 2023. Especially true if some analysts predict crude reaching $300 a barrel. The rally in oil prices continued today as the war in Ukraine approaches its first month with no conclusion in sight. WTI crude futures (CL1:COM) climbed to over $112 a barrel after falling to as low $93/bbl last week (from $130 the week before).

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine Is A Catastrophe For Its Oil Industry
• Investors See Growth Opportunities In Femtech Devoted To Women’s Health
• U.S. Space Companies Poised To Benefit As Russia Cuts Ties To Industry, Analyst Says
• “Some F*ckery Is Afoot” – Rogan Slams “Outright Crazy” Media Coverage Of Hunter Biden Laptop Story
• Fed Will Consider More-Aggressive Interest Rate Hikes: Powell

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

WTI crude rose higher today which may be the start of another oil rally as it settled at 104.54 this afternoon. The three major Wall Street indexes rallied for the the third straight session, but remained below the 200 day SMA.

214,000 initial unemployment claims were filed last week, down 15K from the previous week and surprising analyst projections of 220,000. The figures reflect the ongoing tight labor market. More than 11 million jobs remain vacant as employers are reporting difficulties in filling jobs across a number of industries.

While the job market remains hot, the economy still faces strong inflationary headwinds. Inflation rose by 7.9% year-over-year in February, prompting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates for the first time since December 2018.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Toyota, major chip supplier suspend production due to earthquake in Japan
Over 400 companies have withdrawn from Russia. But some Western brands are locked in
Key Words: Arnold Schwarzenegger gets tough with Vladimir Putin
Stocks Squeeze To Best Week Since 2020 Election As Fed Cranks Hawkishness To ’11’

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

The Green Back rose on Saint Paddy’s Day to $97.99 along with U.S. equities on moderately lower green volume. Investors are getting used to the Fed’s actions as stocks jumped for a third day. “We’re on day three of potential gains here, and a lot of investors are going in thinking maybe there are calmer waters,” Jeff Kilburg, the chief investment officer of Sanctuary Wealth, said this afternoon.

Investors digesting the latest news out of Ukraine seem to be getting comfortable with the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting yesterday. However, the down trend line of the three major indexes was broken upwards may be a false flag, leading to more losses.

Wall Street stocks rebounded from early losses this morning as investors considered the Federal Reserve’s economic implications, which some say were surprisingly aggressive.

Crude prices originally rose on initial supply shortages and concerns from the Russia-Ukraine war. Oil prices spike nearly 10% as hopes of Ukraine’s ceasefire fade. As the White House continues to push back against the oil industry over high gasoline prices, WTI and Brent crude rallied today to gain nearly 10% by 3:30 p.m. ET. In addition, oil prices rebounded substantially today after a major selloff earlier in the week.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• A Million New Millionaires Were Created In U.S. Last Year, And The Richest Got Richer, Report Says
• Stocks Go Full Green On St Paddy’s Day Ahead Of Massive OpEx
• Uranium Stocks Soar After U.S. Signals Aid For Nuclear Power
• Russia Says It Made Debt Payments In Dollars, A Move That Would Avert Potential Default: Reports

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Wall Street, gold, cryptos soar as Fed hawkish surprise triggers a countdown to a recession this summer warns strategist. The Federal Reserve approved its first interest rate hike in three years today and expects to see six more rate hikes ahead. Moreover, the Fed has signaled a willingness to sacrifice growth to stop inflation.

WTI settled near where it was yesterday as Oil sheds most of its Russian war premium. However, China’s latest COVID lock down will reduce its demand for crude in the coming months and may lower crude prices further. The USD has slipped fractionally to 95.04 while gold rose moderately to 1928.

The widely followed president and chief economist and strategist of Toronto-based Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., David Rosenberg, said the Fed is trying to beat inflation that will result in the U.S. economy sliding into a recession as early as this summer.

Rosenberg sees evidence of a slowing economy already, which makes the Fed’s timing questionable and only amplifies his recession call.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Chernobyl Could Be Close To New Nuclear Disaster
• Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine Will Lower Car Production By Millions Of Units Over Two Years, S&P Says
• Energy Spending To Hit Record 13% Of Global GDP In 2022
• Beyond First Rate Hike, The Fed Signals That Inflation Fight Is Going To Get Harder

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below

The three major Wall Street indexes closed near their highs in a rebound during the last hour and a half. Stocks end today’s session significantly higher after trading sideways during the late afternoon session. Today’s rise appears to be a relief rally helped in part by falling crude costs and rising prices of tech stocks.

Oil has fallen more than 27% of recent highs and 5% today. Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong have taken the largest plunge since 2008’s financial crisis, and the fall is blamed on concerns of its close affiliation with Russia.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

The World Is Facing A Critical Diesel Shortage
EIA: The U.S. Is Still Energy Independent
Crude Craters, Chinese Tech ‘Dead Cat Bounces’, & VXX Decouples From Reality
Tesla Bought Russian Aluminum To Make Body Shells For Model Y
Bond Report: Treasury Yields Rise To Highest In Almost Three Years As Fed Settles Into Its Two-Day Meeting

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Wall Street opened higher at the opening few minutes. Still, like a rollercoaster, the rest of the session was downhill, finally leveling off in negative territory and trading sideways for most of the late afternoon trading.

Stocks turned lower, and oil prices fell as traders looked ahead to the Fed decision this week. Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy decision amid the ongoing invasion in Ukraine and soaring inflation.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Speculators Massively Cut Their Bullish Bets On Oil
• Russia Looks To Charm India With Cheap Oil Supplies
• Renewable Energy Projects Are Facing Resistance Around The World
• Carnage: China Breaks, Apple Cracks Key Support, Yields Soar As Rate Hike Odds Surge
• U.S. Oil Tumbles More Than 8%, Dips Below $100 Per Barrel

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.